Slugging It Out
HAYES, STEPHEN F.
Slugging It Out John McCain reclaims the lead by sticking to his guns on Iraq BY STEPHEN F. HAYES Peterborough, New Hampshire Wearing the uniform of the young Republican male—navy sport coat,...
...As the airplane departed Pontiac for Charleston, McCain wandered back to a clearing between the emergency exits on each side of the plane...
...But McCain had two major problems: the Iraq war and conservatives...
...It was a political pitch to the South Carolinians he wants to vote for him, yes...
...Once inside, McCain told the crowd that he was happy to be there, and he looked like he meant it...
...This was like doubling-down on 12...
...McCain’s poll numbers slowly began to move...
...At that debate, McCain had poked fun at Romney’s fl ip-fl ops by saying: “We disagree on many issues, but I agree that you are the candidate of change...
...McCain’s second quarter fi nance numbers were abysmal, and when they were released, senior campaign offi cials traded blame anonymously in the media...
...The proposal did not sit well with some of his colleagues, who believed McCain was fi nished politically if he tried to distance himself from Iraq...
...At the Fox News debate in New Hampshire on January 6, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, both candidates who refused to endorse the surge when it was fi rst proposed, vied to see who could appear more pro-surge...
...A few months ago Lindsey and I, actually it was about a year ago, while we were in Iraq...
...We were the living dead...
...But McCain refused...
...I’d have had them out yesterday...
...McCain had come to Iraq with confi dence in Petraeus, and he left with even more...
...To his left, hanging onto the railing of a short stairway leading up to the stage, Fox News Channel’s Bill Hemmer crouched next to former congressman Charlie Bass and congressman Chris Shays, craning his neck to get a better view of the candidate...
...McCain was not scheduled to arrive for another 50 minutes...
...He was asked about the possibility of New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg entering the race as an independent, and McCain had nice words to say about his potential rival...
...And Rudy Giuliani, who snatched the frontrunner mantle from McCain earlier this year, has handed it back by skipping Iowa, fading expensively in New Hampshire, and waiting for Florida...
...Dude, how many drugs did you take this morning...
...Congressional Democrats were intent on making Iraq the central debate of the summer, and congressional Republicans were telling the White House—in private and sometimes in public—that they could not stop their opponents from passing legislation calling for a withdrawal of American troops...
...On January 10, the president announced a change in Iraq strategy that included a “surge” of more troops, something McCain had been calling for consistently in one way or another since before the war...
...Yeah, I’d bomb Pakistan,” he says, mocking Democrats...
...The grounds of the famous military college were virtually empty other than a couple of female cadets in matching gray shirts and navy shorts returning from a jog...
...A more sober assessment of his predicament suggests the Straight Talk Express may be up on blocks before 2008 arrives—and that, in turn, raises a blunt question for a man who prizes bluntness above all: Why not walk away right now and avoid further humiliation...
...McCain rolled his eyes and shook his head...
...I asked him: Why don’t you stop saying that...
...And it turns out he was exactly right...
...But they understand on an intensely personal level how quickly things can change...
...recalls Charlie Black, a senior McCain adviser...
...In the fi rst quarter of 2007, McCain raised about $12.5 million, less than both Romney and Giuliani...
...Listening to McCain respond to questions, it is clear that he thinks his national security credentials will be his greatest asset in the fi nal weeks of this Republican primary and going forward in the general election...
...He engages journalists at every opportunity...
...McCain made a couple of light jokes, but he seemed much more serious than he had earlier in the day, at his stops in Michigan...
...I don’t think that’s partisan...
...They cannot afford to nominate a presidential candidate whose name has become synonymous with the surge...
...In early 2007, McCain’s campaign seemed to be humming along nicely...
...I don’t know how you could nominate a pro-choice VP without a real backlash from the party,” he said, specifi cally raising concerns that a pro-choice vice presidential nominee would run counter to a “fundamental” principle of the Republican party...
...Someone asked if Bloomberg would make a good vice president, and McCain thought aloud about the potential positives and negatives of such an arrangement...
