Hillary's Delegate Condition
Mccormack, John
Hillary’s Delegate Condition Why the Democratic party’s rules may lead to a brokered convention. BY JOHN MCCORMACK “I do believe that this primary will not settle our nominee,” Democratic...
...If Super Tuesday results in a stalemate between Obama and Clinton, the key to the nomination will likely be the “super-delegates”—796 Democratic party leaders, who make up 20 percent of the delegates at the Democratic convention...
...If the super-delegates don’t break decisively in favor of one candidate following the 17 primaries and caucuses held between February 6 and March 11, then the Democratic race could turn into a behind-the-scenes scrum for super-delegates that lasts all the way to the convention, with Obama and Clinton alternately twisting the arms and groveling at the feet of congressmen, DNC members, John Edwards, and Bill Richardson...
...Some on the left have criticized the super-delegates— which were created in the 1980s to give the Democratic establishment the power to quell possible McGovernite insurrections—for being anti democratic...
...Furthermore, almost 90 percent of the super-delegates are members of Congress, governors, and Democratic National Committee members who will all feel pressure to vote according to the preference of their constituents...
...Even if the popular vote in a congressional district with four delegates ended up 60 percent to 40 percent, Obama and Clinton would each get two delegates...
...Indeed, a candidate could win the 2,025 delegates required to become the nominee with the support of 80 percent of super-delegates and only a little over 40 percent of delegates actually chosen by primary voters...
...Whether that happens in February or June, however, is anyone’s guess...
...Congressman Clyburn believes that a brokered convention might help the Democrats put aside the primary campaign infi ghting and “put together a ticket that will deliver us victory in the electoral college...
...He lost the statewide popular vote by six points but racked up 13 delegates to Clinton’s 12 because he won more congressional districts...
...Devine says that though superdelegates may be party leaders, they are in effect “followers—they wait to see what voters do” and support “who’s ahead and who’s likely to win...
...At the Nevada caucuses, these rules favored Obama...
...But now, John McCain is poised to lock up the Republican nomination...
...While about one-third of Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally according to the statewide popular vote, the rest are awarded proportionally by congressional district, with the more populous and heavily Democratic districts receiving a greater number of delegates...
...In districts with three or fi ve delegates, a one-point win would have the same effect as a 20point win on that district’s delegate allocation...
...Hillary Clinton might fi ght to seat the delegations from Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for breaking DNC rules by moving up their primaries...
...And it’s a real possibility that the Democrats will head to their convention in August without a presumptive nominee...
...If you have two candidates who . . . get more than 30 percent of the popular vote, then those two candidates are going to essentially split the delegates...
...one and three to two...
...These are all fights that party leaders want to avoid, which is why the super-delegates are likely to anoint a nominee before the convention...
...Even though he won in Florida by only 5 percentage points, McCain received all of the state’s 57 delegates...
...You have the serious potential of having the scenario where no candidate is able to coalesce a majority of delegates,” says veteran Democratic consultant Tad Devine, who was in charge of delegate operations for Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis...
...BY JOHN MCCORMACK “I do believe that this primary will not settle our nominee,” Democratic congressman Jim Clyburn said on January 25...
...If the delegate race is really close, the nomination could even hinge on one small contingent of 23 super-delegates: “distinguished party leaders” like Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, Tom Daschle, and Terry McAuliffe...
...they would split, two to John McCormack, a Collegiate Network fellow, is an editorial assistant at THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...But it could just as easily lead to greater division and rancor...
...For months, speculation about a brokered convention centered on the fractious Republican party, while the Democrats were expected to unite early on behind a frontrunner who would focus on taking back the White House from George W. Bush...
...In contrast, Clinton’s poll-defying two-point win over Obama in New Hampshire actually resulted in a tie for delegates: Obama and Clinton each got nine...
...But the voters still have a lot of infl uence over super-delegates...
...I think our nominee will be settled at our convention...
...McCain is in a much stronger position than Hillary Clinton because many of the Republican primaries deliver all of their delegates to the popular vote winner, while every Democratic primary awards its delegates proportionally...
...If Clinton wins the popular vote in a slew of states by single-digit margins on Super Tuesday, she and Obama will still be neck and neck in the delegate race...
...There could also be a fi ght regarding the state parties’ selection of 76 “addon” super-delegates—minority and/or female delegates designated according to DNC rules to compensate for the fact that too many super-delegates are white males...
Vol. 13 • February 2008 • No. 21
