THE FIFTH CAMPAIGN
Simonds, Frank H.
The Fifth Campaign Noted War Expert Thinks the End of the Year Will See War Still in Progress. Writes His Conclusions in Extended Article in Review of Reviews Frank H. Simonds is one of the...
...But before this time Germany will have approximately a year in which her foes will lack tho numbers to crush her, and she will have the numbers needed to conduct one or several great attacks^ If she does not conduct these attacks this year, if she accepts the defensive, then she will still be outnumbered in 1919 and condemned to the defensive then, for her reserves are below a million and by no means first class...
...We publish the Tribune editorial referred to In full: THE CONDITIONS OF PEACE (From Chicago Tribune) WHETHER PEACE is at hand or some years off, it is clear that a study of the complex relations of what Mr...
...The horrible mess made will in due time bring the country around to a saner view of the whole situation...
...There was announced some time ago that Col...
...At the same time in Russia, in Italy, in France and even in Britain, there has been a growth of radical and anarchistic sentiment...
...What is our government doing about it...
...The defection of Russia has released many troops and it has involved Rumania which will be compelled to make peace on German terms...
...War Weariness NOW IT IS WELL to face things as they are...
...Six months ago the mass of the German people desired peace because they did not believe absolute victory was possible...
...In no case could we fight in Europe on a large scale with an American Army before the summer of 1919, a year and a half hence...
...In all the Nations that have been fighting since the beginning of the war, there has developed war weariness and a certain measure of pessimism...
...This country, howe»er, must remain the one great reservoir ot supplies for the Allies...
...A very great wave of pessimism was noted in Germany last summer, before Russia collapsed...
...Sa-lonica, Bagdad and Venice may be prizes of her new efforts in the next six months...
...And we are new to it all, guiltless of knowledge or policy, tradition or perspective...
...We are already short of labor...
...they are the material with which Germany can build a new offensive campaign, and with their arrival the offensive on the West front has passed to Germany...
...Abroad German inT fiuence and German agents are stimulating every faction and every group which seeks to break down national unity and strength, ostensibly in the name of human freedom, actually, whatever the motive, to the profit of the Germans...
...He has had interviews on the war with the leading statesmen and military leaders of Europe...
...We are in contact or shall be when peace terms arc in discussion, with a complicated interplay of interests, forces and ambitions...
...All of this the Germans know...
...The Germans, on the other hand cannot afford to wait...
...When Russia deserted there was an end of all hope of a decision in 1917 or in 191S...
...Lansing somewhat gingerly calls our co-belligerents and of our enemies is highly advisable...
...But these tirades of hate serve only to repel and disgust.—Collier's, Jan...
...One is tempted to suspect the good faith of such declarations, for Germany has not in the past used the brass band method to advertise her strategy in advance of putting it into operation...
...Intimate experience with poison gas, whiz-bangs, machine-gun bullets, wire entanglements, and mud naturally develops an impatience with all save practical discussion of ho'w to beat the German la the field...
...But the problem Is only military In a minor de* gree...
...There is not the slightest reason to believe that on the West front Britain and France will not be able to match man against man and gun against gun with Germany and Austria during the campaign that is now to begin, and they should be able to do this without relying upon the American troops, which are slowly but surely increasing in numbers and will be able to hold portions of the line next summer, although they will not be fit for any such ambitious effort as the new British armies made at the Somme last year and before the Arras this spring...
...And the German press and the German critics are all agreed that such an offensive is now to take place...
...But they had Napoleon...
...He was an eye witness at the battle of Verdun, under permission of the President of France...
...Russia is out of the war...
...Nevertheless, constitutional responsibilities cannot be evaded even with the best motives, and as we travel towards peace, whether it be near or far, we approach the moment when congress, if it is to dp its duty will be required to exercise judgment and have as great need for the material to form it upon as the chief executive...
...We should put more pressure behind our aviation program, both building and training...
...And this, I believe, is the sum of what we have to fear for the campaign of 191S...
...the real test must come among the people of France, of Italy and of Britain, for it is against the will and determination of the people behind the fronts that the Germans are going to strike, primarily...
...They cannot hope, by pursuing a war of attrition next summer to exhaust German numbers, while theirs still remain sufficiently great to bid for a decision...
...Were the Allies confronted by the same necessities as the Germans, they might risk all upon a desperate offensive, but they have not the same necessities...
...Incidentally we have been interested in comparing the effect on the average American of our acquaintance of such manifestoes as this of our gen-<*le philosopher with the effect produced, for instance, by a book like "Young Franc© and New America," by Pierre De Lanux...
...But for a year she can stake all, her last mark and her last man on seeking to break the will of her opponents and persuade them to quit while she still has a reserve...
...Recognizing how dangerous it is to forecast, and with a full appreciation of the limitations which are common to all critics, I am going to attefnpt to set forth here the situation as I now see it...
...But it is clear to all, that if none of those three nations collapse, during the next campaign, then German ruin is assured, and the outcome of the war can no longer be hidden from the Ger...
...We have made only one fundamental mistake at Washington...
