CHILE'S BUMPY ROAD TO SOCIALISM

...No one visiting Chile can mistake the signs...

...The Frei experience is ironically giving some Allende supporters a feeling of hope at this time...

...What this all amounts to—and perhaps this is the key to what is taking place in Chile—is a polarization of Chilean political opinion and a growing, increasingly bitter division among the populace...

...Moreover, the generals are wary about any military intervention in politics anyway...

...The clamor of lower class women in protest over shortages is only one of several warnings...

...A people long accustomed to political infighting, the Chileans nevertheless are traditionally a gentle people with friendly rivalries...

...The results of the March election will probably determine just how far Allende will be able to go in the process of nudging Chile along the road toward socialism...

...They both seem to be calling for it...

...Allende isn't quite at this point yet...

...In 1970, in his fourth try for the presidency, Allende won with only thirty-six per cent of the vote, capturing a mere 36,000 votes more than his closest opponent, the conservative former President Jorge Alessandri...

...The composition of Chile's two-house legislature, now in the hands of the Christian Democrats and the Nationals, is at stake...

...Chile today is on the edge of the abyss and no one can be sure whether or not it will go over...

...Still, the Christian Democrats need the conservatives—and the result is that they have had to compromise from time to time on issues, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by leftwing-ers in the Christian Democratic camp nor by the propaganda machines of the government...

...Although Chile does have adequate land to support its population with native produce, it has long been a food importer...

...For now, however, Allende is in control of Chile's immediate future...

...The whole affair is having its effect on the people of Chile...

...Actually Frei and his fellow Christian Democrats had good reason to worry—particularly since a sizable element within the Socialist Party, including the far-leftist MIR (or miristas, as they are widely known), were clamoring not only for faster progress in accomplishing the socialization of Chile, but also for arbitrary action to put down all opponents, even to the point of closing Congress and taking over the country by fiat...

...Rather than nationalize the banks through legislation, as had been done with copper, Allende simply began purchasing shares in the privately-owned banks until his government had won control of the facilities...

...There is evidence that about a year after Allende came to office, leading Christian Democratic politicians, including Frei himself, began to doubt that they had much time left to preserve their own status as a true opposition and that they had better move quickly to shore up their defenses...

...But the Allende agricultural planners are hard pressed on this issue, for a rising tide of clamor from landless peasants in the countryside, spurred by activists of the Movement of the Revolutionary Left (MIR), keeps calling for a speed-up of the land reform process...

...Moreover, they know that a military takeover might well further polarize politics and life in Chile, leaving the army with the threat of a civil uprising on its hands, for Allende's own radical supporters would not take such military action sitting down...

...Whereas the previous Christian Democratic government sought to implement the land reform measures in a steady, but none-too-swift approach (which led to Chonchol's original defection from the party), the Unidad Popular government in its first year in office took more land from private hands and put it under government control than the Christian Democrats did in their six years in office...

...If Allende did not exactly have an overwhelming mandate to carry Chile along the road to socialism, he was, nevertheless, committed to his campaign promises to nationalize both foreign and Chilean-owned basic industries and mining, to establish state control over the banking system, and to hasten the agrarian reform process...

...Talk and action by radicals of the far left might well push Chile in the direction of armed strife...

...It has brought down two interior ministers—Jose Toha and Hernan Del Canto—and it has stymied Allende on a host of legislative programs...

...The opposition is obviously aware that it has a ready audience...

...The polls suggest that the Christian Democrats and their conservative allies, the Nationals, will probably be returned with an even greater margin than they now hold in both houses...

...own views of how Chile ought to order its economic and social life...

...Frei survived because of a personal popularity that, in some measure, transcended politics...

...Many of these landless peasants along with Indians long dispossessed of their lands have simply marched in on privately held land and taken over...

...Looking back over Allende's two years, it is easy to see that he and his Unidad Popular government already have done much to alter basically the Chilean economic and social structure, particularly during his first year in office...

...He seemed prepared for the long pull of political and legislative skirmishing that he knew would face him and his followers as they sought to carry out the platform of the Unidad Popular, the amalgam of the Socialist and Communist parties, dissident Christian Democrats, and a variety of smaller Marxist and non-Marxist elements...

