REAGAN II
REAGAN II *You ain't seen nuttin* yet* BY THE EDITORS OF THE PROGRESSIVE bout half way through his raucous act, the late Jimmy Durante would rasp out, "You ain't seen nuttin' yet!" That meant the...
...Iff Reagan's triumph is to achieve lasting impact, he will have to subject his ideological preferences to the discipline of political reality The Administration's attempts to ignore or skirt civil rights law—trashing the U.S...
...Some of the ultraconservative priorities will certainly be addressed in the next four years: Homosexual rights will be assailed, Government aid to religious schools will be pressed, sex education in the schools may come under fire, funding for abortions may be cut...
...The rebels continue to operate successfully throughout much of the countryside, downing Salvadoran helicopters, capturing villages, and frequently blacking out the capital city, San Salvador...
...On one side stand the career diplomats at the State Department, an occasional Pentagon' realist, Secretary of State George Shultz, and National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane...
...With a budget exempt even from Congressional scrutiny, the CIA has undertaken some fifty covert operations in nations ranging from Mauritius and Suriname to Nicaragua and Afghanistan...
...Like many other difficulties now in the incubation stage, the balanced-budget amendment would come home to roost long after Reagan had passed from the scene...
...As it moves to stifle dissent, the White House will also continue efforts to tighten Government secrecy—another way of heading off criticism of the Administration...
...Of those who voted for Reagan last November, only 6 per cent cited his conservatism as an important reason for their support, according to a New York Times exit poll...
...Associate Editors John Buell, Keenen Peck, and Matthew Rothschild, and Editorial Interns Steven J. Hoekstra and Marcia Z. Nelson...
...The most obvious remaining targets for budget cutbacks are such entitlement programs as Medicare and Social Security, which take more than 40 per cent of the budget...
...Reagan will not turn back in his quest for U.S...
...losses...
...It seems quite possible, in fact, that talks will reopen, and that they will culminate in a new agreement of some sort...
...In fact, if South African black resistance were to intensify, U.S...
...And it will have to show clearly that our destiny, as individuals and as a nation, is inseparable from the well-being of the rest of the world, so that any program of national salvation that depends on violence and exploitation of others will ultimately destroy us, too...
...It is not difficult to visualize, as part of the second Reagan Administration, a climate of repression in which the Government, business, and the leadership of organized labor collaborate to purge dissidents within union ranks and among the general population...
...Reagan simply insists the region "is at our doorstep"—a rationale for every sort of U.S...
...Even with the help of such repressive measures, a Reagan-style national industrial strategy would in all likelihood be doomed to failure...
...economy will thrive if American industry manages to grasp a larger share of domestic and foreign markets...
...The shape of things to come is suggested by Washington's recent initiatives in this area: restricting visits by foreign dignitaries known to differ with the Administration...
...Almost everything came up roses for Reagan on November 6: Though he might have preferred to capture control of the House of Representatives and strengthen his party's tenuous hold on the Senate, no one could deny that he won a great personal victory, carrying forty-nine of the fifty states and about 60 per cent of the popular vote...
...The assassination of opposition leader Benigno Aquino in August 1983 by members of the Philippine army brought to a boil the unrest that had been brewing throughout the country...
...Since November 6, they have made several overtures to the Reagan Administration to resume the negotiations on strategic arms control that were broken off a couple of years ago...
...neither SALT I nor the unratified but mutually observed SALT II treaty achieved anything but token limitations...
...The FBI seems to be stepping up its harassment of political organizations...
...military supremacy over the Soviet Union, since such a posture is necessary for the United States to reclaim the position of global dominance it lost in the jungles of Indochina...
...The overwhelming anti-Reagan vote cast by blacks last November testified to anger at Administration policies that have been blatantly racist in impact, if not in overt rhetoric...
...A U.S...
...In the likely event that U.S...
...His remaining option is to increase taxes...
...Can a program of that kind be devised and sold to the American people in the next four years...
...arms and U.S...
...Legislative changes in the last couple of years have applied several Band-Aids to the system: Congress froze physicians' fees for Medicare patients and fixed the amounts of hospital reimbursement...
...Such optimism, reminiscent of U.S...
...Military expenditures, which he has vowed to increase sharply, and interest payments on the national debt, over which he has no control, account for more than 40 per cent of the budget...
...Any teaching of peace prior to His return is heresy...
...In its assaults on the Constitution, the Administration will be able to count on a large measure of support from Congress and the Federal judiciary...
...To financiers, the mounting national debt and increased private competition for capital suggest the inevitability of higher interest rates, and these, in turn, must bring on a new spiral of inflation...
