Off-Year Blues . . .
BARNES, FRED
Off-Year Blues . . . But next year, Republicans may be singing a happier tune BY FRED BARNES Republicans lost the governorship of Kentucky and the state senate in Virginia last week. But the...
...Davis, whose wife lost her state senate seat, said the Republican brand is still tarnished...
...Taxes...
...The Democratic presidential candidates have helped revive the tax issue by insisting on letting the Bush tax cuts expire...
...Republican congressman Tom Davis said the issue may have saved two seats in the state house of delegates, which remained in Republican control...
...Immigration...
...In Mississippi, RepubliFred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD...
...New Republican faces...
...If she wins the Democratic presidential nomination, she’ll unite Republicans, drive away “swing independent moderates,” and lose Virginia, Sabato says...
...They must win 11 of 16 races, an unlikely event, but possible since Katrina drove more than 100,000 Democrats from the state...
...It’s the one issue that binds Republicans of all ideological stripes while also attracting independents and soft Democrats...
...Badly outspent and lacking strong name identifi cation, Ballard knocked off a two-term Democratic incumbent...
...The previous cycle, for Republicans, lasted from 1993 to 2001...
...Ballard’s victory in Indianapolis was spurred by his opposition to raising property taxes and to a county income tax...
...But Republican candidates did better in the outer suburbs of Washington and the suburbs of Norfolk and Newport News than they had in 2005 or 2006...
...In his campaign for governor in 2005, Republican Jerry Kilgore emphasized a policy of denying any state aid to illegal immigrants...
...The Republican brand...
...The last Democrat to win Virginia was Lyndon Johnson in 1964...
...Sabato, the leading expert on Virginia politics, believes the cycle favoring Democrats that began with Mark Warner’s election as governor in 2001 may be “nearing its peak with Warner’s campaign for senator” in 2008...
...Kaine, a Democrat, has endorsed Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination...
...The biggest fear of Virginia Democrats is Hillary Clinton...
...The right Democratic candidate can win Virginia,” Governor Tim Kaine said last week...
...But the elections were not as bad as they looked for Republicans...
...This is John Kennedy, who recently switched parties, and was unopposed in his reelection as state treasurer...
...Whether Republicans hurt themselves among Hispanic voters statewide is unclear...
...The tax issue—no, the antitax issue—wasn’t a factor in the 2006 election, but it’s coming back...
...The most startling example was the upset victory of Greg Ballard as mayor of Indianapolis...
...Knocked down and trampled on by Democrats in 2006, Republicans are at least back on their feet in 2007...
...These are the fastest growing areas of the state and the areas of Republican strength...
...Republicans see two rays of hope in Virginia...
...She’ll start another Republican cycle...
...The Democratic trend in Virginia, especially in the suburbs of Washington and urban centers of Hampton Roads, was the most discouraging aspect for Republicans...
...The wrong Democrat can’t...
...Governor Haley Barbour was reelected with ease, and Republicans took all but one statewide offi ce...
...It is far from what it once was, particularly in Virginia, but it appears to be gradually regaining respectability...
...He is both a policy-generating machine and a smart politician...
...It reinforced the likelihood that former Democratic governor Mark Warner will win the seat of retiring Republican senator John Warner next year and suggested the long Democratic drought at the presidential level might be ending...
...The issue didn’t work and he lost to Democrat Tim Kaine...
...In Louisiana, Republicans have a chance to win the state house in next week’s runoff election...
...The most important newcomer is Jindal, 36, one of the most impressive Republicans in the country...
...And the Democratic chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Charles Rangel, has proposed a 4 percent surtax on high earners...
...Bush won the state in 2004 by 8 points...
...Better yet, Republicans have a candidate in Louisiana to challenge Democratic senator Mary Landrieu in 2008...
...Republicans desperately need it...
...There aren’t many, but then only a few states hold elections in odd years...
...So you can guess who he thinks is the “wrong Democrat...
...In Washington, a generally blue state, voters rejected two referendums to increase taxes and passed another bolstering the legislative super-majority required to enact a tax hike...
...This issue continues to be far less of a vote-grabber than Republicans believe...
...In Oregon, voters refused to raise cigarette taxes to pay for child health care...
...Taking into account Republican Bobby Jindal’s election last month as governor of Louisiana and the strong (but losing) performance of Republican Jim Ogonowski in a special House election in a heavily Democratic district in Massachusetts, Republicans are in considerably better shape now than a year ago...
...Republicans certainly hope so...
...cans made serious inroads...
...Jindal is bound to attract national attention...
...Advocating a tough crackdown on illegal immigrants “helped in a few places but not statewide” in Virginia, said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia...
Vol. 13 • November 2007 • No. 10
