THE MIGHTY MEKONG: FORCE FOR PEACE

...Some mechanism is required whereby the Southeast Asian countries can make such decisions and yet be able to take advantage of the financial and technical aid which the more fortunate Western nations are able to offer...

...The planning associated with the Mekong venture illustrates one way in which this can be accomplished...

...It had long been surmised that the Mekong River has a huge hydroelectric power potential, that it could provide millions of acre feet of water to increase the productivity of the lands in the Mekong Basin, that navigation might be extended as much as a thousand miles from the sea, and that the devastating floods which occur each year could be controlled by a series of major structures on the main stem of the river...

...North Vietnam, which can become a considerable beneficiary, has shown great enthusiasm for it, and the People's Republic of China has offered its assistance, too...

...If so their neighbors are not likely to be long impervious to such an appeal...

...It is composed of representatives of the four Mekong countries, and maintains liaison with ECAFE and the United Nations through its Executive Agent...

...Such an extension would open up new possibilities for economic development and foreign commerce, particularly in northern Laos and northeastern Thailand...

...An expert on water resources problems, he has served as an adviser to government agencies in Canada and the United States and to the United Nations...

...It will also help to extend navigation upstream, perhaps as far as Luang Prabang, in Laos, a thousand miles from the mouth of the river...

...In Laos, for example, power rates range above fifteen cents per kilowatt hour, more than seven times the average cost of electric power in the United States...

...Although floods are a constant problem, dikes and other flood control works are almost non-existent, unlike the extensive dike development in North Vietnam and the fabulous system that has contributed so much to make The Netherlands so rich...

...The Mekong venture is ambitious and costly...

...It has also been training river pilots in skills of navigation, and has sponsored training of personnel in the use of computer programming...

...Once the problems of storing and distributing the water, developing appropriate farming practices, and training farmers to use the water efficiently can be overcome, irrigation would make possible the cultivation of two rice crops where only one can be grown at present...

...The contribution to solving the impending food shortage can readily be appreciated...

...The Malthusian dilemma which now stalks ominously in the background will then become an awesome reality...

...But even when the killing ends, the basic problems of Vietnam and the rest of Southeast Asia will still remain to be solved...

...It went on to point out that much more intensive studies would be required to prove up the various projects that had been tentatively identified...

...The offer was accepted by the four Mekong countries and a team from the Bureau of Reclamation went to Bangkok in late 1955...

...For the past ten years, the four countries have been working together towards the formulation of a broad plan for economic and social development, undeterred by the absence of formal diplomatic relations among some of them, or by the activities of the various rival political factions in each of the countries...

...The Mekong project is supported not only by the riparians themselves but also their neighbors...

...Economically these areas could then become an attraction because of their unity, instead of a political temptation to conflict because of their division...

...DERRICK SEWELL There is finally a brightening of hope on the horizon that the war in Vietnam is ending, and that peace will gradually be restored to all of the tortured region we know as Indochina...

...Besides a vast increase in agricultural production, a major expansion in industrial output is required if living standards are to be improved in the Mekong countries...

...The problem of closing the gap between the rich nations and the poor nations presents mankind with perhaps its greatest single challenge...

...As Lord Avon (formerly Sir Anthony Eden) suggested in his book, Toward Peace in Indo-China, "The political significance of this project is that it will set going centripetal forces in the territories that need them most...

...Boonrod Binson, member of the Thailand National Energy Authority and of the Mekong Committee, suggests that "the Mekong Committee, which now involves four riparians, could be extended to a fifth, Burma, which also is in the [Mekong] Basin, and power benefits can be extended through an electrical grid to three more countries, Burma, North Vietnam, and Malaysia...

...Two features of the Committee's work are particularly worthy of note...

...Over the years, the river has built up natural levees that contain the water up to a certain point...

...And the indications are that unless a massive effort is mounted soon, poverty may well reach disastrous proportions...

...For some time it has been developing demonstration farms in each of the Mekong countries...

...Far from being an international handout, the Mekong venture is one in which the recipient nations are prepared to invest a major portion of their own meager resources...

...Each of them, except Thailand, has been dominated at some time—and some for centuries—by a major foreign power...

...They frequently request advice and assistance from elsewhere, but ultimately, the decisions as to future courses of action are made by the riparians themselves...

...Its development could also be a vehicle for reducing political tensions in this troubled part of the world...

...That is why one provision in the nine point ceasefire agreement—the paragraph that has so far commanded least attention—will in time become the most important...

...When the river overflows these, it can inundate as much as ten million acres, bringing massive losses of property and of life...

...The Committee is also eager to ensure that there will not be adverse side effects of dam development, as there seem to have been in Egypt following the construction of the High Aswan Dam...

...Even in the face of the war the work has gone on...

...He has written extensively on water problems and is co-author, with Gilbert F. White, of "The Lower Mekong...

...It has been estimated that diversion of water from the Mekong could provide sufficient water to irrigate a total of twenty-four million acres in its basin...

...Both reports pointed out, however, that there was a tremendous lack of basic data and called for the establishment of programs to remedy this deficiency...