...disappointments may await those who look forward to the President's remaining turn on stage...
...aid to the government in Pretoria might well increase The Philippines During the next four years, the Reagan Administration will face a serious foreign policy crisis in the Philippines...
...That's what the Right and much of the American establishment are counting on...
...The elderly, who gave Reagan his strongest margin of support on Election Day, are likely to be hurt by revisions in Medicare Social Safety Suffers a Net Loss For the poor, whose ranks swelled by some six million during the first Reagan term, the outlook for the next four years may, paradoxically, turn out to be relatively better: The largest cuts have already been made in food stamps, Aid to Families with Dependent Children, child nutrition and school lunch funds, and public housing subsidies...
...The other pretext was rehearsed in Grenada: U.S...
...Once the Sandinistas retaliated, the Reagan Administration would give the marching orders...
...And if consumer spending declines, business will not choose to invest and expand...
...It's difficult to blame them...
...Thayer also commanded the services "to continue improving their ability to combat guerrilla insurgencies and terrorism," and told the Army and Air Force to accelerate the procurement of combat-zone hospitals...
...At worst, Reagan's Act II may turn out to be a horror show—a global Grand Guignol of nuclear devastation...
...Is that what Ronald Reagan had in mind when he invoked Durante's patented applause line toward the end of his reelection campaign...
...Reagan is fond of boasting that not an inch of soil has been "lost" to the communists on his watch...
...So while we can certainly expect the President to continue to appeal to the most primitive sentiments on the Right, he will have to subject his preferences to the discipline of political reality...
...Business analysts believe the deficit is the principal barrier to further growth...
...Israel depends on U.S...
...In the final hours of the Ninety-eighth Congress, the House and Senate showed where they are heading: They sanctioned preventive detention and authorized the Justice Department to prosecute any Federal employee who discloses information from a Government computer without prior approval...
...As Reagan attempts to transform his immense personal popularity into a broadly based ideology— a task he must fulfill if his reelection triumph is to have lasting significance for the Right—he must maintain a careful balance between the "religious revival" that helped keep him in office and a backlash against the more severe proposals of the fundamentalists...
...It is conceivable that in such circumstances, the debilitated U.S...
...While public discussion focuses on the MX missile, the emplacement of Euromissiles, and Reagan's plans to push ahead with laser weapons and space-war technology, the greatest danger is that a system like Trident II will encourage Washington's war planners to risk subjecting the Soviets to nuclear blackmail...
...In analyzing that vote, Representative Charles B. Rangel, New York Democrat, advanced the feeble hope that black support will help the Democratic majority in the House turn back Reagan's most regressive proposals...
...If the rebels were to score significant battlefield victories, the Administration would face a difficult choice: drastically increase U.S...
...role have faded...
...More Clout for the Soldiers and Spooks The militarization off U.S...
...It was a vote of confidence in an economy that has rebounded from the depths of recession over the last couple of years, and in a set of cheery assurances that prosperity will be sustained...
...The next four years hold out little hope for a change in policy...
...Shultz warns that defeating terrorists could entail the ultimate denial of rights—"the loss of life of some innocent people...
...That program will also have to find ways of giving citizens and communities a greater voice in shaping their own lives and destinies...
...It has failed to solve any of the economy's underlying productivity problems...
...Their opposition—coupled with the effectiveness of the leftist New People's Army, which is gaining ground in the provinces—spells trouble for Reagan no less than for Marcos...
...Inevitably, the official response would be repression...
...The pretext for an invasion, or at least for bombing sorties on Managua, could be presented in one of two ways...
...Unfortunately, it was abandoned by the Administration at the first sign of resistance by Israel and the Arab states...
...Such discretionary programs as foreign aid, housing assistance, veterans' benefits, and financial help to students have been trimmed to the' point where they make up only about 17 per cent...
...In the meantime, however, Reagan faces the frustrating task of diminishing a deficit now estimated to exceed $200 billion—frustrating because where the budget is concerned, the President has left himself little room to maneuver...
...Though they are hardly doves, these officials seem to recognize that a full-scale invasion would be militarily difficult, economically draining, domestically disruptive, and internationally damaging...
...The Judiciary can be expected to adopt a handsoff approach to the problems of women, the poor, the powerless, and racial and political minorities The Middle East Reagan's Middle East peace initiative, sent up as a trial balloon in 1982, may well have been the most potentially constructive foreign policy move of his first term...
...But the world market grows slowly, if it grows at all, so any expansion of the U.S...
...Ambassador to the United Nations, was abstaining on a resolution condemning apartheid...
