Last Chance on China

...But it would be the larger one in and the the smaller one out— a situation more tolerable to the majority...

...This does not appear to be a realistic hope...

...Although this would not be contrary to any existing rules of procedure, there is no exact precedent for it...

...There are conservatives who continue to believe that the seating of Communist China can be avoided, and there are liberals who refuse to support the continued defense of Formosa...

...At that time it was clear that a United States-supported two-China resolution stood an excellent chance in this year's Assembly, and it was already becoming clear that by next year the growing strength of the Peking regime would be sufficient to thwart such a move...

...There are several ways in which this could be accomplished, even granting the inevitable seating of the People's Republic...

...Possibly this anticipated reaction will convince the Assembly to abandon the idea...

...If public opinion has developed this far without any leadership from elected officials, one wonders just how far it could be carried under a more normal circumstance in which political leaders were speaking their minds instead of their fears...

...But if it is the more desirable of the two solutions, it is also the more difficult to achieve...

...It is indicative— and it is time more Americans woke u p to this unfortunate truth— of an internal crisis in the United States of enormous magnitude...

...The Gallup Poll reported March 19, 1961, that more than fifty per cent of Americans think we should "improve relations" with Communist China...

...It may be that it is already too late, that 1961 is the last year the Assembly would seriously entertain this idea, and that by dragging its feet right up to the convening of the sixteenth Assembly the United States has already lost too much of the valuable time needed to weld together the necessary two-thirds majority...

...More relevantly, however, I have learned from my year-long inquiries that more than three-fourths of the members of the United Nations believe that it is against their best interests to keep Peking cut off from regular communications with the rest of the world...

...By declaring its willingness to seat both Chinas, the General Assembly would neither be creating nor making permanent the partition of China, but merely noting that de facto partition is now and has been since 1949 one of the results of the Chinese civil war...

...The Assembly would simply declare its willingness to seat both Chinas as two successor states to the original Republic of China...

...two, acceptance of this offer by Chiang's government which would then formally leave its seat on the Council and take its Assembly seat under the new terms as a successor state...

...It is an appealing plan, particularly when consideration is given to the fact that nine million of the eleven million people on the island are native Formosans...

...URBAN WHITAKER, who teaches international relations at San Francisco State College, has just completed a year as visiting research scholar at Columbia University where he spent full time working on the China question...

...2) one way or another the Chinese Communists are going to be seated (by 1962 at the latest...

...What we have to face u p to are the facts that 1) the question is going to be discussed at length...

...For twelve years our policy has been to keep Communist China out of the United Nations by insisting that the question should not even be discussed by the General Assembly...

...Yet this does not alter the fact that it is the majority of the General Assembly—not individual members like China—whose proper role it is to set the conditions for representation...

...It would require, first, that, the Chiang regime apply for membership and thus abandon its claim to represent China...

...government...

...If this is true, then the real China crisis came early in the summer of 1961 when the United States apparently decided that domestic pressures forbade a policy change which international good sense required...

...The majority of the General Assembly, including many of our closest friends and allies, having recognized Mao as Chiang's successor, would be hard put to reject the allegation...

...For example, the fear that it would set a pattern for the resolution of the German problem is based on a confusion of representation with partition...

...But there is no significant sympathy for seating India in place of China...

...It is now clear, however, that the planning of U.S...

...What America needs at this point is one ranking public official with the courage to lead public opinion to where it ought to be instead of following it to where he fears it is...

...Perhaps the most significant aspect of this partially conservative proposal (it would keep Taiwan in the United Nations) is that, although it represents their best realistic hope, the conservatives have categorically rejected it...

...This would merely amount to a reversal of the present situation...

...Our aim, therefore, should be to seek effective international backing for the continued independence of Formosa from the mainland...

...its influence in Asia, Africa, and even Latin America has expanded at a startling rate...

...debate to toleration of a two-China arrangement— provided that Chiang Kai-shek's government retains its seat as a great power on the Security Council...

...Still the impression persists that public opinion prevents a sensible China policy...

