The Vulnerable Frontrunner
CONTINETTI, MATTHEW
The Vulnerable Frontrunner Giuliani confronts the primary calendar. by Matthew Continetti The scene was the headquarters of GT Solar Technologies in Merrimack, New Hampshire. It was August 17, and...
...And we know that...
...Third, Giuliani said, fighting Al Qaeda In Iraq and al Qaeda remnants in Afghanistan so far has prevented Islamic terrorists from again striking America...
...I think that's a terrible thing to do...
...The Giuliani campaign, looking to win pluralities if not majorities, predicts Thompson's entry will lower the number of votes necessary to win in any given state, thus boosting the mayor's chances by dividing social conservatives among many candidates...
...I think it's a mistake, both Matthew Continetti is associate editor of The Weekly Standard...
...She said she didn't understand "that way of thinking...
...I think they"—the troops—"have accomplished a great deal in Iraq...
...A Romney trifecta, or even wins in two out of the three states, would bring huge amounts of free publicity and would greatly complicate Giuliani's South Carolina strategy, to say the least...
...Not Giuliani...
...As things stand, there will be two, perhaps three contests prior to South Carolina: Iowa, New Hampshire, and perhaps Michigan...
...In the past, he hasn't spent much time discussing the personal mistakes he has made...
...There's also the Thompson factor...
...A typical pol might have dodged the woman's comment and moved on to his stump speech...
...But the attacks will continue...
...Right now the target is South Carolina, whose primary currently is scheduled for January 19...
...He expects to raise more money from contributors than any other Republican candidate during the third quarter, which ends on September 30...
...A woman with short brown hair said she didn't understand how being "on offense" in the war on terrorism "means having 3,500 of our troops being killed in Iraq and Afghanistan...
...In a letter to voters released last week, McCain wrote: "I believe it would be a grave mistake for our party to lose focus by nominating a candidate whose commitment to restoring the proper role of the courts can credibly be questioned...
...You asked the question, let me finish the answer...
...But one thing seems clear...
...Even Arizona senator John McCain, whom the Giuliani campaign considers down but not out in the fight for 2008, got into the fray...
...American troops deposed Saddam Hussein, "who was a major pillar of support for Islamic terrorism," Giuliani said...
...Also, Giuliani's main rivals for the nomination, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, have only just begun to attack the mayor on immigration (Romney) and gun control (Thompson...
...Hizzoner took much of last week off, resting in preparation for the grueling campaign season that begins after Labor Day...
...The woman tried to interrupt...
...The victory in Iraq helped convince Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi to give up his weapons of mass destruction and terrorist support—"another major achievement of the men and women who you say are accomplishing very little in Iraq...
...substantively and emotionally, both, to tell our troops that they're accomplishing nothing in Iraq—and a very serious overstatement...
...Giuliani appears to have halted his slippage in national polls and reasserted his national lead at about 30 percent support...
...Republican voters may respond positively to Thompson's laid-back charm, which contrasts sharply with Giuliani's politics of confrontation...
...I would say just the opposite," Giuliani said...
...He won't go into it in detail with reporters, or voters...
...There are also the twin issues of Giuliani's family and spiritual life...
...But the former mayor and his top campaign staff enter the fall confident they will prevail in the race for the GOP nomination...
...He not only tackled the question—he also took on the questioner...
...But this would hurt Giuliani the most, as the opera-loving Yankee-fan's support in the South—bizarre as it may seem to some New Yorkers—is real...
...And his articulate, aggressive stance on terrorism, national security, and illegal immigration is bound to resonate with the majority of Republican primary voters who list those issues as their top concerns...
...As that number rises, there's a chance his support will decline...
...We're not accomplishing anything," she said...
...No, no, no," Giuliani went on...
...You might not like the answer, but you got to let me finish it...
...The scenarios pile up...
...If Iowa goes to Huckabee, New Hampshire and Michigan go to Romney, and South Carolina goes to Thompson, what then...
...Which I think comes from, in a large way, the way in which the media covers it...
...And Michi-gan—where polling indicates the race is wide open—is the state where Romney grew up and his father was a popular governor...
...Here's the problem...
...You got to let me finish the answer now...
...At the moment Romney has double-digit leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the average of polls available at RealClearpPolitics...
...But I would not tell our troops in Iraq that they're not accomplishing anything...
...Giuliani's response helps explain his appeal—and hints at liabilities...
...The thrice-married mayor has said his private life is exactly that—private...
...It was August 17, and former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani—the current frontrunner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination—was taking questions from a small audience...
...I would say we know that we're accomplishing things...
...Just ask the antiwar voter in Merri-mack...
...Thompson won't gain much more traction nationally, the Giuliani campaign predicts, but could emerge as a regional candidate who wins several southern states...
...If Giuliani pulls off wins in South Carolina and Florida, he'll be in a good position to take February 5 states like New York, New Jersey, California, Illinois, and Delaware...
...And he has no plans to do so in the future...
...Rudy Giuliani probably has to pull out a win in one of the pre-South Carolina states if he is to have a good shot at the nomination...
...McCain didn't say who that candidate might be, but he wasn't talking about Kansas senator Sam Brownback...
...So Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner—but he's also a highly vulnerable frontrunner...
...Giuliani's focus is on winning at least one contest prior to Florida's primary on January 29...
...Giuliani fought back on immigration, and the gun control issue does not seem to have gained traction, at least for now...
...Polls show only a plurality of Republican voters understands that Giuliani is pro-choice in a pro-life party...
...The more serious vulnerability comes from the primary calendar...
...And if that happens, he'll be in a commanding position to win Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and D.C., on February 12, and—well, by then, he'll have the nomination...
Vol. 12 • September 2007 • No. 48
