Looking Backward from 2000 A.D.

...The heterogeneity of the American population is considered by many specialists to have been responsible for its high survival rate relative to that of many other overdeveloped countries...

...The Department urges you to remind our citizens that all of the trends leading to disaster were clear twenty years before the end came, and that we and the rest of mankind did nothing substantive to avert it...

...4. Appeals for loosening of restrictions under the Immigration and Carrier Act should be ignored for at least one more year...

...6. Resources: Mineral Small population size, and continued availability of salvageable materials in Los Angeles and other cities which have not been reoccupied, have greatly eased the pressure on our reserves of non-renewable resources...

...8. The Department recommends that the President's Human Survival Medal be awarded posthumously to Dr...

...CONCLUSIONS This is the first report of the Department in which the prognosis for the United States is mildly positive...

...4. Resources...

...The level of racial tension is now lower than at any previous date in our history, and positive efforts should be made to eliminate such tension entirely...

...As you know, untold human suffering has been avoided because of the enforcement of the act...

...Estimates of the degree to which radiation is responsible for the present levels of embryonic, neonatal, infant, and childhood deaths are difficult to obtain because of confounding with nutritional effects and the disorganization of our medical apparatus...

...Those few atmospheric physicists who survived the Die-Off have not reached a consensus on the exact cause of the jet stream shifts of 1978-84...

...In spite of this, a cautionary note must be added...

...Similarly, it is still impossible to sort out the causative factors for the present high level of carcinomas of all types in all age groups, but a substantial portion is thought to result from radiation damage...

...the chances of a substantial hunger component in the next decade is now judged to be very small, unless another dramatic change in the climate occurs...

...by PAUL R. EHRLICH DEPARTMENT OF POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT FIFTH ANNUAL REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT JANUARY 1, 2000 SUMMARY 1. Population: Size The 1999 midyear population of the United States of North America was estimated to be 22.6 million, with a standard error of 3.2 million...

...We must not let the lessons of the '70s and '80s go unheeded...

...While a rapid spontaneous return is conceivable, it would clearly be foolish to plan on that basis...

...3. Population: Health It is clear that lowered population density is a primary factor in preventing a resurgence of Marburgvirus B. Another factor is the recovery of the average diet to 2400 calories per day, and the increase of the high quality protein ration to almost forty grams daily...

...Their courage and determination in the face of ill-founded bureaucratic opposition from the AEC eventually led to the landmark Federal Radiation Emissions Act of 1976, popularly known as the Gofman-Tamplin Act...

...President, if we had any luck it was good—for with bad luck the famines, disease, and competition for resources could have precipitated a thermonuclear war...

...We cannot permit a repetition of such a disaster...

...Needless to say, the planning of the Stable Economy Commission must go ahead with all deliberate speed...

...The leukemia rate is still 740 per cent higher than the 1960 base rate, and that of chon-drodystrophic dwarfism is now 890 per cent of base...

...Even such local effects have been almost non-existent since 1992...

...As you know, Mr...

...Much more basic research on turbulent flow will be necessary before any attempt to reestablish previous patterns by artificial means can be made, and any such program is clearly beyond our current capability...

...In view of the small probability of weather changes permitting the Wheatlands Reserve to be cultivated in the near future, the funds expended on this unit would better be reallocated to the South Coastal unit...

...2. The Congress should immediately ratify the population convention of the United Nations World System Treaty...

...Some slowdown in training programs of the National Ecology Institute could be accepted and the funds shifted to molecular biology...

...These scientists, while employed by the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, which was supported by Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) funds, challenged the AEC guidelines for permissible levels of radiation exposure...

...Remember that although about 125 million American deaths were attributed to Marburgvirus B during the Great Die-Off, it is clear that as many as sixty million of these would not have occurred if the population had not been weakened by environmental deterioration...

...The soil restoration program of the Department of Agriculture is now well out of the development stage, and trained extension workers are expected to be in contact with approximately twenty-five per cent of farmers working five acres or more during the next growing season...

