SPEAK UP: NOW OR NEVER!

...It tends to split the people into two groups, one of which believes that war is inevitable and all negotiation futile, while an opposite group remains unconvinced that the sacrifices of full rearmament are really necessary...

...The false "reasoning" involved in this perfectly natural process of association confronts us with an apparent choice between war and a sacrifice of honor, whenever any government in the world loses its head and makes demands at the point of a gun...

...The struggle in the Near East centers about two factors: oil and the Dardanelles...

...The writer has all along held a different view of Soviet intentions...

...We are told that everything must now be sacrificed to rearmament— ' not because war is considered in1 evitable, or even probable, but because rapid rearmament is the only : way to prevent war—because we cannot negotiate until we have attained preponderance of power...

...No one can state with assurance that the United States and the no tions friendly to it could now honor-ably find a way to pacify China and the Soviet Union by satisfying their "just" requirements, even though satisfaction is demanded at the point of a gun...

...Hence, whenever this danger seems to be approaching, Moscow deliberately conducts a "peace offensive" designed to lull the coalition into renewed passivity...

...Our primary interest is—or should be—not to walk into the Kremlin trap by becoming involved in a full-scale war with China...

...Perhaps the irreducible requirements of the Soviet Union and those of the anti-Soviet coalition have actually become irreconcilable...

...We could suggest that, if civil war should once more break out in Korea, all other nations pledge themselves to refrain from any form of official or so-called "volunteer" intervention, whether military, political or economic...

...Yet China has attacked our troops in Korea on a UN mission, and has inflicted upon us the worst military defeat in our history...

...He wants to prevent our rearming Japan and to keep Japan from remaining under our control...

...If the Chinese Government is sufficiently independent of Moscow to be able to see and act in its own interest, these four "concessions" on our part ought to lead to a peaceful settlement...

...In my judgment, these conditions will be fulfilled only when both the Soviet Union and the United States make up their minds—which neither of them has done—that the United Nations must be transformed into a world organization capable of enacting, administering, and enforcing world law...

...By alternately creating and relaxing tension, the Kremlin seeks to keep the West off balance—to bring about enough Western rearmament to inhibit effective political and economic action (which Russia really fears), but not enough rearmament to constitute a menace...

...I believe that any such assumption represents a gross underestimate of phi common sense of the American fpeople and their desire to back any sensible and honorable effort to save the world from disaster...

...In Europe, we are in conflict with Russia over the future of Germany...

...In essence, both sides sought the control of Germany—or, at worst, to deny control to the other...

...He has believed that the Russian dream of world conquest is not a plan with a definite time-table but, rather, a long-range ambition to be realized primarily by political means—that is to say, by exploiting what the Russians consider the inevitable trends of history...

...To let Russia into Iran now, when war is still a distinct possibility, would be foolish...

...This is dangerous nonsense which may easily lead to an utterly unnecessary and futile war...

...Yet there would appear to be certain things we could try, without dishonor and without weakening our position in the event that war should prove unavoidable...

...What does Russia want and what do we want...

...This sort of confused thinking on the part of American leadership tends to confuse and divide the American people...

...and that, in such event, the UN Commission be empowered to mediate as well as to report any violation of the nonintervention agreement...

...The question is not whether first to rearm and then to give free men a cause for which to fight, or whether first to create the will to resist and then to provide the weapons...

...Yet, if we must fight even a limited war with China, Japan is an all-important base...

...Four—We could declare that our objective in Japan remains the creation of a peaceful, democratic, and independent nation, and that we should welcome China's participation in the negotiation of a peace treaty which would ensure that result...

...Common sense repudiates any such assumption...

...It is possible that the chief reason for our Government's firm adherence to present policy is the fear that we, the American people, would repudiate any other course as "appeasement...

...But to declare now that, once peace is assured, there should be equal access for all peoples to sources of raw material, as we once promised in the now forgotten Atlantic Charter, might be the part of wisdom...

...But, according to this interpretation, Soviet military power is not the intended means of conquest...

...We could propose that a UN Commission, composed of "neutrals," such as India, Lebanon, and Switzerland, should supervise this withdrawal and the subsequent free election...

...It is by no means certain that such a way exists...

...This means that the coalition must know how it proposes to free mankind from the recurring scourge of war, and how it proposes to conduct an effective crusade against hunger, poverty, disease, and ignorance...

...If our Government believes that war is not inevitable—that "there is no conflict of legitimate interests that cannot be settled by peaceful means" —then it should bend every effort to effect that settlement, or at least work towards it, while it is rearming...

...Our own position is far less clear...

...This would be nothing more than a reaffirmation of our previous declaration to this effect...

...He wants a friendly and preferably Communist government in Korea...

...therefore we can only denounce the Russians for having obstructed unification in the past...

