PLOTTING THE RETURN OF SKYLAB

...Engineers at the NASA facilities in Houston and Huntsville, and at NASA headquarters, have teamed up to find ways to make reentry in the Southern Hemisphere more likely...

...A specific concentration is not anticipated...

...Yet these expenditures pale by comparison with the loss of the space station itself, which carries a billion-dollar price tag...

...The Skylab is now traveling at approximately 5 miles per second and at reentry time will make a revolution of the earth in approximately 88 minutes...

...When NASA finally publicly acknowledged the satellite's troubles, Congress was forced to fund the project anyway, because it would have been political suicide to let Skylab fall while any chance existed to save it...

...The heaviest fragment, a twenty-two foot shroud, could be as much as 5,000 pounds...

...will incur additional liability under the same 1972 U.N...

...NASA is in charge of the contingency planning and the release of any public information regarding the entire operation...

...Unfortunately, this heroic image presented by NASA, an image acAlbert L. Huebner is a member of the physics faculty of California State University at Northridge and has written for Science, Science Digest, Science for the People, and other publications...

...DCPA has representation in the group and has submitted comments on the most recent draft plan...

...The erroneous calculation of the orbit's lifetime was based on a model of sunspot activity accepted by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the agency responsible for predicting sunspot activity...

...Had this effort not been delayed for so long, it might have been possible to save the space station...

...Back in the late 1960s when Skylab was being designed, some NASA engineers argued for the inclusion of a rocket "boost" pack that could drive the big space station to a higher, secure orbit...

...Not much is expected to come out of the UNCSTD...

...That proposal has been ignored and today, as a decade ago, nine-tenths of scientific research is carried out in countries accounting for only one-third of the world's population, while military spending continues to escalate...

...Superior satellite technology has for many years been viewed as one among many scientific and technical advantages that are making industrial nations richer at the expense of developing countries...

...In response to the specific questions asked, the following information is available at this time: A. The northern extent of the groundtrack traces forms a general line in southern Canada along the 50th N. Parallel of a Mercator projection map...

...People have no right to expect miracles, but they have every right to expect responsible planning and implementation from the Government agencies whose projects their tax dollars support...

...Congress would not fund the booster unless it was likely that the shuttle could reach Skylab in time...

...It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the space agency sacrificed its responsibility to the public to avoid jeopardizing funds from Congress...

...As a result, Skylab would fall two years ahead of schedule...

...Under these circumstances estimates of reentry would be — first possibility May 9 — middle possibility June 29 — latest possibility September 30, 1979...

...With current satellite technology working against the underdeveloped Southern Hemisphere and the prospect for change uncertain, NASA now wants to steer Skylab toward a crash site there...

...Before that time a fully operational shuttle would boost it to a suitable orbit for long-term space experimentation...

...Personnel involved were those "magicians on the ground" who "admit they are pulling rabbits out of hats to keep the big bird aloft...

...And many of those demands will be in direct conflict with U.S...

...The goal of the group is to have a complete plan to the White House by mid-January and to have meetings periodically to update the plan as necessary...

...Look out below The following telegram has been received by civil state defense directors from the Washington headquarters of the Defense Civil Preparedness Agency (DCPA...

...At a recent meeting a current draft plan was submitted for review along with a report as to what could happen upon Skylab reentry...

...Skylab wasn't supposed to come down until 1982 at the earliest...

...This irresponsibility was compounded when the space agency apparently failed to budget money for long-term monitoring of Skylab...

...agreement that obligated the Russians to pay the costs of Cosmos 954 cleanup...

...Admission that there was trouble would have endangered funding for that program...

...Instead, according to William Schneider, past program director for the satellite, "When Skylab was designed, we told the contractors to be certain only that the parts would be operable for nine months, the length of the period for the manned missions...

...This theme is already shaping two international conferences scheduled later this year: the United Nations Conference on Science and Technology for Development (UNCSTD), to be held in Vienna in August, and the World Administrative Radio Conference (WARC), set for Geneva in September...

...sunspot prediction was an imprecise discipline in 1974...

...So far NASA seems to be addressing the technical side of the question, without much appreciation of the national and international implications...

...We'd much prefer to have it come into the Southern Hemisphere," according to Kenneth A. Young, a section chief at Johnson Space Center, "because there's more water, less land, and fewer people there than there is in the Northern Hemisphere...

...Although warned in 1976 that the orbit was decaying, it wasn't until after the Russian Cosmos 954 satellite drew worldwide attention in January 1978 that NASA acknowledged Skylab's troubles and initiated a serious effort to prevent its fall...

...It will be a coordinated effort between NASA, DOD and NORAD...

...But two years later, NOAA determined from a more abundant data base that there would be much greater sunspot activity than originally anticipated...

...NASA is paying the contractor, Martin Marietta Corp., another $2 million to $3 million in termination costs...

...Skylab was chiefly the project of NASA's Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama...

...Ironically, just as some developing countries are nearing creation of their own satellite technology, with their own needs in mind, concern is mounting in the industrialized nations over hazardous crowding in certain satellite corridors...

...It is estimated that at 6 hours prior to entry, and hourly thereafter, the cyclic groundtrack path will be determined which will establish the general pattern of travel in relationship to the continents...

...After many months of maneuvering the eighty-five-ton vehicle to slow its descent, NASA has -abandoned plans that called for an early space shuttle flight to place Skylab in a higher orbit or to control its reentry...

...But present tracking technology doesn't allow much advance warning of the time or location of impact...

...So the space agency is giving a lot of thought to maneuvers that might influence where fragments from Skylab will land...

