Minority Rule
BARNES, FRED
Minority Rule Mitch McConnell sets the agenda in the Senate. by Fred Barnes Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell has a theory about divided government. It’s this: When one party holds the...
...These include the hiring of 14,000 new Border Patrol agents, authorizing the construction of 370 more miles of fence along the border with Mexico, deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles, deployment of ground radar, and the creation of a biometric ID card so employers can verify whether an immigrant worker is legally in the country...
...This is necessary to block Democratic legislation because a successful filibuster requires 41 votes...
...Other possible changes include increases in the regular retirement age and the early retirement age...
...So it matters that he believes the circumstances are ripe for reforming immigration and Social Security...
...When Bush proposed Social Security reform and sought Democratic cosponsors, “we got nothing...
...They would craft a reform measure to be sent to both houses under a procedure allowing no amendments, only an up or down vote, just as is done in the case of trade treaties...
...Certification would trigger a program to allow illegal immigrants to gain legal status, though not citizenship...
...But the bill is unfinished...
...On the other hand, “it’s really easy to do nothing around here...
...Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly STAndArd...
...Social Security reform, however, may be out of reach and, for now anyway, McConnell has set his sights low...
...Kennedy is sure to demand at least one thing: a provision for guiding illegals in the United States toward becoming citizens...
...Leahy said it was up to Bush, not Democrats, to act first by offering a proposal...
...Isakson is important because the Republican bill now taking shape is centered around his idea of staggering reform by doing border security first, then taking steps to deal with the illegal immigrants who are already here...
...And he is well on his way to producing a bill that would win the support of Republican senators from John Cornyn of Texas, a restrictionist, to John McCain, who cosponsored a liberal immigration bill last year with Democratic senator Edward Kennedy...
...There’s an incentive for both parties to reach agreement on immigration...
...Though Democrats control both the House and the Senate, McConnell has greater influence on what Congress passes and in what form than either House speaker Nancy Pelosi or Senate majority leader Harry Reid...
...He implied the president was insincere in his support for comprehensive immigration reform, which the entire pro-immigration community and other Democratic senators know is untrue...
...But he also envisions a positive role...
...And it was a fair assumption that Democrats, having seized Congress, would take charge of the immigration issue while keeping Social Security reform off the congressional agenda altogether...
...The latter steps would be pursued once the Department of Homeland Security certified that five measures necessary to border security had been undertaken...
...He would like to set up a bipartisan procedure for reaching a compromise that probably would reject both a tax increase and the private investment accounts funded by payroll taxes that Bush and conservatives have championed...
...Republicans would get an issue that divides them bitterly off the table before the 2008 election...
...The first is the passage in 1983 of a Social Security reform (and bailout) bill that brought President Reagan and Democratic House speaker Tip O’Neill together...
...McConnell’s scheme may fail as well...
...In three months as Senate Republican leader, McConnell has proved himself to be adept at foiling Democrats...
...His goal on most issues is to maximize Republican power by unifying as many of the 49 Republican senators as possible behind a single position...
...But Democrats have dawdled...
...Once drafted, it would be presented to Kennedy in hopes of reaching a compromise with Democrats...
...More likely, it would involve means-testing of benefits, which would trim increases for those in upper income brackets...
...As for taking on Social Security, that’s problematic...
...They are uniquely suited to being decided by divided government...
...The process would bring together Republicans and Democrats from the House and Senate, along with Bush administration officials...
...The group includes Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Jon Kyl of Arizona, Mel Martinez of Florida, and Johnny Isakson of Georgia...
...It’s this: When one party holds the White House, and the other holds one or both houses of Congress, the chances of passing landmark legislation improve dramatically...
...We haven’t gotten to a process yet,” he says...
...And the expectation has been that Social Security would be left for the next president to grapple with...
...I’m not optimistic we’re going to get there...
...A theory held by the leader of the minority party in Congress normally wouldn’t be significant...
...That’s his negative role...
...Some Democrats still boast about having thwarted President Bush’s attempt to reform the system— or “privatize” it from the Democratic perspective—in 2005...
...It’s a way to get a result,” McConnell says...
...Until McConnell became Senate minority leader, these two issues had been left to President Bush to promote...
...On immigration, however, McConnell’s “personal preference” is to pass reform legislation, not block it...
...But it is in McConnell’s case because he has suddenly emerged as the king of Capitol Hill...
...McConnell cites two examples...
...All he is seeking is what he calls “a process that could lead to a conclusion...
...McConnell stepped in...
...The other came in 1996 when President Clinton signed a sweeping welfare reform bill drafted by a Republican Congress...
...Democrats would get credit for passing a major piece of reform legislation with something for restrictionists (beefedup border security) and for pro-immigrant forces (some form of legalization...
...We need to do something on both these issues,” immigration and Social Security, he says...
...McConnell doesn’t want to wait...
...This year Kennedy has complained that McCain is avoiding a discussion with him about immigration...
...Patrick Leahy, the Vermont Democrat and petulant chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, inadvertently cleared the way for McConnell on immigration...
...At McConnell’s instigation, Republican senators have been meeting for weeks to discuss immigration reform...
Vol. 12 • April 2007 • No. 28