...or one China, Communist China...

...It is the doctrine of "successor states...

...Seventh Fleet in the Formosa Straits constitutes an act of aggression against China...

...Proponents of this solution often mention India as an appropriate replacement for China on the Council...

...T h e most characteristic value of democracy—and its greatest strength—is put in cold storage...

...The Committee's claim to represent public opinion is particularly ludicrous in view of the recent policy decision of the General Synod of the United Church (2,000,000 members) which supports United Nations representation for the Peking government...

...This article is based primarily on the results of intensive interviews with ninety-six United Nations delegations...

...For the United States the relevant question, therefore, is no longer whether Peking should or should not be in the United Nations, but what to do about the fact that she soon will be...

...Internationally, there is no way to avoid the seating of Communist China in the United Nations...

...it has made aggressive gestures toward the offshore islands...

...Yet, as a solution to the Chinese representation question, I learned that "Formosa for the Formosans" is unacceptable to the General Assembly...

...Before examining this range of realistic alternatives, however, it is appropriate to look at the other theoretical alternatives— some of which are supported by American liberal groups...

...One proposal mentioned on the floor of the General Assembly, is "two Chinas with neither one on the Security Council...

...What must be overcome if the Assembly is to choose a two-China solution in preference to a one China (Communist) solution is an assortment of understandable, but largely irrelevant, fears and misconceptions about the meaning of the successor states theory...

...This brings us to the range of politically feasible alternatives as I encountered them in my United Nation interviews...

...discussion has steadily dwindled from a high of thirty-five in 1952 to just eight votes in 1960...

...For example, the conservatives favor a range of solutions which runs from a continuation of the moratorium on U.N...

...China policy is widespread misunderstanding of the range of alternatives...

...The two-Chinas proposal may already have been eliminated as a realistic alternative because it has not received the full support of the U.S...

...Thus has U.S...

...In short, the United States would be facing the next Formosa crisis pretty much alone and in an awkward legal position...

...There are two Chinas...

...Since the end of the Korean War, the widespread emotional feeling of the China question has largely dissipated...

...No able historian will be able to treat this generation's leadership with much sympathy, for it is already clear that our failure to debate the China question has been both disas trous and unnecessary...

...It is a frightening illustration of the depth of our domestic illness that even many liberals consider it politically dangerous to espouse the relatively conservative two-Chinas idea...

...national interest is: one, Assembly passage of a "successor states" resolution offering seats to both Peking and Taipeh and recommending that Peking, as the primary successor, be seated by the Security Council...

...protection of Formosa would have international approval, for it is hardly to be imagined that the General Assembly would take the formal action to expel a cooperative Nationalist government in favor of a recalcitrant Communist one...

...While as many as two-thirds of the delegates would like to see a truly free Formosa, they would not seriously consider international action to replace the established government...

...In spite of all indications, however, that public opinion is not only open to sensible suggestions, but actually moving in a liberal direction, it is rare for an elected official (except the extreme right wing) to be candid on the China question...

...and, finally, the margin of U.S...

...But the Chinese case is unique in that it amounts to the problems of seating a government to represent the state that is already admitted and admitting a state to be represented by the government which is already seated...

...At the very least Mao Tse-tung could claim U.S...

...The first method is to admit Formosa as a new member...

...Two methods have been suggested for achieving the two-China result and assuring that representation in the United Nations would be an accurate reflection of reality in world politics...

...But they clearly rule out the three solutions approved by conservatives: the continuing moratorium on debate, the status quo, and two Chinas with the smaller one in the bigger seat...

...policy planners have to reckon with both...

...This is not to say that either condition is desirable...

...But the people have moved ahead of the politicians...

...The failure of the United States to develop and seek support for such policy over the past few months seriously, and perhaps fatally, weakens our position at the current session of the Assembly...

...Such a result would put the maximum pressure on the Peking Government to accept the Assembly's twoChina decision, and that government would clearly bear the onus for its own non-representation if it declined to do so...

...I want to make it clear that I do not make this suggestion in order to draw a rejection from Peking...

