The Huckabee Surge

...The other is whether contributions will increase enough for Huckabee to buy the television ads he needs to run in several states at once...

...The criticism of Huckabee will Terry Eastland is the publisher of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...

...The point was to have them become American citizens and not be a drain on the public treasury...

...Huckabee, although up to 12 percent in the national polls, remains a long shot for the GOP nomination...

...An aide says there’s enough money (the campaign raised more via the web last month than it had raised from all sources in any previous month) to be on television in the right markets for about a week...

...Thanks to these issues, he may have more appeal to religious conservatives than will Giuliani, who is not pro-life...

...It takes on the question of Huckabee’s conservative bona fi des with Norris saluting Huckabee as “a principled, authentic conservative...

...One such state, of course, is New Hampshire, which holds its primary in early January...

...Santa Claus is our secret weapon,” quips the aide...

...He’s come a long way since Ames...

...They’ve begun targeting Huckabee’s gubernatorial record, especially his record on taxes and illegal immigration, the top issue for Iowa Republicans...

...When the former Arkansas governor announced his candidacy last winter, few political observers thought the campaign would take off...

...As for the “special tuition breaks,” Huckabee says they were college scholarships that the children of illegal immigrants had to earn by doing well academically...

...It wants to peak at tournament time...

...Most observers think that the turnout for the GOP caucus will be down this year—Republicans are quite depressed—but that about half of the voters will be religious (defi ned as evangelical or Catholic) conservatives...

...Huckabee just went up with his campaign’s fi rst television ad...

...Romney, who has only recently declared himself pro-life...

...He gets in but he overpromises and underperforms...

...or Thompson, who takes a federalism position on abortion and gay marriage (i.e., let the states decide...

...With Fred Thompson, we heard that he was another Ronald Reagan...

...To beat him will really prove tough,” says Vander Plaats...

...But the polls show the distance between the two candidates narrowing in recent weeks, and Huckabee’s rise has meant that Romney and other Republican candidates must take him seriously...

...And we want to peak at caucus time...

...Vander Plaats notes that Iowa Republicans are “unsettled” about the presidential race...

...On a recent Fox News Sunday, Huckabee attacked Thompson’s federalism approach to abortion policy: “If morality is the point here, and if it’s right or wrong, not just a political question, then you can’t have 50 different versions of what’s right and what’s wrong...

...What might help Huckabee leave Iowa with one of the coveted three tickets are the state’s religious conservatives...

...A Southern Baptist pastor in Arkansas for 12 years before he entered politics, Huckabee is pro-life and pro-marriage amendment...

...Where the “top-tier” candidates have emphasized the war on terror, says one of his staffers, Huckabee has focused on domestic issues...

...But he’s run a smart campaign on a shoestring budget...

...Huckabee plans to run more television ads in December...

...intensify in the coming weeks, and he anticipates more debate about his record and his proposals, including his call for replacing the income tax with a consumption tax...

...However much they like Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or John McCain (who seems to have written off the state), they remain open to an alternative—a conservative to their liking (even someone more conservative than Bush, if the polls are an accurate gauge...

...Vander Plaats says the Iowa staff is busy “identifying . . . the people who are actually going to participate and how many people they are going to take with them...

...Publicly, at least, the campaign has no illusions about catching Romney, who has spent heavily in the state and has an effective organization...

...There was anticipation that Newt [Gingrich] might get in, and we like Newt, but he doesn’t get in...

...One is whether he can go beyond Iowa and succeed in states with fewer religious conservatives and thus a broader base of Republican voters...

...The ad (you can fi nd it on YouTube) is funny to the point of being almost fl ippant...

...Holiday advertising may limit the number of spots that any candidate can buy, which would nullify Huckabee’s opponents’ money advantage...

...If Huckabee comes in second or even fi rst, two questions for his campaign will arise, says Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist who’s neutral this time around...

...Ultimately, the question in Iowa for all the candidates is how many supporters will turn out on the night of January 3, which could be cold and blustery, an excuse for staying home to watch the Orange Bowl...

...And he has presented himself and his views directly to voters in “retail” campaigning: “town by town, community by community, house by house,” favoring the small ball of a “dinner-time conversation” over the (ostensibly) big-ball “hard-core speech” or television ad...

...What may ensure a reasonably civil campaign is that Christmas is just nine days before the caucus...

...Huckabee adds, “You don’t punish a child,” who may have been fi ve years old upon being bought across the border, “for the crime of the parent...

...It’s a small buy of $60,000 and features Chuck Norris, who recently endorsed Huckabee...

...Huckabee’s proposal (it was not enacted) also required the students to apply for citizenship...

...Inside the Huckabee camp, the explanation for his rise is simple...

...Never has a caucus or primary been held this close to Christmas...

...Our goal is like that of a good basketball team,” he says...

...You can date Huckabee’s ascent from August 13 when he came in a surprising second in the Ames straw poll, having said he was hoping to fi nish in the top fi ve...

...He says the campaign is working with an email list of 34,000...

...Huckabee, says Murphy, should already be advertising in all the states with early primaries...

...Thus, Fred Thompson, for whom a top-three fi nish is a must if his campaign is ever to take off, has said Huckabee was “one of the [nation’s] highest-taxing governors...

...But if you go supernegative during the season, it probably won’t be well received in Iowa,” a state with a history of turning against negative campaigns...

...Their key issues, according to Brad Sherman, pastor of Solid Rock Christian Church and the campaign’s point man for cultivating support for Huckabee among pastors, remain abortion (“a big one,” says Sherman) and gay marriage (“that’s huge...

...And Romney, hoping to maintain if not lengthen his lead, has seized on a Huckabee proposal to give “special tuition breaks” to children of illegal immigrants...

...So Iowa Republicans, says Vander Plaats, have been looking more closely at the guy from Arkansas doing the heavy retail business...

...In response to Thompson, Huckabee told me that the former senator just doesn’t understand “how government functions at the state level, nor the uniqueness of Arkansas politics,” implying that if he did, he would see the basis for Huckabee’s fi scal policies, which included tax cuts and balanced budgets...

...Even before Ames, Huckabee had a goal for the January 3 caucus: to get, as he told me in an interview in late July, “one of three tickets out of Iowa—fi rst class, business, or coach,” meaning fi rst, second, and third place...

...Vander Plaats, chairman of the Mike Huckabee campaign in Iowa, can read the polls, and in the latest surveys of likely Republican caucus-goers Mike Huckabee came in second, trailing Mitt Romney by only two points in the American Research Group poll and by four points in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll of the same voters...

...No one can tell you what it means to campaign during Christmas,” says Chip Saltsman, Huckabee’s national campaign manager...