First, Lose Three Straight Elections
BARNES, FRED
First, Lose Three Straight Elections Britain’s Conservatives are fi nally emerging from the wilderness. Republicans can learn from them. BY FRED BARNES London David Cameron, the Conservative...
...Cameron talked about spending nights at the hospital with his disabled son and how he’d come to respect NHS professionals...
...Republicans already know how to do this, though they may have forgotten...
...What I wonder is whether we can really put up with this for another 18 months,” he said...
...Suddenly, everything changed in British politics, this time in the Conservatives’ favor...
...I think there are lessons in the Conservative recovery that Republicans should pay attention to...
...And their hands may be tied on taxes and spending by the declining economy and compromises they’ve already made...
...He put a Muslim woman in his shadow cabinet...
...Holding that lead until the next election in 2010 won’t be easy...
...He made the best of it by handling three crises skillfully: a fl ood, a new outbreak of foot and mouth disease, and a botched terrorist attack on the Glasgow airport...
...Steve Hilton, a PR specialist who’s known Cameron for years, characterized this more personally...
...When Labour lost in the East Glasgow by-election last week, Cameron quickly called for a national election this year...
...They’re where Tories were a decade ago...
...The Conservative share of the vote—31 percent in 1997—had barely increased in the 2001 (32 percent) and 2005 (33 percent) elections...
...The breakthrough at the party conference came with the speech by George Osborne, Cameron’s chief deputy and chancellor in the shadow cabinet...
...A big repositioning exercise takes a big leader,” says Andrew Cooper, a pollster and one of Cameron’s “modernizers...
...Also in 1997, they tried this: “You Can Only Be Sure with the Conservatives...
...As prime minister, Blair was adept at stealing conservative themes...
...Cameron had been Tory leader for two years...
...Labour ran behind the third party, the Liberal Democrats, who got 25 percent...
...That works...
...It’s the domestic equivalent of using soft power in foreign affairs...
...That’s a reasonable concern...
...The quartet of issues adored by the party’s base— skepticism about ceding power to the European Union, tax cuts, curbs on immigration, crime—tended to reinforce the conventional wisdom about Conservatives...
...Go green...
...The nasty party...
...Iain Duncan Smith, an MP and former Tory leader, has taken on the issue of poverty...
...It had been a historic week, and there was better yet to come...
...You can’t hurry it,” says Peter Riddell of the Times, who covered America in the 1980s...
...Cameron vowed that half the Tory candidates in the next election would be women...
...The most influential media institution in Britain, indeed in the world, is the British Broadcasting Company (BBC...
...The party aims to be inclusive...
...Just as important, they’ve become the party of change...
...The lead vanished in a week...
...I don’t think so, and no one I recently talked to in England about the recovery process thinks so either...
...In fact, the Labour party apparatus was preparing for one...
...Conservatives “were up against a superb political tactician almost designed by a skilled set of geneticists to be a thoroughbred politician who could capture Tory votes,” says Michael Gove, a Conservative MP and Cameron adviser...
...He had moved the Labour party toward the political center and stolen nearly all the Tory issues, except what John Hayes, a Conservative member of parliament, calls “fi nancial self-interest...
...In 1997, their slogan was “New Labour, New Danger...
...When Blair stepped down in June 2007 and Gordon Brown, who’d been Chancellor of the Exchequer for a decade, became prime minister, things got no better...
...The use of civic organizations and other nongovernment outfi ts in an anti-poverty crusade should take Britain well beyond Bush’s faith-based initiative...
...A related idea, now a Conservative mantra, is that you have to talk to voters about what they’re interested in, not what you are...
...He, of course, was a well-known Labourite...
...Osborne talked about tax cuts, a subject Cameron had been avoiding...
...He does well, though competing against Brown is a breeze compared with facing Blair...
...In any case, Republicans might consider the idea...
...But with the economy in a slowdown, there may not be much growth or proceeds to share...
...That hurt, but few disputed it...
...Cameron’s stirring, off-the-cuff address to the 2005 Conservative conference had led to his victory in the race for party leader...
...Philippa Stroud suggested they swipe the phrase “social justice” and fi ll it with conservative content...
...And Brown’s government is tottering...
...They managed this, despite grumbling from the conservative base about Cameron’s emphasis on quality-of-life issues...
...The occasion was the Conservatives’ annual conference in the seaside town of Blackpool in northwest England...
