Portugal: Still at the Crossroads

...recognition of an absolute right to strike, and full freedom of expression and assembly...

...In many ways, Castelo Branco typifies the rich variety that characterizes Portuguese political and social life today...

...Social leveling through wealth redistribution was the idea of a militant work force, who felt that any necessary austerity ought to be shared by all as a national burden...

...On a number of occasions, Otelo stressed his "complete freedom" from any of the parties that endorsed him...

...The Socialist Party has 120,000 enrolled members, but their general level of discipline cannot be equated with that of the Communists...

...They generally desire social justice and thoroughly oppose the old fascist regime and its allies, but they want to achieve change without violence or disruption...

...But it is precisely this sharp increase in the cost of labor, along with capital hoarding and international boycotts against Portuguese goods, that has slowed the inflow of foreign investments to a trickle...

...Factories were kept running by the workers, but productivity was dangerously low...

...Tod Ensign and Michael Uhlpublish a newsletter on developments in Portugal...

...The president also appoints the prime minister, who then forms a cabinet and proposes a political program to the 263 deputies of the new assembly...

...He estimated that "at least 15,000 party members spread throughout the country are serious militants, actively engaged in organizing and defending a bona fide socialist program...

...The region of Castelo Branco consists of a handful of counties, each with its own particular economic characteristics...

...co-ops that will enable small landholders to bypass intermediaries and directly import equipment, seed, and fertilizers as well as directly distribute their goods to consumers...

...Hundreds of Left-leaning officers and enlisted men were either cashiered or imprisoned, and the most "subversive" units were temporarily demobilized...

...The dominant economic activity continues to be small-scale family farming...

...Such Socialist militants as Jose Domingos have a somewhat revolutionary perspective...

...A decision was apparently made to wait until both elections had been held, before attempting to move forcefully against the institutions of worker control...

...Another 5 per cent are clientela [clients or syncophants] of one or another of the party's charismatic leaders...

...Out of this necessity, a deal was struck: The Socialists would "deliver" what it could of the working class, in exchange for Eanes's pledge to name their leader, Soares, as prime minister...

...It apparently believed that the collaboration of one or both of the large working-class parties would be needed for any program of austerity to succeed...

...The Communists, on the other hand, could not credibly engage in an open alliance with the far Right...

...The armed forces were trimmed in size and "professionalized," and democratic soldiers' organizations and assemblies were outlawed...

...Still, the vote totals for Otelo demonstrate a deep and continuing commitment on the part of many workers and their families to preserve and expand the gains of the past two years...

...Fortunately, conversion toward domestic needs was accomplished in some cases...

...As long as Portugal's African colonies could be bled dry, there were ample "domestic" reserves to allow industrial transition to proceed in an orderly and closely controlled fashion...

...Many workers had occupied their factories and large estates and, in some cases, they had assumed control over basic decisions of production as well as questions of wages and hours...

...Thousands of acres are under cultivation, yet the average plot is only fifteen acres...

...Which forces the outcome will favor still cannot be predicted...

...nationalization of all basic sectors of the economy...

...Mario Soares, the Socialist leader who is Eanes's choice as Portugal's new prime minister, formed a minority government, spurning offers for formal alliances from the parties of both Left and Right...

...In Porto, for example, more than 70,000 turned out for a campaign rally, and he drew capacity audiences at large factory meetings...

...A series of decrees which raised taxes, restricted energy consumption, and placed a lid on currency exchange was met with a wave of strikes and other job-related protests as soon as it was announced on July 1. By openly coalescing with the Right, the SP defiantly courted voter disaffection...

...Many small farmers also support the Socialists, having come to realize they lack sufficient social power to defend themselves against the interests of the large estate owners and the commercial middlemen who dominate the transportation and distribution of farm products...

...Without a drastic overhaul of the present system, only one formula for economic recovery is available to the Portuguese establishment: It must severely restrict wage increases and, at the same time, devalue the escudo...

...The establishment Popular Democrats won 24 per cent of the vote, while the far Right Social Democratic Center (CDS) made a strong vote showing of 16.5 per cent...

...In the south, the Socialists also suffered large defections, but there to candidates to the left of Azevedo, and especially to Otelo...

...massive public works projects to eliminate unemployment, and much more...

...In fact, industries producing for the domestic markets grew steadily...

...In the meantime, they must return to the poverty of earlier, less heady times...

...Before the "revolution of the red carnations," cheap labor was Portugal's most important asset on the international capital market...

...They wrote "Workers' Control in Portugal" in the September 1975 issue...

...Such a vast diffusion of economic decision making into the hands of hundreds of workers' commissions, tenants' councils, and similar grass-roots organizations had rendered the government incapable of administering a unified and comprehensive economic policy to solve Portugal's aggravated economic crisis...

...No doubt these grass-roots activists were largely responsible for the diversion of the Socialist electoral support away from General Eanes...

...Then, they are promised, they can begin to share in the vast wealth their labor has generated...

...These investors, apparently, are more than willing to "sacrifice" the higher living standards achieved by the Portuguese workers to satisfy their first priority —the drive for the highest possible rate of return on their investment...

...This fifth column in the Socialist Party, along with the more radical forces of the "popular power" movement coalesced around the candidacy of Otelo, should ensure that the revolutionary drama in Portugal will continue for some time to come...

...This body proposed separate elections for a national parliament and the presidency...

...Additional support for the SP comes from members of the liberal professions and from a vast array of shopkeepers...

...broadening of workers' commissions and creation of national links among them...

...In fact, the Left retained its national majority with 53 per cent of the total votes cast...

...However, the deals which were made in endorsing Eanes proved quite costly to the SP at the polls...

...Given this pattern of tiny farms, it is easy to understand why more than 70 per cent of all cultivated products are consumed by the farmers themselves...

...Although he is one of Castelo Branco's most visible Socialists, Domingos also enjoys great respect as a businessman...

...Forestry is important throughout the district...

...Frustrated Portuguese industrialists were forced to remain on the sidelines as the worldwide capitalist recession eased and foreign investors once again scoured the planet for favorable opportunities...

...Describing the social base of the major parties, particularly the difference between the CP and SP supporters, Domingos observed: "The CP is made up mostly of militants who know what they want...

...The new inflationary spiral that will predictably result from these steps will effectively erode the gains in buying power achieved by the lower-paid strata of the working class during two years of militant action...

...Today, however, it is almost totally dormant, a victim of the recession which has steadily deepened since the fascists were ousted...

...For the past two years, the economic sector most dependent on foreign investors, who were accustomed to exporting profits as well as products, foundered...

...he owns large land holdings, a General Motors dealership, and a Shell gas station, and employs approximately fifty workers in all...

...Asked how all this can be accomplished without open confrontation with the owning classes, Domingos smiles and says, "It can't and won't...

...Thus, a complex intrigue between Eanes, the Socialists, and the Communists (who were silent partners) was unraveled by the independent action of thousands of workers who realized that austerity could be enacted only at their expense...

...But the campaign provided little evidence to suggest that Carvalho has modified his commitment to a process whereby political power is seized at the top (as happened in April 1974) and then "transferred" downward to the people...

...By Portuguese standards, he is a small industrialist, but friend and foe agree that he is a tireless and effective worker on behalf of the Socialist Party...

...It was surprising to find a concentration of auto-repair facilities throughout the area, employing a skilled urban labor force of mechanics and metal workers...

...Salazar and his successor, Caetano, had severely restricted foreign investment, thus frustrating the multinational corporations' global appetite for cheap labor resources...

...Since April 1974, real wages for these lower-paid workers have increased by 25 per cent...

...Former Prime Minister Jose Azevedo gathered only 14.5 per cent after suffering a severe heart attack during the campaign...

...Overnight, two generations of Portuguese workers became consumers on a scale approaching that of their southern European neighbors—a hallmark achievement for millions of Portuguese and one which they are not likely to surrender without a fight...

...Newspapers in Portugal reported open resistance by much of the party rank-and-file to the Socialists' endorsement of Eanes...

...This portion of the party's membership is in constant opposition to the policies of the Soares leadership, although they remain staunchly anti-Communist...

...After falsely labeling the revolt as a "Leftist coup," Prime Minister Pinheiro de Azevedo ordered a sweeping restructuring of the armed forces...

...It is too early to conclude that the 'revolution' has run its course Portugal: Still at the Crossroads TOD ENSIGN and MICHAEL UHL As conventional wisdom has it, the "revolution" in Portugal has run its course, the people have tired of "anarchy," and the crisis of governmental authority has ended...

...In the last years of the fascist regime, the principal dispute within the nation's leadership was over the proper rate and scale at which foreign capital was to be allowed to enter Portugal...

...However, despite its successes on November 25, the Azevedo government discovered that the general movement of workers had retained much of its strength and combativeness...

...Many Western observers predict that the recently concluded parliamentary and presidential elections will usher in a new period of stability and "return to normalcy...

...The friction among national SP leaders is not reflected on the local level, Domingos says, but a deep gulf exists between these leaders and the party's militants...

...He ran on a sweeping but vague platform which encompassed completion of agrarian reform led by the farmworkers...

...There were some surprises in the voting for the other candidates: General Otelo Carvalho, former chief of security forces and until recently detained for allegedly "plotting" November 25, received 16.2 per cent—an unexpectedly large vote— while the Communists' candidate, Octavio Pato, polled only 7.5 per cent—down from the CP's 14.5 per cent in April...

...On June 27, the nation voted again, this time electing General Antonio Ramalho Eanes to the presidency...

...The far Left's domination of the mass media was also eliminated during the brief "state of siege...

...The government did succeed in postponing and even canceling some national wage contracts, but for the most part its "austerity campaign" was limited to propaganda appeals...

...In the Portuguese interior, not around the industrial belts, virtually all urban workers are Socialist voters, according to Domingos...

...Because of this highly inefficient farm system, Portugal is forced to import 20 per cent of its basic food requirements, mainly in grains, meat, cod, and cooking oil...

...The base of the SP, by contrast, is less ideological, less clear...

...Civil construction was the third-largest industry in Castelo Branco's southern zone at the time of the April coup...

...Poverty and cheap labor are the primary pre-conditions for attracting new investors...

...There is no doubt that the crushing of the paratroopers rebellion by the government last November 25 was a serious blow to the revolutionary Left...

...The workers are told to wait patiently until the economy is fully modernized...

...Many of his campaign posters simply displayed a photo of him in uniform, with the words: "April 25 for President...

...In the northern area, around the city of Corvilha, there is a concentration of modern industry, centering principally on textiles and ready-to-wear clothing...

...Each of the groups which coalesced around Otelo tended to make its own interpretation of his platform to confirm its own aspirations...

...Strong evidence of workers' resistance has already been demonstrated...

...nationalization of all key industries and idle urban land in tandem with government-sponsored building projects...

...The CP candidate, Pato, spared no effort, however, to assure all voters that the party bore "no hostility" to the candidacy of General Eanes...

...While profitable, such growth cannot begin to satisfy the appetites of Portuguese and foreign capitalists who favor a much more rapid rate of industrial development...

...Leaks from the Ministry of Finance indicate a 30 per cent devaluation is planned...

...The Council is the successor to the Armed Forces Movement (MFA) and is the self-appointed guarantor of the Portuguese "revolution...

...Having consolidated its control over the military and the mass media, the government was in a stronger position to challenge the loose network of workers' organizations which had grown up since April 1974...

...They publicly display the party's symbol but can't be considered activists...

...A former army officer and SP partisan, present during part of the interview with Domingos, gave this description of the SP membership: "The majority of the members are de emblema...

...A strong, "stable" government is needed to herd the unwilling Portuguese workers back to their impoverished pastures...

...As president, Eanes enjoys broad powers...

...A number of the far Left parties endorsed Otelo's campaign, but it reflected the personal style of the charismatic Otelo much more than any coherent political point of view...

...Since April 1974, when young military officers overthrew Europe's most durable dictatorship, powerful social forces within Portugal have vied for the opportunity to direct the nation's economic development in accordance with their respective visions...

...His candidacy was enthusiastically received throughout the industrialized areas in Portugal...

...In the period between November 25 and the June elections, the government was limited largely to proclamations and exhortations in its efforts to restrain the "rebellious" work force...

...On the second anniversary of the April 25 coup, 80 per cent of the electorate went to the polls and disproved the predictions of those who forecast a pronounced shift toward the parties of the Right...

...But we should make sure that when confrontation comes, it is under circumstances favorable to the majority of the people...

...Otelo entered the race barely six weeks before the voting...

...Many of the officers who engineered the coup of April 25, 1974, wanted to break the industrial monopoly of the ruling families and open Portugal to a more freewheeling and rapid industrial development...

...Portugal's two largest working-class parties, the Socialist and Communist, received 35 per cent and 14.5 per cent, respectively, and the far Left parties shared an additional 3.5 per cent...

...Jose Domingos, the Socialist Party's district leader, is a thirty-year veteran of the anti-fascist underground...

...They favor socialist solutions to Portugal's economic ills: total expropriation of the landed rich and continued agrarian reform...

...General Eanes, former Army chief of staff and operational head of the government's November 25 response, received an impressive 61.5 per cent of the popular vote...

...But, they did not intend to diminish the attractiveness of Portugal as a cheap-labor "paradise" for foreign investors...

...In the northern regions, the Socialists lost nearly a third of the vote they had won two months earlier in the parliamentary elections...

...he is supreme military commander and head of the Council of Revolution in addition to exercising the normal political powers of the presidency...

...Such home-grown capital as was accumulated drifted toward industries linked to domestic consumption, such as food, drink, tobacco, paper, and publishing...

...The doubletalk of the CP leadership backfired and they witnessed their former supporters deserting in droves to Otelo...

...During a visit just after the April 25 elections, one of us traveled to the city of Castelo Branco in central Portugal, near the Spanish border...

...the cultivation of pine trees provides the basis for a lumber industry and related resin and cellulose production...

...At stake for the fascists was the pace at which Portugal would emerge from a semi-feudal past, which had proven so profitable to a few family monopolies...

...This vote went to Admiral Azevedo, who had sharply criticized General Eanes for "infidelity" to the principles of the April 25 revolution...

...Last winter, the government turned to the Constituent Assembly, which had been elected in April 1975, to frame and approve a new constitution for Portugal...

...The fervent hope of Portugal's business and industrial interests is that the sizable vote for General Eanes will provide a sufficiently powerful mandate for the imposition of an effective program of austerity...

...The inability of the Communist Party to mobilize its sympathizers on behalf of the CP candidate, Octavio Pato, and the massive defection suffered by the Socialists pose a serious threat to the projected austerity measures advocated by Eanes and Soares...