...In the next few months, the current rough and tumble battle is bound to intensify as Chile moves toward the general elections in March of next year...

...That platform called for a basic restructuring of Chile's economic and social order along socialist lines, although it also clearly allowed for a retention of some traditional forms of private enterprise under government supervision...

...But for the Christian Democrats, the specter of the loss of Chile's traditional democratic posture was so real that they began gearing up their own defenses...

...The Christian Democrats' first efforts were directed at getting the conservative National Party and other minor political groups of the right to enter into a loose partnership with them...

...As he approaches the end of his second year in office, he is a troubled man...

...The Chilean economy is faltering with rampant inflation, shortages of consumer goods, lagging agricultural and industrial production, and dwindling foreign reserves...

...It has proven to be a little unwieldy because the conservatives of the National Party would like more influence in the arrangement, but the Christian Democrats, as the stronger element, dominate the partnership...

...At the moment, the prospects are not promising for Allende...

...There was controversy over other Allende measures— the amalgamation of the banking system into a state-directed arrangement, the gradual takeover of some ninety-one basic Chilean and foreign-owned companies —but during Allende's first year in office much of this proceeded without many stumbling blocks...

...I will fight with all my strength to maintain normalcy in the country, for if there were to be a civil war, even if we were to win— and we would have to win—it would mean the destruction of the Chilean economy and brotherly coex<-istence for several generations...

...He also had been elected with an absolute majority in 1964, something unheard of in recent Chilean politics...

...The visitor here hopes earnestly that somehow the Allende government and the enlightened portions of the opposition will manage to find an accommodation to stave off a costly civil conflict or to prevent four years of desultory infighting which would profit neither the forces seeking Chile's socialization nor those who want something less than state control of the economy...

...He has made a number of trips to Chile since Salvador Allende came to power...

...How much longer it will prevail is another question, particularly if the opposition wins the vote for legislators next March and Allende as a result appears increasingly stymied...

...Such a civil conflict could well erupt even without a military takeover, however, if you believe the views of some of the radicals around Allende or the reactionary hotheads in the opposition...

...It is also evidence of a rather chaotic distribution setup which came about following the government's takeover of food distribution facilities around the country...

...Ironically, the Communist Party opposed a takeover, as did Allende himself...

...It was easily a reflection of Allende's James Nelson Goodsell is Latin American correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor...

...Allende never expected that the road to socialism in Chile would be easy...

...But neither Allende nor the basic core of the opposition wants a clash...

...Moreover, the tension they create is constantly being fanned by the considerable propaganda machines of the opposition which miss few opportunities to report on shortages, making them appear more severe than they are...

...And, as if this were not enough, Allende's Unidad Popular coalition government is splintered with deep divisions between his own Socialist Party and the more conservative Communist Party...

...In part, the shortages of basic consumer goods spring from this rural turbulence...

...Frei became obsessed with the worry that some of Allende's supporters, particularly within Allende's own Socialist Party, wanted to do away with democratic pluralism which has long permitted a variety of political opinions to exist freely in Chile...

...That hope, however, may prove elusive...

...But Frei managed to stave off the traditional pattern of public rejection, if only partially...

...But even with the imports, food shortages continue...

...The Christian Democratic Party, nominally the largest political body in the nation and today the center of Allende's opposition, is, nevertheless, a reformist party, and on many issues Christian Democrats can easily go along with Allende, and indeed have supported a variety of his programs...

...In late August, he warned students of the far left: "I am horrified to hear people talking irresponsibly about a possible civil war...

...As much as he tried, Eduardo Frei, the Christian Democrat who was Allende's immediate predecessor, was never able to get Chile off the hook of food imports...

...Indeed, there is evidence Allende is being forced into the traditional doldrums which have chronically afflicted Chilean presidents of this century after they complete their first year in office...

...Frei did not fault Allende in this, but doubted whether Allende was strong enough to resist the trend...

...In the countryside, under the leadership of Jacques Chonchol, a onetime Christian Democrat, the Allende government has moved with considerable swiftness to implement the agrarian reform laws now on the books, laws that Chonchol helped push through Congress when he was a Christian Democrat...