...They were, as Cameron adviser Steve Hilton puts it, in a “negative place,” seen by a majority of British voters as out of touch and not very nice besides...
...I think we need an election...
...And not just Republicans here, but political leaders everywhere would look to Britain again for lessons to learn and policies to copy...
...Tories talked openly of the need to “decontaminate” or “detoxify” the party brand...
...He was the opposite of the glib Blair, whose star had fi nally begun to fade...
...This lesson is fundamental...
...Many Republicans believe all that’s required for a robust rebound is a failed Barack Obama presidency...
...The mood was really glum,” Bright says...
...That was during a truckers’ strike in 2000...
...This made sense because she’s executive director of the Centre for Social Justice, another center-right think tank...
...It marked what’s been dubbed the “rebalancing” of the Conservative message, the joining of the old Tory issues with Cameron’s new agenda...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...In 2005, they used “Are You Thinking What We’re Thinking...
...Conservatives attached themselves to some atrocious ones...
...Cameron dealt swiftly with the belief that Conservatives had, in Gove’s words, “a secret agenda to tear up the [National Health Service...
...Given his success, he was expected to call an election in the fall...
...n Forget slogans...
...And Cameron, who’s been talking up marriage since his fi rst speech as Conservative leader, could hardly back away from his proposal to reward married couples with special benefi ts...
...Brown is unlikely to comply, but what if he did and Conservatives won...
...It’s about you...
...It’s helped that Cameron and his cohort are young...
...Our work with the world’s leading behavioural economists and social psychologists is yet more proof that the Conservative party is now the party of ideas in British politics,” Osborne boasted in the Guardian...
...Actually, about 30 percent will be...
...We’re victims of our success,” Osborne told me...
...For instance, it took two more sweeping election defeats—in 2001 and 2005—for the Tories to conclude their old issues (taxes, etc...
...n You need a leader...
...That’s not bad...
...This will be a problem for Republicans if McCain doesn’t win the presidency...
...He’s largely succeeded in it...
...Gove has fashioned a bold school choice agenda to create hundreds of new schools run by parents, businessmen, or nearly anyone who could bring together a group of people committed to running a school...
...The parties differ on numerous issues, but what chiefl y distinguishes them at the moment is the political situations they face...
...Conservatives, unfairly or not, were identifi ed with racism, anti-immigrant bigotry, homophobia, lack of equality for women, and dislike of anyone outside their social milieu...
...They captured 44 percent of the national vote to 24 percent for Labour, an astonishing margin of victory that far exceeded expectations...
...Osborne is 37, Gove is 40, Boris Johnson is 44, shadow defense minister Liam Fox is 46...
...When he declared the next Conservative government would abolish the inheritance tax on estates of less than ?1 million (around $2 million), the audience erupted joyfully...
...That was followed by Cameron’s speech on “why I want to lead our country...
...A nudge,” the authors write, “alters people’s behavior in a predictable way without forbidding any options or signifi cantly changing their economic incentives...
...You had to fi x the brand before you could move forward on issues,” says Nye...
...n ‘Broader ground.’ When I met with Hayes and Gove, Hayes leaned across the table and said those two words were the key to rebuilding the Conservative party, and the Republican party, too...
...Cameron wooed BBC officials and gave special attention to the elite newspapers, the Guardian and the Times...
...When he won the contest for party leader, Cameron’s slogan was “Change to Win...
...For Conservatives, pilfering liberal notions is payback...
...Above: Two homeless men in Hackney...
...He’s eager to use nudges, for instance, to keep people from using credit cards too frequently...
...Above: A Muslim teaching assistant works with pupils at Millfi elds Community School in London...
...Conservatives are inclined to downgrade foreign policy, except to guard against EU power grabs...
...George W. Bush taught them about it with his adoption of the word “compassion,” formerly owned by liberals...
...If Conservatives could pull off all or most of the social agenda—and that’s a big “if ”—Britain would become a different place...
...It was “electrifying . . . a lightning strike,” says Janet Daley...
...Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam’s new book, Grand New Party, sensibly urges Republicans, first and foremost, to connect with working-class whites...
...Conservatives have the political cycle working in their behalf...
...Within a few days, Brown decided against calling an election, a move that caused Labour’s support to collapse and gave Conservatives a further boost...
...Off my trolley...
