Whither Portugal?
Koeppel, Barbara
'Revolution is a grueling process, littered with upheaval, contradictions, and chaotic change' Whither Portugal? BARBARA KOEPPEL Just twenty months ago, an exultant Portuguese people thronged the...
...The plan was his undoing, for the officers won out, forcing his resignation on July 10, and his replacement by one of their own, Colonel Vasco Goncalves...
...It was like the liberation of Paris after World War II," one woman told me...
...For if it is to begin fulfilling its promise of a better life, it needs ready cash—lots of it—to develop production to the point where Portugal can become self-sufficient —and to draw the skeptical, the anti-communist, the conservative, into the fold...
...Together they would forge and, when necessary, defend the revolution...
...Where the new government will actually take the revolution is still unknown, largely because the size and strength of the Left, and its ability to combat the rightward thrust, is unknown...
...First, as the euphoria of the early days faded, many in the population began to feel disillusioned or threatened by the events which swirled around them...
...Others who basically held conservative or liberal inclinations were seduced by the excitement and joined the chorus of well wishers...
...Sides are polarized...
...And though the parties on the Left are often fragmented over strategy, tactics, and timing (though less now than before), they agree on one point: They are convinced that any compromise with the moderates and conservatives means the inevitable destruction of the revolution...
...to develop and modernize agricultural production so that imports are no longer needed...
...Also, because the CP tried to steer a middle course between the far Left and the conservatives, some Communists turned to the more militant parties on the Left...
...Through a series of maneuvers which focused on and ended in the removal of pro-communist Premier Vasco Goncalves, the moderate-conservative officer alliance replaced their revolutionary counterparts in the MFA's ruling body, the High Council of the Revolution, in September...
...The mass base is composed of groups of workers in certain industrial plants and offices, some of the landless peasants in the south, and much of the military rank and file, with the latter now in the vanguard...
...And it is not yet clear whether the movement launched by the MFA in April 1974 can survive the tumultuous transition period and the attacks which inevitably come from the Right...
...The goals they stated—to slow the pace of change, restore order, lend a sense of direction to the revolution, perhaps even undo some of the earliest government programs and, particularly, rebuild the ailing economy—provoked even greater polarization...
...Also, it is accused by groups to its left of having been initially conciliatory, often siding with the Spinola government against workers...
...Appealing as this line may be, it could prove more romance than reality, since the massive sums Portugal now needs to keep the revolution afloat will not be forthcoming from countries struggling to keep their own economies going and their own people fed...
...Decrees and orders are issued and ignored...
...Because of a tactical error by the MFA leaders, many people began to feel cheated as the months passed...
...But then there was the aborted countercoup, followed by the elections in April for the Constituent Assembly...
...The Right is well financed, operates openly from a base in Spain, where it is believed to have an army of 5,000 poised on the border, and covertly in the north, infiltrates the parties and the military, and is obviously involved in the violence against the CP and other parties on the Left...
...Still, the revolution is far from over...
...Purges of fascists were carried out everywhere— in the schools, universities, local governments, villages, businesses, and the civil service...
...British interests, for example, were understandably nervous about their vast holdings in the colonies, and Washington worried about its bases in the Azores...
...What they failed to mention was that a revolutionary process takes years, even generations, before benefits can be felt...
...At these crossroads, no one can possibly say...
...for unemployment benefits (paid for the first time in the country's history...
...It is true that the Left has mounted resistance against the moderates now in leadership posts, seems to be more unified, scored some successes, and even forced the newest government to retreat on some issues...
...Whether the drive towards a new society with new structures pushed the officers leftwards, or whether they were already there, ready to spearhead a mass movement for a socialist state, is a moot point...
...SOS appeals were dispatched to the United States, the Common Market countries, and the Soviet Union soon after the revolution, but fell largely on deaf ears...
...Students, too, were demonstrating, proclaiming power to the workers and an end to capitalist exploitation and the colonial wars...
...Another problem—the abrupt social change—took its toll in increasing the general unease...
...Once this was accomplished, the EEC approved a $187 million loan...
...They knew all too well that their attempt to supplant the capitalist system (in some areas in the country, almost feudal) with a "people's" state was destined to be the latest chapter in history's chronicle of failed revolutions unless they managed to seize power decisively, move swiftly to crush resistance, and, most critically, secure a mass following...
...Some of the EEC countries are considering separate loans, but except for large sums channeled into SP coffers for its earlier, ultimately successful anti-CP campaign, none of this has materialized...
...Even where there was no visible resistance form the business-industrial community, the government scored few points for its programs because it had little to offer in the way of resources...
...In its defense, the CP insists discipline and control are needed to resist the Right, which will seize every opportunity to subvert the revolution...
...As a Portuguese economist observed on a recent visit to the United States, "The MFA is no longer...
...These were the peasant-workers, small shopkeepers, and small factory owners in the conservative, Catholic north, raised on a forty-eight-year diet of fierce anti-communism, who were frightened by the precipitous rise to power and heavy-handed tactics of the CP and by the rhetoric of the Left (particularly the more militant groups to the left of the CP...
...The Western European nations and the United States Barbara Koeppel, a free-lance "writer based in Baltimore, recently returned from a trip to Portugal...
...Whole new structures and programs must be developed, new problems solved, and all this must happen at the same time as the old system must be dismantled...
...for wage increases...
...We were all together—victorious over fascism...
...But now, out of power, the CP seems to be moving towards an alliance with these groups, both the parties and the revolutionaries within the military...
...And after much haggling, the new leaders named a government (the sixth since April 1974) headed by Vice Admiral Jose Pinheiro de Azevedo and composed of four members from the SP, two from the conservative Popular Democrat Party (PPD), and several military officers, all sharing, with the exception of the sole member of the CP, the same moderate line...
...Power seesaws back and forth, with gains for the Left one day, for the Right the next...
...And while this openness is appealing at some levels, its consequence—the unending sense of instability and uncertainty—is beginning to create a longing for a return to "order," a sentiment ominously close to that which prevailed in Chile just prior to the coup which toppled President Salvador Allende...
...The country is clearly at the most critical of crossroads...
...In consequence, many were thrown out of work, although where a company seemed salvageable, the government sent financial and technical help to keep production going and stem the mounting number of jobless...
...Billions are, in fact, needed to convert the country's backward industries...
...And despite SP leader Soares's claims to the contrary, Soviet aid has been extremely limited...
...For as the glorious high of the early days ebbed,a divisiveness, as dangerous as it was diffuse, grew...
...Power is out of their hands...
...Some saw the government's act as a show of strength...
...This small, poor country, which imports all of its oil, more than half of its food, and most of its raw materials for its industry, staggers under the soaring costs of essential goods...
...But in those early days following the coup, they were hidden beneath the banner of anti-fascist unity...
...Add to this the problems of mounting unemployment (worsened by the influx of about 350,000 Portuguese nationalists returning from the African colonies) and vastly reduced foreign reserves, diminished almost to the vanishing point because of the balance-of-trade deficit, the calamitous drop in tourism, and reduced remittances from Portuguese workers in France and West Germany...
...Thousands of workers and landless peasants who had been impoverished, powerless, and oppressed for decades eagerly rallied to the call...
...it was only a matter of time...
...It is a grueling process littered with upheaval, contradictions, and chaotic change...
...And as the election results set the political parties at each others' jugulars in clear-cut power grabs, caution began to replace revolutionary zeal among the officers...
...So when elections came, they voted against the revolution by voting against the CP, since its members were the most visible in the government...
...For those committed to transforming Portugal into an egalitarian, modern socialist society, the outlook may be ominous...
...Within the MFA, divisions fester where unity once was forged...
...The conflict raged over the summer...
...Since the CP was the most organized party and had, indeed, fought valiantly against the dictatorship for decades, it was seen as the vanguard and virtually swept into leadership posts (some say it grabbed them) immediately after the 1974 coup...
...As one lawyer explained, "They were disappointed because when the officers announced that a revolution had occurred, they promised a better life for everyone...
...It prefers, instead, the social democratic models of her Western European neighbors...
...To many Portuguese, this above all else imperils the revolution...
...The people watched and waited for the better new life, but after one year, little seemed changed...
...As the ideological gap widens, the military government's ability to govern becomes almost non-existent...
...At this writing, a total of eight weapons has been retrieved...
...By late September, the rift was so deep that it culminated in Spinola's ouster...
...For the very workers the government hoped to help, there was a Catch-22...
...When the provisional government named in May included members of the Portuguese Communist Party (CP) and the Socialist Party (SP), the Western bloc was distinctly jittery (though they need not have feared the SP, which has proved a loyal friend of the West...
...Nevertheless, it has been discredited in some quarters because little seemed to be accomplished when the Communists held power, and there were fears that they were moving towards a form of state capitalism rather than a "people's democracy...
...The divisions in the military essentially reflect the split within the general public...
...And the courses open to any government are limited and risky...
...But a central weakness of the Portuguese revolution was the failure of the officers, in their early campaign, to win mass support and build a wide network of people's councils...
...Leftists in the military formed the SUV, vowing to resist what they saw as a drive to dismantle the revolutionary process...
...For they insist that only a unified military, with its authority, can steer the country through the stormy days of transition...
...By September, the SP was riding the growing wave of anti-CP sentiment and dealt the final blow: It convinced the MFA to purge CP supporters from the Council and the government...
...To others, because the government had to resort to such tactics, it was a sign of weakness...
...The SP, a latecomer to the anti-fascist movement, sensed quite correctly that it would become a relic of the past if it had no issue...
...But the officers had just as clearly stated their own plans for the colonies—an immediate end to the wars, and the granting of independence...
...Another unknown, perhaps the most critical, is the extent to which the Left and Right are armed...
...Though some of Portugal's economic woes were related to worldwide inflation and recession, others were directly caused by the new policies and the business-industrial community's retaliation toward them...
...And while the Portuguese show great reluctance to use arms, some are saying, "If it comes to defending the revolution, we will be forced to...
...In every area—local government, unions, information systems, the ministries—old CP members, along with a new breed of joiners who clearly saw their careers enhanced if they could link up with the Communists, took top positions...
...But is also true that there has been a rebirth of a mobilized far Right...
...Not inappropriately, the domino theory was trotted out, dusted off, and re-styled to fit the European model...
...What is fact is that the MFA (which was only 20 per cent of the military) set a course for "the construction of a socialist society...
...But on the last point, securing the hearts and minds of the Portuguese people, the officers have had an up-hill battle and may have misjudged the real potential of the social base of support they so desperately needed...
...By late June, the CP was able to marshal thousands to a mass rally...
...And though negotiations among them are always thorny, such alliances as FUR (the Front for Revolutionary Unity, made up of six parties of the Left) are emerging and linking with the soldiers, sergeants, and progressive officers who have formed a secret organization within the military—SUV (Soldiers United Will Win...
...for emergency grants to small and middle-sized business and industry to keep them from failing and tossing more into the ranks of the unemployed...
...Mario Soares, the SP chief, carried the message to his friends in Western Europe, the foreign press railed of totalitarianism, and the Portuguese themselves became more edgy...
...Strikes, slow-downs, sit-ins, and demonstrations for higher wages, better Working conditions, and removal of management loyal to the old regime were staged by workers almost immediately...
...Unabashed, it announced its goals to the country and the world: an end to the wasteful colonial wars, and the construction of a democratic society at home to bring Western Europe's poor relative into the Twentieth Century...
...A tough Armed Forces Movement (MFA), a group of young officers radicalized by fighting thirteen years of losing battles against independence movements in Portugal's African colonies, had overthrown their senior commanders and toppled the widely despised Cae-tano regime...
...This may prove a disastrous miscalculation, since the moderates in Chile, who longed for a return to "order" and believed it could be delivered only by a "neutral" military, never conceived that events could produce the brutality and repression that prevail there today...
...Then there was the destructive power struggle between the CP and the SP, which turned many off the revolution in general...
...In fact, their ruling assembly, a 240-man body, has not convened since August...
...The earliest break came in July over the economic measures proposed by the conservative prime minister, Palma Carolos, (who had been appointed by Spinola), to counter inflation and stimulate investment...
...Democratic councils sprang up in factories, in neighborhoods, in the barracks, in offices, in small villages, to deal with grievances, seek solutions to problems, and, most important, serve as the vehicle for political education...
...Thousands of small arms disappeared from military installations and are generally believed to be in the hands of groups on the Left (since the Right, most Portuguese feel, is so well endowed that they can easily buy theirs...
...Charges against the CP, about its classic scramble to get and keep power, are often accurate...
...Again orders were dispatched from the Revolutionary Council, commanding they be returned under threat of jail sentences or fines...
...Thus, as many began to question or recoil from the new scene, their fears were indelibly registered on the MFA, leaders...
...In the absence of external aid, the only path to development and independence may be through a mass mobilization of the people and the creation of that revolutionary fervor which allows a nation to create its resources internally (as in China...
...According to all the people I interviewed, support here for the movement and for socialism is generally narrow—although it has been increasing in recent months...
...And the officers' doubts about the wisdom of the independent, revolutionary course were fanned by the deteriorating state of the economy, what they saw as an inescapable dependency on foreign aid from the West, and the compromises they would have to make if they were to get any...
...If the moderates prevail, especially in their effort to woo foreign aid from the Western nations, compromise will be demanded...
...Everything changes constantly...
...Then there were the groups which clearly stood to lose if the MFA succeeded—the tightly knit aristocracy and the upper middle-class professionals...
...The CP still has the largest following on the Left and, all agree, used its power to defend the revolution, particularly in the early stages...
...As passions mount on Left and Right, as the scene becomes more chaotic, the Portuguese penchant for peace, so evident that even unsympathetic foreign reporters were forced to take note of it, is sorely tried...
...Its allies would be the "people...
...for infrastructure development in the rural areas—the list goes on...
...The idea of socialism as the proper path towards independence and development for Portugal was never mentioned even though it was, in fact, the officers' long-term goal...
...With the momentum for the revolution building, strains between the Spinolistas and the MFA surfaced...
...The Common Market flatly refused to give aid until the government could promise a course bound for social democracy rather than socialism, hinging assistance on the removal of Premier Goncalves as well as his pro-communist supporters in the Revolutionary Council...
...And the rabidly anti-communist Church, seeing its own institution threatened by socialism, convinced its followers, particularly in the north, to suspect anything offered by the government as an offering from the devil...
...By contrast, the United States, through the public and private sector, poured some $200 million into Chile in 1975 alone...
...for those returning from Africa...
...What emerged over the first year was a clear course towards socialism—one which, after the aborted countercoup staged by Spinola in March 1975, climaxed in the nationalization of the banks and of some major industries...
...Some of the Portuguese are aware of the extreme danger posed by the Right, while others claim that the fascists are still disorganized and that no Portuguese-style Pinochet (the leader of Chile's anti-Allende coup) exists...
...Also, it has a ready source of recruits from the ranks of the thousands of Portuguese nationalists returning from the colonies, who nurse a deep hatred for the new government...
...Much has been written about the Portuguese workers', neighborhood, and peasants' councils, but they are actually few in number, sporadically placed, and limited in their power and ability to sustain and defend the revolution...
...what is proclaimed or predicted in the morning papers is often reversed in the afternoon editions...
...The militant Left, which has strong links with the revolutionaries in the barracks, sees still another course for Portuguese independence: It stresses "socialism now" and chooses to avoid alliances with either East or West, which could lead to dependence, and to turn instead to the Third World for support and markets...
...Also, they were being bombarded by anti-communist propaganda from the Church, their employers, and the SP...
...If policy were to be set by General Antonio Spinola, the man the MFA officers had reluctantly chosen as their spokesman—they realized they differed with him on crucial issues, but needed his support for the coup—they could have been reassured, since he had mapped out a scheme for the colonies which plotted some sort of federation with Portugal, with independence in the far-off future...
...What is easier to assess are the social and economic forces behind the almost complete transformation within the leadership, the new political tone at the top, and the steady chipping away of support for the MFA's programs...
...Inflation, battering the rest of the Western world, also hit Portugal with unrelenting fury, running at a rate of about 25 per cent in 1975...
...They were appalled by the government's plans to redistribute income through substantial wage increases (though Portuguese workers still receive barely half the wages of their Western European counterparts), by raising the minimum wage and setting maximum salaries, by land reform and rent control policies, and by the nationalizations (though foreign holdings were left untouched...
...Yet now, the military itself is in turmoil...
...So, too, did a mass of politicized students and intellectuals who had long been in secret anti-fascist movements...
...In an initial test of strength between leftist soldiers and the new government, in the northern city of Oporto, the soldiers, joined by civilian revolutionaries, forced the army chief, General Carlos Fabiao, to back away from orders which originally called for the purge and reassignment of militants from the army base...
...Clearly Portugal lacked the means...
...Employers, insisting that wage increases cut into profits and undermined their competitive edge in world markets, simply closed up shop, taking their capital and sometimes even the equipment with them...