...The consequences for Chile are ominous...

...After all, Chile is a country with a strong soak-the-rich attitude, based on an egalitarian view of things and also on a tradition of independent thought which springs, at least in part, from the country's relative isolation along the South Pacific coast...

...Now, some ninety-six per cent of all banking is in government hands with all this means for credit, control of accounts, and the like...

...The man Allende succeeded, the Christian Democratic President Frei, after two years in office was in much the same situation as Allende is today...

...But that feeling must be tempered with realism...

...Already, the radical elements within Allende's coalition government are pressuring for Allende to take stronger measures against his opponents, and off in the wings a reluctant military establishment is watching developments, hopeful that it will not be pressured to act against Allende, whom many of the generals genuinely like...

...Now, having won the presidency, he finds himself in the increasingly uncomfortable position of seeing his every effort frustrated by the opposition...

...Today's rivalries are far from friendly, however, and Salvador Allende is caught in the middle of this increasingly bitter struggle...

...These actions, called tomos in Spanish, have further slowed agricultural production and as a result the rural scene is one of deep trouble for Allende...

...If this pattern of opposition victories is borne out by the voting next March, Allende's effort to bring socialism to Chile may well be stopped in its tracks...

...But he is aware that his political strengths have so eroded in the past year that he faces the possibility of winding up as most other Chilean presidents have...

...His opponents, at first somewhat demoralized by the whole situation, accepted his election and in typical Chilean fashion accepted many of the changes of style which accompany every new administration...

...Moreover, that program had an appeal to many Chileans other than Socialists and Communists...

...In fact, that is about the only reason the army would move...

...Despite the euphoria of many of his followers who thought his election two years ago would quickly usher in the economic and social changes they desired and Allende promised, the new president was more realistic...

...This process could prove to be one of the Achilles' heels of the Allende government, since in spurring agrarian reform efforts there has been a significantly sharp drop in agricultural production, something that the previous Christian Democratic government wanted to prevent by its slower approach to agrarian reform...

...Their own good judgment, for now at least, is prevailing...

...With a long tradition of respect for civilian ballot boxes, so unlike much of the rest of Latin America, the Chilean military would feel uncomfortable in taking control, even for a brief interim period...

...But the army could move against Allende if he were forced to take measures that would be clearly unconstitutional...

...All that has happened in the year since then springs from this Christian Democratic decision...

...Moreover, it has repeatedly won elections for legislative seats, union posts, school councils, and the like, trouncing government candidates even on their home grounds...

...On more than one occasion during those first heady days in office, he said he would be satisfied if he could significantly nudge Chile along the road to socialism during his six-year presidency...

...On the political front, a stiffening non-Marxist opposition movement has already frustrated Allende on a number of his plans to move Chile toward socialism...

...Such a partnership does, in fact, exist today, although it is a partnership of necessity, not of true fellowship...

...The present situation is a bitter blow to Allende, the man who thirty-eight years ago founded the Chilean Socialist Party and through the years since has struggled to win acceptance for socialism through the ballot box and the traditional political paths of Chile...

...Allende, because of the rural turmoil, has even had to increase these imports, from about $150 million yearly to more than $300 million...

...Still, Chile's immediate future is in doubt...

...Looking back over the presidents who have served Chile since 1900, one finds that the majority became almost a prisoner of an opposition-dominated legislature and virtually impotent politically soon after the enthusiasm of the honeymoon period ended and the going got increasingly rough...

...The copper industry, Chile's biggest foreign exchange earner, accounting for seventy per cent of exports, was nationalized in July, 1971, a step that few Chileans would reject...

...He frequently counseled his followers to be patient...

...Not only are the upper and middle classes, which nominally support the Christian Democrats and their more conservative allies, talking about shortages, but also many lower class elements, traditionally more favorable to Allende and the Socialist and Communists parties, are expressing concern...

...And Chonchol promises to finish the process of taking over large private landholdings within months...

...In the months ahead, this opposition promises to frustrate Allende's plans even more...

...But the alliance of the opposition is working...