...BT FRANK II...
...No one of these successes would win the war or change the actual situation, but each would contribute much to creating just the atmosphere in Britain, France and Italy, which Germany desires to create...
...And France of the Revolution was unprepared for war...
...that they can succeed against the French, when they failed at the Marne and at Verdun, with the odds overwhelmingly with them, seems unbelievable...
...Plan of Germany t T IS THE PRESENT BELIEF of the Germans 1 that by renewing their assaults on the battlefield, by employing their new reserve of men and guns drawn from the Russian front, they can create the conviction among the Allied publics that Germany is invincible and that this belief will contribute mightily to promote war weariness and domestic disorder in Italy, France and even in Britain, and that this disorder, this war weariness, will frighten the leaders of the Allied nations into yielding to German terms, even if it does not produce conditions which will enable the Germans to repeat in France or in Italy the recent achieve-me: s in Russia...
...Russia and Rumania together, by making separate peace, will release something like a million and a half German, Austrian, and Bulgarian troops, all of which save the Bulgarians can be used upon the Western and Italian fronts or behind the German and Austrian lines to improve communications and speed up industry...
...America enlisted, but not until next year can America fill Russia's place, and upon the arrival of this final reserve the Allies must wait...
...Germany has now to spend her last reserves, acquired through Russian collapse, in seeking a decision as Napoleon put his Guard in at Waterloo, hoping to smash the British before the Prussians could get up in sufficient numbers...
...Not even the army which Napoleon led to Austerlitz had such an advantage in numbers and preparations over the Russian and Austrian armies as the German armies possessed over their British and French foes three years ago, when they set out for Paris...
...We recognize now, as we did not three years ago, how stupendous is the task of defeating a people in arms and prepared for war...
...At least we ought to acquire a considerable fund ot political, commercial and economic information to give us a footing for sane judgment...
...Grave mistakes have been made, are being made, and will be ma'de...
...I would drive every unnaturalized German from this country...
...They have been fighting more than three years, and have trained large bodies of men...
...Russia herself has collapsed under the strain of domestic disorder, Italy has been brought to the edge of ruin and France has known certain disquieting moments...
...It is hardly consistent with the American system of government or with our oft asserted claims ot advanced democracy that the executive should be left to act in isolated authority upon questions,-the determination of which will affect the republic's future and, perhaps, the interrelations of the great powers for generations...
...they were equally convinced that they could not be decisively beaten...
...We should speed up the Navy, both Its construction and its personnel...
...We must then face the probability of a five year's war, at the shortest, looking at the military considerations...
...A weighty commission for the study of the problems involved in the war, and especially ot those phases directly affecting our own interests, should be created and set to work without more delay...
...Decisive victory last year was only remotely possible even if Russia had stayed in the battle line and contributed her share...
...When the president asked for authority to arm merchant-ships without declaration of war by Congress, Senator La Follette opposed such delegation of authority because the Constitution expressly gives that power to Congress...
...Unless all signs fail, the end of the year will see the war still in progress...
...We should indeed train great numbers of men, but withdraw them as little as possible from agriculture and industry...
...man people...
...France, In the Revolution and under Napoleon, defied Europe for more than twenty years...
...SIMONDS LIKE 1917, the New Year opens in the midst of discouragement and depression for the Allies, in whose number we are now reckoned...
...Thus the world was led to expect a speedy solution of the great problem raised by the World War...
...Accordingly I look for German attacks on the west front, in the Balkans and in Mesopotamia, where she is now free to use all Turkish troops released from the Russian front in Armenia...
...and there is every prospect that it will see Germany able to make headway against her enemies and in possession of Allied territory on the Western front...
...House had been assigned to organize an investigation of this sort, and several men were named as his aids...
...By we is meant, of course, our government, upon which we must rely for a wise exercise of what influence we possess or, after performance acquire...
...Without derogating from the authority or the ability of the president, it is well for them to realize that the constitution invests them with duties and responsibilities respecting our foreign relations which they cannot shirk...
...With all respects to Mr...
...As for the Allies, they have to parry this blow as they parried two similar blows, the one at the Marne, the other at Verdun...
...Even another Verdun, which did not win a victory in the field, might, in the German view, bring a war weary France to the point of making a separate peace, and if France made a separate peace, Germany would escape defeat in the west as she has in the east and, in a measure at least, win the war...
...Since there will be no reinforcement of the British and the French until the American army is ready for action, and since the American army cannot be ready in great numbers before the campaign of 1919, although some thousands may be in (the firing line before Spring, there is, then, no reason to expect a decision this year as the result of Allied military achievement in the field, and there is every reason to expect that Allied effort may be restricted more severely to the defensive than in any previous campaign of the whole war...
...5, 1918...
...We have recently seen the consequences of similar depression in Italy...
...Britain, France, and Italy have at least as many troops under arms as Germany and Austria now possess...
...Wilson's or Col...
...There would have been an end of all hope of Allied victory even had no new nation arrived to replace Russia...
...Only in our own Civil War was the outcome long doubtful and the struggle protracted in a way to suggest comparison with the present contest...
