THE SOCIAL PANORAMA OF THE FUTURE

Barnes, Harry Elmer

The Social Panorama Of The Future By HARRY ELMER BARNES SOCIAL CLASSES, social status, and social values , are likely to witness marked changes as a result of the impact of the fourth...

...For the first time in the history of man, we have the mechanical equipment to make this possible...
...The "magic touch of property," as the mainspring of economic effort, will be supplanted by pride in technological efficiency and the spirit of craftsmanship...
...As it attained maturity and preeminence, it created and cherished certain values and ideals, expressing themselves mainly in the sanctity of private property, the worship of wealth, conspicuous waste and display, and ostentatious avoidance of la-bor, all so well described in Thorstein Veblen's immortal Theory of the Leisure Class...
...For the first time in human experience, the quest of power and prestige will be linked up with the service of humanity rather than with the exploitation and decimation of mankind...
...Social aristocracy and leadership have always been bestowed upon those who perform the most highly esteemed social functions in any era of history...
...This transformation of social classes is only natural and one which we • might expect in the course of the economic changes which confront us...
...The transformation of social classes and social organization will bring parallel changes in social values...
...Gregory Zilboorg has done well to emphasize, the mythical atrocities of the last World War have become the realities and commonplaces of this war...
...If and when our technology can be freed from the fetters of a scarcity economic ideology, such an achievement will be inevitable...
...As Dr...
...While the long-range outlook for changes in human values is promising and uplifting, such is far from the case with the immediate prospect...
...Born, as it will be, of a frightful duel, fought out with the most lethal weapons of the most destructive and nerve-shattering type, it will be a rough era, with little benefit of humanist values...
...The sanctity of vested rights will be replaced by the practical value of social functions performed...
...The New Middle Class' Whatever may be the social organization of the future, it does seem probable, then, that it will bring about the extinction of the social hierarchy based primarily on wealth and property, which has prevailed under capitalism...
...Modern societies aim at protecting economic rights, while leaving economic functions, except in moments of abnormal emergency, to fulfill themselves...
...To bombard an open town would have been criminal lunacy in 1913...
...William Henry Chamberlin logically predicts that the war will inevitably beget a postwar attitude which will have little regard for the finer human values: "The postwar age will be hardboiled...
...Between Us And Abundance But the great responsibility of the next generation or two will be to raise the whole of civilized mankind to what Plato called the "pig-level," in other words, to assure them material abundance and physical security...
...A society which aimed at making the acquisition of wealth contingent upon the discharge of social obligations, which sought to proportion remuneration to service and denied it to those by whom no service was performed, which inquired first not what men possess but...
...With the decline of capitalism and the development of economic planning under the expert managers, this social hierarchy is bound to disintegrate...
...Under the institutional impact of the fourth world-revolution we are likely to have not only marked changes in social classes, but also a drastic reorganization of society and a redirection of social motivation and values...
...Under the profit system of capitalism, it was equally logical that the money-makers should be the social aristocracy...
...In the days when the salvation of the soul was the most sought-after goal, the priesthood was the inevitable social aristocracy...
...In his notable book, The Acquisitive Society, the eminent British economist and publicist, R. H. Tawney, has clearly contrasted our current acquisitive, non-functional society, with a society organized on a functional basis...
...Hence, social prestige will no longer be accompanied by conspicuous and ostentatious indolence...
...If a managerial system is set up in the future, there are likely to be only two social classes, namely the managers and the managed...
...is likely that talent will be more surely recognized than at present and that the more capable members of society will rise to the top far more readily than they do today...
...what they can make or create or achieve, might be called a Functional Society, because in such a society the main subject of social emphasis would be performance of functions...
...Nothing stands between us and abundance today save the effective determination to utilize our machines for the benefit of all rather than for the opulence of the few...
...They may, possibly, both call themselves "the new middle class," as Vice-President Wallace has already suggested...
...The first task of the future, then, is to provide a social and economic order which will enable us to use our unique technological resources in such a manner as to provide plenty for all...
...Of course, the managers will be drawn from the mass of those managed...
...A libertarianism, akin to anarchy and an instrument of social oppression and economic exploitation, will be replaced by a socialized conception of liberty, which gives first place to the assurance of security...
...In a memorable article in the New York Times of June 19, 1936, on "The Tragic Decline of the Humane Ideal," Andre Maurois stressed the terrifying debasement of human attitudes which the first World War had produced: "During the war of 1914 humanity once more served a gruesome apprenticeship to violence...
