The Giuliani Implosion
CONTINETTI, MATTHEW
The Giuliani Implosion From frontrunner to also-ran in eight short weeks. BY MATTHEW CONTINETTI It’s a good thing for Rudy Giuliani that he believes in the power of optimism. These days his...
...He took 4 percent of caucus-goers who said they were Republicans, and just 1 percent of independents...
...But it is also moderate-to-liberal in many respects...
...He visited New Hampshire more than any other state...
...Giuliani’s highest number in the entrance poll—16 percent—came from the 7 percent of caucus-goers who said the most important candidate quality was “electability...
...All this failed to move his numbers...
...According to the New Hampshire exit poll, not only did Giuliani lose the pro-life vote, he also lost the pro-choice vote—a surprising result, since he is the only pro-choice Republican running this cycle...
...Matthew Continetti, associate editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD, edits the CAMPAIGN STANDARD at weeklystandard.com...
...Meanwhile, the success of the surge policy in Iraq revived John McCain’s candidacy, drawing national security hawks away from Giuliani...
...For most of 2007 the former New York City mayor led the Republican field in national polls, some state polls, and money raised from individual contributors...
...Giuliani performed little better in New Hampshire, where he fi nished fourth, two percentage points behind former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and one point ahead of Representative Paul...
...This is, in the end, what hurt Giuliani in Iowa and New Hampshire...
...Those days are over...
...On the campaign trail, Giuliani is asked most often about his campaign strategy of not seriously competing in all the contested primaries and caucuses before Florida, then using the momentum from winning that contest to do well in large states like California and New York that vote on February 5. Giuliani says he isn’t worried...
...The indictment of former New York City police commissioner and Giuliani prot?g...
...And Mike Huckabee’s appearance on the national stage provided social conservatives with a likable champion on the issues they think are most important...
...But the social liberalism turned off conservatives, and the foreign policy and economic conservatism turned off moderates and liberals...
...Conceding New Hampshire, he said, “Maybe we’ve lulled our opponents into a false sense of confi dence now...
...His campaign is pulling resources from this week’s contests in Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada to focus on the January 29 Florida primary, where polls still show him in the lead (by a shrinking margin...
...These days his campaign needs some...
...Most independents who voted in the Iowa Republican caucuses voted for Ron Paul...
...You have to be engaged in the dialogue,” says a consultant...
...Maybe” is right...
...Which means that Giuliani can’t discuss his achievements without creating a space for his opponents to bring up those parts of his record —guns, immigration—that conservatives most dislike...
...The news late last week that senior staff are working without pay put the campaign on the defensive, causing it to release cash-on-hand figures showing it isn’t broke...
...Yet the “windshear” doesn’t account for the horrible spate of publicity for Giuliani beginning in mid-November— after which publicity the Giuliani campaign began to tank...
...He appeared to have convinced at least some conservatives that his opinions on abortion rights (he’s for them) and gun control (he supports “reasonable restrictions”) were less important than his tough stance against terrorism, his unabashed support for supply-side economics, and his promise to appoint what he called “strict constructionist” judges to the federal bench...
...Instead he looked backward, discussing his record in New York...
...Gadfl y antiwar congressman Ron Paul won 7,000 more votes than Giuliani...
...And Giuliani was left alone...
...Clinton was also Giuliani’s chief foil on the campaign trail, providing the mayor with an opponent against whom he could rally Republicans who might otherwise have been wary of the thrice-married New Yorker...
...On caucus night Giuliani campaign aides circulated a research document arguing that the Iowa GOP caucuses are unrepresentative of the electorate in Iowa and nationwide...
...In order to correct for his social liberalism, Giuliani tacked as far right on national security and economic issues as he could...
...So the Giuliani campaign abandoned its New Hampshire effort...
...He lost Iowa and New Hampshire, fi nishing nowhere close to fi rst...
...And he did little better among non-evangelicals, drawing only 6 percent support...
...Giuliani rarely was...
...That record is impressive, of course...
...The Giuliani campaign once hoped to fi nish a surprise third in Iowa, but ended up in sixth place with 4 percent of the vote...
...People close to the campaign say Mitt Romney’s attacks on Giuliani on guns and immigration doomed the former mayor...
...Only 8 percent of them supported Giuliani...
...Here, too, Giuliani’s performance was lackluster among all demographics...
...In this view, Hillary Clinton’s missteps in the Democratic race removed the chief rationale for Giuliani’s candidacy—that he was the best candidate to face down the Clinton machine...
...Fred Siegel, author of a Giuliani biography and an editor at City Journal, says the former mayor’s fate is largely out of his control: “Rudy got caught in a windshear—the fall of Hillary, and the rise of Huckabee and McCain...
...Poll after poll showed that Republicans believed Giuliani was the GOP’s best chance to hold the White House in 2008...
...His campaign spent $3 million in advertising in New Hampshire during the last two months of 2007...
...Giuliani drew support from only 6 percent of independents...
...Mitt Romney drew the most support from those voters, however, with 51 percent...
...In about eight weeks Giuliani has gone from frontrunner to second-tier candidate...
...The most liberal Republican in the fi eld had the support of only 9 percent of self-described liberals voting in the Republican primary...
...According to the exit poll, an overwhelming majority of voters in the Republican primary said they were worried about terrorism...
...Bernard Kerik on corruption charges, and a report in the Politico that the mayor’s offi ce may have paid improperly for trips Giuliani took to visit then-girlfriend Judith Nathan in the Hamptons, forced the mayor into a defensive crouch...
...While the Kerik story has subsided and an investigation by the New York Times showed the mayor’s offi ce paid for the Hamptons trips properly, Giuliani was unable to recover before the Iowa caucuses...
...What explains Giuliani’s slide into irrelevance...
...Meanwhile, Giuliani often seemed disconnected from the national political debate...
...The result in Iowa wasn’t anything for Giuliani to brag about—and that’s putting it charitably...
...The news late last week that senior staff are working without pay put the Giuliani campaign on the defensive, causing it to release cash-on-hand fi gures showing it isn’t broke...
...The New Hampshire defeat was particularly biting, because Giuliani made a play for the state in late 2007...
...According to the Iowa entrance poll, Giuliani won 2 percent of the caucusgoers who said they were born-again or evangelical Christians...
...They had to argue that because Giuliani’s defeat in Iowa was comprehensive...
Vol. 13 • January 2007 • No. 18
