BALANCING THE FARM OUTPUT

...The effect of the system would be to encourage a farmer who has a 400-bushel allotment to produce up to that limit...

...Furthermore, it is not possible to produce the total necessary supply of the major crops under least cost conditions...

...One uncontrollable factor always enters into the probIem...

...Not that the author's treatment of the problem is highbrow Lbeyond the grasp of the average reader, it requires concentrated thought and often a second or third turning back to some of the chapters to fully assimilate the contents...

...There are some examples tending to show what farmers will do, when they know what is best to do...

...They are corn, hay, wheat, oats and cotton...

...It costs a lot of money to bring a young orchard to the production stage...

...To those who object to the whole theory of a tariff as wrong in principle, who insist that everything should be produced only where it can be produced most advantageously, he says that farm labor and capital are especially handicapped in any attempt to change occupation and improve conditions...

...Any plan that will markedly increase acreage will fail...

...The same objection that holds against a tariff for stabilization of farm products, holds* against a tariff on articles farmers buy, because our farmers must compete in the world markets with those of other countries, who buy in un-nrotected markets...

...In fact all the crops on which a tariff is to be paid the producer would be handled at the same time by the same organiza-tione in the manner outlined for wheat...

...te fully realizes that balancing the farm crop production to the requirements of the consium-fcg public is not a mere matter of statistics to oe worked out wkh pencil and paper...

...The farmer need not quit his occupation until the point has been reached where the value has been taken out of his land and his income been reduced so that he caji no longer live on it...

...Previous to 190$, the price of apples had for some time been low, and there had been little or no planting of new trees...

...Spillman answers: The cost of living in Europe in spite of the import of food is less than in this country, largely because of the smaller profits exacted by tradesmen...

...Orange Judd Publishing Co., New Yo* City...

...TO some of the arguments against governmental aid to stabilization of prices, Dr...

...The Federal Department of Agriculture is now working on this problem, and it should not be long until the Outlook and Intentions Reports will give apple growers just the informs tion needed to stabilize the acreage of this important crop...

...The school house unit fa placed in communication with the State College of Agriculture and the United States Department of Agriculture, where the calculations are made and the results forecast to all the farmers, as to how many more acres or how many less acres of a given crop should be planted this year as compared with last year on a basis of average yield...

...Throughout the discussion the author shows sympathetic nractical understanding of the farm problem...

...No other crop occupies as much as 9,000,000...

...but the organization and efficiency of the great industrial world cannot be ^ttained in agriculture even if desired, at least not for a long time to come...

...What is needed to stabilize the acreage of apples is that every grower should know at the time he is planting what percentage the planting that year should be of the present apple tree population, in order that the acreage might be maintained at its normal level...

...It is probable that far more than half of the orchards planted from 1905 to 1912 were abandoned before they ever came into bearing...

...Such a change in acreage might double or treble the price of potatoes...

...We have a 9,000,000-aere surplus of wheat, the export of which controls the home price...

...Assuming that all the details of the plan have been worked out, that the Commission of experts has been created, that the schoolhouse organization has been effected, that the statistics and data have been gathered and formulated ready for use, we may get an idea of how "The Limited Debenture Plan" works by applying it to wheat...

...Spillman outlines what he calls The Limited Debenture Plan," which he believes is economically sound and would brin^f farmers, whose income is chiefly from major crops, the fair return to which they are entitled...

...DR...

...Spillman...

...To make a reduction in the acreage of the five major corps of 30,000,000 acres or even of 10,-000,000 acres is a very different problem from decreasing the acreage of minor crops...

...In the last extremity, the Constitution itself might be amended...

...Experience is as yet too limited to show just how farmers will respond to widely disseminated information and advice regarding the planting of their crops...

...If this Intentions Report shows too large a planting, the farmers are advised what percentage to reduce the acreage...

...That year part of the new planting came into bearing...

...After the planting season was over a survey was made with a view to ascertaining the acreage actually planted...

...The procedure for any other crop would be the same...

...The data for the Intentions Report were obtained by questionnaires sent to a large number of farmers after the Outlook Report had been made public...

...A 6,000,000-acre surplus of corn makes the price lower than the cost of production...

...Hard times prevailed in apple-growing regions for some years afterwards...

...At the same time, if he were to hire his work done, it might cost him $3.00 a day...

...Spillman contends such aid is justified by the protective tariff given the manufacturing industries, by legislation favoring banks and creditors, by the guarantee of profits to the railroads, by the exemption of organized labor from the antitrust laws and by the protection of labor with immigration laws...

...Possibly, however, if lawyers as able as those employed by the railroads could be induced to study the matter, a constitutional way to enact such a measure might be found...

