The Suburbs from Hell
BUNCH, SONNY
The Suburbs from Hell The GOP is in trouble in the districts around Philadelphia. by Sonny Bunch Bucks County, Pennsylvania With four of its congressional races still close in the final weeks of...
...That hasn't stopped Gerlach from tireless campaigning...
...Their predicaments bring to mind that of another Pennsylvania incumbent defeated in a national sweep—Marjorie Mar-golies-Mezvinsky, the only Democratic incumbent in Pennsylvania to fall to the Gingrich revolution of 1994...
...Larry Ceisler, a veteran Democratic political analyst, says Fitz-patrick runs into problems with the increasing share of his constituents who are liberal on social issues, but he has done a good job of racking up endorsements from disparate groups, including the Sierra Club, Defenders of Wildlife, the U.S...
...He didn't grow up in the district...
...Gerlach is running in a most peculiarly shaped district, with tentacles stretching north and south from its main body...
...Instead, he asked Murphy, "How many school districts are there in Bucks County...
...His Bucks County district is populated mainly by commuters (to Philadelphia, New Jersey, and even New York), many of them young families who still vote Democratic even though they like safe suburbs and exurbs with good schools...
...He chuckled and said, "Tell her to give me a call...
...This year, Weldon and Sherwood have given their opponents the rope with which to hang them...
...Fitzpatrick and Gerlach, by contrast, have kept their noses clean...
...The latest Keystone Poll puts him at 45 percent and his opponent, Lois Murphy, at 38 percent among registered voters, though his lead narrows to 3 points among likely voters...
...Allowed to ask his opponent one question, Fitzpatrick chose not to delve into the vagaries of foreign policy or tax law...
...Chamber of Commerce, and all five Fraternal Order of Police branches that endorse candidates...
...He made a politically calculated decision to move to the district, based upon an opportunity he saw for himself to run for the Congress...
...Mike Fitzpatrick is another Republican who should be in trouble simply because of demographics...
...In some neighborhoods you cross a district boundary every few blocks...
...He both touts his local credentials and warns of the dire effects of a Democratic takeover of the House...
...Weldon's troubles came to a head on October 16, when the FBI conducted six raids as part of an investigation into whether he used his influence to gin up lobbying business for his daughter...
...Weldon won in 2002 with 66 percent of the vote, and in 2004 with Sonny Bunch is assistant editor at The Weekly Standard...
...Not many Republicans have those kinds of endorsements or that kind of support...
...Flustered, Murphy was unable to respond...
...A freshman representative, Margolies-Mezvinsky had cast the final vote to pass President Clinton's 1993 budget, whose massive tax increase helped provoke the Republican sweep...
...Managing to insulate himself from national trends, Fitzpatrick has a simple campaign ethic: "You work hard, you're honest with people, you lay your record out in front of them, and you let them make a choice...
...How much danger are these incumbents really in...
...by Sonny Bunch Bucks County, Pennsylvania With four of its congressional races still close in the final weeks of the midterm campaign, Pennsylvania could end up determining who controls the House of Representatives...
...Yet the most recent polling shows both of them trailing...
...This is not a district drawn up in heaven," says Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin and Marshall Keystone Poll...
...The Republicans' commitment to lower taxes, he stressed, would be good for both individuals and small businesses...
...It helps when you don't have to run advertisements explaining that you're not quite as morally bankrupt as you look...
...In the most recent Evans-Novak Political Report, Gerlach's and Weldon's districts joined Sherwood's in the "Leans Dem" column...
...Consummate politicians, both have good images in the media and good rapport with their constituents...
...Touring a packaging plant in Exton, Gerlach was informed that a constituent wanted to know why businesses should get involved in lobbying Congress and endorsing candidates...
...He does hold one strong advantage, though: He's the only local candidate in the race...
...Made to personify the tax-and-spend Democrats, she was handily defeated...
...59 percent, while Sherwood has run unopposed in the last two elections...
...Sherwood, embarrassed by a former mistress claiming he had assaulted her, has been forced to take to the airwaves and admit that yes, he had had a mistress, but no, he had not choked her...
...Instead of personal problems, they are up against the increasingly Democratic demographics of their districts...
...Polls and other barometers have analysts watching the Sixth, Seventh, Eighth, and Tenth Districts, held by Republicans Jim Gerlach, Curt Wel-don, Mike Fitzpatrick, and Don Sherwood respectively...
...Their downfall: the "culture of corruption...
...Fitzpatrick, a former Bucks County commissioner, drove home that point in a debate earlier this month...
...It's also difficult to campaign in...
...Of these GOP incumbents, the two who are clearly in trouble—Wel-don and Sherwood—are in districts that are generally safe for Republicans...
...I'll tell her what her world would look like with Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House, and with Charles Rangel as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee...
...A recent Public Opinion Strategies poll of likely voters is more favorable—Gerlach leads Murphy 51 percent to 39 percent...
...Weldon and Sherwood seem doomed to be the Margolies-Mezvin-skys of this cycle...
...Gerlach is still ahead in most polls...
...I have both business, industry, and labor support," he says...
...Redrawn in 2002 specifically for Gerlach, the Sixth "has no core, no center," Madonna says, "and it's extraordinarily difficult to represent because of its diversity and complexity...
...Fitzpatrick has also managed to distance himself from President Bush on Iraq and has run TV ads portraying Murphy as indecisive on the issue...
...When I asked him to compare his local record with that of his challenger, Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy, he almost laughed...
...Both men's opponents have been able to portray them as the local embodiment of Republican corruption, in a year when the Democratic leadership is making GOP sleaze a national issue...
...And they'll make the right choice...
Vol. 12 • October 2006 • No. 7
