Post-Katrina Politics
BARNES, FRED
Post-Katrina Politics Things are looking up for Louisiana Republicans. by FRED BARNES Baton Rouge LOUISIANA GOVERNOR Kathleen Blanco rented a fleet of buses a few weeks ago to take state...
...Who was the author of the term limits bill in 1995...
...Breaux remained uninterested...
...As best as anyone can tell, Katrina drove as many as 250,000 people out of the city, many permanently...
...So single-minded was Vitter about winning without a runoff that he moved his family from a suburb of New Orleans to Alexandria in central Louisiana for half of the summer before the election...
...Bob odom, the Democratic agricultural commissioner who has lost faith in Blanco, arranged for a poll in hopes it might encourage former Democratic senator John Breaux to run for governor...
...Louisiana also has fewer white Protestants, percentage-wise, than other southern states...
...Democrats complained bitterly that Alexander had waited until just before the filing deadline to change parties...
...In the medium to long term, that impact will be very modest or negligible," says Vitter...
...It took a long time for them to make the transition to voting Republican," according to Vitter...
...Afterwards, Vitter, 45, says he told his wife that Jin-dal, 34, was so impressive that he felt "old and dumb" by comparison...
...Maybe the legislators were indifferent...
...To gain political ground, Republicans must reflect that urgency and lead the movement to reform state and local government...
...He's really been working the state...
...Indeed they are, but far fewer than fled when Katrina struck and not enough to restore the city's political power...
...Louisiana is one of the few states where term limits were passed by the legislature, not by referendum...
...Blanco, whose performance in the post-Katrina recovery has been scandalously lame, is deeply unpopular...
...Vitter surprised many by winning the race for Breaux's vacated Senate seat without having to face a runoff...
...Louisiana has lagged behind other southern states in tilting Republican...
...Vitter and Jindal believe the biggest boost for Republicans is not the loss of population in New Orleans...
...His intention was not to help Republicans...
...A lot of those who voted for term limits will now tell you it was the worst vote they ever cast...
...Then came the Vitter surprise in 2004 and another party switch, this one by Congressman Rodney Alexander...
...Republicans had been a tiny minority before the change...
...House in 2004, is now the favorite to oust Blanco next year or, should she decline to run for reelection, to defeat any other Democrat...
...Vitter, a Harvard grad, was a Rhodes Scholar and later sat on a regional panel that interviewed Jin-dal, then a Brown University student, for a Rhodes...
...With more than a third of the House, Republicans were able to block a cigarette tax increase of $1 a pack proposed by Blanco...
...Today, he and Jindal are the most determined and vigorous politicians in Louisiana—and surely the smartest...
...In 1991, Democratic governor Buddy Roemer became a Republican...
...We feel very good about our chances to take the majority," says House Republican leader Jim Tucker of New Orleans...
...it was the peak of term limit feeling," says Maginnis...
...At least it once was a powerful Democratic stronghold, the arbiter of Louisiana elections...
...But the snub was also an unmistakable sign of the loss of political dominance in Louisiana by New orleans, one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic cities in the nation...
...The state, says Vitter, "is different from other southern states...
...People have grown more comfortable with Jindal," says John Maginnis, the premier Louisiana political analyst...
...it really was a feat," says Ed Renwick, who heads the Institute of Politics at Loyola University New Orleans...
...Senator David Vitter won 15 of the state's targeted districts in 2004 (when he became the first Republican senator from Louisiana since the 19th century) and President Bush got more than 60 percent in the other six...
...Enacted in 1995, they restrict legislators to 12 years in office, which means that next year dozens of Democrats will be gone...
...The poll pegged Jindal's support at 37 percent, Breaux's at 17, and Blanco's at 16...
...And while Republicans occasionally won statewide races, their victories never translated into Republican strength at the grassroots...
...In 1995, a Democratic state senator, Mike Foster, switched parties when he filed for governor and wound up winning two terms...
...People are coming back...
...And here at the state capitol, Republicans have transformed themselves into a viable opposition party, at least in the House...
...Jindal, elected to the U.S...
...The legislature initially rebuffed levee reform, but it passed in a special session after a public outcry...
...grated from India to Baton Rouge before he was born—and dark skin color...
