As Sensenbrenner Goes
CONTINETTI, MATTHEW
As Sensenbrenner Goes So goes immigration legislation. by MATTHEW CONTINETTI "IM HOPEFUL that the House will save us from this bill," Sen. John Ensign, Republican of Nevada, told reporters last...
...They can change quickly...
...He really takes an unusual delight in these conferences," Rep...
...That revision includes an additional 350 miles of fencing on the border, an annual increase, through 2011, in the number of Border patrol agents, financial penalties for businesses that employ illegal migrants, a dizzyingly complex "employer verification system" to check the legal status of new hires, and an annual inflow of 200,000 guest-workers who could eventually apply for naturalization...
...Says Blunt: "People send us here to do hard work...
...Later still, he said, "I can just see 1986 repeating itself...
...The Senate bill split the Republican caucus and relied on Democratic votes for passage...
...Instead, the House bill, among other things, Matthew Continetti is a staff writer at THE WEEKLY STANDARD and the author of The K Street Gang (Doubleday...
...A second variable is the pressure Republicans feel to act like a responsible majority party...
...I am very confident that right now a solid majority of House Republicans would oppose the Senate bill," Rep...
...I think the people we work for expect us to make every effort to solve this problem...
...I've seen it in my own district—and these are not knee-jerk people...
...In addition to Rove, last week the president's chief of staff, Josh Bolten, visited Congress...
...As the House and Senate go to conference, perhaps the largest unknown is how much clout President Bush is capable of wielding in the Senate bill's behalf...
...A success on immigration reform could be the start to a Republican turnaround...
...John Ensign may get his wish after all...
...X-fac-tors abound...
...For those of us on the hustings, talking to people," Davis went on, "people are much closer to the House side" of the immigration debate...
...I don't know," he said...
...John Ensign, Republican of Nevada, told reporters last week, moments before his colleagues passed, 62 to 36, the most significant revision of U.S...
...authorizes 700 miles of border fencing, penalizes those who help illegal migrants remain in the United States, and says that being in the country illegally is a federal crime...
...Mike Pence of Indiana, a leader among House conservatives, was asked about the Senate bill...
...Everybody is talking about this thing...
...Finally—and most controversially—the Senate bill would create a three-tiered system of regulation that would allow undocumented workers who have been in the United States for more than five years to apply for naturalization without leaving the country, permit those who have been here between two and five years to apply once they return to their country of origin, and order those who have been here for less than two years to return home, period...
...Last week, in an appearance at the Heritage Foundation, Rep...
...A party that finds itself unable to pass high-profile legislation will be seen as demonstrating an inability to govern, this thinking goes, and will pay for it at the polls...
...Paul Ryan agrees: "I think the protests and ensuing backlash have made it less likely to get a compromise bill...
...King said...
...I don't have any reason to believe that that's not true in this case as well," Blunt said...
...Last week, I asked one GOP House member whether the president still has the political capital to shape the upcoming negotiations and win a legislative victory...
...On May 15, in a televised address to the nation calling for "comprehensive reform," Bush made immigration a test of his embattled presidency...
...Immigration "is the hottest issue out there," Davis said...
...Blunt expressed interest in Sen...
...Another mass mobilization, from either side of the debate, could have the same effect...
...The implication is that the presence of millions of illegal laborers in the United States is simply a law-enforcement problem...
...He relishes that type of combat...
...Any way you slice it, they say, it amounts to amnesty...
...This will be perceived as a test for voters...
...There's virtually no support back home or in my heart for amnesty," he said...
...He's tough," Rep...
...In December, the House of Representatives passed its own landmark immigration legislation, which lacks the guest-worker provision and contains no avenue for the illegal migrants already in the United States to move toward naturalization...
...On May 21, in an appearance on CBS's Face the Nation, he said that, contrary to the denials of President Bush, the Senate's approach "unfortunately is amnesty, because it gives a lawbreaker a way to become a citizen by paying a $2,000 fine...