...But if corn, for instance, were substituted for this area of potatoes it would mean an increase of only one-third of 1 per cent in the corn area, and the resulting effect on the price of corn would be so slight as to be scarcely noticeable...

...The only way to get reduction would be to put the land in pasture, in forest trees, ©r to leave it completely idle...

...Spillman takes a firm stand on the lu-oposition that there is no ethical reason why farmers should work for less than other people whose work requires the same amount of intelligence and skill...

...All other crops are grouped together as Minors...

...SPILLMAN would use the schoolhouse as the center of organization of a universal farmers' statistical and information service...

...With conditions as assumed, a farmer who ordinarily produces 600 bushels of wheat for sale would get an allotment of 400 bushels on which he could receive tariff...

...The yield may be much above or much below the normal, but stabilization of acreage is bound to reduce to a material extent the fluctuation in production and consequently the fluctuation in price, incident to an altogether haphazard, chance-taking policy...

...We might as well expect the weather forecast always to be infallible as to hope for a perfect balance in crop production and crop con-Sumption, which will insure the farmer a fair jirke...

...Farming is first of all an elemental, close-to-nature human relationship that research and experiment may help to place on a more scientific basis...

...Naturally there was some anxiety to see what the Intentions Report, to be issued March W, would show, says Dr...

...W. J. Spill man, Agricultural Economist, United States Department of Agriculture, Discusses Adjustment of Farm Production to Needs of Consuming Public By BELLE CASE LA FOLLETTE MOCT READERS of Dr...

...It happened also to be a good apple year, the yield per tree being large...

...AFTER considering other plans of government aid to the stabilization of major Crops to insure farmers a fair price for their Jrroducts, Dr...

...Spillman's recent book on present-day deplorable conditions of farming, causes and remedies will regret its brevi-ty...

...During this period there were years when the three states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho together ordered three times as many apple trees as all the nurseries of the United States could supply...

...But by 190f> the acreage of apple orchards had decreased to a point considerably below the normal for tliat time...

...A farmer who is his own manager, who does his own labor, may be able to live on a labor income of 50 cents a day...

...A 6,000,000-acre surplus of oats makes a larger supply than can be sold at a profit...

...The planting continued until and including the spring of 1912...

...As a result, farmers, especially those dependent on cotton, corn, wheat, oats, hay and beef cattle for their income, have had about the hardest time ever known in this coentry...

...The principles involved in balancing the output of Major and Minor Crops are entirely different...

...If the acreage of apple trees could be stabilized, production would be more nearly stable than it is now and thus should tend to stabilize the wholesale price...

...SALT FERTILIZER ANOTHER use for man's old table ally has lately been definitely proven successful by science...

...The farmers having once organized and elected a secretary, the machinery of the school <fistrict local is ready for the collection of facts ind for receiving advice...

...On the majority of these units the labor is done by unpaid members of the farm family throughout the greatest portion of the year...

...The Commission then proceeds to allot this 400 millions to the various producers as nearly as possible in proportion to their usual production for sale...

...The many economic facts and valuable suggestions which fortify the argument and conclusions, however, make it interesting reading quite independent of the main thesis...

...In the fall of 1912 as good apples as ever grew were sold in the Willamette Valley of Oregon for $6 a. ton...

...If the Intentions Report indicates too small a planting, there is a chance to increase the acreage with probability of a fair profit...

...Actual cash expenses in farming are relatively small...

...But this factor could not have been responsible for the very moderate increase in acreage indicated by the Intentions Report, for at the time farmers expressed their intentions it was not known that the season would be late...

...IN TILE 193G Outlook Report, issued February 7th by the United States Department of Agriculture, the following statement occurs concerning the potato acreage: "An increase of 10 por cent in acreage, with normal yields, is about the limit that would prove profitable...

...A stabilization of acreage will not, of course, always result in getting a fair price...

...It is only natural that under such conditions there should have been urgent demand for governmental aid to agriculture...

...TAKE the case of apples, for instance, cited by Dr...

...So important a question of such universal interest might well be covered by easier stages...

...To the objection that the plan might be unconstitutional, he replies: Much would depend on the attitude of the courts...

...In this way, the farmer would get a tariff on that part of his production which passes into the markets for consumption in this country, and the plan would practically insure production up to the needs of the country...

...Farming is conducted in six and one-half million small units...

...Now its capability is perfectly known...

...This stopped the orgy of tree planting, but, alas, not until it had greatly exceeded the permissible acreage of apples...

...That also happened to be a poor apple year...

...THE STATUS of the Major Crops is indicated by the fact that we have a surplus of at least ten million acres of cotton, ¦with no way of reducing it except by abandoning farm land...