...Privately, however, they were more than a little uneasy, unsure just where the new leaders would take the revolution on both the domestic and colonial fronts...
...What is less certain is whether the anti-fascist fervor among the people will blossom into a truly broad-based revolutionary fervor...
...publicly delivered encouragement...
...Thus, from the very start, the old-line officers were retired, and the secret police and leaders in the Caetano regime were purged, flown out of the country, or imprisoned...
...And when the CP scored poorly in the April elections yet refused to yield any of its power to the SP (which got more than double the CP vote), the SP declared all-out war...
...And the people, politicized from the start, squared off on either side...
...More recently, however, the government formed a small military "crack" unit loyal to it, which followed orders and successfully blew up the transmitter of a left-wing radio station that was broadcasting anti-government views...
...They danced, embraced, and tossed carnations to the triumphant soldiers who steered their tanks through the graceful Lisbon streets...
...The final attack was mounted when the workers in the SP newspaper Rep?blica ousted the staff, which they felt was not revolutionary enough...
...BARBARA KOEPPEL Just twenty months ago, an exultant Portuguese people thronged the streets, cheering the end of fifty years of dictatorship and the beginning of a revolution...
...Although the workers insisted their move was not directed by the CP, the SP insisted it was and used the ouster as still another weapon to fight what it called the CP's "takeover" or "social fascist" tendencies...
...But since money was in short supply, only a few projects were ever able to get under way...
...Initially, the MFA seemed unified over its announced goals of "collectivizing the means of production, ending all forms of exploitation, and achieving a classless society"—all to be attained through a "pluralistic path...
...It mounted an anti-CP campaign, along with one to divide the military, which it saw as all too sympathetic to the CP...
...But events moved swiftly...
...The people, besides being passionately political, exuberant, warm, and generous (they even granted pensions to some of the former leaders), are now deeply divided over the course their country should follow...
...The United States (after Goncalves's removal), coughed up an $80 million loan, almost half of which is earmarked to help the Angolan refugees...
...What little was given was marked for CP activities, not to prop up the faltering economy...
...The housing program is a good example: It was designed to give free land, complete with electricity and sanitation, along with free construction materials, to poor communities which would incorporate and collectively design and construct new housing...
...These problems are compounded by pressures for huge outlays from the new government...
...The radical officers had obviously studied the dynamic of past revolutions with care...
...Flushed with victory, the MFA proclaimed itself the liberator of the Portuguese people...
...The differences between Spinola and the MFA were bound to erupt into the open...
...And many industrialists and large landholders, particularly after Spinola's attempt to regain power failed, fled to the greener pastures of Brazil and Spain...
...Revolution, however, is not just a single event...
...Both by veiled and open suggestion, it encouraged attacks on CP headquarters, which, as self-fulfilling prophecies, bore out their warnings that the better new life the officers promised was, in fact, violent chaos...
...The leadership will obviously be forced to curtail worker demands so as to guarantee profits to potential investors...
...for resettlement relief...
...The moderate-centrist-conservative alliance (with some ties to the far Right) which originally announced its dedication to socialism, now describes itself as pragmatic, contending that rapid revolutionary change is neither possible nor right for Portugal...
...The explanation offered by the Portuguese is that the Soviets, intent on keeping detente with the United States alive, are less than eager to establish a Cuba in Europe...
...For a people weaned on strict authoritarian rule for five decades, the emergence of strikes, worker and peasant demands, total freedom of the press (nothing in the United States compares to the daily variety of opinion one finds in the Portuguese media devoured by the public), frequent street demonstrations (though orderly), occupation of vacant houses by the poor, some industry takeovers by workers, soldiers refusing to follow orders, and the breaking down of long-standing class distinctions—all this was nothing short of shocking to many Portuguese of all classes...
...For a blossoming and acceptance of the Communists and other parties on the Left (which were organizing in wholesale fashion) could easily set off an epidemic of revolutions with Spain to be infected next...
...for programs like land reform and housing construction...
...And a reading of history shows that such conciliation may be the death knell of the progressive movement...
...As soon as the program was announced, fifty cooperatives formed, waiting for the go-ahead signal, the land, and the materials...
...And both those to its left and right claim it is bureaucratic, arrogant, and authoritarian...
...Also, the parties on the Left seem to be more aware that united they stand, divided they fall...
Vol. 40 • January 1976 • No. 1
