Irresolution

...Now it is his fault—and theirs...

...The mere suggestion of a serious crackdown has prompted its targets to run for cover," writes the Boston Herald's Jules Crittenden...

...The great Republican landslide of 1994 was not predictable from a January 1993 standpoint...

...The one thing on which they are always consistent is their faithful adherence to polls—to the poll of the day and the mood of the moment, the problem being that the day and the moment can change...

...by Noemie Emery Giddy with joy at their sudden good fortune, the Democrats have set out to embarrass the president, pushing resolutions of less-than-no-confidence, clubbing his Iraq surge plan as it lies in its cradle, and declaring defeat in advance...

...It is a fancy Americans have been frequently loath to concede...

...And no one will be able to prove that these charges are wrong...

...Democrats claim surge proponents are ignoring the lessons of Vietnam, and of history...

...They have cut themselves off from all share in a victory, bought themselves a half-share in a loss, should one develop, and given the president they so despise an excuse he did not have before this...

...And why is it now at least partly their problem...

...seems to have to learn anew every war," writes the retired Army major and blogger Donald Sensing...

...Now he has altered course: The most important part of his new plan is not the number of men to be added, but the way they will be used—not only to train the Iraqis but to engage and dispose of the enemy...

...In the long run, those seen as courting defeat are not thought of fondly...

...challenges and responses no one can imagine, much less strategize on in advance...

...But the present, intense as it is, is often a poor predictor of what will come next...

...That's because their eyes are on regaining the White House next year...

...His Shiite militia men have hidden their weapons and are trying to act normal...

...Because the Democratic tantrum comes at just the wrong time...

...Iran has signaled it wants positive engagement and negotiations, and is trying to look like a friendly neighbor to Iraq...

...The Democrats have also given Bush a partial alibi for a possible failure—he tried, but at a critical moment they threw in the towel...

...This is why pulling the plug on the surge now would be like asking Lincoln to fire Grant, accept defeat, and retreat into Maryland, because (1) all the generals before Grant had failed, and therefore Grant would fail also, and (2) Lincoln's record as a war president to date had been such a disaster— picking bad generals, wasting opportunities, failing to crush a smaller and much less well-supplied enemy—that no one could trust him again...

...If, on the other hand, the surge is seen to fail, they will be the ones who made it more difficult, demoralized the armed forces, kneecapped the commander, and telegraphed to the enemy that our will was cracking, and we would shortly be leaving...

...lavished praise on his new commander even as they lamented the plan he had written and ignored his warnings that they were helping the enemy...

...And rest assured that if things break up now, conservatives will hang it around the Democrats' necks from here to eternity...

...From the start, Bush's tendency in Iraq, when faced with a complex mix of political and military problems, has been to emphasize the political aspect, trying to engage or negotiate with people and agents who in retrospect should have been intimidated, disposed of, or otherwise crushed...

...the Democratic triumph of 2006 was not predictable from a January 2005 standpoint...

...On January 31, the Washington Times ran a front-page story detailing the statements of all the Democrats who had called for more troops to be sent to Iraq before they opposed the surge when Bush came round on this point...

...They might give these some thought for themselves...

...If a failure ensues, it is no longer his fault, in its entirety...

...But they have also painted themselves into a number of corners, from which they may find it hard to escape...

...As a result, in the next 30 years they elected exactly two presidents, one in 1976 as a reaction to Watergate (who was called back in disgust a scant four years later), and one in the 1990s, after the Cold War had ended, and in the midst of the "holiday from history," which is not likely to recur...

...It was thus no surprise that the congressional Democrats attacked Bush for doing the same thing they had once wanted at exactly the moment that he was changing his strategy...

...Grant was the first Union general to understand this fact, for which President Lincoln rewarded him with command of all the Union armies in the field...

...The armed forces will feel betrayed by them...

...This argument would be plausible enough to attract Noemie Emery, a Weekly Standard contributing editor, is author most recently of Great Expectations: The Troubled Lives of Political Families...

...But no one can call them great minds...

...Did we mention this country is not fond of losing...

...For the first time in years, Bush has gone back on the offensive (which is where most of his disaffected supporters have longed to see him), and for the first time in a long time we may see some results...

...For some reason, this is a lesson that the U.S...

...In 1974, triumphant Democrats listened to their base, and to the polls, and to public opinion, and closed down a tedious war against the will of a Republican president...

...Moktada al-Sadr is angling to get back into the political process...

...A foolish consistency is not their hobgoblin...

...But this is just par for the course...

...approved him without a single nay vote from any one of their number, and then sent him off with their wishes and blessings, after saying they knew he was on a fool's errand, and cutting him off at the knees...

...Count on this simile to be used over and over, by John McCain or by Rudy Giuliani, as a club to batter the "for the troops before we were against them" brigades...

...Did we mention that by nearly a two to one margin, voters believe that a resolution casting doubt on the president's plans would hurt troop morale and encourage the enemy...

...In some sense, they have achieved their objectives: They have embarrassed Bush, exposed his weakness, and won over a cadre of frightened Republicans...

...and the political mood in January 2007 may be a poor prognosticator of the political climate of 2008...

...They were for the war before they were against it, just as they voted for the $87 billion before they voted against it...

...A conservative who at times has been all too compassionate, Bush has at last been cured of his fancy that he could fight a soft and compassionate war...

...If Iraq is stabilized this side of chaos, the congressional Democrats will be remembered as the people who fought to prevent it, who tried to kneecap the commander and demoralize the armed forces, and all in all make the mission more difficult...

...Poll-watching surge-bashers might want to keep this in mind...

...But there is a difference between warning of failure and seeming to want it or cause it, and this is the line they have stumbled over...

...What looks like smart, or save-your-rear politics in 2007, may look rather different before long...

...Did we mention that the polls that showed a two-to-one margin against the surge option also showed close to a half-and-half split on its chance of succeeding, and that two in three hoped that it would...

...Bush was a genius in 2004, and a dupe two years later, just as Clinton was a genius in 1992 and a survivor two years after that...

...That is why, with varied success (Jim Webb and John Kerry), they have tried to round up the few vets they can find to carry their banner, the thought being that a call for retreat sounds better when an ex-fighter issues it, and directs an advance to the rear...

...On this time line, Bush's new commander, General David Petraeus, stands in relation to the prior commanders as Grant does to Civil War losers McClel-lan and Meade...

...Democrats will scream themselves blue in the face, but they will be countered by plausible arguments...

...Sunni insurgents are reportedly hightailing it to Diyala...

...The 2008 election cannot be predicted, as it depends on too many things that can change without warning...

...It wasn't until 1863, for example, that the Union Army finally came to understand that the [Confederate] army would not be defeated until it had been vanquished in the field, one time after another, over and over again...

...Iraq, Iran, Korea, terror strikes anywhere, unlooked-for wins and losses...

...Had they let the surge play itself out, with best wishes but grave reservations, the Democrats could have gained a reputation for good will in any event, and for genuine prescience in the case of failure...

...support from a great many people...