...So long as liberal public officials who understand the need for a more creative policy toward China are afraid to speak up, we cannot hope to develop a more hopeful and constructive approach to the challenge of China...

...In view of Peking's violent opposition to the idea, this also seems unrealistic...

...It is clear from my intensive researches at the United Nations that the General Assembly, which could be encouraged to adopt a two-China policy if ,the United States would support the idea, is preparing to seat Communist China in a simple credentials vote either this year or next and thus expel the Nationalist Chinese representatives from the organization...

...One of the reasons for the continuing failure of U.S...

...Combined with differences of opinion as to what is desirable, this confusion has at least blurred, if not obscured, our view of international reality...

...It simply won't work...

...There would still be two Chinas with one in and one out of the United Nations...

...When this happens, India will probably be given a permanent seat...

...This new oneChina solution, while it does not wholly reflect the continuing twoChinas reality, more nearly approximates reality than the older oneChina solution...

...Summing up the picture at the United Nations as the sixteenth Assembly begins, it is clear that the very best situation which can be envisaged in terms of the U.S...

...The so-called Committee of One Million, a violently pro-Chiang Kai-shek pressure group which claims to have obtained 1,037,000 signatures in 1954, admits in 1961 that it has only 6,000 contributors...

...interference in the internal affairs of China...

...We have allowed the narrow interests of a small ally abroad and a small pressure group at home to dictate policy...

...In short, Communist China has managed to become a major world power during the period we pretended she didn't exist...

...If our own intransigence narrows the range to this one choice, there will remain only the hope that the Assembly will make the seating of the People's Republic of China conditional on the continued de facto separation of Formosa from the mainland...

...policy must take both of these conditions into account...

...They simply are, and will continue for some time to be, facts of life, and U.S...

...The lack of strong American leadership probably does...

...The lack of exact precedent, however, does not constitute an insurmountable barrier...

...They all have the same fatal defect—they cannot win acceptance in the Assembly...

...This would make it possible to seat both Chinas without formal action by the Security Council to admit the second one...

...This determination not to interfere in the domestic affairs of its members does not mean that the United Nations will ignore reality...

...victory on the moratorium on U.N...

...Neither of them would be obligated to accept and, indeed, it might be that neither would...

...This won't happen...

...Still it seems quite evident that Peking's determination to wait it out can only be tested by the affirmative action of the Assembly...

...As a result, the national interest of the United States has been miserably served and the Chinese Communists have gained enough strength to bargain us into submission...

...Partly as a result of this frustration, however, a new approach has been developed which would make it feasible for the Assembly to declare itself in favor of seating two Chinas...

...These facts, stubbornly ratified by the convictions of the majority of the United Nations, still leave considerable room for the development of compromise solutions...

...Probably Communist China would reject any two-China solution...

...A Council on Foreign Relations poll of leading citizens in twenty-nine American communities during the same month showed that forty-five per cent definitely favored, or were favorably inclined toward, seating Communist China (as against fifty per cent op posed or unfavorably inclined and five per cent undecided...

...Nor do I think that Peking would for very long reject a two-China solution approved by two-thirds of the General Assembly...

...The composition of the Security Council cannot be changed without a Charter amendment which requires the unanimous consent of the five permanent powers...

...A proposal which has gained considerably greater support among American liberals is the "One ChinaOne Formosa plan" under which Peking would take the present Chinese seat while the Nationalistheld island would be turned over to the native Formosans and admitted as a new member state...

...It is one of the most tragic commentaries on our times that the United States has persisted in a head-inthesand policy that can only end in defeat and disaster...

...support for Chiang Kai-shek's Formosan-based regime, could lead to international disaster...

...Assuming that the United States will continue to offer political, economic, and military support to the Nationalist government on Taiwan, there can be no doubt that we will find it less embarrassing and the world will find it less dangerous if the United Nations chooses the first alternative—two Chinas...

...If that is so, the very large majority of United Nations members will turn to a simpler solution— the seating of the Peking government in place of the present Chinese delegation...

