THE BIG RISKS OF LITTLE WARS

...Today it is further reasoned in some official quarters that the economic plight of China is so serious that nothing short of actual invasion of mainland China would involve Peking in war...

...decision to attack North Vietnam...

...If unchallenged reports in our press are true, U.S...

...American troops have been moved into Thailand...

...But "Logic demands it...

...The most explicit description of this strategy was written by Henry Gremmill in the Wall Street Journal under the headline, Vietnam Strategy: U.S...

...Naval units, with planes having "nuclear capability," patrol the waters...

...It says that to put into power in South Vietnam a regime which does not have "solid support" from the people, the United States is waging war against native rebels and is prepared to carry out guerrilla warfare against North Vietnam...

...This "more vigorous war" would begin with an ultimatum to Ho Chi Minh, president of North Vietnam, telling him to stop the guerrillas who are fighting against U.S.-supported Diem, or be attacked...

...would not support China if the Chinese should intervene...

...their homes, gardens, and food supplies were burned—methods designed to cut off the guerrillas from the villages, and so stop the fighting...

...U. S. military intervention in Vietnam, adjacent to China, is so liable to seem a threat to Chinese security that intervention by China seems to some observers to be as inevitable as was Chinese intervention in Korea when the U.N...

...If, after this ultimatum, the fighting in South Vietnam does not stop, the Journal continued, "U.S...

...For more than a year, U. S. strategists have been making it clear that assumed U.S...

...And, he emphasized, "let no one have any doubts on this score...

...political leaders, has been frequently reported...

...Ideological ties between the actual Communists of North and South can be assumed...

...Frequent conferences of top-level military and political planners are held in the Far East and Southeast Asian regions...

...Since so many people either actively aid the rebels, or at least refuse to aid Diem's government, the only way "victory" can be won is by turning the towns and villages into a series of guarded concentration camps...

...involvement has been well-publicized...

...Most interesting of all, 'escalation' is viewed by some leading strategists as an option available to American forces—not as an initiative left exclusively to the Communists...

...On the other hand, Ho Chi Minh, president of North Vietnam, is respected in both North and South Vietnam as a national hero...

...This situation has little, if anything, to do with Communist ideology...

...but from the whole "socialist bloc...

...As the report goes on to explain, these U.S...

...Unless the region of Indo-China can be considered as a unit, stability is unlikely to be achieved...

...officials—and the press—as just another Communist lie...

...Few details were given of this particular operation, but numerous other accounts in our press have described in grim detail the reality of our programs for these Vietnamese villagers who live in what we call "free" Vietnam...

...It is a fact, however, that few such supplies have actually turned up in the hands of the guerrillas...

...The Wall Street Journal report concludes that ". . . in Pentagon files are war plans designed to fit all potential phases of this conflict, small or large...

...If the United States should bomb North Vietnam, the threat to China, as viewed by the Chinese, would be as serious as a Soviet attack on Canada from our viewpoint...

...The first article, by James Alexander, appeared in the September issue...

...No invasion by North Vietnam troops has been charged...

...interests are deeply involved in Vietnam...

...A typical statement of this often-repeated fact was made by Hans J. Morgenthau, director of the Center for the Study of American Foreign and Military Policy at the University of Chicago, who said in an article in Commentary, ". . . if we had not intervened consistently since 1954 in the affairs of South Vietnam, Mr...

...The involvement in North Vietnam is taken for granted by our military strategists...

...military to launch a massive attack against North Vietnam...

...They must be back inside at curfew or become "fair game" for the soldiers who guard them...

...planners may be of intending such an effort, Peking's oft-expressed fear of attack is not difficult to understand...

...Since, however, the projected attack has already crossed the boundary into North Vietnam, this clearly forecasts the "pursuit of the enemy" into China...

...A description of one of these operations against the people was published recently in the New York Times...

...On the contrary, "American policy-shapers' calculations actually do not forecast peace at this point of history...

...Then the 'slow bleeding' formula would be working against us—and doctrine now circulating would call for turning to more vigorous war...

...military strategists do not have much confidence in this "optimistic" schedule...

...The Geneva Conference of 1954 agreed that Vietnam should be one country, not two...

...plan for "winning victory" as described in the Wall Street Journal report includes an ultimatum to Ho Chi Minh ordering him to stop the rebellion in the South...

