Gloomy Republicans
BARNES, FRED
Gloomy Republicans With good reason. BY FRED BARNES First, the good news. Conservatives won a sweeping victory in an enormously important election the week before last. Unfortunately, it...
...There’s never been a better climate, since 1932, for Democrats,” says Bob Beckel, a Democratic consultant...
...House minority leader John Boehner talks about fixing the Republican “brand...
...If the Conservative triumph in Britain last month has any relevance for America, Republicans shouldn’t get their hopes up in 2008...
...Davis’s assessment: “We haven’t done anything the last year and a half to re-do the brand...
...These special elections are not indicative of what’s going to happen this fall,” argues House Republican whip Roy Blunt...
...More than 80 percent of Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction...
...The 2008 election won’t be...
...If it does, it’s not likely to change much...
...McCain must overcome a “generic” presidential preference for a Democratic president of 51 percent to 33 percent (in the WSJ/NBC poll...
...The empirical evidence is well known...
...The anger against congressional Republicans isn’t there,” says Republican congressman Tom Davis of Virginia, who is retiring...
...McCain was also stronger than Obama among independent voters (46 percent to 35 percent...
...Republicans are facing a surge in new Democratic voters, and they are facing defections in a number of states,” he says...
...Now Democrats control Congress...
...Democrats of two Republican House seats in special elections in Illinois and Louisiana...
...Prospects for Republicans in the 2008 election here at home look grim...
...Now Democrats are winning on everything...
...If the next president is a Democrat, Republicans figure they’ll have a chance to win control of the House in 2010, so long as losses this year don’t put them too far behind...
...In a Wall Street Journal/NBC survey last month, John McCain fared better with Republican voters (84 percent to 8 percent) than Barack Obama did with Democrats (78 percent to 12 percent...
...The worst news for Republicans in recent weeks has been the capture by Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...Poorly chosen candidates were responsible for the defeats, Republicans insist...
...Instead, Republicans have focused on “looking out for the president...
...They currently hold 49 Senate seats, but at least 7 of those are in jeopardy this year...
...This was precisely what happened in the months before the 1994 Republican landslide when Republicans won Democratic seats in special elections...
...Democrats won on quality of life...
...The explanation for this seeming paradox is quite simple: The Republican base has shrunk...
...Pollster Frank Luntz, a sharp critic of Boehner’s leadership, believes the Republican image has gotten worse...
...These are terrific numbers for McCain...
...The strategist fears Republican leaders and McCain campaign officials “don’t realize the trouble they’re going to be in...
...Only 41 votes are required for a successful filibuster, but a few Republicans always defect—thus the need for 45...
...But they aren’t enough...
...There have been some improvements in political atmospherics for Republicans...
...Maybe, but success in special elections usually foreshadows success in the next general election...
...In the overall match-up, McCain trailed Obama (43 percent to 46 percent...
...In 2008, there are fewer Republicans...
...The good news for McCain is that 20 percent of Clinton supporters in primary exit polls and other surveys say they’ll vote for him over Obama...
...Now, the bad news...
...In the House, Republicans want to stay within close range of Democrats, who currently have a 36-seat majority...
...But it’s close...
...The generic advantage for a Democratic House is 49 percent to 34 percent (again in the WSJ/NBC poll), which shows the headwind Republicans are running against...
...He notes that John McCain and Barack Obama weren’t the likely presidential nominees six months ago, so the political environment may change in the six months before Election Day...
...It’s the erosion in party affiliation that’s pulling McCain down,” says a Republican strategist, and it could doom his chances of winning the presidency...
...The Republican recovery—what there is of one—is less than two years old...
...Republicans need a minimum of 45 senators to pursue a filibuster strategy and block or alter Democratic legislation...
...It used to be that Republicans won [in polls] on economic and values and foreign policy issues,” he says...
...The 2006 midterm election was framed by intense voter dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq...
...There are three major goals: Hold the White House, avert sweeping House losses, and keep the Senate defeats to four or fewer...
...There’s another piece of polling data that is both intriguing and indicative...
...Indeed they are, which is why Republican expectations for 2008 are modest...
...Davis, however, thinks Republicans have made little headway in improving their tarnished image...
...And the political environment usually prevails...
...Republicans hold 199 seats...
...He’ll have to appeal more strongly than Obama to independents, moderates, and soft Democrats...
...The surge of American troops in Iraq hasn’t turned the war into a Republican asset, but it’s at least blunted it as an effective Democratic talking point...
...I’m not saying they’re helpful...
...Beckel cites, in particular, a huge increase in Democratic voters in 2008 that has widened the party’s advantage in registration by millions of voters...
...Unfortunately, it happened in England, where Boris Johnson won the race for mayor of London and Conservatives trounced Labour all across the country...
...The political environment isn’t as bad as it was in 2006 when Republicans lost both houses of Congress and a lot more...
...It took Conservatives 11 years to recover from their landslide loss to Labour in 1997...
...And President Bush’s job performance rating is stuck in the low 30s, a level of unpopularity that weakens the Republican case for holding the White House in 2008...
...With scandal after scandal involving House Republicans in 2006, the party became the target of voter fury...
...It’s impossible for me to conclude anything other than it’s going to be a Democratic year...
...Democrats have steadily maintained the 10 percentage point lead in voter preference they gained two years ago...
...Democrats regard the unexpected victories in Republican territory as one more indication of a coming landslide...
Vol. 13 • May 2008 • No. 34
