Republicans Root for Obama
BARNES, FRED
Republicans Root for Obama But don’t count Hillary out. BY FRED BARNES Republicans and Barack Obama are far apart ideologically, but they have a common enemy: Hillary Clinton. This explains...
...With proportional distribution of delegates, that’s practically impossible...
...If Hillary wins all three states, it’s hard to imagine the super-delegates denying her the nomination...
...So the nomination, in all likelihood, will be left up to the super-delegates...
...She is...
...That system is all but certain to prevent either candidate from capturing the nomination in the remaining primaries and caucuses...
...But the proportional delegate system keeps this contest going with two candidates who have signifi cant support,” Penn wrote in a memo...
...They get to vote all day...
...About half of them have already endorsed a candidate...
...One is to retain the presidency...
...Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief strategist, has been ridiculed for his rosy analysis of her campaign...
...And his fundraising now dwarfs hers...
...I think that the primary gives people a much better idea of what would happen in the general election...
...If that makes it more diffi cult to keep the White House, so be it...
...They don’t have to show up for a few hours [at a caucus], which means they can’t if they’re working...
...In debates, she constantly fl ashes a fake smile and, when unnerved, unleashes a contrived laugh—aka, the cackle...
...That last claim is dubious...
...I’ll be just really honest with you...
...Governors Ted Strickland of Ohio and Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania are backing Clinton, and their statewide organizations are a signifi cant asset...
...The other is to deny the Clintons—Hillary and Bill— another four (or eight) years in the White House...
...Republicans have two goals in the 2008 race...
...But he’s probably right in claiming that she’d “be en route to being the nominee” if Democrats had a winner-take-all system in their primaries, as Republicans do...
...After she lost the Iowa caucuses to Obama, Bill Clinton complained that caucuses are less democratic than primaries...
...In Texas, Hispanics are a major part of the Democratic electorate...
...Obama is concentrating on Texas...
...It’s true she doesn’t inspire...
...Obama did better in red states that are less important to Democrats in a general election...
...For now...
...And a primary hat trick is not inconceivable...
...For all her unattractiveness as a candidate, Clinton has put together an impressive, and seemingly durable, coalition of women, seniors, Hispanics, and the less-than-wealthy...
...In all three, Clinton starts with an advantage...
...But there are three big primaries at the end of the process—Ohio and Texas on March 4 and Pennsylvania on April 22...
...For obvious reasons, Clinton prefers primaries...
...Nevertheless, many Republicans are rooting for him to knock off Clinton...
...Hillary Clinton is nowhere near as close to losing the Democratic nomination as many in the political community believe...
...But he has two liabilities there...
...And every poll I’ve seen this year shows that Obama would attract far more independents in the general election against a Republican than Clinton would...
...Of these, Clinton leads by 90 delegates—a not insubstantial number...
...In many states, independents are barred from voting in primaries...
...She attracts far smaller and considerably less enthusiastic crowds than Obama does...
...Being spared another President Clinton is reward enough...
...I am more interested in what happens when a large number of people get to vote,” she told reporters...
...This explains why many Republicans look kindly on Obama’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination...
...While he’s shown great skill in organizing strong turnouts in caucus states, he fared less well in primary states, where the turnout is much greater...
...Leaving aside the 796 super-delegates—chiefl y elected and party officials—Clinton or Obama would need to win roughly three-fourths of the delegates in these states to wrap up the nomination...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...Indeed, there’s a growing consensus among both Republican and Democratic strategists that Obama would be the stronger general election candidate...
...Thwarting the Clintons won’t be easy...
...Just winning two of three would probably make her the hotter candidate—assuming she leads Obama in popular votes over the entire campaign...
...The states with primaries and caucuses over the next few weeks favor Obama, which means he’ll likely take a narrow lead in delegates...
...In fact, Hillary Clinton incorrectly claimed last week that her husband had never won a caucus state in 1992 on his way to the Democratic nomination...
...Winning a primary isn’t a reliable indicator of a candidate’s strength in a general election...
...But Clinton has already survived two crushing defeats, fi rst in Iowa, then in South Carolina, only to rise again on Super Tuesday with a string of lopsided victories in blue states the Democratic nominee must carry in November...
...Obama needs to steal super-delegates who’ve endorsed her to win...
...He may be more liberal than Clinton, but by almost every other yardstick he’s a more appealing candidate...
...Clinton’s strategy: a strong fi nishing kick...
...And he’s not well organized among Hispanic voters...
...In the California primary last week, she lost the white vote to Obama by 49 percent to 43 percent, yet won the state in a nearlandslide: 52 percent to 42 percent...
Vol. 13 • February 2008 • No. 22
