Machine Politics

...Kaufmann, Petrocik, and Shaw devote themselves to debunking trendy political ideas spouted by the media and commentators...

...declared that Bill Clinton’s election had touched off a new era of Democratic rule...

...No wonder they’re Democrats...

...But they have a case, based partly on current political circumstances in which Republicans are retreating and even more on the nature of the new generation: “What does seem clear,” they write, “is that the Democrats’ approach to political and social issues appears more compatible with Millennial attitudes...

...They happen to be voters who are “relatively less interested, less engaged, and less informed about politics [and] are spread out across social groups...

...But the truth is that Democrats don’t yet own the millennial generation, and may never...

...Young voters in the Reagan era were slightly Democratic (5 points) in the 1980s, but leaned Republican (6 points) in the George W. Bush era...

...So there’s reason enough to be skeptical of a realignment led by young folks (or anyone else), but not dismissive...

...In Millennial Makeover, Morley Winograd and Michael Hais argue that this is just the beginning...

...The Internet is not only an easier way to contact young people, it’s cheaper...

...In 1965 a party could reach 80 percent of 18-to-49-year-olds with three 60-second, prime-time television commercials...

...But these are less effective today...

...The political world is about to be shaken to its core by the arrival of these new capabilities for reaching voters, especially the generation that uses them every moment of every day,” Winograd and Hais insist...

...Winograd and Hais adopt the generational theory of history invented by William Strauss and Neil Howe that is too complicated to go into here...

...Their time has come and, as luck would have it, right in line with the Strauss-Howe theory...

...Barack Obama’s presidential campaign is the reigning example...

...In 1992 Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr...

...Not empirically true, the authors point out...

...BY FRED BARNES You’ve heard this before...

...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...

...As for the notion that a big voter turnout favors Democrats, that’s true only if the electoral mood is going their way...

...In 1972, with 18-to-21-year-olds permitted to vote for president for the fi rst time, George McGovern thought a tidal wave of young people would elect him president over Richard Nixon...

...The Vietnam generation, now 46 to 65 years old, gave Democrats a 24-point advantage in the 1960s, but by 2004 the lead had shrunk to 8 points...

...At least for now, I’d add...

...So far, their voting habits have been shaped by an unpopular Republican president, a scandalridden Republican Congress, and an Iraq war without victory in sight (until recently...

...America is about to experience another electoral upheaval, or realignment, just as it has throughout its history...

...In short, parties have, by far, the greatest impact on the outcome of elections...

...The rise of millennials is the hot new story in politics, touted by the media and enthusiastically embraced by Democrats...

...In the real life of elections, “a predisposition to favor one of the parties . . . remains a dominant infl uence on the political behavior of Americans...

...Two years later, Republicans won both houses of Congress and numerous governorships and state legislatures in a historic landslide...

...Democrats are far ahead of Republicans in using these tools, both to connect with voters and raise money...

...All of this sounds fi ne until Winograd and Hais get to the shaky foundation on which their realignment scenario rests: “Once individuals take on a party identifi cation,” they write, “they don’t often change it and, as a result, a rising new generation spearheads major shifts in party identifi cation and the political realignment that fl ows from it...

...The millennial generation, consisting of those born since 1982, is the largest such cohort in history, bigger than the Baby Boomers (born from 1946 to 1964) and not as conservative as Generation X (1964 to 1982...

...Political elites and activists are polarized, but rankandfi le voters are not...

...Suffi ce it to say, the millennials (aka Generation Y) fi t the theory perfectly as civic-minded young people who are socially tolerant, optimistic, academically accomplished, supportive of activist government, and surprisingly partisan...

...No other factor comes close...

...And the modern gender gap wasn’t caused by women leaving the Republican party...

...That young voters often drift to the right as they get older is a widely acknowledged phenomenon...

...One predicts the future, the other deconstructs the conventional wisdom of politics...

...History suggests,” according to Winograd and Hais, “that those who fi nd ways to integrate the new technology with existing tactics to produce multi-faceted campaigns that reach all voters will be especially successful in future elections...

...For millennials, these are the preferred channels for news and information and for communicating with friends...

...Nor do swing voters come from defi nable demographic groups like soccer moms or offi ce park dads...

...The test will come when they’re confronted with a failed Democratic president or a reviled Democratic Congress, or both at once...

...McGovern lost by 23.2 percentage points...

...What more could you ask for...

...Young people in their late teens and early 20s are ready to vote like never before...

...How so...

...But Republicans shouldn’t panic yet...

...And millennials, in their initial surges to the polls, voted slightly Democratic in 2004 and overwhelmingly (60 percent) in 2006...

...Both are California Democrats with extensive political experience, and they indulge at times in Democratic spin...

...Political projections like this have a history...

...Usually turnout is “very nonpartisan...

...Indeed, this could happen...

...What’s particularly important is their technological savvy...

...But if you’d rather concentrate on electoral politics, Millennial Makeover and Unconventional Wisdom should satisfy...

...In general, Unconventional Wisdom takes the opposite tack from Millennial Makeover...

...The authors of Unconventional Wisdom, three political science professors who specialize in elections, certainly aren’t convinced, nor am I. “We cannot be sure that they will maintain this lopsided support for the Democrats,” they write, “but certainly they start at a point close to the New Deal and Vietnam era voters...

...This has ominous implications...

...We’re talking here about the Internet, YouTube, and iPods, plus the online social networks MySpace and Facebook...

...And they should win, since the evidence is on their side...

...I suspect a critical moment for millennials will come, possibly as early as 2010, when they face a political situation they’ve never experienced as voters...

...One of the hardy perennials of politics is that undecided voters break decisively for challengers over incumbents...

...We’re fl ooded this year with political books, including at least fi ve instructing conservatives and Republicans on how to rethink their ideas and policies...

...They’re a new and different generation, inclined to vote Democratic in large enough numbers to precipitate a political realignment that could make Democrats the majority party for years and years to come...

...They describe the clash as “political scientists versus political analysts,” and it’s no surprise who wins...

...Another myth is that America is politically polarized...

...This “makes for exciting journalism and television commentary,” but political scientists know otherwise...

...Rather, it’s “a direct result of white men moving from the Democrats to the Republicans...

...Republicans once led in fundraising through direct mail to millions of small donors and in winning elections with massive TV advertising...

...They make an especially compelling case against “the notion that elections are generally won by good campaign strategies and that voters are perennially up for grabs...

...Perhaps they will, but Winograd and Hais aren’t unbiased observers...

...Now it would take 117 of these TV spots to achieve 80 percent coverage...

...If Democrats can maintain this initial generational allegiance during the next two presidential elections, they should gain a decisive electoral edge for decades to come...

...Also, what matters most about campaigns is not a candidate’s strategy or the ability to attract undecideds: “It is more common to win an election by disproportionately activating and mobilizing your supporters than by persuading undecided voters,” write Kaufmann, Petrocik, and Shaw...

...My guess is that they’ll begin to abandon the Democrats in droves, as they did during the White House years of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton...