WASTING SPACE

...With substantial funding from the military budget, the Space Shuttle now serves as a vehicle for beam-weapon experimentation...

...Here, retired Lieutenant General Daniel O. Graham, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, advocates a policy of "ensured survival" to replace the current doctrine of "assured destruction," which leaves the United States vulnerable to wholesale destruction by Soviet nuclear warheads...

...After only one orbit, Cosmos 814 maneuvered within striking distance—one kilometer—of the previously launched Cosmos 803...

...With all its faults, the laser ABM system can reasonably be expected to handle most of those remaining 1,000 Soviet warheads...

...The energy beams would consist of light (driven by hydrogen fluoride lasers), particle beams (of charged or neutral subatomic particles), X-rays (driven by an atomic explosion and focused by lasers), microwaves, and EMP (electromagnetic pulse generated by a nuclear detonation...

...What makes the new space war strategy such an ominous development, though, is not the high cost, dubious effectiveness, or great vulnerability of the weaponry, but the potential escalation of the arms race to a new, destabilizing level...

...The hard-line scientists who have played a role in persuading the Reagan Administration to commit itself to space wars are no fools...

...After more than a dozen years of exploratory work, See Saw was abandoned in 1972 when researchers concluded that the costs of such weaponry would be prohibitive...

...In X-ray laser, a nuclear detonation creates huge numbers of soft X-rays that can be channeled through hundreds of laser tubes into directed X-ray beams...

...The single crucial fact is that the two major world powers now possess a sufficiency of nuclear warheads and delivery systems to destroy each other and a significant part of the rest of the world many times over...

...The mere perception by one side that the other has achieved a first-strike capability or a foolproof ABM system may suffice to provoke nuclear war...

...For every ruble the Soviets might spend on such cheap diversions, the United States would have to spend millions of dollars on devices that can differentiate between real warheads and duds...

...To ensure survival, Graham recommends a system of 400 satellites that would constantly circle the globe, armed with a lethal array of energy beams capable of shooting down Soviet missiles within five minutes of their launching...

...Former U.S...

...In the near future, the land-based MX missile and the submarine-launched Trident II will be accurate enough to drop two hydrogen bombs on each of the Soviet SS-18 and SS-19 missile silos...

...The laser ABM, with all its limitations, may have effective applications in conjunction with the launching of a preemptive first strike...

...first strike could be shot down by a laser ABM system...

...And a war in space would inevitably become a war that devastates the Earth...

...This being so, considerations of possible comparative advantage to one side or the other in numbers of warheads or in megatonnage become irrelevant, "Our one hope is that both the United States and the Soviet Union will recognize the futility of trying to outbuild the other in nuclear strength and also the cataclysmic danger inherent in the effort to do so...

...They cite a test conducted five years ago in San Juan Capis-trano, California, where a hydrogen fluoride laser was used to blast three antitank missiles traveling through the air at 450 miles per hour...

...The Soviet Union, understandably fearful that the United States is preparing a knock-out first strike, could decide to jump the gun and fire first...

...State Department consultant Colin S. Gray, one of the Nuclear Warfighters, has neatly summed up the doctrine: "The United States should plan to defeat the Soviet Union and to do so at a cost that would not prohibit U.S...

...It must also be assumed that at least 10 per cent of the Soviet nuclear submarine fleet will survive a first strike...

...His preoccupation is with the Soviet Union and the possibility that it may forge ahead in the arms race...

...Furthermore, the space-based beams can easily be neutralized by inexpensive countermeasures...

...Finally, it may be that the laws of physics simply rule out the successful development of space weaponry...

...The rocket, called the MHV (miniature homing vehicle), is now undergoing final flight tests...

...Soviet efforts to manipulate satellites in outer space can easily be tracked on radar, but the progress of space beam research on the ground is a matter of speculation and interpretation of aerial reconnaissance...

...The U.S...

...When used in space, however, the nuclear explosion kills the satellite itself, so a laser cannon of this sort can be used only once...

...In the 1970s, the Army started its own program, first called Sipapu (a Native American word for "sacred fire") and later renamed White Horse...

...For him, the space wars scenario seems to hold out the hope of perpetual, foolproof protection for the United States...

...Frontier (published last year by the right-wing Heritage Foundation...

...That is the "security" promised by Reagan's space wars program—not the security of peace, but the security of American victory in a nuclear war rendered all but inevitable...

...In Nuclear Warfighting jargon, this is called Strategic Defense...

...missiles from their flight paths...

...ASAT program calls for use of an F-15 fighter jet equipped with a miniature rocket that is capable of soaring 200 miles into outer space and homing in on Soviet satellites...

...military point with pride at the advances in laser technology that have supposedly placed satellite antiballistic missile systems within reach—at a research cost of about half a billion dollars...

...The Soviets have protested, to no avail, that this violates existing treaties...

...SAINT was abandoned in 1962 only because nuclear-tipped ASAT missiles based on Kwajalein Atoll and Johnston Island in the Pacific seemed to offer a more promising way of attacking Soviet space satellites...

...recovery...

...It took an entire building to house the 300-watt power supply for the San Juan Ca-pistrano tests...

...He is coauthor, with Jennifer Trainer, of "Nuclear Power: Both Sides," published last year by W.W.Norton...

...The CIA skeptics designated the Soviet facility as URDF-3, for "unidentified research and development facility number three," leaving Keegan virtually alone in insisting that the Soviets had a twenty-year jump on the United States...

...When the Soviets launched their first Sputnik in October 1957, the United States immediately embarked on a crash program called SAINT (for satellite interceptor...

...The Navy set up the mysterious Chair Heritage Project, which runs a test series called Dauphin at the Lawrence Livermore weapons laboratory in California...

...We are appalled at the present level of the nuclear armaments of the nations of the world and we are profoundly frightened for the future of humanity...

...strategic arms negotiator Paul Warnke has said, "There is no question in my mind that we could have a war in space within a decade unless we devise a treaty that will stop it...

...Keegan's assertions were investigated by the Central Intelligence Agency, which decided his evidence was marginal and inconclusive...

...The Soviet weapons can effectively be directed only against low-altitude satellites in orbit at 200 miles or less, while most important U.S...

...In addition, the Space Shuttle has increasingly taken on a role as a space wars weapon...

...It may be impossible to do all that...

...The objective, in other words, is not merely a first strike—though that is an essential component—but a comprehensive mix of first-strike targeting, antimissile weaponry, and civil defense measures that will guarantee, in the Administration's view, that the United States will "prevail" in a nuclear exchange...

...Keegan cited four large holes in the ground and two spherical structures that he described as energy storage tanks for particle beams...

...Reagan's speech sets the arms race on a wholly uncharted course...

...In the first successful test of its kind, Dauphin demonstrated that a small underground nuclear charge could be used to pump an X-ray laser at a wavelength of .0014 microns...

...Seventy scientists who contributed to the development of the first atomic bomb—among them Nobel laureates Hans Bethe, Owen Chamberlain, Richard feynman> Ed McMillan, and Emelio Segre—recently signed the following statement: "The signers of this statement are scientists who came to the Manhattan Project at Los Alamos in its earliest days and who aie now gathered to observe the fortieth anniversary of the opening of the laboratory...

...It is much easier to destroy a slow-moving, preprogrammed missile that is easily tracked by radar than to intercept from outer space thousands of Soviet missiles launched simultaneously and speeding at thousands of miles per hour over a vast area...

...In addition, Graham would have the Pentagon deploy killer satellites capable of blinding or destroying Soviet satellites in outer space, as well as ground-based "energy cannons" capable of knocking down enemy missiles before they reach their targets in the United States...

...In 1972, Major General George Keegan, then in charge of the $3 billion-a-year U.S...

...A genuine laser cannon could require from 100 billion to one trillion watts, and might entail placing several nuclear power plants in orbit—an impractical assignment at best...

...Furthermore, in view of the massive overkill potential already achieved, the mobility of many launching systems, and the absence, after many years of research, of any credible defense, we see no conceivable probability of preventing, by any military action that could be taken, such total or near-total destruction...

...The strategic rationale underlying the space wars proposal can be found in a glossy, 175-page document called The High Michio Kaku, professor of nuclear physics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, is director of the Institute for Peace and Safe Technology...

...Still, there are some uncertainties: To what extent will magnetic and gravitational anomalies over the North Pole divert the attacking U.S...

...In sum, there is a likelihood that about 1,000 of the 8,000 Russian warheads would still be available to retaliate against the United States...

...Until the missiles actually are sent on their course, no one will know...

...satellites with killer satellites or space mines of their own...

...The Nuclear Warfighters reason that an American first strike, no matter how successful, could never destroy all of the Soviet retaliatory force...

...It is no great feat, critics note, for ground-based lasers to shoot down airborne antitank missiles...

...One possible outcome, offered by Reagan, is attractive: This country will be perpetually protected from nuclear devastation by Soviet missiles...

...Three years ago, Dauphin dispelled the long-held assumption that it was impossible to generate X-ray lasers...

...Another possible outcome, feared by many scientists and strategic thinkers, is disastrous: The arms equilibrium between the two superpowers will be disturbed to the point where a nuclear first strike becomes inevitable...

...Its heavy involvement in military applications dates back to May 13, 1978, when President Carter signed Presidential Decision Memorandum Thirty-seven, calling for "activities in space in support of [the U.S.] right of self-defense, thereby strengthening national security, the deterrence of attack, and arms control agreements...

...Instead of using conventional jet fighters to launch ASAT weapons, the Soviets have been experimenting since 1968 with maneuverable satellites capable of firing conventional charges to destroy enemy vehicles in space...

...This breakthrough helped persuade the Pentagon and the Reagan Administration that an elaborate space wars program might be feasible...

...It was only with the advent of the Reagan Administration that Keegan's charges started receiving a respectful hearing, and the retired general recently put in a return appearance on the CBS Television Sixty Minutes program...

...The objective is to fashion a comprehensive mix of first-strike targeting, antimissile weaponry, and civil defense so that the United States will 'prevail' over the Soviets in a nuclear exchange On April 13, 1976, Cosmos 814 was borne aloft on an F-1M missile launched from the sprawling Tyuratam space port...

...the purpose of such programs is to preserve U.S...

...communications satellites are in synchronous orbits at 20,000 miles—beyond the reach of either Cosmos or MHV...

...In committing the United States to the development of massive space-based antiballistic defense systems, Reagan raises the stakes of the contest between American and Soviet weaponry to a level all but unimaginable...

...Wasting Space Countdown to a First Strike BY MICHIO KAKU The "space wars" speech delivered by Ronald Reagan on March 23 may represent the most enormous gamble of his Administration—and of our lives...

...That's where the space weapons would come into play: The 10 to 20 per cent of Soviet missiles that might manage to escape a U.S...

...Why, then, are they pushing the ABM system, and why is the Administration heeding their advice...

...A combination of counterforce offensive targeting, civil defense, and ballistic missile and air defense should hold U.S...

...Within a few minutes, the small number of satellites must locate enemy missiles with pinpoint accuracy, separate out the decoys and dummies, focus the destructive beam long enough to destroy a warhead, confirm the kill, and repeat the process hundreds or thousands of times...

...A massive civil defense program would also be developed, just in case any Soviet missiles managed to penetrate the antimissile arsenal...

...And there is always the possibility—some would say the likelihood or even the certainty— that the Soviets would destroy U.S...

...casualties to approximately 20 million, which should render U.S...

...Predictably, we know even less about the Soviet Union's space war efforts than about our own Government's, but there is no doubt that the Russians, too, have explored techniques of destroying enemy satellites...

...The few missiles that might elude both the first strike and the laser ABM provide the rationale for the Administration's new emphasis on civil defense and relocation plans...

...However, the military efficacy of space weapons, let alone their advisability as a new stage in the arms race, is a matter of much dispute...

...The feasibility of space wars weapons against targets of this sort has never been demonstrated...

...The Soviet military might entertain similar visions...

...They are aware of the doubts voiced by their colleagues and they understand the formidable obstacles that stand in the way of effective satellite weapons...

...For decades, both superpowers have secretly studied the black arts of antisatellite (ASAT) and ABM warfare, hoping to find security on the ground by placing the proper weaponry in space...

...ASAT systems will be ready for deployment in the 1990s, but beam weapons are at a less advanced stage and their current status is shrouded in secrecy...

...Because a satellite takes ninety minutes to complete an orbit around the Earth, only a fraction of the laser fleet would be in position to act in case of an enemy attack...

...industrial capacity for the "post-attack era...

...We urge upon the leaders of both countries that this recognition be made a cornerstone of national policy and that it lead to the beginning of a mutually agreed upon reduction of nuclear armaments and, for all nations, to the ultimate goal of the total elimination of such weapons.n Neither the skepticism of most scientists nor the profound misgivings felt by many strategic analysts seems to have had any impact on President Reagan...

...The answers are to be found in the arcane theories and peculiar ratiocinations of the Nuclear Warfighting strategists...

...Though the use of such missiles was explicitly banned by the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, they were kept in place until 1975, when the Pentagon came to the embarrassing realization that the electromagnetic pulse generated by nuclear detonations would wreak indiscriminate havoc among American as well as Soviet satellites...

...strategic threats more credible...

...Washington should identify war aims that in the last resort would contemplate the destruction of Soviet political authority and the emergence of a postwar world order compatible with Western values...

...We do know that the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) set up Project See Saw as long ago as 1958 to investigate particle beam ABM systems...

...Air Force intelligence apparatus, alleged that satellite photos of a Soviet base sixty kilometers south of Semipalatinsk proved beyond doubt that the Russians were out in front in development of particle beam weaponry...

...It was a stunning display of satellite virtuosity, and it prompted President Ford to approve funding for the Pentagon's MHV program...

...The arithimetic is simple: The Soviet Union has about 8,000 strategic warheads aimed at targets in the United States...

...What's more, Soviet killer satellites are unsophisticated machines, able to home in only on carefully preprogrammed dummy satellites locked into special orbits...

...The Reagan Administration's claims that the Russians are "ahead" in laser ABM technology rests almost exclusively on a single scrap of disputed evidence...

...Our One Hope...

...We write this because we worked on the creation of the first nuclear bomb and therefore, even though the consequences and the concern must be the same for all people equally, we feel a special sense of responsibility...

...They surely realize that no laser ABM system will ever be able to destroy all Soviet missiles immediately after launch, and that a failure rate of even 1 per cent would inflict catastrophic damage on targets in the United States...

...Today, the U.S...

...Still, Soviet ASAT efforts cannot be construed as a serious threat to the security of the United States...

...Decoys and chaff can confuse radar...

...In either event, Reagan's laser-beam proposal, which the Soviet Union immediately denounced as a violation of the 1972 Antiballistic Missile Treaty, must be understood as a profound departure from the balance-of-terror doctrine that has prevailed for the past three decades...

...Warheads coated with highly reflective paint can diminish the usefulness of laser beams...