China's Strategic Shift

...There is little prob- ability that Mao's revolutionism will be resumed again in his lifetime...

...he has now charmed a visiting American ping pong team and a series of other vis- itors...

...Three—The Sino-American rela- tionship will remain basically hostile in character, until there is either the termination of the Indochina War and major reduction of the American mil- itary presence in the West Pacific, or abandonment by Peking of its strategic aim of ejecting the American presence from East Asia, or both...

...The shift in strategy has even had an initial effect on the hostile Sino- American relationship...

...Peking consistently purports to be the sole possessor, among the four major states engaged in the East Asian power quadrilateral, of the True Doctrine...

...In the course of that "Revolution," great violence had been done to the existing structure of Party philosophy and to the Communist rule...

...But in the end it was Chairman Mao who finally fixed the Party's ide- ology as Orthodoxy, in the Thought of Mao Tse-tung...

...By Party definition, he is infallible...

...In March of this year, the hundredth an- niversary of the Paris Commune was prominently celebrated by the Chi- nese official press, but there was no visible tendency on Peking's part to revive the Paris Commune experi- ments undertaken—briefly—at Shang- hai and Peking in the course of the GPCR...

...He ex- pressed his belief clearly in his discus- sion of "Problems of Strategy in Chi- na's Revolutionary War," an exposi- tion made in 1936 in anticipation of the Sino-Japanese War: "War," he said, "is the highest form of resolving contradictions, when they have developed to a certain stage, be- tween classes, nations, states, or polit- ical groups . . ." Only with Utopian resolution of the matter will the process end: "When human society ad- vances to the point where classes and states are eliminated, there will be no more wars . . . that will be the era of perpetual peace for mankind...

...Given his conception of the opera- tion of clashing forces in political life, Mao maintains a related theory of un- interrupted revolution ("permanent revolution," in the Trotskyite phrase...

...Further, the projected return of Oki- nawa to Japanese sovereignty in 1972, and the attendant probability that it will be proposed, in some American military circles, to build up the Amer- ican position on Formosa as a substi- tute link in the chain of military en- circlement of China, introduce yet another imponderable into the equa- tion...

...Fulmina- tions against "Japanese militarism" flow unabated, but Sino- Japanese trade continues to expand...

...Mao's expectation that the Third World would engage in revolu- tionary warfare in faithful adherence to the Chinese pattern was disappoint- ed...

...whether the new forms will be as viable as the old remains to be proved...

...The existing situation points up the urgent need for change...

...But even as the Great Leap betrayed the boundless hopes of the Chairman, so did the Great Proletar- ian Cultural Revolution...

...And Mao himself is imbued with a volun- tarist faith in the infinite capacity of man to dominate objective reality by the harnessing of subjective forces...

...And recent Chi- nese propaganda in particular has made clear that the new social order would have as its inspiration the Paris Commune of 1871...

...Second, Japan has established itself as a front- rank economic power and is accelerat- ing its program of re-armament...

...In the light of so many danger- charged developments, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has ev- idently decided upon a fresh strategic approach...

...Mao had achieved the overthrow and disgrace of his chief Party opponents, and won canoniza- tion for himself and his works, but the "victory" had been at great cost to Party, government, and nation...

...Finally, there is the challenge to China's program arising from Mos- cow's "revisionist" approach to the contest for world power: Moscow sub- verts the Chinese strategy of fostering world revolution by Soviet wooing of bourgeois governments...

...Peking therefore finds it desirable, after all the slogans are shouted, tp turn to pragmatic proce- dures in the arduous task of working to that end...

...The strat- egy adopted by Peking will probably have a major impact on the future of Asia—perhaps of the world...

...He wrote "Twentieth Century China," and his new book, "China and Russia: The 'Great Game,'" will be published this month...

...Nor was the victory claimed in 1969 manifest in other fields...

...Maoism, like anarchism, is anti-elitist and opposed to the institutionalization of political power, contending that the revolutionary's immediate task is de- struction...

...Trot- sky held that "it is absurd to say that one cannot leap over stages...

...How...