...The young man dashed off, still looking anxious...
...Of that $12.5 million, slightly above $5 million was left, and McCain had accumulated almost $2 million in debt...
...Hey, Steve...
...The speed and severity of the unraveling of John McCain’s bid for the presidency is nearly impossible to capture,” wrote John Heilemann in New York magazine...
...On a typical campaign trip, time with the candidate— “the principal,” in campaignspeak—is severely restricted...
...Reporters yelled over one another and the candidate...
...A couple of people in the crowd even snickered...
...At one point in New Hampshire, a McCain press aide notifi ed a reporter that it was his turn for time with the senator...
...Responding to another question, he singles out Hillary Clinton and her claim last fall that to concede the surge was working would require “a willing suspension of disbelief...
...You know Lindsey...
...The prospects for improvement were bleak...
...How my line about change in the last debate was spontaneous,” he said, rolling his eyes in self-mockery...
...Undeterred, and with very little to lose, McCain decided to gamble...
...And at the ABC News debate the previous night, Romney paused from his nearconstant attacks on McCain to give him credit for his early support of the surge...
...When he was fi nished, McCain shook hands on the way to the back of the room, where he was quickly engulfed by reporters, cameras, and microphones...
...McCain spoke just above a whisper and was very hard to hear unless you happened to occupy a spot directly in front of him...
...The war was not going well...
...McCain saw that I was perplexed...
...Name one person you can’t beat,” he said, before listing the candidates one after another...
...He said, ‘No...
...I think they’ve gotten themselves out on the far left on national security...
...This second group— which included gregarious longtime aide Mark Salter, Senator Lindsey Graham, and aides Dan McKivergan, Brett O’Donnell, and Randy Scheunemann—urged McCain to invest even more heavily in Iraq—to “own the surge,” as one memo from O’Donnell put it...
...He shrugged, waved his hand, and said, “I’ve got to do some work...
...As the campaign cast about for a policy focus, Schriefer presented plans to make McCain the candidate of energy policy...
...Slugging It Out John McCain reclaims the lead by sticking to his guns on Iraq BY STEPHEN F. HAYES Peterborough, New Hampshire Wearing the uniform of the young Republican male—navy sport coat, white oxford, khakis, and loafers—a fl ustered staffer for John McCain turned to a policeman standing at the back of the Peterborough Town Hall...
...The McCain campaign leadership is confi dent, not cocky, about the prospect that their man will accept the Republican nomination in Minneapolis this summer...
...According to Graham, he ordered them to stop and then made a series of phone calls fi ring several of his closest advisers and asking many others to work without pay or at least for a steep discount...
...And he was enlisting many of the Republican party’s biggest stars in his cause, with top quality consultants and advisers and an early wave of endorsements...
...We’re all responsible for what we say...
...McCain took responsibility for the problems publicly and mandated that the campaign spend no more than $1.5 million per month, at least for the time being...
...People are beginning to think you are going to lose...
...asked one man he accosted...
...They go through a checkpoint, they were waved through, they got out of the car, walked away, blew up the car...
...How could you possibly determine that when it depends on how they come out of this campaign...
...Because candidates speak so infrequently their words take on added importance, and journalists spend much of their time trying to trip candidates up or force them to say something that will make news...
...Petraeus, always cautious, was careful not to oversell his gains...
...More often, he talks about things that other politicians prefer to avoid...
...But with top strategists leaving campaign headquarters in bunches and advisers in key states going with them, the campaign was in meltdown...
...And they still haven’t admitted we were right...
...There was Joe Klein from Time magazine and Jeff Greenfi eld from CBS and Dana Bash from CNN...
...Back in the United States, he sharpened his attacks on critics of the Iraq policy—including Hillary Clinton and MoveOn.org—and resolved to block any and all Democratic efforts to withdraw troops...
...He has a degree of clairvoyance that I am not gifted with...
...But he spent lots of money to raise money, and he racked up significant expenditures on his growing team of campaign consultants and staff...