...The fact that the United States is fighting an "undeclared war" in a former French colonial area of Southeast Asia has been well publicized...

...Simultaneously the "bleeding" of North Vietnam will be speeded up by "helping the South Vietnamese anti-Communists organize guerrilla attacks within North Vietnam, threatening the stability of Ho Chi Minh's regime there...

...Paratroopers are flown from Okinawa to the Philippines in practice for being dropped "in Red territory," and to practice the "arts" of what our press calls "dirty fighting...

...Steady escalation of direct U.S...

...On the contrary, the State Department's own report explains that most of the guerrillas' "modern" weapons are "French or U.S.-made, or handmade on primitive forges in the jungles...

...These troops were not dispatched to resist an invading army, or even to fight guerrillas...

...A writer in the Wall Street Journal noted: "Khrushchev has complained that the United States is fighting an 'undeclared war' in South Vietnam . . . Khrushchev is for once quite correct...

...Determined on victory in South Vietnam, the makers of U.S...

...The official U. S. accusation (as presented in a State Department pamphlet) points only to a "determined and ruthless campaign of propaganda, infiltration, and subversion...

...The only restriction specifically mentioned by the Wall Street Journal report is the restriction against pursuing the enemy beyond a national boundary...

...We are told that the United States has stockpiles of nuclear weapons in Okinawa...

...All of this could be meant as a warning to Peking not to intervene in the "little war" the United States is waging in Vietnam...

...The time to rethink this policy is now—before mounting American casualties and the importunities of the fanatic "no substitute for victory" elements in our country drive us past the point of no return...

...Admittedly, the problem of gaining "victory" lies in the widely publicized fact that the people of Vietnam prefer the "Reds" to "our man Diem...

...She is the author of three books, Year of the Wild Boar, Mirror for Americans—Japan, and The First Book of Japan...

...It is hoped that the U.S.S.R...

...When such policy-planning is stated bluntly—without the customary circumlocutions of our anti-Communist ideology—it sounds preposterous...

...It is the Americans who are a long way from home...

...And this is not excluded as a possibility...

...and even the Communists, both South and North, are native Vietnamese...

...The United States, according to the Wall Street Journal report, would make such an attack "reluctantly...

...Leaders Are Determined on Victory, Even If It Means Invading Red Territory...

...Interestingly, the official appraisal is that at a rather clearly defined moment it could well 'escalate' and its dimensions could surpass the Korean war though stopping short of full-scale nuclear conflict...

...This theory assumes that both Peking and Moscow are so fearful of U.S...

...It is this fact that has given rise to the warnings that "victory" will be long delayed...

...or China...

...government, in effect, tells the Vietnamese "Reds" to go back where they came from or be killed, it puts both the "Reds" and the American people in a difficult position...

...It is not generally recognized that there is grave danger this "little war" will "escalate" first to North Vietnam, then to China, and then to the U.S.S.R...

...strategic planners have made up their minds that if they do "escalate," and carry the war directly to North Vietnam, they will nol be hampered by the sort of restrictions the United Nations imposed in the Korean police-action...

...It is acknowledged that he is in power only because massive United States support has kept him there...

...The United States charges also that to a certain extent the guerrillas have been "supplied" by North Vietnam, and indirectly by the U.S.S.R...

...Here is how the Wall Street Journal report puts it: "Suppose, for instance, that Ngo Dinh Diem's government, already lacking solid support through the countryside, suffers further grave erosion, while the Red guerrillas gain...

...This was reported as a major military operation in which thirty U.S...

...Such a statement may be comforting to the elements in our country that cry "no-win...

...These intentions are said to include a possible U.S...

...Two, the estimate that if the "little war" is not won soon, the American people will become dissatisfied and public opinion will turn against the war...

...The press informs us (and Peking) that the United States has "nuclear-capable" weapons distributed all over the area—even in the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu...

...policy must be willing to elevate the plane of warfare if low-level fighting isn't producing results...

...military preparations in the Far East and Southeast Asia is so disproportionate to any policy short of planned invasion of mainland China, that no matter how innocent U.S...

...In Vietnam today the United States is waging war to impose an American solution...

...They tend to look at Diem as a kind of American puppet, the successor to Bao Dai, the French puppet, and at the Americans as the successors to French colonial rule...