...Chiang Kai-shek's dictatorial rule, under which it remains illegal to organize an opposition party or to criticize the government in the press, only increases the appeal of self-determination...

...it has fought a war against the United Nations...

...But if it has been absurd for us to postpone the inevitable while matters grew steadily worse, it is even less an act of sanity that we now surrender the opportunity to make them better...

...Not only would Chiang's China have to consent to her own removal, but the Soviet Union, already in trouble with Peking, would have to approve rejection of a seat to Communist China and risk an open breach in the Sino-Soviet alliance...

...Both liberals and conservatives have made the mistake of confusing the theoretically possible with the politically feasible...

...As the New York Post has put it, the Administration seems to confuse the voice of the Committee of One Million (6,000) with the voice of America (180,000,000...

...This result, combined with continued U.S...

...Nor woulcl the Assembly be interfering in China's affairs by offering representation to the two existing governments...

...Another way is to estimate what it invites for the future...

...Since the Communists control more than four million square miles of Chinese mainland and nearly 700 million Chinese people, while the Nationalists are master of just 13,000 square miles of islands and eleven million people, these proposals qualify more as pipedreams than as policy...

...3) Chiang's Nationalists are not a "great power" and are not going to be treated as such by the rest of the world...

...The Syria-Egypt merger to form the United Arab Republic is the nearest thing to a precedent, as one new state achieved membership and two old ones left the organization—all without any formal action by the Security Council...

...Communist China will not accept, and most of the members of the United Nations do not think she should be asked to accept, a back seat to Nationalist China in the United Nations...

...United States policy toward China fails both tests...

...Because this road to two Chinas seems effectively blocked, a deep sense of frustration has permeated the China discussion in the lounges and corridors at the United Nations for several years...

...I n any case, the prevailing mood of the General Assembly is that if there is to be only one China in the organization it should be mainland China...

...Domestically, there is no chance for revision of the pro-Chiang commitment...

...Briefly there are only two: two Chinas, with the big one on the Security Council and both in the Assembly...

...Whichever way Peking decided, the Taipeh government's position would be safe, and continued U.S...

...It is true that the Afro-Asian group seeks, and that the Soviet Union is likely to support, an enlargement of the Security Council...

...The same poll showed sixty-one per cent definitely against or tending to be against continuing the moratorium on United Nations debate...

...The mainland government, having received the blessing of the United Nations as the legitimate successor of Chiang's decrepit and discredited regime, could make .a powerful legal case that the continued presence of the U.S...

...The result is a gross distortion of both public opinion and public policy...

...Three successive Administrations—Truman's, Eisenhower's, and Kennedy's—have insisted in private that it would be political suicide for them to say in public what they really thought on the issue of China...

...It is of critical importance to the United States that the United Nations choose one, rather than the other, of the alternatives which are being seriously considered...

...it has taken over Tibet...

...Anyone who would have it otherwise—either one Nationalist China, or one Communist China, or one China and one Formosa—must look elsewhere than to the United Nations for help...

...We do not even debate the single most vital challenge which faces this and every other country on earth—the Communist revolution of nearly 700 million Chinese...

...In that dozen years the People's Republic of China has been recognized by thirty-nine other states, including four of our NATO allies, it has steadily grown more powerful— militarily, economically, and politically...

...policy failed the test of time...

...It would require, too, that the Security Council approve Chiang's application and thus that the Soviet Union concur in the twoChina solution...

...Probably the most significant result of our self-defeating policy is to be found in the fact that the inevitable moment when the Peking government must come into the United Nations has been postponed just long enough for it to bargain from the position of strength it has won while waiting...

...Aside from the obvious shortcomings of this plan, that it denies major power status to a major power, it suffers the same fatal defects as the more conservative plans which would leave Chiang Kai-shek on the Council...

...H both accepted, the United Nations would have two Republics of Chinas as it now has two Congos, which it identifies with the parenthetical suffixes (Brazzaville) and (Leopoldville...

...It does mean, however, that the United Nations will not act to make any dramatic changes in the distribution of sovereignty...