...The men in Washington possess no vital facts which are not known to us—no wisdom greater than that of the people whom they represent and serve...

...That is their job...

...and that, if the present Government of China should then wish to assume the obligations for the maintenance of peace embodied in the UN Charter, we should feel under no further obligation to oppose the legitimacy of its claim to membership...

...In 1933 he was financial adviser to the U. S. delegation at the World Economic Conference in London...

...therefore we can only denounce the Russians for having already partly remilitarized the East Germans...

...American leadership has been confused and stubborn partly because it has lost touch with the American people—because it has cut itself off from the healthy courage and common sense of the American people...

...We cannot discuss the uniting of the two Germanys and a peace treaty, because we intend to incorporate half of Germany in a Western defense bloc...

...We think of the futile and dishonorable concessions made to the aggressive Axis dictators, culminating in the betrayal of Czechoslovakia and the disgraceful "Peace" of Munich...

...Second, we must realize that the kind of power we need to muster— and which Russia fears—is primarily political power backed by military force-in-being...

...Subsequently he served as deputy director of OWI Overseas, a special correspondent in Europe, and as a U. S. delegate to the Far East Conference of the Institute of Pacific Relations...

...She wants, if possible, to keep Malaya and Hong Kong, which she knows she can do only if war with China is avoided...

...It is now or never...

...That, however, is no reason for us not to let the Russians know now what they may expect in the way of attaining their "legitimate" requirements in a peaceful world...

...This raises the question: When, or in what circumstances, shall we consider that peace is assured...

...We have agreed that Formosa shall be returned to China under the Japanese peace treaty...

...The people of America must speak up...

...But even that is not enough...

...Perhaps I am guilty of wishful thinking...

...The use of this term sets up a chain reaction...

...Here are a few guesses...

...No doubt it will take a number of years before disarmament will become a practical possibility...

...Certainly not, in the sense which that term has now acquired...

...Would the abandonment of German rearmament in favor of concentrating on the rearmament of France and the Low Countries constitute "appeasement...

...What do our friends and we want in Asia...

...By a further process of association, any attempt to deal with a belligerent demand through a process of negotiation, leading toward the elimination of threats and a reasonable discussion of the demand on its merits, has become "appeasement" and is, therefore, stupid and dishonorable...

...To i say this is to assume that Stalin and Mao Tse-tung, who are presumed to understand no language other than that of force, will refrain from a resort to force until we are as well armed as they...

...Not tanks or tractors, but tanks and tractors...

...Russia hoped that the postwar settlement would result in a demilitarized German nation, friendly to the Soviet Union and, if possible, organized along the lines of a "pe** pies' democracy...

...We just do not know because we have not tried...

...They are confused as to the means of attaining peace by a strangely confused yet cocksure leadership...

...Only we, the people, can shake our Government loose from the shackles of past mistakes and present misconceptions...

...Neither cares much what sort of government emerges in Korea, so long as it emerges through peaceful processes...

...Let us glance briefly at some of the problems which beset us in Europe and Asia...

...II In order to exhaust the possibilities of a peaceful settlement, we must, first of all, drop the absurd notion that we should not negotiate until we have attained military equality or preponderance...

...We shall never know the ultimate answer, unless we let Russia know what peaceful cooperation might mean in terms of her own "legitimate" interests...

...He is the author of many books and pamphlets, including "The Money Muddle," "Hell Bent for Election," "Peace in Our Time," and "Faith, Purpose, and Power...

...There are other parts of the world where the "legitimate interests of the Soviet Union and those of the free world" are possibly reconcilable by negotiation...

...Our present rearmament program prevents us from pursuing our own avowed aims with regard to a German settlement, which Russia is now at long last ready to discuss...

...We find ourselves fighting today in Korea not merely against unprovoked military aggression but against the Asian revolution...

...We are right to rearm, if we recognize that the strength we seek to build is every bit as much economic, psychological, and moral as military...

...One of the major elements of confusion in our present thinking arises from an emotional disturbance centering about the word, "appeasement...

...This does not rule out the use of satellite military power to pin down or weaken the anti-Soviet coalition...

...The American people are united in their desire for peace and in their willingness to sacrifice for its attainment...

...If, on the other hand, our Government believes that the question is not one of reconciling "legitimate interests" and that the two Communist dictators will be satisfied with nothing less than world conquest— then why on earth should it assume that the dictators will put off their adventure until Western Europe and the Middle East have been placed in a condition of alert defense...

...It is not only the memory of their King Canute which makes the British see more clearly than we do that our present course leads to disaster...

...The West hoped for the emergence of a peaceful, demilitarized, decentralized Germany, friendly to the West, and organized on the principles of Western democracy...

...We have not tried, because we rule out, as dishonor' able and stupid "appeasement," any attempt to pacify by considering on their merits demands put forward at the point of a gun...