...The clash between West and East Pakistan not only introduces impon- derables into Pakistan's own future...

...Asia is truly a revolutionary continent, but the rev- olution is attended by dangerous forces: • In the widening Indochina War, China has become more deeply in- volved—on the side of the revolution- aries...

...Two—Given China's real fear of a powerful renascent Oriental neighbor defiant of Mao Tse-tung Thought, Chinese animadversions against "Jap- anese militarism" will probably con- tinue unabated...

...The Maoist personality cult with its autocratic controls suffices to keep Mao's Thought enshrined and official- ly inviolate, but its revolutionary es- sence has been damped down...

...The massive effort failed, but Mao has nev- er admitted to error in that regard...

...Instead of flocking to the Maoist banner, Asian, African, and Latin American peoples had been alienated from China by the GPCR excesses...

...The millenium has been delayed...

...For the present turmoil promises to offer China new political opportunities having nothing to do with Marxism-Lenin- ism, since China supports West Pakis- tan and India backs East Pakistan...

...Notably, however, its membership had not been elected in accordance with established procedure, but select- ed by "consultation...

...Premier Chou En-lai charmed those who attended the 1955 Bandung Conference...

...Mao's illumi- nism had again proved inadequate as a philosophy for the governance of China...

...The Vietnam papers published by The New York Times make it abun- dantly clear, if it were not obvious be- fore from the statements of assorted Secretaries of State and Defense, that the United States has been making war in Indochina as part of a plan to encircle China with a cordon of fire and steel, and was entirely prepared, at least on a "contingency" basis, for any military confrontation with China that might arise from the Indochina War, a war that still continues...

...CHINA'S STRATEGIC SHIFT by O. EDMUND CLUBB A major transformation is taking place in the East Asian power confrontation...

...Maoism, as now institutionalized, is not to be changed any more than the basic tenets of Confucianism were changed...

...It is as if his charm had affected a nation, and Washington has cau- tiously relaxed restrictions on trade with "Red" China...

...Under Mao's messianic direction, the Chinese People's Republic had trapped itself in a contradictory polit- ical position...

...Pe- king's shift in domestic and foreign strategy promises to make the coun- try notably stronger in the decades ahead...

...Chinese Marxism-Leninism did not spring full-fledged from the brow of Mao Tse-tung—or of any other one Chinese leader...

...With "politics in command," with "revolutionary spontaneity," with mo- bilization of the magic power of The Masses, the subjective—he thought— could overcome the objective...

...This concept is closely related to an- other, military belief, as incorporated in Mao's doctrine of "protracted war- fare...

...Foreign Service in China, Indochina, and Manchuria...

...In summary, as the Chinese Com- munist Party celebrates its fiftieth birthday, Peking, bound de jure to Mao Tse-tung's revolutionary policies, has de facto undertaken pragmatically to consolidate and strengthen the na- tional political and economic struc- ture, and in the foreign field, to win greater influence by the quite unrevo- lutionary tactics associated with the Bandung policy...

...Out of sight, but not out of mind...

...The cost factors of the GPCR were con- veniently shelved, out of sight...

...First, our Indochina War is reaching a critical stage: will peace really ensue, or will pursuit of American strategic objectives lead to a wider war, with new dangers...

...By reaching agreements with a number of countries, since late 1970, for the establishment of diplomatic re- lations, China has already substantial- ly enhanced its chances of becoming a full member of the organized world community, the United Nations...

...On the occasion of May Day, Peking's three leading of- ficial periodicals carried a joint edi- torial entitled Long Live the Great Unity of the People of the World...

...It is probably not without due regard for the disruption of the second and third five-year plans by great Maoist "movements" that the fourth five-year plan was launched (even if not spelled out in its particu- lars) in 1971...

...O. EDMUND CLUBB, who was the last U.S...

...Mao as universalist is found con- tending that "the proletariat must emancipate not only itself but also man- kind as a whole...

...It has apparently been realized that re- tardation of the Chinese economy, in an era of sharp international antago- nisms, presents a greater danger to China's future than does the ideolog- ical deviationism of dissidents from Maoism...