...I know this: If I was debating her you’d certainly hear that phrase again—you’d have to ‘suspend disbelief in order to believe that Petraeus strategy is succeeding.’ I’d say, ‘How’s your disbelief factor today?’ I mean really...
...It was so spontaneous that you started laughing before you even fi nished delivering it,” I reminded him...
...And the Washington press corps was virtually unanimous that the Iraq war meant political disaster for the GOP...
...Campaign manager Rick Davis embraced this view...
...His chief rival to this point, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, is weakened after two losses...
...The physicians have pulled up the sheet...
...He is the frontrunner...
...What’s the capacity of this place...
...Few national media outlets were interested in McCain after an abysmal summer that left him with a depleted staff, very little money, and dwindling support in the polls...
...Following stops in Grand Rapids and Pontiac, Michigan, where voters will cast ballots on January 15, McCain pushed on to South Carolina, where the Republican primary will be held four days later...
...It was 11:25 A.M...
...Inside McCain’s campaign, there were deepening divisions on nearly everything: campaign strategy, fundraising, and, importantly, policy...
...Conservative groups such as the Club for Growth criticized McCain for his opposition to the Bush tax cuts...
...I want the troops out...
...They mixed with supporters of Dennis Kucinich (who had an event nearby) and Ron Paul (whose supporters were everywhere...
...McCain, who is legendarily superstitious, told reporters traveling with him last week that he has been known to contribute to the economy of Las Vegas, Nevada...
...The situation on the ground in Iraq improved dramatically, and by early fall some of the most outspoken opponents of the surge had to concede that it was working...
...His remarks focused almost exclusively on national security, and he made them without lurching from subject to subject, as he sometimes does in his extemporaneous stump speech...
...Black was right...
...Still, in methodical fashion he laid out for the senators why he was confi dent that his changes had created the conditions for a dramatic turnaround in Iraq...
...Ever...
...Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, has seen his postIowa momentum slowed by New Hampshire and by the emerging reality that his motivational-speaker bromides cannot forever hide his ignorance of foreign policy and national security...
...It was like, John who...
...A few moments later, someone asked McCain about comments Lindsey Graham had made earlier in the day...
...Back in July, several polls had him in fourth place nationally, behind Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson...
...The words sounded almost childish, like something that might come out of the mouth of a three-year-old trying hard to sound emphatic but incapable of coming up with words to do the job...
...I know,” McCain laughed...
...You know one thing about Lindsey, he’s always right...
...No, I want them out today...
...That’s just a difference, a fundamental difference, about where we are on Iraq...
...McCain was furious...
...The speech was short, and McCain took more than a dozen questions from the audience...
...Several McCain advisers thought such a legislative defeat was inevitable and recommended that McCain reverse himself and lead Republicans away from Iraq...
...The South Carolina senator had suggested that it would be better for McCain to face Barack Obama in a general election than Hillary Clinton...
...I’d rather lose an election than lose a war...
...He is quick with a joke and likes to make fun of the reporters covering him...
...When Davis returned a few minutes later, he joked about the candidate’s proclivity to say things he shouldn’t...
...For all intents and purposes, McCain’s campaign is over,” Cook continued...
...Campaign adviser Steve Schmidt suggested that they call the effort the “No Surrender Tour,” and McCain started using a new line in his stump speech...
...As that debate continued out of the public eye, another fi ght made the papers...
...Virtually everyone regarded McCain’s position as disastrous...
...Graham posed a question to McCain...
...Then he wandered off leaving McCain alone with the journalists...
...His voice was fi lled with disgust...
...We’re talking about spontaneity...
...So that’s where I’m at, and it’s why nearly 4,000 American lives have been sacrifi ced...
...It would be pleasingly counterintuitive to declare that McCain, at this, his lowest moment, is now poised for a miraculous recovery,” Heilemann continued...
...But McCain’s way of engaging with journalists is so different from that of other candidates that it is worth dwelling on it for a moment...
...Anytime a typical candidate agrees to speak to the press, it’s a big deal, and journalists are often competitive about access and proximity...