...We are accustomed to think of ourselves as helpless little individuals—as powerless pawns in a game we cannot hope to understand...

...Russia was promised a revision of the Montreux Convention (which placed the control of the Straits in the hands of Turkey) as long ago as World War I. Granted that it would be foolish to let Russia control and fortify the Straits, as she now demands, might it not be wise to declare that, once peace is assured, not only the Dardanelles but all international waterways, including* the Panama Canal, will be open to all nations...

...But, Formosa, too, would be an important base in a war with China...

...It has not sought the advice of the people, nor taken them fully into its confidence...

...We do know that, unless Russia can be made to see greater advantage in peaceful cooperation under law than in world conquest, war is inevitable...

...Neither Britain nor France wishes to support Chiang Kai-shek...

...Both are now demanded...

...Both must be done—and done fast...

...Yet our European cold-war alliances have now drawn us into a commitment to help France retain Indo-China, and would no doubt cause us to help Britain in holding Malaya if not her undefendable colony in Hong Kong...

...My country, right or wrong" may be a fine slogan for war...

...There will be no real strength in the anti-Soviet coalition, unless that coalition makes clear an affirmative purpose commanding the allegiance of the masses of mankind...

...And now for a brief look at Asia...

...At the same time we should be removing the most likely provocation of the attack we seek to prevent, and reopening the door to a peaceful settlement...

...Warburg's condensed adaptation of his significant new pamphlet, "Speak Up—Now or Never...

...Three—We could declare that, once a peaceful settlement had been reached in Korea, we see no reason to interfere in the internal affairs of China, our wartime obligations to the former Nationalist Government having been fully discharged...

...The first is a thorough re-examination of our own aims and irreducible requirements...

...Thus we became identified with the defeat of a crumbling and corrupt government, which had lost the allegiance of its people, and thus we incurred the enmity of that government which, no matter how little we like it, is now the Government of China...

...They, too, have homes and families...

...One example will suffice...

...What does each want, and why do they find it profitable to act in concert...

...We cannot hope to find a peaceful solution to the rapidly mounting world crisis, unless we persuade our Government to create the two preconditions to successful negotiation...

...The second is a willingness to understand the aims and irreducible needs of the other side...

...Although we have no possessions in Asia, we are more deeply involved than France or Britain, because we carried the major burden of World War II in the Pacific and have assumed the major responsibility for a peace settlement...

...It obscures the important truth that there are circumstances in which an attempt to pacify may be wholly honorable...

...To refuse to negotiate until we have achieved equality or preponderance of military power is to accept war as inevitable...

...less they are healed, we shall find ourselves confronting the greatest peril in our history without friends and with our own power paralyzed by indecision...

...For years we urged Britain to free India before Britain was ready to do so...

...Not until six months afrer the invasion of Korea did our Government seriously attempt to create : power commensurate with these ; commitments...

...But let's tell them also that, before we again go in for the dirty business of war, we want to use our heads to find out whether the world is really so bankrupt that an atomic fight for survival is necessary...

...Russia's interest in the Dardanelles is no different from what our interest would be in the Virginia Capes, if Chesapeake Bay constituted our only outlet to the Atlantic Ocean and if the Virginia Capes happened to belong to Mexico...

...They sense that, unless a way can be found honorably to pacify Mao Tse-tung, in spite of his aggression, there will be no way to escape the Kremlin trap...

...Since they would not go into effect while there is still a serious danger of war, they would not adversely affect the security of the anti-Soviet coalition in the event of war...

...Mao Tse-tung wants worldwide recognition that his government is now the legitimate Government of China, and the assurance that we will refrain from any intervention in China's internal affairs...

...It follows from this hypothesis that Russia's own military power will be used only when and if the Kremlin reaches the conclusion that its pressures have gone so far as to provoke the likelihood of attack upon Russia by a rearmed anti-Soviet coalition...

...The tragic fact remains that, if we persist in ruling out any and all attempts to pacify and negotiate— if we continue our refusal to consider on their merits demands put forward in an obnoxious manner— we shall make a mistake more fateful and more costly than Munich...

...This is the real cold war technique we are up against...

...Let's tell them we are not afraid to use our fists, if it comes to another fight for survival...

...This is not the same thing as mere military power...

...Most troublesome of all, we have carried our wartime alliance with Chiang over into the "peace," because the cold-war policy made anyone our friend who would fight Communism...

...These "concessions" are condi-tional concessions, to be granted only "once peace is assured...

...The answer is: When universal national disarmament becomes a practical possibility, and when the Soviet bloc and the anti-Soviet coalition begin to demonstrate their intention to make universal disarmament a reality...

...But, in doing so, we should be making a concession demanded in the first instance by our own vital self-interest in the defense of Western Europe...

...It follows that we are right to rearm and to help our friends rearm, provided that our purpose is to create a powerful force-in-being with which to back a political offensive...