...Social status will depend upon achievements rather than upon possessions...
...The "tough boys" who will dominate the political and social scene can hardly be expected to have any keen or subtle regard for freedom and liberty, especially the freedom or liberty of anybody who opposes their ideas and demands...
...A cooperative or a socialistic managerialism could combine both efficient production and a more democratic social order than humanity has thus far enjoyed...
...There are not likely to be many more of Matthew Josephson's Robber Barons, Ferdinand Lundberg's Sixty Families, Simon Haxey's England's Money Lords, the Two Hundred Families of Trance, or the like...
...Viewed broadly, this will constitute the transformation from a functionless, non-functional, or anti-functional acquisitive society, based on "natural" rights, privilege, exploitation, vested interests, absentee own...
...But in every case, whether it be salvation, conquest, or money-making, there has always been one dominating motive on the part of the leaders of society, namely, the quest of power and social prestige...
...In the future managerial era, the efficient production and distribution of goods will, for a time, be the chief motivation of society, and hence it is sensible to expect that the managers who preside over this process will dominate society...
...This class built up its riches, status, prestige, and power on the basis of free enterprise under the capitalistic system...
...Society will aim to provide material necessities with a minimum of effort, and will then concentrate its main effort and interest upon those things which lie above the pig-level of animal comforts, however essential the latter may be...
...ership, and an obsession with .personal aggrandizement and enrichment, to a functional society...
...With the very doubtful exception of one or two top generals, the man who has most decisively captured the public imagination is Henry Kaiser, who is popularly regarded as the superlative manager that the war has produced in the United States...
...More men are engaged, the war is longer, the conflicts are often more bloody, and the ruthlessness is incomparably greater...
...But to us, who have become familiar with the idea through war itself and through photographs and films of warfare, it has become no more than an 'unavoidable necessity.'" A Hardboiled Age Ahead There can be little doubt that the debasement of the finer and more humane values will proceed much further in the present World War and its aftermath...
...The motive which gives color and quality to their public institutions, to their policy and political thoughts, is not the attempt to secure the fulfillment of tasks undertaken for the public service, but to increase the opportunities open to individuals of attaining the objects which they -conceive to be advantageous to themselves...
...Most impressive and important of all, economic effort and productive labor will come to be regarded as a means to an end, rather than an end in itself...
...It will be the same in the managerial era, except that there may be more benefits for society associated with this possession and expression of power, namely, greater production of goods and increased abundance and security for all mankind...
...As an economy of abundance, under managerialism, gives us more and more leisure, those classes and professions which minister to the arts of leisure—educators, philosophers, recreation experts, musicians, architects, artists, authors, and the like—will assume a greater importance in society...
...The tiger which has tasted blood no longer hesitates to attack man...
...Security, leisure, and its opportunities, rather than gambling for richness by the few or grueling labor by the masses for mere subsistence, will henceforth become the main goal of human effort...
...A planned economy under public control will no longer permit the accumulation of vast personal fortunes...
...Public interest and respect are now showered upon those who are operating our war economy, rather than upon absentee owners with great fortunes or those who are listed in the Social Register...
...The Social Panorama Of The Future By HARRY ELMER BARNES SOCIAL CLASSES, social status, and social values , are likely to witness marked changes as a result of the impact of the fourth world-revolution...
...It is obvious that the more democratic the type of managerialism which prevails, the more democratic will be the society of the managerial area...
...The dominant class since the 16th Century, in countries which have participated in modern economic developments, has been the so-called middle class of merchants and businessmen—the bourgeoisie, as they are known in academic jargon...
...Likewise, in a managerial era, one's status and prestige will depend primarily upon his proved ability to achieve results through personal efforts...
...Changes In Social Values The competitive order, tied to scarcity and to limitation of output, will give way before an economic society devoted to efficient production and the creation of abundance...
...Such societies may be called Acquisitive Societies, because their whole tendency and interest and preoccupation is to promote the acquisition of wealth...
...Incidentally, this has an important bearing on the destiny of liberty after the war...
...In an era when war and conquest dominated the social order, leadership was naturally vested in the warrior class...
...In a managerial society, where ability counts and the capacity for leadership is at a premium, it...
...Moreover, ah economy which is designed to provide security and a decent standard of living for all cannot tolerate the incredible wastes and vulgar display which have characterized the more fortunate members of the middle class in modern times...
...men who have learned to kill no longer have the same respect for human life...

Vol. 8 • July 1944 • No. 28


 
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