...McCain got a respite from all of this in, of all places, Iraq...
...So much has been written about McCain’s relationship with the media that it is hard to say anything fresh...
...There were no seats in the emergency exit row, so there was a lot of space to stand around and chat...
...When I came to see him in New Hampshire a week before the “No Surrender Tour” that would help reinvigorate his campaign, there was no Straight Talk Express, just a plain white Ford Econoline van with two McCain bumper stickers...
...But it also felt like a promise McCain was making to his country, to never surrender, and to himself...
...Democrats (especially the candidates for the nomination) began derisively referring to the change in strategy as “the McCain surge...
...McCain’s problems, exacerbated by his stubbornness on Iraq and relatively forgiving views on illegal immigration, meant that he dominated the news about the presidential race for several weeks...
...Down the street, a corpulent Kucinich supporter, wearing a Flavor Flav-sized button featuring a sassy Dennis Kucinich headshot, chased would-be voters carrying a wooden stake with three Kucinich yard signs duct-taped together...
...This infl uential group included Bush 2000 alumni Russ Schriefer and Terry Nelson, as well as pollster Bill McInturff and top McCain strategist John Weaver...
...In Baghdad, McCain and Graham spent time with General David Petraeus and received an on-the-ground assessment of the surge, which had begun in full force just one month earlier...
...A proponent of “vertical leadership,” Huckabee seems to believe that a good attitude and pleasant platitudes will help him reach higher altitudes...
...Things would change dramatically by the time people actually started casting their votes in January...
...Other big name journalists from big name media outlets had come to see McCain...
...I have no idear,” the cop responded...
...Stephen F. Hayes is a senior writer at THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani were getting precisely the same advice...
...That he also believes this is his own competitive advantage over the four Republicans he must beat to win the presidential nomination became clear shortly after we landed in Charleston...
...In the back of the spacious hall is a set of risers with a large bank of cameras...
...Thanks to one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent political history, John McCain is now back to exactly where he started this race and exactly where many people thought he would be from the beginning...
...I mean it,’” says Black, with a laugh...
...I don’t think there’s anything wrong with ventilating that issue...
...They were wrong...
...I think you know that we are in a struggle with an enemy that is implacable and unpardonable and they will commit any evil, any atrocity, to try to gain their way and destroy everything we stand for...
...No, I want them out next week...
...We all thought that was going to happen,” says one reporter for a prominent newsweekly who spent time with McCain during those days...
...If they’ll kill their own kids, what do you think they’ll do to our kids...
...Members of Congress who had once enthusiastically endorsed McCain were now refusing to return his calls...
...Not everyone liked it...
...I’ll catch up with him later...
...So I think our strength is national security...
...He sometimes says that he does not want to talk about a subject, but this is rare, and chances are good that if you ask him again an hour or two later, he will answer your question...
...As spring gave way to summer, things got worse...
...The rapidly growing crowd of McCain supporters, many of them wearing duck boots and North Face outdoor gear, spilled onto the street and stood perched on snow drifts...
...The McCain crowd struck up a chant of “Mac is back” and waited for a glimpse of the 2008 version of the Straight Talk Express...
...says Graham...
...McCain began talking with several reporters, and the group soon expanded...
...Paying bills and winding down—not strategizing, organizing, and getting a message out—will be the order of the day...
...But at that moment something very powerful was coming from the former prisoner of war who endured severe torture after repeatedly refusing to accept offers from his North Vietnamese captors to release him...
...Movement conservatives have long mistrusted McCain, and his early campaign did little to change their perceptions...
...Believe me, they’ll cut off the head of a person just because they’re American and Jewish and put it on the Internet...
...In early July, he traveled there with Graham, who sought to buck up his friend...
...By April there were signs of growing trouble...
...Like many blackjack players, he considers the number 11 very lucky...
...Pro-life groups were angry about his aggressive intervention in a campaign fi nance case involving Wisconsin Right to Life, and most other conservatives shared their frustrations with McCain over his willingness to regulate political speech with campaign finance laws...