...It is this combining of the resources and natural advantages of both South and North Vietnam with Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos which leads me to venture the cautious estimate that it would be hard to overstate the importance of the Mekong project for the future of this whole region...

...Flowing 2,625 miles from its source high in the snow-capped Himalayas of Tibet to its mouth on the South China Sea, the Mekong drains an area of some 307,000 square miles, an area as large as France and West Germany combined...

...The chairmanship of the Committee is similarly rotated...

...Until recently there has been a slight surplus of rice for export from the region, and this has provided foreign exchange for the purchase of other foodstuffs, raw materials, and manufactured goods from elsewhere...

...On the one hand they are so pitifully poor that capital formation is slow and increasingly inadequate, technical expertise is scarce, and military security difficult to sustain...

...Meanwhile, the United States, through its International Cooperation Administration (ICA), offered the services of a team of experts to study the river...

...The signing of the Geneva Accords in 1954 brought about renewed interest in the possibilities of developing the Mekong River, not only on the part of the Mekong countries themselves and ECAFE, but countries elsewhere, notably the United States...

...Unfortunately, the outbreak of hostilities in the region prevented further investigations for some time...

...Many such programs have been sponsored by the United Nations, particularly through the various economic commissions it has established...

...So great is the desire to obtain the benefits which the development of of the Mekong River seems to offer that the four countries have swept away their other differences to further that end...

...China, the Soviet Union, India, the United States, France, Great Britain, and Japan continue to vie for influence in this region...

...Although the four Mekong countries—Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and South Vietnam—were often not on diplomatic speaking terms, they continued to cooperate on the Mekong project...

...The majority of them are engaged in agriculture, and most of them live precariously close to the margin of subsistence...

...Many of the dams on the main stem will be massive and will rival some of the world's largest water developments...

...Per capita income in Thailand, the most developed of the four countries, is less than $100 per year...

...But it involves much more...

...Another cause of instability in the region is the growing desire of these Southeast Asian countries to determine their own destinies...

...Development of some of the projects on the main stem of the Mekong would result in substantially lower power costs in the region, and would thereby stimulate the much needed industrial expansion...

...In sharp contrast to the failures to achieve regional cooperation in other connections is the experience with planning the development of the Lower Mekong River...

...Poverty is clearly one of the major causes of political instability in Southeast Asia...

...Population in the region is increasing at the rate of about three per cent per year...

...It could become Southeast Asia's greatest asset...

...Reports of the Bureau of Reclamation team, published in 1956, and ECAFE, published in 1957, confirmed the broad conclusions of the 1952 ECAFE study...

...Consequently its investigations have included major studies of likely environmental and ecological impacts...

...Today there are approximately fifty-four million people in the four Mekong countries...

...Since the peak flow is so large that it cannot escape at once, it backs up water along the Tonle Sap into the Great Lake...

...Just as important is the provision of an opportunity for these countries to make the key decisions which shape their economic, social, and political destinies...

...Storage of flood flows in reservoirs behind dams constructed along the mainstream and at projects on some of the major tributaries will help to overcome the flood problem as well as facilitate the development of hydroelectric power and irrigation...

...Much of this increase could be achieved by expanding the agricultural processing and forest products industries, and possibly by developing electro-metal and electro-chemical industries...

...But the liaison established by the Mekong Committee among the Mekong countries, international agencies, and other countries has made it possible to obtain the necessary financial and technical assistance to undertake the planning and to get some of the projects underway...

...Today, however, it is but a sleeping giant waiting to be tamed...

...Broadly, the Mekong project will be composed of a series of multiple purpose dams on the main stem of the river and a number of dams on the major tributaries...

...The most effective instrument to combat poverty and improve human welfare in all of Southeast Asia lies at hand...

...I refer to that section of the agreement that obligates the United States to contribute to the healing of the wounds of war and to postwar reconstruction throughout Indochina...

...The Mekong is one of the world's largest and most magnificent rivers...

...Harnessed for the development of hydroelectric power, irrigation, navigation, fisheries, and flood control, the Mekong could be a major means of fostering economic growth and social change...

...Such cooperation would be required at the data-collection, planning, and development stages...

...The dam at Pa Mong, on the border of Laos and Thailand, for example, will create a reservoir with a capacity of seventy-eight million acre feet, more than two and one-half times the size of Lake Mead behind Hoover dam...

...At present, power is extremely expensive in the region...

...Consideration will have to be given to the possibilities of extending the benefits of the Mekong project beyond the four countries which have been so intimately involved in the planning up to now...

...A secretariat has been established to carry out the various functions of the Committee, including the undertaking and the supervising of studies relating to the river...

...Its development is the one thing the people of the region agree upon as a desirable goal, and the one thing on which they have demonstrated they are prepared to cooperate with each other...

...Each year at the onset of the monsoons, the Mekong begins to rise along its lower reaches...

...Intended primarily as an instrument of economic and social change, the implementation of the project might also trigger other beneficial changes...

...Construction of two others will soon be under way in Laos and Cambodia...