...Once the planned mission was over in 1974, NASA could not sense what was happening to this massive hulk in space, much less do much to make any needed corrections...

...The Marshall center was also to be in charge of a $40 million booster system designed to be remotely controlled from the space shuttle, attached to Skylab, and then used to put it into the higher orbit needed for operation during the next decade...

...D. The fallout pattern of debris, "footprint" as NASA calls it, will be between three and four thousand miles long and from fifty to one hundred miles wide...

...Sunspots are important because they are related to solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and causes it to expand and increase the drag on satellites...

...It has been determined that the odds are 1 in 9 that any part of the fragments will fall on the continental U.S...

...A recent NASA report concludes that a "debris belt" will form unless future satellite launches are restricted...

...Plotting the return of Skylab A role for the Third World at last Albert L. Huebner Sometime this year — as early as May, as late as autumn — an object the size of a small house is going to fall out of the sky...

...Subject: Skylab reentry...

...National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has established an interagency working group to develop a plan of action...

...This safety measure was rejected...

...Now that Skylab's fall is inevitable, NASA is investigating ways to influence where it will crash...

...Several reports described NASA activities as a valiant response to a problem that had developed only recently...

...As plans are developed as to DCPA participation we will keep you informed...

...But WARC, at which frequencies in the electromagnetic spectrum will be reallocated, is another matter...

...But while efforts to keep it from falling were still going on, the public was treated to some arresting, if not entirely accurate, accounts of the unfolding drama...

...proposal would give more bands to international broadcasting, such as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe broadcasts, at precisely the time that developing countries are calling for a "New World Information Order" that includes de-Westernizing the international news media...

...This initial error was understandable...

...However, approximately 500 fragments, one half weighing less than ten pounds are expected to reach the earth's surface...

...Fearing that "the technical gaps (between the developed and developing countries) would widen to a degree in which the technological dependence of one part of the world upon the other will become all but complete," it proposed that developed nations should divert part of their financial resources from military spending to narrow these gaps...

...B. Daily reentry predictions will begin 20 days prior to expected, reentry...

...After one of these disappointments, Christopher Kraft, head of the Johnson Space Center in Houston, made his contribution to NASA's grand image: "People are used to NASA accomplishing miracles, but maybe this is one miracle we can't pull off...

...One U.S...

...NASA insists that the probability of injury or damage from the fall of Skylab is minuscule...

...At two hours there should be some determination as to pinpointing where in the world it could come down and at 30 minutes a more accurate estimate...

...Both the wasted funds and the threat of damage and injury could have been avoided...

...By the time all hope of preventing the fall was gone, more than $20 million had been spent on the booster system...

...Instead, NASA ignored the prediction of earlier reentry until the evidence was overwhelming and much valuable time had been lost...

...A similar conference resulted in a World Plan of Action that was adopted nearly a decade ago...

...This is forwarded for your information...

...At some point in 1976, they should have considered the new predictions of greater solar activity and started to make contingency plans to prevent Skylab's uncontrolled fall," an official of NOAA told a correspondent for Science, publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science...

...have teamed up to find ways to make reentry in the Southern Hemisphere more likely' year, NASA repeatedly tried to maneuver Skylab into a lower-drag position, only to have it destabilize...

...cepted uncritically and even augmented by most of the media, doesn't square with reality...

...The southern extent is a line generally along the 50th S. Parallel cutting across the southern tip of South America...

...C. The method by which reentry warning time will be disseminated has not been firmed up at this time...

...There is no radioactive material involved...

...positions...

...The Teleoperator Retriveal [sic] System (TRS), a remedial planned action, was to have either raised the Skylab orbit or to have caused it to reenter the earth's atmosphere in a controlled fashion guiding it to remote ocean area...

...The logic of this move may be less convincing to the predominantly Third World countries of the South than to those in the relatively developed North...

...NASA is responsible for release of public information, therefore, all inquiries should be referred to NASA...

...A suggested plan, but not adopted as yet, is to turn off the gyroscopes at the end of January...

...The Third World has the votes to back up its demands at this one-nation, one-vote conference...

...The developing world is likely to feel, with considerable justice, that the industrialized nations that reap the benefits of satellite technology ought to bear the burdens as well...

...DCPA has offered its facilities in this and other functions...

...Throughout much of last 'Engineers...

...It was frequently suggested that these dedicated efforts were being hindered, at least in part, by "budget cutbacks...

...One of the regions has received inquiries from a state with reference to advance planning for the reentry of the Skylab SL-4 launched November 10, 1973...

...As previously stated at 6 hours, 2 hours and 30 minutes prior to reentry critical information could be reported...

...According to NASA estimates, hundreds of pieces of debris from the Skylab space station, the largest weighing 5,000 pounds, are expected to reach the Earth's surface along a track 3,000 miles long and 100 miles wide...

...If this phase of the Skylab saga is handled as badly as several that preceded it, grave and long-lasting international consequences are certain to result...

...This concern is reasonable enough, but it is virtually certain that Third World countries will be asked to share restrictions in a way strikingly different from past sharing of satellite benefits...

...However, due to uncertainties which have developed in the Skylab systems, space shuttle schedules and TRS, as well as recent high sun spot activity which is accelerating the decay of Skylab, further planning for the TRS mission has been terminated...

...At the time that an earlier fall was predicted, engineers and scientists at Marshall, Texas, were studying reuse of Skylab for experiments in the 1980s...

...And should falling debris do damage to persons or property, the U.S...

...This move was forced by deterioration of components aboard the station and slippage of the shuttle's schedule...