...Arthur R. Tamplin...

...7. Environment As indicated above, air and water quality have now both exceeded the 1960 base level by a considerable amount...

...The genetic variability inventory is nearing completion...

...It is suggested that in your State of the System address you emphasize, in layman's terms, the critical role played by "minorities" in our survival...

...In the national press there has been some comment to the effect that the environmental and public health disasters of the 1970s and 1980s were the result of "bad luck" or "Acts of God...

...It is important to remember also that a rapid return now would cause serious disruption in the new agricultural programs which have been established, and might result in a return of famine...

...Preliminary results indicate that the reduction of population size has not resulted in serious loss...

...The Division of Optimum Population is expected to recommend next year a program target of a stable population of thirty-two million by 2075...

...Fears of oxygen depletion are still present in certain segments of the population, and it is essential that they be reassured...

...Food distribution is now considerably more equitable than in the base year 1960, and considering the broad support of the population redistribution program and the rapid recovery of the national railways it is confidently predicted that serious dietary inequities will not occur in the foreseeable future...

...We must emphasize that national and international planning for resource husbandry and substitution must be organized as soon as possible...

...to be negligible in lowering resistance...

...The reasons for the partial failure of the vaccine are as yet undetermined, but a larger cadre of trained scientists is clearly needed to help with this and related problems...

...It is important, however, that the public be continually reminded that the fundamental role of this Department is not to encourage population growth, but to regulate the size of the population for the benefit of all our citizens...

...The public should be prepared for the institution of anti-natalist policies whenever conditions require them...

...Rumors that Marburgvirus A (the strain which first infected 30 laboratory workers in 1967, killing seven, and which was only prevented from becoming epidemic by a stroke of luck) has been causing deaths in Central African populations are unconfirmed, but the Immigration and Carrier Act of 1996 will probably provide protection for the population of the United States, if the presence of that strain in the human population is confirmed...

...In the past eighteen years the turbidity of the atmosphere at all reporting points has shown almost continual decline except in areas affected locally by uncontrolled forest fires and dust from unattended farm land...

...The Department feels that further recognition of Gofman and Tamplin at this time will drive home to our new government agencies the need both for extreme care in dealing with environmental problems, and your direct concern for the rights of individuals within those agencies to be heard...

...President, it is imperative that this generation and those to follow be kept mindful of mankind's recent history...

...Efforts are, of course, being heavily concentrated on the problem of repair of radiation damage in DNA (the genetic material...

...Finally, the restoration of relatively pure water supplies in many areas has further improved the epidemiological situation, although nitrate levels remain unacceptable in some areas where ground water was badly polluted...

...Radiation still seems to be a factor in the continued susceptibility of some of the population to Marburg-virus B and in continued low resistance to some other diseases...

...6. The remaining restrictions on the use of internal combustion engines in agriculture may now be safely lifted, with of course the provision that pre-disaster leaded fuel stocks remain under bond...

...The projected non-renewable resource crisis is now about 100 years into the future, although, if international trade is not firmly reestablished in the next decade, shortages of certain materials such as industrial diamonds may be serious...

...A specialist in population biology, he is the author of the best-selling paperback, The Population Bomb...

...It is only because most of the physical apparatus and records of our culture survived intact that recovery to the present point has been possible...

...Monitoring of all agricultural inputs by the Department of Population and Environment has completely eliminated the abuses of the agri-business swindles of the 1970s...

...The policy of special reproducer rations appears to have made significant inroads into the frequency of stillbirth, and child-health squads seem to be effectively reducing post-weaning child mortality...

...Ecology is now recruiting more talented students than can be usefully employed...

...It is now estimated that Deuterium-He fusion will be operational, producing pollution-free power by 2050, which will allow about fifty years to complete the transition to all-electric power...

...MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS 1. The continuation of present pronatalist policies will be necessary for the foreseeable future...