...Most of the voters clearly preferred Ronald Reagan's rosy vision of the American future...
...Surveillance, Secrecy, Suppression of Dissent Either a major military venture or a tailspin in the economy would trigger widespread dissent here at home...
...invasion of Nicaragua is not inevitable...
...In key areas of policy, the White House assigns more weight to the military's opinion than to the State Department's...
...economy has defied analysis even by the experts who apply sophisticated econometric models...
...weakening the Freedom of Information Act...
...The Headlong Rush Toward Final Judgment Reagan regards the Soviet Union as "the focus of evil in the modern world," and says we are "enjoined by scripture and Jesus Christ to oppose such evil with all our might...
...In one of his book's more ominous passages, Phillips asserts that the success of industrial strategy in Japan is partly attributable to the "mildly authoritarian nature of Japanese politics...
...President Marcos is facing health, economic, and political problems," Admiral William J. Crowe, head of the U.S...
...The President's public statements leave little room for comfort...
...in the final version, acid rain presented "little direct risk to human health...
...In these programs, there simply isn't much give left...
...These are the most obvious arenas for U.S...
...policy planners is that any new upheaval in the region—a struggle for the succession to Ayatollah Khomeini's rule in Iran, for example-may provide the opportunity for establishing, perpetuating, and expanding a permanent American military presence...
...Though less visible, the lower echelons of the armed forces are also asserting a leadership role in foreign affairs...
...But the greater likelihood is that the House will again find itself in partisan stalemate with the Republican-controlled Senate over civil rights issues...
...There has been a recent convergence of developments that, if continued, will promote eventual success in getting the insurgents under control," Under Secretary of Defense Fred C. Ikle declared in October...
...The President's second term may bring fewer outright offensives against nature—if only because the controversies over former Interior Secretary James Watt and former EPA Administrator Anne Gorsuch Bur-ford galvanized the opposition—but the Government's course will speed further deterioration of the air, water, and land...
...And Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger, who emerged from Reagan's first term as the most influential member of the Cabinet, took pains to declare on Veterans' Day, "We must never again send Americans into battle unless we plan to win...
...aid to the South African government might increase...
...We are obligated to do so," Gorman responded...
...None of these indicators points to sustained economic growth...
...Legislative control of the CIA will remain toothless in the Ninety-ninth Congress...
...Would we become militarily involved...
...The EPA paper discussed the "threat to human welfare" posed by acid rain...
...pressure—a not-so secret war conducted by the CIA, the mining of Nicaragua's harbors, millions of dollars to the contras, and a rhetorical war of nerves—the Reagan Administration is itching for the real thing: an all-out attack on the Sandinista government...
...Was he promising much more of the same—enough to thrill his fans and send his detractors into deep despair...
...No attack by the United States followed because it became clear that no MiGs had been delivered, but the Reagan Administration had softened up American public opinion for the plans ahead...
...References to several anticipated environmental regulations were modified or dropped...
...Among the diverse tax schemes now under discussion, the most radical—various proposals to institute a "flat tax" and reduce the categories of exemptions and deductions—are the least likely to be adopted...
...This would, presumably, satisfy the ardent advocates and divert their political energies, while diminishing the likelihood of great public upheaval...
...At the Supreme Court, all eyes are on the five Justices who have reached the age of seventy-five...
...The concept assumes that the U.S...
...Some further reductions in these programs may be possible, but the savings would be trivial and the political costs enormous...
...No matter how deftly disguised, the full weight of a value-added tax would fall squarely on the shoulders of consumers...
...Whether it takes place will depend, in part, on the outcome of a fierce struggle being waged among various elements within the Reagan Administration—the State Department, the Pentagon, the CIA, and the National Security Council...
...If the Senate confirms his nomination as Attorney General, the Justice Department will be headed by a man who once described the ACLU as "the criminals' lobby...
...The strength of the economy obviously played an important part in Reagan's reelection triumph...
...Instead, Washington's attention focuses on the Persian Gulf, the continuing war of attrition between Iran and Iraq, and the potential threat to the U.S...
...Even as Nobel Peace Prize winner Desmond Tutu was describing U.S...
...The result could be a return to the double-digit unemployment levels of the early 1980s...
...South Africa The Reagan reelection was good news for Prime Minister P.W...
...Contrast that comfortable and comforting set of assumptions with this grim assessment by a Democratic member of Congress, Representative Richard Ottinger of New York: "We are losing democracy very rapidly in the United States...
...The process of Congressional adoption and state ratification could take years...
...It is conceivable that the debilitated U.S...
...The "potentially significant health problem" of indoor pollution—from asbestos fibers, formaldehyde, and radon gas—became, in the revised edition, a source of discomfort caused by cigarettes, building materials, and cooking devices...
...In planning for the fiscal 1985 Pentagon budget, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Thayer "has ordered the armed forces to plan for expanded operations in Central America and has placed new emphasis on projecting American military power to the Persian Gulf," The New York Times reported...
...That meant the best was still to come—the loudest banging on the honky-tonk piano, the fastest soft-shoe, the most rousing rendition of "Ink-a-Dink-a-Doo...
...International economic disarray and a domestic surge in joblessness will obviously bring serious political consequences...
...In the name of "national security," Americans would be asked once more to accept austerity, to obey authority, to sacrifice their own well-being, and to endorse a course of international conduct that defies the nation's best traditions and ignores its highest aspirations...
...High jobless rates would revive demands for development of a new economic policy...
...the 1984 total is expected to surpass Richard Nixon's record of 285...
...The Russians seem understandably apprehensive about that possibility...
...We are becoming more and more like the Russians every day—a militaristic society, a society that fears and doesn't trust its people, that runs secret wars, that denies people information, that wants to give all the people who work for the Government lie-detector tests...
...Similarly, the Administration's atavistic economic program finds its constituency among those who resent the economic pressure to which they have been subjected by rising costs...
...To overcome it, advocates would have to emphasize the distinction Phillips draws between "industrial policy" and "industrial strategy"—the latter, in his view, involving neither Government planning nor Government control...
...Justice Harry Blackmun, a liberal by today's standards, says there are "bound to be vacancies...
...What's Left to Cut, What's Left to Tax...
...The people at the top of this Administration are fascinated with covert operations and find it easier to approve them than to discuss complicated diplomatic matters," one top Administration official recently complained...
...The President seems proud of his willingness to push the button if necessary, come what may...
...Botha's South African government...
...It will certainly be a formidable task...
...Capital spending declined substantially in the two years following Reagan's tax cut, and the recent upsurge in capital outlays has largely been confined to replacement of worn-out plant and equipment...
...One consequence was a decline in the official unemployment rate...
...And we have an economic elitism that is very much like Robin Hood-in-reverse—it steals from the poor and gives to the rich, and then it is supposed to trickle down so that everybody participates...
...Did he mean to assure us that his second term as President of the United States would surpass his first in fancy footwork, rhetoric, and razzmatazz...
...Reagan's replacements—presumably right-wing jurists—will have a "real bearing" on the high court, Blackmun predicts...
...In almost every area of public policy, severe Contributors to this article were Editor Erwin Knoll...
...Every deduction has a constituency...
...Ultimately, there will be new revolutionary pressures in the developing countries and new threats that the extensive loans floated by U.S...
...But this group is at odds with the ideologues, the military zealots, and the kooks—CIA Director Casey, Defense Secretary Weinberger, and General Gorman...
...While economic demand has increased, productivity remains static...
...Middle- and working-class Americans who thought they were voting their pocketbooks when they cast their ballots for Reagan may soon have reason to entertain second thoughts...
...The American Civil Liberties Union says its affiliate offices report "a resurgence of political spying by local police forces," which take their cue from Federal law enforcers...
...Feminists will need to regroup before they can block the backlash that Reagan will continue to encourage...
...America's 'Doorsteps' All Over the World Central America looms large as the first and most likely target of U.S...
...Few will know, for instance, what the Defense Department deleted from the 15,000 books, articles, and speeches it reviewed prior to public release in 1983...
...Reagan may even precipitate the ultimate calamity: atomic war and its deadly child, the nuclear winter...
...In addition, U.S...
...Still, the Reagan recovery seems to be on extremely shaky ground...
...Like many other difficulties now in the incubation stage, the balanced budget amendment may come home to roost long after Reagan has passed from the scene The financial markets have not been taken in by Reagan's intimations that a magic wand will wipe out the unprecedented Federal deficits of his Administration...
...Perhaps the most ominous of the new weapons systems in the works, though not the one that has attracted the most attention, is the Trident II missile, which will—as the Pentagon has acknowledged—"nearly double the capability of each Trident submarine...
...If any sort of flat tax were enacted in the next four years, it would undoubtedly perpetuate many of the present system's exemptions and deductions, making the income tax considerably more regressive than it is today...
...Though older voters may have been soothed by Reagan's promise to leave Social Security at current levels, they are likely to be hurt by revisions in Medicare...
...economic support...
...if the House and Senate intelligence committees were willing to roll over and play dead when the Administration mined Nicaraguan harbors and distributed terrorism handbooks, they will probably close their eyes to future international crimes...
...Will Reagan's second term be characterized by still greater efforts to implement the policies of the conservative fundamentalist community...
...The Administration's approach to environmental issues will reflect the shrunken EPA agenda: The Government will provide as little enforcement as possible of existing regulations, and will deregulate whenever that becomes politically possible...
...He has said that Armageddon may be coming soon, and his close ties to such extremists as Jerry Falwell and James Robison are common knowledge...
...The measure of the new Congress will be its response to cuts already being talked about for veterans' benefits, low-income housing assistance, and student aid...
...Taking its lead from the Supreme Court, the judiciary can be expected to adopt a hands-off approach to the problems of women, the poor, the powerless, and racial and political minorities...
...loosened controls on aid to South Africa's military and police (including approval of the sale of 2,500 shock batons to the South African police), and allowed the export of high-technology computers that could be used for nuclear-related programs...
...Such apprehensions have sufficed to push up real interest—the spread between the stated interest charge and the rate of inflation—depressing the housing industry and other segments of the economy that depend heavily on borrowing...
...There is cause for concern in the Republic of the Philippines...
...The composition of the intelligence panels will change with the new Congress, but that will not necessarily strengthen their ability to police the CIA...
...But such nickel-and-dime savings will hardly impede the growth of Medicare spending, which totaled $62.7 billion in fiscal 1984...
...Women who might have influenced the character and agenda of the new Congress took a thorough drubbing in November, and large segments of the women's movement expended resources and credibility backing candidates who lost...
...Strongman Ferdinand Marcos simply cannot last forever...
...In sharp contrast to blacks, America's elderly provided the President with his strongest margin of support on Election Day...
...Similar rationales will apply if other major resources are threatened by Third World revolutions or by foreign governments rejecting colonial traditions of subservience to Western economic priorities...
...When the proposal came back from the Office of Management and Budget, it scarcely resembled the EPA's original document, which one official there had characterized as a "minimal agenda...
...The President will certainly renew the CIA's blank check in the meetings of his National Security Planning Group, the high-level body that reviews covert actions...
...But even if all of the elderly Justices were to remain on the bench for the next four years, the Supreme Court would continue on a course that, in the words of Harvard Law Professor Laurence Tribe, affirms "the almost boundless authority of Government over the individual and of the executive over the other branches...
...Medicare is a likelier target, but also one that is bound to be politically sensitive...
...But if there is a point on which the government of Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization are in full agreement, it is the crucial role of the United States...
...But is it any more visionary and "unrealistic" than the one they bought last November 6? 0...
...Similarly, the intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA, have been endowed with new legitimacy and influence...
...officials floated the false rumor that the Soviet Union was unloading MiG fighter planes in Corinto, Nicaragua...
...Last fall, the Environmental Protection Agency finished drafting its program for the next few years...
...Such censorship inevitably deprives Americans of information they should have...
...Because the emotional debate over abortion rights draws headlines—and sparks intense support for reproductive freedom—the Administration may find it easier to appease its hardcore fundamentalist constituency by focusing on economic measures: stopping the drive for comparable worth, implementing a subminimum wage, or evading the labor laws by authorizing more "industrial home work," as the Labor Department recently did for commercial knitters in New England...
...Jesus said there will be wars and rumors of wars until the end," according to Robison, who meets with Reagan and delivered the invocation at the opening session of the 1984 Republican Convention...
...Either disbursements will have to be reduced by 30 per cent or financing will have to be increased by 40 per cent," the system's trustees wrote in a 1983 report...
...Under political pressure, even the Reagan Administration might devise some sort of public jobs program, but it is more likely that the Government would turn to other forms of intervention...
...Economic exigencies—the pressures of the budget deficit—are more likely than arms control negotiations to derail the Administration's military spending plans...
...Unless the President is persuaded to abandon his insistence on higher military expenditures, he will find it extraordinarily difficult to impose spending cuts of $40 billion—and that would be only 20 per cent of the projected deficit...
...interference...
...After four years of U.S...
...In a recent book, Staying on Top: The Business Case for a National Industrial Strategy, conservative commentator Kevin Phillips argues that many business executives fear Government direction of the economy but favor a more affirmative Federal role, including more support for technological research, export subsidies, and relaxed antitrust laws—all measures intended to strengthen U.S...
...If the electorate did not embrace the specifics of his program—and the opinion polls tended to show it did not—it certainly gave him a resounding vote of confidence...
...There is very little reason to believe, however, that any such agreement will impose significant curbs on the nuclear arms race...
...If an effective response to Reaganism is to be formulated in the next four years, it will have to put forward an economic program that eases the burden on workers, and even on the middle class...
...In this respect, at least, the perceptions of the economic elite are likely to coincide with the demands of grass-roots groups pushing for a constitutional amendment to require a balanced Federal budget...
...At the same time, criminal suspects will be stripped of those remaining constitutional guarantees that protect them—and all of us—from police abuse...
...From the Administration's perspective, there would be one sure remedy for such difficulties: military adventurism...
...Measures to strengthen the traditional family structure will receive an attentive hearing from the President...
...The driving forces will continue to be ideology, history, and the material needs of this nation's business elite...
...Washington's policy of "constructive engagement" has taken much international pressure off the apartheid regime at a time when it faces mounting internal opposition...
...No one in Washington—not even liberal Democrats—disputes the notion that the United States has a right to intervene in the Persian Gulf to keep this nation's oil flowing...
...Their cheers may turn to boos and hisses long before the final curtain is rung down on the Reagan Administration...
...Southern Command, in Congressional hearings last February...
...On other fronts, too, the White House is likely to promote racial polarization...
...Reagan, who is firmly on record in favor of a balanced-budget amendment despite the record deficits he has incurred, will probably try to head off the movement for a convention by pushing instead for Congressional action on an amendment...
...With an eye on Clark Air Force Base and the huge naval facility at Subic Bay, the United States is not about to sit still for a revolution in the Philippines...
...The Justice Department authorized 208 Federal wiretaps in 1983...
...labor movement will find its voice again and begin pressing demands for full employment and social welfare Most business executives and economists realize, of course, that a total ban on Federal deficit spending would prove unworkable, and they fear a "runaway" constitutional convention...
...A Shrunken Agenda for the Environment The Administration's emphasis on cost-cutting over human needs extends into the atmosphere...
...The Senate blocked Reagan's attempt to impose lifetime censorship on Government employees, but by the time it acted, more than 120,000 Federal workers had already signed secrecy oaths...
...What are our plans, military or otherwise, if there should be an attack launched by Nicaragua against Costa Rica tomorrow...
...Reagan will, for example, continue to push for a tuition tax credit, which would encourage white flight from financially strapped, largely black urban schools...
...Women, too, may suffer setbacks in the next four years, given the gap that separates men's and women's wages and the Administration's scorn for comparable worth, the drive to upgrade the pay levels for job classifications generally dominated by women...
...If any myth is fostered by official propaganda in the next four years, it is likely to be the one that holds civil liberties responsible for the crises we face...
...This has been an old-fashioned Keynesian recovery based on Government military expenditures...
...The opportunity exists as never before: Yasir Arafat's PLO faction has moved significantly in the direction of peace negotiations, and the Israeli government may also be in a more accommodating frame of mind since Menachem Begin's departure and the ill-fated Lebanese invasion...
...Congress is likely to prove receptive to future "tough-on-crime" legislation and some form of antiterrorism law...
...An effective response to Reaganism will require an economic program that eases the burden on workers and the middle class The ultranationalism of this Administration and of the culture at large, for example, reflects the pow-erlessness felt by many Americans: It is when people think they are helpless to control their own lives that they derive vicarious satisfaction from their country's attempts to control the world...
...Every attempt will surely be made to disguise higher taxes as "reforms" or "simplifications," but the net effect will be to boost Federal revenues...
...An Economy Locked Into Boom and Bust For some time now, the volatile U.S...
...military action in the next four years...
...What makes it so ominous is Trident IPs "hard target kill" capacity—the ability to launch a first strike by destroying Soviet missiles in their silos...
...In fact, the GNP increased at the boom rate of 10.1 per cent...
...Central America solidarity organizations, in particular, have been bedeviled by G-men poking into their affairs...
...Such an impasse killed the Civil Rights Act of 1984, which would have withheld Federal funds from institutions that discriminate (thereby reversing the Supreme Court's Grove City College decision...
...But those of us not driven by a passion to turn back the clock cannot be sanguine about the outlook for the next four years...
...military involvement in El Salvador, or cut U.S...
...The United States is the most vulnerable country from the standpoint of size and constitutional guarantees," asserts Assistant FBI Director Oliver Revell...
...And even if we are lucky enough to avoid world conflict, the next four years are likely to be fraught with difficulty and danger...
...meddling south of the border...
...Popular support for this notion reflects not merely a widespread failure to comprehend economic fundamentals, but also a degree of public alienation from an economy many citizens feel they can neither understand nor control...
...But Social Security figured prominently in the recent Presidential campaign, and Reagan's pledges not to disturb the benefits going to the elderly make it improbable that the President would seek—or could win—any notable reductions...
...The war plans against Nicaragua have diverted attention from the protracted civil war in El Salvador, which the Salvadoran army shows no sign of winning...
...Weinberger and General John Vessey Jr., chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have the President's complete confidence...
...It was a vote of confidence in "old-fashioned values" that have the look and smell and taste of apple pie-pride in flag, trust in God, faith that America is blessed above all nations and that its righteous people are bound for glory...
...If the Supreme Court's historic abortion decision, Roe v. Wade, were reversed, for example, public protest would be passionate and sufficiently powerful to prove extremely disruptive...
...All signs point toward more clout for the soldiers and spooks...
...If South African black resistance were to intensify, U.S...
...Even as South African police were killing hundreds of black demonstrators a few weeks ago, Jeane Kirkpatrick, the U.S...
...Robert Tucker, the analyst who coined the term "resurgent America," claims that "reasons of pride and historic tradition" justify U.S...
...Already, the Administration is suggesting that the specter of terrorism justifies new curbs on liberty...
...The Reagan Administration, however, shows little interest since suffering its own losses in Lebanon...
...pressure on Nicaragua, the Reagan Administration is itching for an all-out attack on the Sandinista government Casey, Vessey, and Weinberger—the voice these individuals have in articulating U.S...
...The drive for the balanced-budget amendment, like the enthusiasm for return to the gold standard and other nostrums, represents an attempt to impose "common sense" on a baffling economic order...
...There will be one restraint on the President: Twenty-two Republican Senators face reelection in 1986, and they will not want to confront the voters as callous budget-cutters...
...oil supply...
...Within the Reagan Administration, the Pentagon has ever more say, and the paramilitary arms of the Government—the intelligence agencies—enjoy virtual autonomy...
...policy toward the Philippines fails to thwart the revolutionary forces, the Administration will find itself dispatching troops not only to Central America but also across the Pacific...
...foreign policy augurs poorly for peace...
...The Reagan Administration has supported a $1.1 billion International Monetary Fund loan to South Africa...
...keeping out controversial films...
...allies in the region might, with some prompting from Washington, ask for military help from the United States under the 1947 Rio Pact...
...But those antipoverty programs that managed to survive the first four Reagan years—some saved by Congress for partisan reasons—may be on the chopping block again as the President tries to reduce the Federal deficit...
...A quick invasion, Grenada-style, might be counted on to rally the public around the flag...
...foreign policy can be expected to continue apace for the next four years...
...Reagan himself is not gunshy, as the citizens of Grenada, Nicaragua, and Lebanon can testify...
...and blacklisting those whom the Administration regards as unfriendly...
...From its first days, the Reagan Administration has laid the groundwork by intensifying Government surveillance and secrecy...
...banks will go into default...
...intervention in the second Reagan term: Central America After four years of U.S...
...Nonetheless, the Reagan Administration insists that military victory by the Salvadoran army remains possible...
...At the same time, Phillips and other would-be architects of the new corporate state contend it will be necessary to forge new links of cooperation between capital and labor...
...The trend toward secrecy and surveillance will only accelerate if Presidential adviser Edwin Meese becomes the nation's chief law-enforcement officer...
...Inevitably, such a program would encounter strong resistance from the Republican Right...
...But the personalities within the Administration will not have the decisive say on policy, though they may come to symbolize it...
...Senator J. James Exon asked General Paul F. Gorman, commander of the U.S...
...If their faith in his promises and perceptions turns out to be well founded—if, in fact, they ain't seen nuttin' yet—they'll be on their feet clapping and cheering in four years, and demanding more of the same...
...Pacific Command, told Congress last February...
...Representative Norman Mineta, a member of the last House committee, observed that CIA Director William Casey "wouldn't tell you that your coat was on fire unless you asked him...
...share must be attained at the expense of other nations—a "beggar-thy-neighbor" program 20 / JANUARY 1985 that is bound to intensify hardship in the Third World and antagonize industrialized allies...
...there is no reason to suspect he might look the other way...
...labor movement could find its voice again, and begin pressing demands for full employment and social welfare measures...
...The first was rehearsed in November, when U.S...
...Too many powerful interests, from bankers and builders to organized philanthropies, benefit from existing loopholes to permit any sweeping revision...
...There is very little reason to believe that a new arms control agreement of some sort will impose significant curbs on the nuclear arms race Since his first day in the Oval Office, Reagan has been encouraging what The New York Times has called "a quiet but steady expansion of military influence in decisions about national security...