...Experience had demonstrated once more that that vast country and the world too are more complex and that the processes of change are obdu- rately slower than Mao has believed...

...That gathering took "unity" and "victory" as its watch- words, and purported to acclaim the complete success of the GPCR...

...He also holds, quite naturally, that true Communists should actively "support" (a favorite Maoist verb— but an indefinite one) revolutionary processes throughout the world...

...Peking's polemics against "revisionism" continue, in service of the doctrine of Mao's infallibility, but China's ties with revisionist Yugoslavia and Rumania are knitted closer, and both peaceful coexistence and econom- ic cooperation (in terms of a growing trade) have been built up with the USSR since Chinese and Soviet diplo- mats returned to the negotiating table in Peking in October, 1969...

...One finds in that doctrine elements strongly suggestive of the ethnocen- trism and universalism of Confucian- ism, the absolutism of ancient Legal- ism, and other Chinese thought pat- terns...

...There has been a return, in the field of foreign affairs, to so- briety and the Bandung policy of peaceful coexistence and economic co- operation which was followed by Pe- king in the mid-1950s...

...In practice, Peking no longer strives, as it did back in 1965, to form a rev- olutionary International of Third World countries for an early assault on the rich, industrialized countries of the world...

...Neither is to be viewed as categorically promised for the visible future...

...Japan's buildup of its military forces is a development which clearly was not anticipated by Peking even as late as 1965...

...The time is especially opportune, for July 1 was the fiftieth birthday of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP...

...The Chi- nese are not modest in their own claim of the importance of their governing concepts...

...imperial- ism," there is less reason than in other propaganda fields to doubt its words...

...it is the de- velopment of these contradictions that pushes society forward and gives the impetus for the supersession of the old society by the new...

...The situation is less uniform with respect to the matter of China's relations with the Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States, the three other states making up the Asian great-power quadrilateral, but here certain results can be tentatively forecast: One—Although inter-party polem- ics will continue (at least, for Chair- man Mao's lifetime), some further im- provement in the state-to-state rela- tions between China and the USSR is to be expected...

...Here, for Peking, state-to-state relations clearly take precedence over Mao's urge to further Communist revolutions...

...Just what is Maoism, and what meaning does it hold for the visible future...

...By proposing to foster world revolution, China found itself isolated—in a situation where it needed improved relations with other countries, practically all of which were governed by either capitalist, bour- geois, or "revisionist" Communist regimes...

...Peking obviously has less chance now than before of putting a Maoist imprint on Tokyo's policy...

...The Maoist personality cult fostered during the GPCR indeed was sustained, and bore some showy fruits, at the Party's 1969 (ninth) congress...

...In China, after the Communist advent to power, he has progressively launched a variety of "movements" designed to achieve fun- damental changes in the social struc- ture...

...The Sino-Amer- ican confrontation of the past two dec- ades remains basically in being...

...For it is bound by national interest as well as ideology to remain antagonistic toward a country that supports the Nationalist faction on Formosa and maintains a threatening array of mil- itary power in East and Southeast Asia for the "containment" of China...

...At the heart of Mao's thinking is his theory of con- tradictions, by which he holds that "changes in society are due chiefly to the development of the internal con- tradictions in society...

...It is a complex com- pound of both Chinese and foreign elements, and men of a variety of po- litical bents contributed to its evolu- tion...

...But the thaw is manifestly only superficial...

...Consul General in Peiping, served for twenty years with the U.S...

...Where Pe- king regularly curses "U.S...

...the flow of refugees into India threat- ens to aggravate relations between India and West Pakistan...

...In Peking's administration of for- eign affairs, lip service is still paid to Maoist revolutionism...

...It regularly castigates the United States as "imperialist," Japan as "militarist," and the USSR as "revisionist...

...aggressors and all their run- ning dogs...

...If the United States is found to be in grave difficulty in Asia, Amer- ican military strength is nevertheless far greater than China's own, and therein lies a potential threat to China for so long as the present confronta- tion continues...

...Third, the Soviet Union is energetical- ly expanding its economic and politi- cal ties with critical countries on the Asian periphery...