...This policy not only violates international commitments, but risks sparking a nuclear war...

...It adds that the guerrillas get most of their "modern" weapons by capturing them from Diem's forces who have been supplied by the United States...

...As the Wall Street Journal puts it, "the public might suppose it will close as it has begun as a small war, with limited casualties...

...There is no evidence whatever that Ho Chi Minh is responsible either for starting the rebellion or for its continuance...

...military leaders have often gone on record as believing that if in any situation nuclear weapons are needed to "win victory," then nuclear weapons must be used...

...Such "warnings," however, are bound to seem threatening...

...nuclear power that neither government will risk military involvement in any situation in which the United States makes it clear that the U.S.-assumed "national interests" are deeply involved...

...The governments of North Vietnam, Peking, and Moscow have long urged negotiations to settle the problem of Vietnam, as the problem of Laos has been settled, by negotiation...

...What they do forecast is that the war will spread—either by intervention from China, or by a decision of the U.S...

...These strategists assume that the guerrillas in South Vietnam are "re-manned" and "re-stocked" from North Vietnam...

...If U.S...

...When the U.S...

...It is recognized that although Ho is a Communist, he is not a "puppet" of either the U.S.S.R...

...It was Diem, not Ho, who "partitioned" the country by refusing to allow the nationwide election agreed to by the Geneva Accords of 1954...

...intentions for the future...

...Yet for over a year our press has been full of grimly realistic descriptions of the situation in South Vietnam—and the frustration of American planners who have determined that Vietnam is a "piece of strategic real estate" which the United States must not "yield to the Reds...

...As the Times reported, "Many of the farmers and villages in this area support the Viet Cong or have relatives among the guerrillas...

...Suppose, too, the American public becomes disturbed by slowly mounting casualty lists in what appears to be an elusive, futile contest...

...Contingents of Marines "look the ground over" in preparation for involvement...

...We will remain here until we win...

...But, the Wall Street Journal adds, "maybe not...

...In other contexts, however, U.S...

...Jacques Nevard, reporting recently in the New York Times on stepped-up U.S...

...mil-itary may be forced "reluctantly" to bomb North Vietnam, is based on two factors: One, the fact that the U.S.-supported regime of President Ngo Dinh Diem has virtually no support in South Vietnam...

...It was Diem who began "cold" hostilities by outlawing the Communist Party in the South and cutting off all ties with the North...

...However, this is a risk that must be accepted...

...It is further argued that the rivalry between the U.S.S.R...

...Moreover, U.S...

...forces fought up to the Yalu River...

...In early July, Khruschev pointedly declared that any attack on China would be met with a "crushing rebuff" not only from the U.S.S.R...

...Diem would not be President today and South Vietnam would not exist...

...Some guerrilla fighters have come down to the South from the North, but the relation of these guerrillas to the North Vietnam government has still to be clarified...

...If [U.S.] army divisions were poured in, they'd be thrown into North Vietnam, not South Vietnam...

...For these Vietnamese "Reds" are already where they came from...

...The guerrillas have not depended on North Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh to keep them fighting, but rather on the South Vietnamese peasants...

...They suggest that if the U.S.-supported forces can keep on "killing off" the guerrillas, the assumed infiltration from the North will result in "bleeding" North Vietnam into a state of weakness...

...In short, it is the United States, not the Soviet Union, that has been supplying the guerrillas, however unintentionally...

...The possibility of "escalation" of this "little war" into a "Korea-type" conflict involving China is obviously grave...

...If the Chinese intervene—either before the open attack against North Vietnam, or after—the United States is prepared to carry the war to China...

...The Editors Just as the powerful megaton H-bomb is triggered by a "little" kiloton A-bomb, so the nuclear conflict that nobody wants may well be triggered by the "little war" the United States is fighting in Vietnam...

...Speaking at the well-guarded airfield in Saigon last February, Attorney General Robert Kennedy declared: "We are going to win in Vietnam...

...This conclusion, that the U.S...

...through jungle trails leading from Laos...

...press reports are true, American "Special Forces" are already active in North Vietnam...

...It is generally agreed that infiltrators from the North are a minor part of the guerrilla force, which includes a variety of discontented South Vietnamese...

...The important point is that many rebels called "Communists" are not Communists...

