Republican Border Wars

...Rather than toss up the Hail Mary of comprehensive reform with a guest-worker program and earned citizenship for illegals, Pelosi may pursue a piecemeal strategy...

...That seems a common point of view among Republicans who favor the Bush-Martinez approach...

...Democrats may also be leery of forcing such a tough vote on their freshmen, several of whom ran to Bush's right on immigration...

...That's the opinion of Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, who has lobbied hard against Bush's "comprehensive" immigration reform package...

...Both vote counts were lopsided...

...Martinez, a Cuban refugee who fled the island in 1962, supports the Bush vision of a guest-worker program for future immigrants and a "path to citizenship" for illegal aliens...

...Here were three of the toughest border hawks of the campaign...

...Whatever their thoughts on the leadership fight, Republicans remain bitterly split on immigration...

...All these data, say the Bush-Martinez Republicans, suggest public support for the sort of "comprehensive" reform that passed the Senate...

...The president's observation was—and our observation was—that we are probably going to have an easier time with the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives than he had with the Republican majority," Hoyer told Bloomberg Television...

...What if Bush puts on a full-court press for his guest-worker and earned-citizenship proposals...

...That's why Mel Martinez got the RNC chair...

...Much may depend on the lessons Republicans take from the 2006 election...

...It's gonna tear our party up...

...Hayworth, Randy Graf, and John Hostettler...

...by Duncan Currie By appointing Florida senator Mel Martinez to chair the Republican National Committee, President Bush sent a blunt message to conservatives: "Drop dead...

...It would certainly place a further burden on Bush's already strained relations with congressional Republicans...

...At his press conference the next day, Bush agreed that a Democratic Congress would give him (in a reporter's words) "a better shot at comprehensive immigration reform...

...Yet they both lost, as did Hostettler in Indiana...

...But the guest-worker and earned-citizenship ideas languished—until the election was over...

...Americans for Tax Reform president Gro-ver Norquist thinks there has always been a functioning House majority for comprehensive immigration reform...

...We lost the base a long time ago, and that's why the House crumbled...

...Democrats may wish to deny Bush the pomp of a signing ceremony, not to mention any credit with Latinos...

...Maybe...

...Hyperbole, perhaps, but it highlights the GOP fissure on immigration—one deepened by the recent election...

...There's a small hard core that would pretty much vote for any amnesty that was presented to them...

...Last Friday Pence lost his bid for minority leader to John Boehner, the current majority leader...

...They note that Hostettler's opponent, Democrat Brad Ellsworth, was also a security-first, anti-amnesty border hawk...

...No doubt House Republicans will be trying to peel off Blue Dog Democrats with whom they can create an "anti-amnesty" bloc...

...The Hagel-Martinez bill, which Bush strongly favored, did just that...

...But not all conservatives agree about the House Republicans...

...Arizona's John Shadegg also lost his challenge to incumbent Roy Blunt of Missouri for GOP whip...

...Bush, of course, rejects the word "amnesty...

...Fans of the Bush-Martinez strategy point to losing Republicans J.D...

...It may be a long two years for House Republicans...

...It is an issue, Bush said, "where I believe we can find some common ground...

...It's also worth noting what Democrat Steny Hoyer, the House majority leader-elect, said shortly after the election...

...He is also a prominent GOP envoy to the Latino community...

...In the meantime, Congress passed, and Bush signed, a bill calling for 700 miles of reinforced fencing along the U.S.-Mexican border...

...If Krikorian is right, it suggests an irony liberals should appreciate: The same president that many caricature as a right-wing partisan is closer on immigration to Ted Kennedy than he is to the House GOP caucus...

...Hayworth and Graf were running in Arizona, one of the states most affected by illegal border crossings...

...And while Arizona voters rejected Hay-worth and Graf, they overwhelmingly approved a series of ballot initiatives that will, among other things, restrict illegal immigrants' access to social services, ban them from winning punitive damages in civil lawsuits, and make English the official state language...

...He had just met with Bush at the White House and discussed immigration...

...While many question whether speaker-designate Nancy Pelosi will make it a priority, this aide says he "would not be surprised" if the Democratic Congress passed comprehensive immigration reform "within the first hundred days...

...But almost as soon as this became the new conventional wisdom, it was supplanted by the even newer conventional wisdom, according to which House Democrats may resist pushing any umbrella bill that House Republicans can deride as "amnesty...

...Each gave a little bit, and they said to the American public, 'This is what we need to do.' We can do that again...

...Other Republicans, not surprisingly, draw a different lesson...

...They claim the exit poll question ("Should most illegal immigrants working in the United States be: Offered a chance to apply for legal status...

...I think it will be chaos," says the "disgusted" GOP aide...

...The radio talk-show hosts got out there and poisoned the atmosphere," says Norquist, who worries that being overly harsh on immigration contributed to the GOP's loss of Congress...

...But his decision to tap Martinez for the RNC post may reflect unease over the GOP's loss of Hispanic votes in 2006...

...So what happened last summer...

...Deported to the country they came from...

...How will House Republicans respond...

...Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill got together—I mentioned that at the White House—and they solved the Social Security funding crisis of 1983...

...There are several reasons for this...

...Krikorian guesses that "the overwhelming majority" ofHouse Republicans oppose the Bush plan, which means they would oppose a revived Hagel-Martinez bill...

...licans, who refused even to appoint conferees...

...I think they'll lay down on the railroad tracks in front of it, to keep it from going through," says an aide to GOP congressman Mike Pence of Indiana, head of the conservative Republican Study Committee...

...That is, she may bring up smaller, labor-related bills that touch on various aspects of immigration policy but would not prove as controversial as broad-based reform...

...It passed the GOP-led Senate by a vote of 62-36 last May, before dying at the hands of House RepubDuncan Currie is a reporter at The Weekly Standard...

...What if Pelosi does make common cause with Bush on immigration...

...Come January, much will depend on the agenda set by Pelosi...

...Meanwhile, a national exit poll found that voters— when given two options for dealing with illegal immigrants—preferred giving them "a chance to apply for legal status" over mass deportation by a margin of 57 percent to 38 percent...

...Like Bush, Martinez breaks with most conservatives on immigration: He accepts the need for stiffened border control, but also wants to expand channels for legal immigration and create a process for illegals to earn citizenship...

...His elevation to RNC chief, says Krikorian, shows how "emotionally" invested Bush is in passing an "amnesty" bill...

...Immigration hurt us," says one GOP House aide...

...This is something the president can't let go...

...I have never been so disgusted with my own party," says another Republican House aide...

...I find it astonishing that our leadership just seems to be skating through...

...was hopelessly skewed in favor of the "amnesty" side...