...The first hurdle to any compromise is James Sensenbrenner, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, who will head the House negotiating team, and who brings to the task certain unique talents...
...But Democrats, and the Republican leadership in the Senate, saw the amendment as a poison pill that would guarantee the death of any reform package, and defeated it 40 to 55...
...Peter King of New York said of Sensenbrenner...
...On May 26, Sensenbrenner said the Senate bill was a "nonstarter...
...But the spectacle of illegal immigrants filling the streets only hardened the position of the House GOP...
...only 23 of 55 Republicans voted yes...
...House and Senate leaders will each appoint a set of conferees who will, over the next several months, attempt to work out a compromise satisfactory to both chambers...
...Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, whose district borders Sensenbrenner's, told me, "He's a tough guy to reckon with, a tough negotiator, and he's taking a tougher stance as this thing progresses...
...Chris Shays of Connecticut, one of the most liberal House Republicans, comes back from his district each week saying the same thing...
...The hurdles that such a compromise will have to surmount, however, are formidable...
...Twice in the past two weeks, he has dispatched his chief political adviser, Karl Rove, to Capitol Hill to woo recalcitrant congressmen...
...The Senate's advocates have no reason to be encouraged by his recent public statements...
...Recently, Bush invited the House leadership to the Oval Office to discuss immigration...
...I think the White House is hearing a very clear message from the House that the House members are fundamentally committed to securing the border...
...And yet: "It's more important to do the right thing," Blunt added, "than it is to do something...
...Davis added that Rep...
...And here things get tricky...
...The next hurdle is Sensenbren-ner's colleagues...
...Sensenbrenner's colleagues typically use a single word to describe him...
...Roy Blunt of Missouri, the majority whip, told me, "In the eyes of many Americans, the view is, before you can solve the other problems, you really have to demonstrate that the border is secure...
...Sensenbrenner added, however, "I don't think anything is a deal-breaker, but one of the things we've got to do is prevent the country from repeating the failed 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli law...
...immigration law in more than two decades...
...Few House Republicans support the centerpiece of the Senate approach—the attempt to regularize the status of the more than 11 million undocumented workers already in the United States...
...The House bill sparked massive protests throughout the country, which encouraged the Senate and President Bush to act...
...It was this sort of argument that contributed mightily to the House's passage of the Medicare prescription drug entitlement in November 2003...
...Ensign voted no...
...If that works, Bush will be able to claim victory on one of his top domestic priorities...
...The immigration issue is no exception...
...I've always said that the president's real legislative muscle is in the conference...
...The House bill passed, with overwhelming Republican support, 239 to 182...
...Later, he said: "I am afraid that the Senate is going down the same road of the mistake that was made 20 years ago...
...I think the demonstrations have had the opposite effect than the organizers intended," Blunt said...
...But, like New England weather, political dynamics can be turbulent...
...Though moderate on some issues, Sensenbrenner, who declined an interview for this article, has moved steadily to the right on immigration...
...A solid majority want border security first...
...Sensenbrenner, who has represented Wisconsin's Fifth District since 1979, last stepped into public view this past winter, when he, along with Senate Judiciary chairman Arlen Specter, shepherded the patriot Act to reauthorization over the objections of several senators...
...We've got to get something...
...Tom Davis of Virginia told reporters at a breakfast last week...
...We are perceived as running things," Davis told me...
...Johnny Isakson's proposed amendment to the Senate bill, which would have required that the Department of Homeland Security certify that the border is secure before a guest-worker or earned-legalization program could begin...
...We shouldn't be selling American citizenship...
...What next...
...only four Democrats—Robert Byrd, Byron Dorgan, Ben Nelson, and Debbie Stabenow— voted no...
...president Bush—whose stated views are closer to the Senate's than the House's—the Republican party, and the conservative movement are at an impasse...
Vol. 11 • June 2006 • No. 36