...The Senate Intelligence Committee has announced it will propose the establishment of a special Federal court to approve warrantless physical searches—break-ins—by intelligence agencies...
...official statements during the Vietnam war, may prove unfounded...
...In their post-election euphoria, some conservatives were predicting that the Reagan Presidency will usher in a Golden Age of Reaction, a sort of Thousand-Year Bourbon Republic...
...Both branches have shown growing disdain for civil liberties...
...Some of the President's most alarming moves in the last four years reflect a relatively recent but troublesome trend in national politics—the influence of the religious Right...
...policy toward South Africa as an "unmitigated disaster," President Reagan was insisting that Tutu simply was not aware of all the good the United States was doing there...
...established a special U.S.-South Africa trade office...
...business in the ever more competitive international marketplace...
...It seems all but inevitable that the tax burden borne by most Americans will increase over the next four years, despite Reagan's repeated and unqualified promises to the contrary...
...In the time that has elapsed since Reagan's peace initiative, the prospects for a positive U.S...
...Perhaps...
...Can an effective opposition be mounted to Reagan's program in the political climate likely to prevail during the second term...
...Indeed, Phillips insists that decisions on such fundamental questions as investment allocation will remain entirely in the hands of business...
...The politically prudent course for the President on such volatile social issues—school prayer being another example—is to push for constitutional amendments...
...But a national sales tax—or a value-added tax—would be the most regressive of all, and it may ultimately be the device adopted...
...At the moment, the bellicose faction seems to have the upper hand...
...But this support only serves to polarize the Philippines even further, forcing the alienated middle class into an alliance with the leftist opposition...
...One possibility certainly not ignored by U.S...
...Commission on Civil Rights was the most visible affront—will carry into the second term...
...And the key to resurgence is the projected expenditure of a trillion dollars for new strategic weaponry...
...And the nation may witness some full-scale environmental disasters because of the Administration's inattention to such problems as the safety of nuclear power plants, contamination of water from toxic waste dumps, and the "greenhouse effect...
...At the moment, the Reagan Administration stands firmly behind Marcos, shoring him up with billions of dollars of economic and military aid...
...For the first time, significant sectors of the middle class openly joined demonstrations against Marcos, and they remain disenchanted...
...Robert A. Beck, chief executive officer of the Prudential Insurance Company, recently observed in The Wall Street Journal, "I like the idea of tax simplification, but I don't think people are ready for it...
...But the President seems to have such a firm commitment to new and astronomic levels of military expenditures that he may never be persuaded to impose significant cuts...
...This means, in effect, that corporate leaders would have a greater role than ever before in public policymaking...
...It is important to recognize that Reagan's success is in large part a reaction to severe societal problems—problems that cannot be ignored by anyone hoping to promote progressive political alternatives...
...CIA-funded contras, operating in Honduras or Costa Rica, could provoke an attack from the Sandinista government...
...It's against the Word of God, it's Antichrist...
...Detente, presumably the product of our weakness in the 1970s, has been scrapped in favor of a "resurgent America" policy...
...In the new war on terrorism, "we may never have the kind of evidence that can stand up in an American court of law," concedes Secretary of State Shultz...
...But we cannot allow ourselves to become the Hamlet of nations, worrying endlessly over whether and how to respond...
...The PLO leadership acknowledges—always in private and sometimes in public—that only Washington, could mount the pressure that would persuade Israel to accept an autonomous Palestinian political entity on the West Bank and in Gaza...
...intelligence agencies installed 549 so-called national security wiretaps in 1983—a 72 per cent increase over the number placed in 1980...
...About a year ago, forty-five professional forecasters polled by Eggert Economic Enterprises predicted, on average, that the gross national product would grow by 4.2 per cent in the first quarter of 1984...
...Despite highly publicized "quality-of-work-life" programs in some industries, worker output has not been raised above the usual level of cyclical rebound...
...William Niskanen, a member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, recently described the comparable worth idea as "truly crazy" and Clarence Pendleton, Reagan's appointee as chair of the Civil Rights Commission, said it was "probably the looniest idea since Looney Tunes came on the screen...
...As the economy deteriorates, the Administration may try to divert attention from domestic failure by promoting an overseas crisis...
...The President would be the first to affirm that the economy retains the basic characteristics of capitalism, but he would probably not want to admit that the boom-and-bust cycle remains the most prominent of those characteristics...
...Even before Reagan's reelection, the Administration was studying plans to delegate enforcement of Federal civil rights statutes to the states...
Vol. 49 • January 1985 • No. 1