...And yet, that same document was found citing Mao Tse-tung as sanction for the idea that China should "unite with all forces that can be united, the enemy excepted," and should strive for peaceful coexistence with countries having different social systems, on the basis of the Five (Bandung) Principles —one of which provides for non-inter- ference in other countries' internal af- fairs...

...He believes firmly that humanity can arrive at the ideal state of political perfection only by the way of revolu- tionary action...

...Then there is Marxism-Len- inism, with the many possibilities which that revolutionary ideology holds for varying interpretations...

...There are other important compo- nents of Mao's basic philosophy...

...The occasion was to be viewed in the light of the dictum contained in the Party's new (1969) constitution: "Mao Tse-tung Thought is Marxism- Leninism of the era in which impe- rialism is heading for total collapse and socialism is advancing to world-wide victory...

...Rev- olutionary spontaneity" is not enough...

...Mao therefore believes in the desir- ability of maintaining constant insta- bility both at home and abroad, so that the flux of contradictions may main- tain movement—and thus progress...

...The country's foreign affairs generally were left in a shambles...

...Neither Chinese polemics nor Chi- nese political philosophy is a reliable guide to Peking's strategy, but the phi- losophy provides useful background...

...Mao also believes in the feasibility of making qualitative leaps over stages: His at- tempted Great Leap Forward of 1958 was a classic attempt to surmount his- torical stages of economic develop- ment by an act of the national will...

...In a classless soci- ety, the people would be both workers and their own governors...

...It was a rubber- stamp congress, created to condemn Mao Tse-tung's antagonists, and to celebrate "great leader Chairman Mao" and Maoism...

...and it is highly probable that elitist planning and management will be enlisted for its execution...

...In an important sense, the Soviet Russians have proved more "Asian" than the Chinese, more patient, more cunning in strategy and maneuver...

...Mao, like a number of other Chinese revolutionaries, was influ- enced by Russian anarchism even be- fore becoming aware of Marxism...

...In foreign relations, China had fared even worse...

...Fourth, China, re- cently emerged from its tumultuous Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution (GPCR), has embarked upon a new strategy in foreign affairs...

...The first small steps have been taken to re- lax the confrontation, and that is all...

...The seemingly monolithic Party had been shattered, government had been unhinged, and the Army, in effect, had assumed po- litical authority...

...The doctrine envisages long- term "struggle"—almost inevitably by involved campaigns waged with shift- ing tactics to meet changing circum- stances—until final victory is achieved...

...But, on the CCP's fiftieth birthday, the Chinese People's Republic stands revealed in a new and impressive guise, and circumstances demand that the rest of the world take due note of the change...

...China has begun to expand its relations with "bourgeois" govern- ments instead of working for their overthrow...

...The Soviet leaders, in effect, propose to wait upon the efforts of bourgeois leaders of Third World countries to become more radical under the dual impact of do- mestic distress and international ex- ploitation and to proceed with all due deliberation toward the next stage (in Marxist theory) of social develop- ment, the dictatorship of the proletar- iat...

...It is now being remembered that, early in the Communist rule, Mao himself proposed that China should become a major economic power by the year 2000...

...The fourth is not the least impor- tant of those developments...

...Quoting Mao Tse-tung to the effect that "revolution is the main trend in the world today," and asserting that "the Chinese people are marching for- ward shoulder to shoulder with the revolutionary people the world over in the struggle against imperialism, revisionism and the reactionaries," the editorial stressed a final exhortation: "People of the world, unite and defeat the U.S...

...But it is to be antici- pated that the actual course of the Sino-Japanese relationship will reflect, in part, developments in the Japanese- American alliance and, in part, the exigent Chinese economic needs, for the maintenance of an uneasy balance for the time being...

...The country's third five-year plan, nominally begun in 1966 as the GPCR was getting un- der way, was frustrated by the political upheaval, as the second plan (1958- 62) had been by the Great Leap...

...More than two years after the ninth congress the laborious reconstruction of Party and a new gov- ernmental apparatus is still not yet completed...