...The fifty billion dollars a year we now propose to spend on rearmament will be wasted—may well, in fact, serve in part to equip the enemy—unless the will to resist is created in the minds of those men who are expected to use the weapons we are about to produce...

...Hence, "appeasement"—which the dictionary defines as "pacification, often through satisfaction" —has come to mean "a futile and shameful attempt to satisfy unjust and never-ending demands put forward at the point of a gun...

...They destroy not only the confidence of our friends but our own confidence and our own unity...

...Two—We could declare that, once a peaceful settlement had been reached in Korea, we would have no further interest in Formosa and would withdraw our fleet from For-mosan waters...

...On the other hand, no matter how small the remaining chance of a peaceful settlement, what have we to lose by exploring it...

...France wants to avoid seeing us trapped in Asia, but also wants our help in fighting to retain Indo-China...

...We cannot renew our pledge against remilitarization because we intend to remilitarize the Western Germans...

...The alternative to wise and honorable pacification is a war in which all honor, all freedom, and all human decency will be destroyed...

...Our avowed purpose in Japan, as in Germany, is to create a peaceful, democratic, and demilitarized nation...

...It makes war—which is the ultimate stupidity—seem less stupid than the honorable avoidance of war through pacification and patient negotiation...

...We have turned loose the Philippines and helped Indonesia gain independence...

...But neither is it possible to maintain the contrary...

...These cleavages in public opinion minimize the remaining chances of achieving a peaceful settlement, while at the same time weakening our defenses in the event of war...

...Our present policy is to refuse any negotiations until we can get ourselves a bigger gun than that which is now brandished in our faces...

...So far, there have been few signs that our Government intends to pursue anything other than its present course of action...

...If this means another ten billion dollars a year to create tolerable living conditions for the peoples we propose to rearm, then that is a part of the burden we must shoulder...

...The article in this issue is Mr...

...They face precisely the same questions we must face—except that they must reach decisions for us on the basis of what they think we think...

...in our present predicament it is the worst possible formula for peace...

...If so, the dreams and aspirations of all humanity are doomed to submersion in another orgy of mass murder and destruction...

...UnJAMES P. WARBURG, Jong a prominent American banker, has dedicated much of his gifts and energy in recent years to peaceful, democratic solutions to world conflicts...

...By making them, we should not weaken our position in the event of war, yet we should greatly enhance the chances of escaping from the Kremlin's trap...

...We should, it is true, be making a move which might* pacify Russia by removing her major anxiety in Europe...

...III In order to discover whether there is any honorable and prudent alternative to a third world war, we must be willing not only to examine objectively the demands of Stalin and Mao Tse-tung—we must also be willing to re-examine our own requirements and the requirements of our friends...

...Neither cares whether he holds or loses Formosa...

...This is not the only problem in Europe, but it is the key log in the log-jam...

...One—Instead of insisting that China withdraw her troops from Korea, while the UN forces remain, we might propose the withdrawal of all non-Korean troops and all foreign missions, leaving the people of Korea to hold a national election free from all outside influence...

...Let's tell them what we think— by writing and wiring them—Congress and the President—urging a policy of negotiating now...

...For example—when the Atlantic treaty was proposed, the people and the Congress were told that in no circumstances short of war would substantial American forces be sent to Europe, and that in no circum; stances whatever would the United States consider German rearma: ment...

...Instead of being able to explore whether the apparent Russian change of attitude is real, or a prop-aganda bluff, we find ourselves compelled to denounce the whole proposal as insincere, because a sincere offer would actually be an embarrassment...

...Eventually, he would probably like to see Britain and France deprived of their last colonial footholds in Asia...

...Let us assume that Stalin and Mao Tse-tung are, for the moment, acting together...

...Eventually, he wants "Asia for the Asians," including a Japan free from Western domination...

...Moreover, the failure of an improvised and little understood containment policy creates an even more dangerous fragmentation of American opinion, as between "America - firsters," "Europe - first-ers," and "Asia-firsters...

...Stalin wants to pin down as much Western military power as he can in Asia, in order to have Europe and the Middle East defenseless...

...Britain wants to be sure that we do not get trapped into an Asia-first strategy which would leave Europe and the Middle East defenseless...

...Russia's interest in the vast oil resources of Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia is no less "legitimate" than that of Britain, France, Holland, and the United States...

...IV These are only examples of what we might do in the most critical areas of the cold war—Germany and the Far East...

...The fact is that we do not know what Russia would do, if her "legitimate" anxieties were put to rest and her "legitimate" interests safeguarded...

...The maintenance of tremendous military force-in-being is an essential part of this design, serving to intimidate intended victims and to render them ripe for accelerated political subversion or penetration...

...Thus American leadership has : taken the American people into a tangle of unforeseen commitments far exceeding American power to fulfill...

...But we are not powerless...