...However, it was not until the United Nations' Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (popularly known as ECAFE) took an active interest in the river in 1951 that any systematic studies were undertaken to determine its magnitude and its potentialities for development...

...The Mekong River is the one unifying element in this otherwise diverse and complicated region, one of the least economically developed areas in the world...

...The Committee has met regularly through the war, and field work has sometimes gone on in the midst of guerrilla battles...

...The major decisions have been made by the riparians themselves...

...They have enlisted the cooperation of the United Nations, more than twenty-five countries outside the region, and several private agencies in formulating plans for developing the river, and the work goes on in spite of the debilitating war in Vietnam...

...The Mekong countries decided to act immediately on the recommendations of the ECAFE report and set up a Committee for the Coordination of Investigations of the Lower Mekong, which has come to be known as the Mekong Committee...

...North Vietnam, endowed with the resources for industrial growth, would benefit significantly as a user of needed electric power generated by this unified river development, while South Vietnam, long the granary of Indochina, could surely increase production through irrigation and flood control, and thus contribute measurably to raising nutritional standards for all of Indochina...

...First, the basic decision-making is in the hands of the Mekong countries...

...The struggle for national identity, the tremendous cultural diversity in the region, and the lack of products for exchange have tended to stifle such cooperation...

...ECAFE decided to continue its studies of the river, and with the assistance of a team of internationally renowned experts on river development provided by the United Nations, began the preparation of a preliminary plan of development...

...Secondly, the four countries have shown great faith in the Mekong venture, contributing more than $90 million toward the costs of the Mekong Committee's studies and investigations and toward the cost of constructing projects recommended by the Committee...

...This presents the four countries with a dilemma...

...Perhaps the most important conclusion of the ECAFE report was that maximum advantage could be taken of the opportunities which the river had to offer only if there was close international cooperation among the nations which shared it...

...At this rate, there will be more than ninety million people in the Mekong countries by the end of this century...

...So eager is the Mekong Committee to ensure that ancillary measures are undertaken side by side with water development that its plans call for more than a billion dollars to be spent on agriculture, mining, manufacturing, transport, communications, and welfare programs in the next ten years...

...In fact, as the final terms of the ceasefire were being hammered out, and almost unknown to the American public—and indeed to most of the peoples of the world —the United States and a score of other nations had long been involved in a gigantic plan to harness the Mekong River...

...The ECAFE report on the Mekong River, published in May, 1952, noted that while only a cursory survey had been possible, it was apparent that the river offered highly attractive opportunities for development of hydroelectric power and irrigation and probably other purposes...

...Already five dams have been completed in Thailand, and three in Laos...

...The Mekong Committee is keenly aware of this, and has been instrumental already in getting such measures underway in several parts of the basin...

...Ultimately such a body might become a permanent instrument charged with the responsibility for developing the river...

...No precise estimates of the probable cost of the Mekong development are available, but it could exceed twelve billion dollars, depending on how much of the needed ancillary development is included...

...The success of the water development projects hinges on the institution of other measures as well, particularly agricultural training programs, education, transportation development, and industrial promotion...

...All counsels, therefore, seem to join in the chorus: press on with the Mekong plans and any others that can raise the standard of life in the area...

...In recent years, production of rice, the predominant crop, has increased at about two per cent per year or less...

...Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam trade with each other to only a limited extent...

...The report suggested that as a first step, an international clearing house for information and plans, and for the coordination of project operations, be established...

...In the case of Southeast Asia, regional economic cooperation is not easily achieved...

...On the other hand, they fear that acceptance of aid from other countries may postpone, perhaps forever, the day when they can choose their own paths of economic and social development and political alignments...

...To some extent, this will depend upon the provision of large quantities of cheap hydroelectric power...

...The peak flow, at the end of September or during October, can be more than twenty times the flow in the low water period...

...W. R. Derrick Sewell, professor of economics and geography at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, has been involved in studies relating to the Mekong River for more than a decade and recently was in Bangkok working with the secretariat of the Mekong Committee...

...The Committee meets three or four times a year, rotating the location from one Mekong country to another...

...It would be difficult to improve on that evaluation of the Mekong development as a force for peace and for the social and economic betterment of the peoples of that long suffering region...

...One mechanism that is frequently suggested is the organization of regional programs of economic cooperation...

...Increasingly the Mekong project is being recognized across the world as one means by which conflict over Southeast Asia might be overcome...

...The war in Vietnam has unquestionably impeded progress toward the Committee's goals, but the wonder is that, under the circumstances, there is any accomplishment at all...

...In addition, the increased production of food would make a surplus available for export and make it possible to import other commodities, thus speeding capital formation and improving the health and educational standards of the people of the Mekong...

...It would be difficult enough if this problem were merely one of raising per capita income in the less advanced countries...

...Food supplies, however, are not increasing at a comparable rate...

...It is the program for multiple development of the Mekong River for the advancement of all the countries of the region...

...The Tonle Sap project in Cambodia will alone provide sufficient water to irrigate more than seven million acres of land, an area as large as the irrigated areas of California...

...Without a dramatic increase in rice production the surplus will soon disappear...