...Cameron recently said traditional morality must be defended, not avoided out of fear of hurting someone’s feelings or appearing judgmental...
...The concept comes from two University of Chicago professors, Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, who published a book entitled Nudge a few months ago...
...Favoring “social responsibility” doesn’t help much either...
...Cameron responded without hesitation...
...But Conservatives have new issues to talk up...
...You know what some people call us,” she said...
...didn’t work so well anymore...
...Conservatives also had to fi nd a way to concentrate on new issues while, in Gove’s words, “preventing the core [of the party] from fl aking off...
...Then, against all likelihood and with no warning, the tipping point came...
...They’re not ready to bounce back...
...The idea of “nudging,” rather than coercing, has become enormously popular with Tories...
...When foreign secretary Robin Cook left his wife for another woman in 1997, a poll found that a majority of Brits assumed Cook was a Conservative since his behavior was bad...
...And last week, Labour lost one of its supposedly safest seats in a special election in East Glasgow...
...BY FRED BARNES London David Cameron, the Conservative party leader, had the look of a defeated man last October when Martin Bright of the New Statesman spotted him walking, alone, across a hotel lobby...
...The party will be decentralized and lack a national leader...
...Voters weren’t...
...Cameron recently said traditional morality must be defended, not avoided out of fear of hurting someone’s feelings or appearing judgmental...
...I’ve got a few notes, so it might be messy but it will be me.’ Above: Cameron delivers his speech at Blackpool in October 2007...
...He discarded his prepared text...
...Following Brown’s announcement of no election in 2008, they jumped ahead by 5 points...
...n It’s not about ideology...
...Conservatives now emphasize support for families and especially marriage...
...Brown had a reputation as a serious, honest, straightforward leader who’d kept the British economy strong...
...I am afraid it is going to be a bit longer and I haven’t got an autocue and I haven’t got a script,’ he said...
...He’s taken socially liberal positions...
...George Osborne, Cameron’s deputy, is a nudge enthusiast...
...Conservatives were desperate to win and believed he gave them the best chance of winning...
...Only once had Conservatives pulled ahead of Labour in an opinion poll...
...The speech, in one sense, was a reprise...
...But Cameron had room to maneuver...
...Otherwise, Britain will become a “demoralized society...
...In fi ghting poverty and antisocial behavior, Conservatives found they lost the argument if they championed “traditional values” against “social liberalism...
...What worked in Britain may work in America— probably a lot of it...
...It’s a wonderful thing,” he said...
...I’ve heard it suggested that in my fi rst budget I am going to tax people who go to the supermarket,” Osborne said...
...Douglas Murray, who runs the Centre for Social Cohesion, worries that the Conservative party of opposition would not be a conservative party once it took power...
...Conservatives went through three leaders, under whom the party languished, before Cameron took over...
...This has become Tory dogma: The broader the party’s reach of issues, the broader its appeal...
...But in spite of all the changes and reforms and the aggressive outreach to both elite and lower middle class voters, the party appeared no closer to ousting the Labour government...
...Even if McCain wins, he may have little interest in working to revive his party...
...Dave is the change,” he says...
...I’ve just got a few notes, so it might be a bit messy but it will be me...
...He looked like a ghost...
...The wilderness years had been painful, beginning with a blowout in the 1997 election, the worst Conservative defeat since 1832...
...n Social psychology...
...Also, the Conservative plan for welfare reform matches what America did in the 1990s...
...Many voters had grown to loathe Conservatives and weren’t willing to listen to them...
...Republicans have lost one election and have yet to come to grips with the reasons why...
...He is...
...n It takes time...
...He’d embraced new issues like the environment and diversity and even “social justice”— new issues for Conservatives anyway...
...Cameron began to talk incessantly about the environment and global warming...
...They now emphasize support for families and especially marriage...
...Cameron didn’t give up on elites, quite the contrary...
...The Policy Exchange, a center right think tank, is now developing the idea of “compassionate economics...
...Cameron has pretty much fi xed it...
...Conservatives are no longer treated as pariahs...
...Brown’s fi rst months in offi ce were a honeymoon...
...The saying in Britain is that “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose elections...
...Conservatives not only made signifi cant inroads in Wales and in the north of England, Labour’s strongholds, but Boris Johnson, a fl amboyant Tory MP who’d been editor of the right-wing Spectator magazine from 1999 to 2005, was elected mayor of London, ousting leftist “Red Ken” Livingstone...
...The country’s not enamored of the Tories, but they don’t hate them anymore,” said Janet Daley, a political columnist for the Daily Telegraph...
...You don’t have to fi nish a planted question to get a planted answer...
...Cameron has taken socially liberal positions and aims to be inclusive...
...Here are some of the lessons...
...Before last October’s conference, the Tories had trailed Labour by roughly 11 points in opinion polls...
...n Don’t ignore elites...
...What would a Tory government actually do...
...Margaret Thatcher had the knack for reaching these voters...
...Cameron discarded his prepared text at the party conference...
...Republicans face a resurgent Democratic party...
...Daniel Finkelstein, the chief editorial writer of the Times and formerly a Cameron adviser, told me a particularly revealing anecdote about this problem...
...At the fi nal question time of the summer, Brown cut short a Labour member who was blaming British economic problems on foreign countries...
...Labour won in a landslide...
...The problem was with Conservatives, not with conservatism,” says Tory pollster Rick Nye...
...Conservatives had last won a national election in 1992, and then only in a squeaker...
...He publicly congratulated his colleague Alan Duncan on his civil union with a male partner and put a Muslim woman in the shadow cabinet...
...The inclination of Conservatives and Republicans is to appeal to working class voters and give up on educated elites...
...The Conservatives in Britain are, like the Republicans in America, a right of center party...
...Cameron was white-faced...
...Just two weeks ago, he publicly congratulated a member of his shadow cabinet, Alan Duncan, on his civil union with a male partner...
...On May 1, in local elections across England, Wales, and Scotland, Conservatives dealt Labour its worst defeat in 40 years...
...His favorite word is “modern,” as in “the modern Conservative party...
...If Cameron can neutralize the antiConservative media, he stands a good chance of winning a majority,” says Daniel Johnson, editor of the new monthly magazine Standpoint...
...There were things we had to work out of our system,” says Michael Gove, a brilliant political innovator responsible for many of the new Tories’ best ideas and a popular politician described by the Economist as “ferociously charming...
...The Tories have developed new issues like welfare reform and school choice...
...As opposition leader, Cameron competes face-to-face for 30 minutes with the prime minister in the weekly question time in the House of Commons...
...They’ve claimed the education and anti-poverty agendas as their own, plus aggressive welfare reform...
...He’s 41...
...If you mentioned them at all, given the skeptical press, they’d say it’s the same old Tories back again,” Gove says...
...So in 2010, assuming Obama defeats John McCain this November, Republicans will be back on track, fully recovered or close to it...
...Then while stressing environmental concerns, he adopted the slogan, “Vote blue...
...It’s on social policy where Conservatives have staked their claim to be agents of radical change, and indeed they may be...
...Another example: A question about an issue was asked twice in a poll, with the only difference being Conservatives were identifi ed with the issue the second time...
...n Co-opt liberal ends and capture liberal jargon...
...And Brown and Labour were viewed as all but certain to win and remain in power until 2013...
...Naturally he and his advisers are known as “modernizers,” the more persistent of them as “ultra-modernizers...
...I am afraid it is going to be a bit longer and I haven’t got an autocue and I haven’t got a script,” he said...
...Cameron, a former advertising executive with a gift for oratory and marketing, had already improved the party’s image...
...We need change in this country...
...Certainly the “respectable” working class—primarily suburban women and Daily Mail readers—is politically important...
...Conservative social policies consist of using conservative means to achieve progressive ends...
...What do you think I am...
...By the end of the Tory conference in October, Cameron’s gloom had dissolved and the Conservatives were on a roll...
...This year Conservatives have talked about “sharing the proceeds of growth” between tax cuts and spending increases...
...The Conservative advantage over Labour now hovers around 15 percentage points in polls...
...The worst Tory nightmare had a name: Tony Blair...
...Cameron understands “the big tent thing,” says Tim Montgomerie, creator of the influential Tory website ConservativeHome.com...
...The plan to lift the government’s monopoly on schools is bolder than anything that’s been tried in America...
...The issue is “a symbol of modernity,” according to Hilton...
...At the party conference in 2002, an MP named Theresa May made a memorable comment...
...Support fell 30 percent...
...Republicans aren’t that desperate yet...
...Tories still admire Bush’s “compassionate conservatism...
Vol. 13 • August 2008 • No. 44