...This spring, Joseph Alsop, reporting from Thailand, wrote: "As though to prove the United States means business, American soldiers in the guise of 'advisers' have been ordered into combat in an undeclared war for the first time in history...

...bombers would in fact go to work on the airfields, ports, and rail lines of North Vietnam...

...and China, especially in Southeast Asia, is so serious that the U.S.S.R...

...The road to "victory," however, involves risks that, although reported, are played down...

...The governments of both Peking and Moscow have warned of the dangers of such reasoning...

...emphasis added) ¦ Thus, by fighting in South Vietnam, and carrying on guerrilla warfare in North Vietnam, it is argued that "by the most optimistic schedule . . . America would have won this war—about three years from today...

...The sum of U.S...

...the report adds that if the United States cannot subdue the native rebels within a few years by using these methods, it will bomb North Vietnam...

...The hope that China might not intervene, and the hope that such intervention might not involve the U.S.S.R.—and so would "stop short of full-scale nuclear conflict"—derives from the "brink of war" strategy popularized by the late Secretary of State John Foster Dulles...

...military operations, stated that some Vietnamese army officers "believe the Reds' losses in manpower and material will be made up quickly by the region's population, the majority of which was anti-government even before government soldiers and aircraft turned their guns on entire villages...

...It is irrational for the United States to risk nuclear war in order to "hold on to a piece of strategic real estate" in Southeast Asia...

...The Wall Street Journal goes on to explain that many American strategists "doubt the fighting can be ended simply by killing off or capturing the Communist guerrillas operating in South Vietnam, leaving no enemy...

...This is especially true since Chiang Kai-shek keeps issuing statements declaring that the economic crisis in mainland China makes this the psychological moment to launch that invasion the Chinese Nationalists have threatened for so long...

...As this Wall Street Journal report explains the situation in Vietnam, what is going on now is less important than U.S...

...planning...

...He added that "the great mass of the peasants" are indifferent to ideology...

...The U.S...

...The restriction against use of nuclear weapons is not mentioned...

...What is described as Pentagon planning, endorsed by U.S...

...will stay out of it...

...If this report had been published in the Communist press, instead of in a responsible, conservative New York newspaper, it would have been indignantly denounced by U.S...

...Press accounts have described operations in which people were moved from their homes into distant stockaded barracks...

...Helen Mears, who has lived in both China and Japan, has written widely on foreign affairs...

...U. S. policy in both Laos and Vietnam has justified the charge that the United States interprets "neutrality" to mean "pro-United States...

...Once their villages become "strategic hamlets," the people are not allowed to go outside except to tend their fields...

...The undeclared war the United States is waging in Vietnam is being waged, in a literal sense, against the Vietnamese people...

...and it agreed that the whole of Indo-China should be neutral...

...It is worthwhile to examine this report from Washington in some detail, for we can be quite certain that representatives of foreign governments and the foreign press have done so...

...ties between the North Vietnam government and the guerrillas in the South are speculative...

...This objective may be achieved, or, as the Wall Street Journal said, "maybe not...

...The fact that President Diem has virtually no support anywhere in South Vietnam is widely recognized...

...The State Department also says that "knives, machetes, spears, and other primitive weapons are more common than modern firearms...

...Peking, as well as Hanoi (North Vietnam), has declared that U. S. military activities in South Vietnam constitute aggression and a threat to the peace...

...Homer Bigart, New York Times correspondent, reported at the conclusion of a six-month tour of duty in South Vietnam that "the Vietnamese president seems incapable of winning the loyalty of his people...

...military strategy for winning "victory" involves carrying the war to Ho Chi Minh's Communist-dominated North Vietnam...

...Army and Marine Corps helicopters transported a thousand government troops to an area only thirty-five miles north of Saigon...

...disclaimers of support for such an invasion will seem less convincing to Peking than the fact of massive U. S. military power in the Far East, combined with growing power and actual fighting in South Vietnam...

...This makes it difficult to "win with Diem...

...What does this report reveal, in essence, about U.S...

...As a major leader of the long years of fighting to gain independence from the French, Ho is widely recognized—in Vietnam and outside—as a patriot concerned with national independence and the welfare of the nation...

...Their chief mission was to hold at bay the inhabitants of two villages and force them to encircle the villages with a stockade of cement, barbed wire, and pointed stakes, so that the villagers could not help the guerrillas...