...There are no other crops to be substituted for major crops...

...A 6,000,000 reduction in the number of horses has destroyed the market for 8,000,000 acres of hay...

...At that time the price of potatoes was extraordinarily high—a situation that in the past had always led to gross overplanting...

...Rudolfs, for at least 300 pounds are necessary to increase the average number of stalks per acre...

...on the price of the minor crop product and an extremely small effect on the price of the major crop product...

...There was a small crop with very high prices...

...But the farmer does not quit or even reduce production when prices first fail to meet the expense of production, interest on capital and current wages as the manufacturer does...

...We may suppose that for a given year the normal production of wheat for sale in the country as a whole is 600 million bushels, and that the normal export from a crop of that magnitude is 200 million bushels...

...A farmer can continue in business for a considerable length of time with much less than the current rate of interest on his investment and considerably less than the current rate of wages for his labor and that of the members of his family...

...William Rudolfs, of the New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station, led the studies, recently completed and has come to the conclu-* sion that salt does act as a valuable asparagus fertilizer...

...The Intentions Report, issued about the middle of March, shows what acreage the farmers are intending to plant...

...The Outlook Report, published the first of the year, gives an idea of the amount of increase or decrease in acreage desirable in order that there may be some profit assuming a normal yield...

...The lateness of the planting season was probably responsible, in part at least, for the fact that actual plantings were below intended plantings...

...A Government Commission would be created, empowered to license and bond all dealers in protected commodities...

...The total estimated surplus of these five major crops thus amounts to 39,000,000 acres...

...t 10 per cent reduction in the acreage of potatoes means in round numbers a decrease of ,"50,000 acres...

...This leaves 400 million for home consumption...

...The acreage of any minor crop can be increased or decreased very easily by interchang* of acreage with any of the major crops, with a very important effect...

...He says the little volume is the first attempt at an analysis of the problem of adjustment and control of farm production to meet market demand in a way to enable the farmer to get & fair price for his product...

...For instance...

...A substitution between a major and a minor crop is easily made...

...Much in the same way, however, as weather predictions are made possible by gather-mg information of local conditions and broadcasting the probable results, so widespread collection of facts in the matter of sowing and planting of crops can be made a helpful source of advice to the farmer as to what extent he should increase or decrease his acreage of corn, wheat and potatoes...

...He usually quits before this crisis has arrived as vast numbers of farmers have done since 1920...

...Farmers are already more or less familiar with the Outlook and Intentions Reports of the United States Department of Agriculture which Sim to give farmers two opportunities to adjust their planting...

...It is fundamental to the success of the plan that the tariff shall not stimulate increased acreage...

...The results of this survey indicated an actual increase of 2 per cent...

...Many farmers remain in business indefinitely, when the price they are able to get for their products is much less than is necessary to return current rate of interest en investments and current wages for labor...

...There are five crops, each of which, according to the census of 19Q4, occupies more than 37,-000,000 acres of land...

...sale price should have a tendency to lower th* retail price materially, and thus cause a larger consumptive demand for what is probably the most healthful of all the fruits — apples...

...Since the deflation following the war, we have had such large surpluses that prices for most of our leading farm products have been much below cost of production...

...Everyone who operates a farm would be member of this organization, whose purpose is to keep farmers posted on desirable increase fir decrease in production of stable crops to the end that prices may be as nearly as possible Stabilized at a point which will make farming profitable...

...IN ANALYSING the problem of balancing the agricultural output, it is necessary to distinguish two great groups of farm crops...

...But it would not stimulate production beyond its present level, for producers would get only the export price for the surplus of the product which goes into export...

...Instead of the usual large increase in potato acreage when the price of potatoes is high, the Intentions Report indicated that farmers were planning to increase the acreage only 4.3 per cent over that of 1926...

...A small amount does little good, according to Dr...

...The answers to these questionnaires were summarized and the results issued in the Intentions Report of March 19...

...If he produces beyond it he does so under the same stimulus that now leads him to produce 600 bushels...

...SINCE there is no way of balancing the output of such big acreage crops as wheat, cotton, etc., and such live-stock products as beef, they should share the protection, encouragement and prosperity which our government has seen fit to guarantee all elements that contribute to our national life, except agriculture...

...Spillman...

...He may produce all he wants to of the product, but when he exceeds the quantity for which tariff is allotted he takes prevailing market price without any tariff benefit...

...The five crops occupy* ing these great areas are caDod Major Crops...

...A stable whole*'"Balancing the Farm Output," $1.25...

...A definite limit must be placed on the amount of the product for which the producer gets the benefit of the tariff...

...For long, salflias been used to some extent as an asparagus fertilizer but only quite recently has a scientific study of its exact value been made...