...David Treen was elected governor in 1979...
...For a long time, they were a strong Democratic constituency...
...so, for the foreseeable future, Democrats won't be able to amass the 100,000-vote margin they needed for statewide victory...
...A young state-house member named David Vitter...
...Republicans now hold 40 of the 105 House seats and are targeting 21 seats in conservative areas now held by term-limited Democrats...
...They have a good chance of winning the Louisiana House for the first time since Reconstruction, thanks to another new political factor—term limits...
...Jin-dal won a Rhodes...
...But no more...
...Louisiana's weird election system requires candidates of all parties to run in a single primary...
...The upshot is that Louisiana is on the verge of a political realignment from Democratic control to Republican...
...she narrowly defeated Republican Bobby Jindal in 2003, partly thanks to voters turned off by Jindal's heritage—his parents emiFred Barnes is executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD and author of Rebel-in-Chief (Crown Forum...
...Now Vitter is leading the effort to transform Louisiana into a Republican state...
...He was by far the best candidate...
...There's a sense of urgency that the status quo is not acceptable...
...it didn't...
...Post-Katrina, "the Republican party is well poised to become the party of change and reform," says Vitter...
...Unless one gets 50 percent or more—this rarely happens—the top two go against each other in a runoff...
...The real change is not in the demographics, but in people's hopes and expectations," says Jindal...
...Term limits stand...
...And it has a fondness for populists and rogues, electing Huey and Earl Long and Edwin Edwards as governors...
...Now Republicans want to shrink the bloated number of assessors, another relic...
...Vitter got the 50 percent...
...President Bush won the state easily in 2000 and 2004, but so did Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996...
...He happened to resent having to run in a primary, then a runoff, and finally against a Republican...
...If we do things half right, we have a real shot at a Republican majority in the House," adds Vitter...
...The open primary soon brought Republican gains...
...Edwards is now in federal prison...
...Race should not be a major factor in 2007...
...Too bad...
...And the best guess is the vast majority were blacks, mostly poor, who vote lopsidedly Democratic...
...Legislators usually balk at setting a limit on how long they can stay in office...
...And that same year, Democratic congressman Billy Tauzin became a Republican and was reelected without Democratic opposition...
...Alexander had no trouble disposing of a last-minute Democratic challenger...
...There was no incentive to run as a Republican and no reason for Democrats to switch parties...
...This is the first time they've been able to wheel and deal and they're taking advantage," says Loyola's Renwick...
...They need to pick up 13 seats to take over the House...
...He had learned that his campaign was weakest in that part of the state...
...He preferred a mass primary, maybe a runoff, and nothing more...
...The main difference can be attributed to French Catholics, or Cajuns, who make up roughly one-third of the population...
...by FRED BARNES Baton Rouge LOUISIANA GOVERNOR Kathleen Blanco rented a fleet of buses a few weeks ago to take state legislators on a tour of New Orleans neighborhoods ravaged by Hurricane Katrina...
...New Orleans has fewer voters, and the Democratic machine is gone," a Republican consultant says...
...Democrats are growing anxious...
...He lined up 16 business leaders to donate $100,000 each for a war chest to promote a Republican takeover of the House and lured an experienced operative from Washington, John Diaz, to run the Committee to Elect a Republican Majority in Louisiana...
...It was Edwards who instigated the first big change—the creation in 1978 of the single, open primary—that spurred Republican growth...
...Tax increases require a two-thirds majority in Louisiana...
...Since the action was in the Democratic primary, candidates and voters flocked to it...
...But for now, the decline of New Orleans and term limits may be quite enough to propel them to victory in 2007...
...The 2007 election, Jindal says, is "a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" for Republicans...
...And blacks, who constitute another third of the population, still are...
...One reform Republicans championed was the consolidation of levee boards, a chronic source of cronyism and corruption...
...Instead, it evolved into a swing state, then stopped evolving...
...New orleans is only an hour's drive away, but fewer than half of the 143 legislators showed up for the trip...
...Even more than the governorship, Republicans are intensely focused on the Louisiana legislature in 2007...
...By tradition, the governor appoints party leaders, but Republicans insisted last year on electing their own, Jim Tucker...
Vol. 11 • May 2006 • No. 32