...He was clearly energized by the size of the crowd...
...A phone call with outside policy advisers, called to reassure them that the campaign would continue, had only one participant...
...For the candidate, a press conference is often a matter of avoiding mistakes, more than a chance to communicate a message to the public...
...Rick Davis, who appeared mildly concerned about the direction of the discussion, jumped in to clarify...
...Ahhhhh, thanks Lindsey...
...And there were two guys in a car with two small infants in the back seat...
...His constant criticism of the conduct of the war—he calls it “mismanagement”— reinforced with many conservatives his reputation as a maverick, even as disloyal...
...He added: “I will never, ever, ever, ever, ever surrender...
...Even though these adjustments allowed McCain to claim that the White House was fi nally listening to him, they came at a price...
...The audience murmurs in horror...
...the executors of the estate are taking over...
...None of this is true with McCain...
...McCain was dead...
...McCain was raising money at a respectable, if not spectacular, pace...
...On the plane, when I joined the circle around McCain, who looked relaxed in a navy suit, a blue shirt, and a light blue tie, he stopped the conversation to bring me up to speed...
...By late December, McCain was leading one national poll and was competitive in all the others...
...It arrived—with another bus for press behind it—to wild cheering...
...What’s he doing now, naming his vice president...
...Democrats, he says, lack the experience and judgment to govern in these times...
...He and Rudy Giuliani were the best-known Republicans in the race, and the two men almost always appeared at the top of national polls...
...The two men agreed that the fi eld was eminently beatable, so long as no one “caught fi re,” as Graham puts it today...
...the Saturday before the New Hampshire primary, and the Peterborough Town Hall was full...
...I know...
...Instead of shouting questions to him from the back of a pack of national journalists, or even sitting with him in a group interview aboard the Straight Talk Express, as reporters do now, a campaign staffer casually asked me if I wanted to join McCain and his family for Thai food in Concord...
...McCain is leading in some polls taken in each of the next two primary states, Michigan and South Carolina...
...The result...
...In November 2006, Bush had cashiered Donald Rumsfeld, something else McCain had been pushing for more than two years...
...He is so accessible that reporters often decide to sit out a chat with the candidate on the plane or take a pass on an opportunity to ride with him on the “Straight Talk Express...
...Just as McCain had owned the “reform” issue in 2000, the thinking went, he could make his stand in the early primary states on energy...
...Republicans’ intensity of support has waned as the war has become an albatross around their party’s neck,” wrote Charlie Cook, the highly regarded political analyst...
...Davis asked, shaking his head...
...Things were different back in early September...
...Having pulled many of his resources from South Carolina and Florida, Romney is betting his candidacy on a win in Michigan, the state his father once governed...
...Okay, yeah, I’d bomb Pakistan...
...These McCain advisers were hardly alone...
...Several of McCain’s top advisers believed his candidacy was doomed as long as he was closely identifi ed with Iraq...
...A small caravan of SUVs and a bus for the press made their way to The Citadel for McCain’s fi rst post-New Hampshire speech in the Palmetto State...
...At 6 P.M., the tones of “Retreat” and then “To the Colors” echoed through Summerall Field, a large rectangular lawn surrounded by white buildings that appeared imposing in the slightly haunting dusk...
...He had reason to be nervous...
...After New Hampshire, McCain’s campaign chartered a 757 to fl y to the upcoming primary states...
...He speaks informally and does not labor over his words...
...McCain’s friend and erstwhile supporter, former senator Fred Thompson, is coming off an excellent debate performance in South Carolina and is counting on a strong fi nish in the state to invigorate his campaign...
...Over the next 30 minutes, McCain took questions about everything from Iraq to South Carolina, his superstitions to Hillary Clinton...
...The challenges that we face are long and tough and diffi cult...
...This complicated matters for journalists, now standing eight deep, trying to time their shouted questions to the end of his last answer...
...And all of this before his fi ve-point win in New Hampshire last Tuesday...
Vol. 13 • January 2007 • No. 18