...The cost of inaction, apathy, and unwarranted optimism has been the payment of nearly four billion human lives over a fifteen year period—and we are still paying...

...2. Population: Quality The consequences of the release of radioactivity in the 1981 reactor disaster at the Seaborg plant, combined with the overall increase in environmental radioactivity permitted before the Gofman-Tamplin Act of 1976 restricted emissions, are still causing serious repercussions in our population...

...If present trends continue, the population will cease to decline early in 2001, and a slow rise in population size may be expected to commence thereafter...

...It is encouraging that surviving molecular biologists and human geneticists are now relocated, and that research and training are proceeding as well as can be expected...

...Whether or not weather patterns will eventually return to those of the early part of the Twentieth Century cannot be determined at this time...

...Movement of chlorinated hydrocarbon residues into oceanic sinks is now estimated to have reached eighty-three per cent of completion...

...As a single example, the vulnerability of the world population to epidemic disease, due to large population size (overcrowding), hunger, and environmental deterioration was repeatedly pointed out by scientists...

...7. As the climatic changes of the last quarter century appear to be more or less permanent, it is recommended that a new climatic base be established as of this date...

...5. Resources: Energy The Energy-Demand Control Act of 1998 has established the basis for rational utilization of the energy resources of the United States...

...Famine has been estimated to have been directly or indirectly responsible for sixty-five million American deaths in the decade 1980-1989...

...Acceptance of both humus building and integrated pest control techniques is extremely high in farmers who survived the disaster years of the mid-'80s and, of course, it will be even higher among the graduates of the new Federal Agricultural University...

...The Department concurs, however, with estimates of Eastbloc monitoring stations that the restoration of oceanic productivity is problematical...

...Approximately thirty-four per cent of the population now resides in SRU (Standard Reorganized Urban) Areas, and the redistribution program has returned to the inactive mode...

...5. No changes in the activities of the Department of Agriculture are recommended except in the Wheatlands Holding Unit...

...In view of the great reduction in population size, fossil fuel supplies will be more than adequate (in combination with hydroelectric power) to sustain our economy over the next century...

...However, the level of chlorinated hydrocarbons stored in human body tissues has dropped until this factor is now though...

...Food For the first time since these reports were initiated the Department can report progress on a broad front at restoring the productivity of American farms...

...With the crude birth rate now standing at 30.7 and the death rate at 31.6, we are now clearly within striking distance of stabilizing our population...

...Large terrestrial areas have reverted to green plants since the Die-Off, and even if oceanic ecosystems cannot be reestablished for several centuries no significant oxygen shortage is anticipated...

...We now can say with certainty that a major thermonuclear war in the 1970s or 1980s would have ended civilization permanently...

...Respectfully submitted, (Signed) L. Page Kennedy Secretary Paul R. Ehrligh is professor of biology and director of graduate study for the department of biological sciences at Stanford University...

...Therefore the estimate of ten million deaths due to environmental problems other than famine and disease is undoubtedly too low...

...John W. Gofman and Dr...

...A new book written with his wife Anne H. Ehrlich—Population, Resources, Environment: Issues in Human Ecology—has just been published by W. H. Freeman...

...The need to rebuild this area of science is made doubly urgent by the possible presence in the human population of Marburgvirus A and by the persistence of foci of Marburgvirus B in spite of the universal distribution of the Hsui vaccine...

...With care it should be possible to return the American diet to the 1960 nutritional base level by 2010, as programs developing satisfactory substitutes for dairy products and sea foods are showing remarkable progress...

...3. Increased support of research in molecular biology, even in the face of extreme fiscal difficulties, is necessary in view of the severe genetic and metabolic difficulties faced by our population...

...No substantial action was taken to correct the situation by a nation addicted to economic growth and ignorant of the limits of technology...

...In addition, of course, the continual improvement of the quality of the atmosphere since the Great Die-Off has resulted in a population much less weakened by circulatory and respiratory diseases, and will thus lessen mortality due to interactions between malnutrition and cardiovascular and respiratory disorders...