VICTORY IS NOW NEARER BUT NOT IN SIGHT'
SEELY, Lt. Comdr. C. S.
'Victory Is Now Nearer But Not In Sight' By LT. COMDR. C. S. SEELY THE "Second Front" is developing quite as well as can be expected. Bridgeheads are being enlarged, and reinforcements are...
...Bridgeheads are being enlarged, and reinforcements are arriving rapidly and in great force...
...He is now confronted with the same situation that faced the Russians during the Summer and Fall of 1941...
...Nearly all of the present German leaders—possibly more than 100,000 men—almost certainly believe that Germany must win the war, er they shall die as vicious, degraded, unredeemable criminals...
...He will now have to weaken his defenses, none too strong anywhere, in the North and South to meet our advance in the West...
...The opinions and assertions expressed above are the private oms of the writer and are not to be construed as official or reflecting the views of the Navy Department or the naval service at large...
...The war is now too far advanced for traps or surprises that will affect the outcome...
...Withdrawals Imminent Hitler certainly has, all told, at leaSt 8,000,000 good, fully trained and equipped soldiers, and not less than 5,000,000 of these are Germans...
...But the 3,000,000 men he does have for use in the West constitute a formidable obstacle...
...We must outnumber the Nazis to beat them...
...None of these developments seems probable within the immediate future, and we should not base our plans on any of them...
...The Nazis almost certainly have at least 3,000,000 men to meet our invasion, and these men have the advantage of fortifications and the knowledge of the territory where the battles are to be fought...
...They are fighting a most ruthless win-or-die war, and they must be expected to continue to fight such a war until long after Germany is invaded by millions of United Nations soldiers...
...We probably can not seriously threaten Hitler until we take Paris, and the Nazis are not at all likely to surrender that city without a fight as they did Rome...
...None of these men can be used against us in northern France, Belgium, Holland, or western Germany...
...He must fall back...
...It would seem that he cannot much longer avoid these withdrawals without inviting disaster...
...This is as much as the most optimistic of us have any reason to hope for...
...He will have to keep at least 4,000,000 soldiers on the Russian front, and about a million in the Balkans, in the Alps, and in various other vital areas'in the North and South which must be protected at all costs...
...However, there is nothing in the present situation to indicate that we may soon break through to Berlin, or even to the Tours-Paris-Anfcwerp-Amsterdam line...
...It seems clear that victory, while not in sight, has been brought closer by our invasion of France...
...And there is not much chance of any surprises developing which will appreciably aid either us or the Nazis...
...I do not believe Paris can be taken before we get at least 2,000,000 men in France...
...Paris is one of the very few cities in the world protected by a series of strong forts...
...The outer limits of this area have been described in my previous articles in The Progressive...
...However, one or more of the following developments could soon end the war: Crack-up of German morale, a large section of the Nazis staging a "Badoglio," hysteria due to fear of Russian revenge making the Nazis surrender to us, a great uprising of Western Europe's masses, American-British ability to advance when the Nazis make a determined stand at points which especially favor the defenders (such as Cassino, Anzio, etc...
...It certainly is beyond the bounds of probability...
...Organization apparently has been of the highest order...
...Actually so far, practically all of the fighting has been south of the Havre-Paris-Belfort line (mentioned in my Apr...
...undisclosed United Nations strength, some unexpected Nazi weakness, or a great Russian breakthrough on a wide front...
...that they have no choice but to win or die in the attempt...
...We must keep the Nazis guessing as to where we will strike next—what our plans are—until we land at least a million men in France...
...Obviously the armies, navies, and air forces of America and Britain are working together as a smoothly running team...
...And almost certainly some Nazi troops will have to be withdrawn from the northern end of tiie Russian front to forestall early defeat in France...
...Hitler may now be expected to move out of Italy, Greece, Albania, Finland, Norway, northern R*ussia, and southern France, as quickly as he can without seriously damaging the morale of his supporters, and "dig in" behind the walls of his "inner fortress...
...These leaders no doubt hope to save themselves by a long drawn out war, leading to a stalemate...
...It will be necessary for us to move cautiously and consolidate our gains as we advance...
...This will at least make it possible for the Russians to resume their advance earlier than would normally have bees expected...
...After this we may be able to push on to Paris, but it probably will be best to wait until we get 2,000,000 men over before we take any grave risks, as such a drive will entail...
...There is no doubt whatever about this...
...Of course, only a few of the 3,000,000 men are now at or even near the Western front, but we must expect to meet all of them before we arrive at the German border...
...Lack of airpower is their only known weakness at the moment...
...If we can maintain only our present bridgeheads we will have every reason to consider our invasion a very important victory...
...24 article as one of Hitler's strong lines), and until we get a million men north of this line, Hitler cannot be -considered in serious danger from the West...
...The known facts of the situation obviously warrant such a conclusion...
...It is not at all probable that Hitler is setting any traps for us to fall into...
...From now on we can expect only to fight battles patterned after those we have already fought in Italy...
...Even if, by some terrible misfortune, now almost inconceivable, we are finally forced out of France, we still have shortened the war by our invasion, as Hitler cannot push us into the sea without weakening his eastern front to such an extent that the Russians will be able to break through...
...The whole operation indicates exceedingly close and harmonious cooperation among all the elements which make up our invasion forces...
...The Nazis have considered everything, and they are not playing a game in which the loser loses only a war...
...For the first time since Munich, Hitler is in danger from the West...
...Incidentally, none of the other Nazi-held cities, including Brussels, Antwerp, Amsterdam, Cologne, Coblenz, or even Berlin are really fortified cities...
...Paris is the strongest fortified great (over a million inhabitants) city in the world...
...No Major Traps Possible It is not entirely beyond the realm of possibility that the war in Europe will end this year, but it almost is...
...Mo Break-Through Expected Hitler's position has been made much more difficult by our invasion...
Vol. 8 • June 1944 • No. 25
