The Republicans'.Poll Position
BARNES, FRED
The Republicans' Poll Position It's lousy, but that means less than you think. by FRED BARNES THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM on the 2006 midterm elections is that Republicans will take a bath. Because...
...In February 2002, only 9 percent said they would be voting against the president, and 34 said they'd be voting for him...
...Bush, of course, won't be on the ballot in November, but Republicans will...
...As such, they're worth a closer look...
...in the latest Fox News poll, Bush's approval rating is 44 percent...
...Show me an issue where Republicans have passion," says pollster Frank Luntz...
...On the first five, Republicans are faring poorly, he says...
...In 1994, Republicans trailed in party preference for most of the year, then wound up capturing 52 House seats...
...Thus they think the country is moving in the wrong direction...
...No matter what number you use, it shows Republicans are in real trouble," Luntz says...
...Luntz looks at six indicators that may affect Republicans in the midterm election: voters' desire for change, fear, anxiety, anger, sense of betrayal, and the presence of an alternative...
...Bad polls, after all, are merely polls...
...No doubt Republicans will do the same if Senator Hillary clinton is elected president...
...The only one, he suggests, is immigration, and Republicans are divided on it...
...The Gallup poll in January found that 61 percent of Americans felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, and only 36 percent thought it was on the right track...
...Many conservatives fear America's moral climate is worsening...
...Bush must perform well enough to lift his approval number close to 50 percent...
...For their part, Democrats have made the poll result partisan...
...what's happened to the right track/wrong track question that makes it less useful...
...This poll result, too, should not be taken too seriously, at least this far ahead of the November election...
...one theory of midterm elections is predicated on the presidential job approval number...
...This is supposed to measure the general feeling of well-being in the country, especially economic satisfaction...
...In February 2006, 31 percent said they intended to vote against Bush in the midterm election, 18 percent for him...
...if the economy is strong and the approval number is roughly 50 percent or better, the incumbent party should avert serious losses...
...Yet President Bush was reelected and Republicans picked up seats in the senate and the House...
...Who can't wait to vote...
...The Rasmussen poll uses likely voters and it has the president at 47 percent, still low but closer to the magic 50 percent...
...A negative finding was once regarded as proof incumbents were in trouble...
...Worse, this poll result may be a measure of voter intensity, with Democrats considerably more eager to vote than Republicans, if only to register their opposition to Bush by voting against his party...
...The new Fox poll found that 42 percent believe "it would be better for the country" if Democrats wrested control of congress from Republicans...
...At the moment, Democrats appear to be far more passionate than Republicans...
...A party can win with less...
...But on the sixth, Democrats have yet to emerge as a credible alternative to voters who otherwise might vote Republican...
...Despite the current troubles, Luntz goes on, Republicans could recover...
...It wasn't until the final weeks of the campaign that they surged ahead in preference...
...Perception of a strong economy, not just the reality, is important...
...For what it's worth, this poll result is bad news for Republicans, the incumbent party that holds the white House and congress...
...The latest Pew poll, for instance, asked respondents if their congressional vote would be a vote "against" Bush...
...And he must persuade the public that the economy truly is in solid shape...
...So there's only one sensible way to look at polls—skeptically...
...And in politics, poll numbers are not static...
...It's Democrats...
...They seize on the wrong direction number simply because they loathe President Bush and Republicans...
...The point here is that the minimum-50-percent-presiden-tial-approval rule is not ironclad...
...fied, 46 percent satisfied...
...On Election Day in 2004, Gallup found that 52 percent were dissatisFred Barnes is the executive editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD and the author of Rebel-in-Chief: Inside the Bold and Controversial Presidency of George W. Bush (Crown Forum...
...Thirty-four percent preferred Republicans to maintain control...
...So this is bad news for them...
...A hardy perennial of pollsters is whether the public is satisfied that the country is on the right track or is dissatisfied and thinks we're on the wrong track...
...But that's among registered voters and it's likely voters that really matter...
...Bush's approval rating in the Fox poll was 36 percent three months ago and has climbed 8 percentage points since...
...That leads to the important matter of voter intensity...
...But it's not a fair measure of the optimism or pessimism of Americans...
...Because of the Abramoff scandal, an unpopular president, and low morale, Republicans have the political stars aligned perfectly against them—or so it seems...
...The polls often cited as pointing toward a massive Republican defeat, however, are not quite conclusive...
...A third poll—one particularly relevant to midterm elections—gauges party preference...
...Perhaps Republicans will weather the sixth year of the Bush presidency and avoid disaster in November...
...It turned out Republicans were far more energized and likely to vote on Election Day than Democrats...
...in 2004, Bush was also at 47 percent and became the first president since FDR to win reelection while his party also picked up House and Senate seats...
...But polls are tricky things, often more problematic than predictive...
...For one thing, it measures all sorts of dissatisfaction...
...True, they are hardly encouraging to Republicans...
...he asks...
Vol. 11 • February 2006 • No. 22
