The Speech He Needs to Give
BARNES, FRED
Rudy Giuliani has a problem. It's bigger than he imagines and could doom his presidential prospects. The problem is his pro-choice position on abortion. It's one he cannot finesse by simply saying...
...For social conservatives in the Republican party—millions of them, I suspect—that situation is unacceptable...
...That would involve embracing the pro-life position, as George H.W...
...If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee against Giuliani, that will create a dilemma for social conserva-tives—but not as much of one as the Giuliani camp might think...
...That means abortion would remain legal, limited only by a few minor restrictions...
...Giuliani told me that he and social conservatives "have the same goal in mind, a society with no abortions...
...At the very least, Giuliani should elaborate on his plans for appointing conservatives, Perkins says...
...A recent Rasmussen poll echoes this point...
...This is particularly true of young evangelical Christians...
...Of course this assumes most Nader voters would have voted for Gore over George W. Bush had Nader not been on the ballot...
...And I will speak out as president to discourage anyone from having an abortion...
...When I asked Giuliani last week about the elements of such a statement, he seemed receptive...
...He doesn't need Fred Barnes is the executive editor of The Weekly Standard...
...It's going to take a lot more than he's done before...
...It's a fair assumption...
...But the general election is another matter...
...Giuliani has softened his pro-abortion position...
...Were a few million to bolt in 2008, either by voting for a right-to-life candidate or not voting for any presidential candidate, Giuliani probably could not win in the general election...
...Social conservatives won't vote for Clinton, who they see as intensely pro-abortion...
...I further pledge that if reasonable legislation reaches my desk to reduce the number of abortions, I will sign the legislation or let it become law without my signature...
...Abortions declined in New York when he was mayor, and he suggested the same might happen nationally during a Giuliani presidency...
...Perkins says Giuliani "gives social conservatives very little to be motivated on...
...He says he wouldn't try to repeal the pro-life plank that's been in the Republican platform since 1980...
...In 2000, Ralph Nader won only 2.74 percent of the vote nationally, but he got enough votes in Florida to keep Al Gore from taking the state and becoming president...
...Land believes a pro-life candidate in 2008 would be more formidable than Nader was in 2000...
...It's one he cannot finesse by simply saying he "would keep the balance exactly where it is now...
...Indeed, there is a difference, and that's the core of the problem confronting Giuliani...
...Bush did after Ronald Reagan chose him as his running mate in 1980...
...And they are beginning to speak out forcefully on Giuliani's candidacy...
...And should Congress pass a bill repealing the Hyde amendment, he said he would veto it...
...He's got a hard sell," says Bauer...
...Richard Land, a prominent Southern Baptist leader, says the pro-life presidential effort would be "significant...
...Perkins told reporters last week that he'd like to see a Giuliani "conversion on the road to Des Moines...
...That's where the social conservatives come in...
...to win a majority to capture the presidential nomination, just finish first in most of the contests...
...We have a difference on how to get there...
...He now supports both a ban on partial-birth abortions and the Hyde amendment, which bars federal funding of abortions in most instances...
...The other Republican presidential candidates are speaking there as well, but Giuliani's appearance is the one most likely to affect the presidential race...
...Giuliani will have an opportunity to appeal directly to social conservatives at the Values Voter Summit on October 20 in Washington...
...Giuliani has given no indication he'd be willing to do that...
...And though my personal view is different, I will make no effort whatsoever to change the party's stance and I will oppose any attempt by others to do so...
...He would have to say something like this: I fully accept the fact that the Republican party is a pro-life party...
...He will be introduced at the event by Jonathan Falwell, son of the late Jerry Falwell, and there's a way he could assuage social conservatives and potentially minimize defections to a third party candidate—without reversing his pro-choice position...
...If Giuliani is the Republican nominee—and he's the frontrunner at the moment—a pro-life candidate is bound to run on a third party ticket...
...While Land acknowledges that Giuliani "could minimize the damage with statements like that," he says that, as a matter of conscience, he still couldn't vote for Giuliani...
...The question is how significant...
...There's a line we're not going to cross and that's the life issue...
...ABC, anybody but Clinton, is not enough to attract social conservatives" to vote for Giuliani, Perkins insists...
...Perkins says such a statement would "help" to ease anti-Giuliani feeling among social conservatives...
...They dismiss Giuliani's vow to nominate "strict constructionist" justices to the Supreme Court as, in Perkins's words, "not enough...
...It's not enough to scare them with Hillary," says Bauer...
...They tend to be independents who vote for Republican candidates because they're anti-abortion...
...It found that 27 percent of Republicans would vote for a third party candidate backed by social conservative leaders if Giuliani is the Republican nominee...
...Bauer says it would be "a major step...
...A pro-choice Republican would have little appeal to them, even as the lesser of two evils...
...Social conservatives are a major constituency in the Republican party and for them abortion is a paramount issue...
...In it, he'd probably have to get 50 percent of the vote, or close to it, to defeat Hillary Clinton or any Democrat...
...If elected president, I pledge to do nothing—either by executive order or by signing legislation—that would increase the number of abortions in America or make abortions easier to obtain...
...Given Giuliani's skill as a campaigner, he might overcome the abortion problem in the Republican caucuses and primaries...
...And my administration will defend that legislation in the courts if necessary...
...But social conservative leaders such as Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and Gary Bauer of American Values insist Giuliani is nowhere near to satisfying them...
Vol. 13 • October 2007 • No. 6