...House's personal friends, or of men of little note or mediocre ability...
...a Hate Talk ^ WILL NEVER AGAIN use an article mad« I in modern Germany...
...If next New Year's Germany faces the world in arms against her without any strategic reserve, with a million fresh American troops, by this time fully equipped, trained, and prepared to join in the attack, her doom will be sealed...
...that mistake has been to conceive of this world war as meaning for the United States chiefly armies, and still more armies...
...Unless this is done the fateful terms upon which peace is to be made and, as we hope, maintained, must be left entirely to one man, aided, perhaps, by some agents unknown to the public and moving dimly In the background...
...Wilson's gifts, it seems to us that it...
...We should bring the merchant ship-building pro-granl to large results at a speedier rate than the present...
...Congress Should Exercise Power LA FOLLETTE'S has always strongly advocated that Congress should not shirk its constitutional duties in the present war...
...Much of this domestic disorder in enemy countries has had its origin in German intrigues...
...Wilson at times has seemed to overlook this and the committees have accepted their obscuration with a complacency which, we have no doubt, is the modest flower of their patriotism...
...Yet, looking backward in history to similar struggles of other countries, there is written much of more than passing contemporary value...
...For the first time during the present war a year begins with no legitimate reason for expecting victory, decisive victory, during its course...
...Taken together with some major German offensive against the British or the French on the west front, they might do the trick and bring Europe to a peace by negotiation within the next twelve months and before the United States can become an effective factor on land...
...The situation seems to us unsatisfactory and even dangerous...
...He is familiar with and has detailed information on military tactics and his judgment on war events has always received due consideration by those who arc in a position to have knowledge of the real facts—The Editoi-'s Note...
...That their armies can do this, the past would seem to prove unmistakably, for the Germans will have no such advantage in 1918 as they had in 1914 and 1916...
...is the duty of Congress to share with him the burden of determining our international policy and directing our international influence at this critical stage ot our history...
...neither the Dunajec nor Verdun was preceded by press agents...
...I favor the exclusion of the German language and literature from our schools and colleges...
...Likewise the Constitution gives Congress the power to determine the objects and purposes of war and the power to conclude war by refusal to continue war...
...In a word, a state of balance has been reached on the West front...
...We are travelling in a maze set with diplomatic pitfalls...
...Meantime the Russian collapse has released some hundreds of thousands of German ariVl Austrian troops, a \ considerable portion of whom were compelled to remain on the Eastern front until Russia was definitely out of the war...
...the Allies have no right or reason to hope that any changes at all that are conceivable in Russia will help them or bring back to them any Russian aid...
...German victory before America arrives may be possible, it may prove impossible, but it is the one clear chance of realization of German war aims, and victory after America gets up is unthinkable...
...In the first place it seems to me utterly unlikely that there can be any decision on the military side this year...
...Even if at this time its functions are merely those of investigation, we have a right to demand that its members be specialists of standing in their respective fields of Inquiry...
...It is true that Mr...
...We cannot afford to go into any peace discussion with nothing more substantial than noble intentions or highly academic designs for a perfect world...
...But the, president has refused Congress, obstinately any part in the war save the declaration of war which was forced, and the voting of appropriations...
...Yet there remains the solid fact that Germany has the resources for an offensive, and there is obviously sound reason why she should now seek by an offensive to get a decision before the American army is ready, as she sought to get a decision at Verdun before the British were ready...
...As Wellington waited for the Prussians at Waterloo, the new Allies can afford to wait for America in this war...
...The government of Great Britain, in spite or her superior knowledge and the ripe wisdom won from the longest experience in the shaping of difficult international relations of any existing powers, is said to have had a large corps at work in this field for mouths...
...Chief Part is Not Armies THIS PERIODICAL, which is endeavoring to support the Government in its war measures with cordial good-will, has month by mouth tried to show that the people of the United States could not possibly do everything that was (expected of them, simultaneously...
...It is significant that a great paper like the Chicago Tribune, which has heretofore been most insistent on Congress being merely a rubber stamp for the president, regaining its equilibrium, and now advising Congress to resume its constitutional functions...
...quite as intense depression followed the failure of the French offensive last Spring and French morale was temporarily at a low ebb...
...Waterloo, Sadowa, Sedan, Lule Burgas, and the Bregalnitza, each within a few weeks of a declaration of war proclaimed the outcome of the contest...
...For the methods of carrying on the war, the determination of the objects and purposes of war, the method of...
...On the Allied side the situation is equally plain...
...One or all of them may go down as Russia has, although nothing seems less likely or more preposterous...
...Thus at one timo Germany has obtained the men for a new offensive and her people have acquired a confidence and an expectation of success which will lead them to make additional sacrifices and endure fresh burdens...
...In a sense the lack of great optimism at tho opening of the fifth campaign of the World War— and the Civil War was decided early in the fifth campaign—is due to a growing appreciation of what modern war really means...
...They have a new ally coming up all the time, a new ally who can be depended upon to supply a million men in 1919 and, in the meantime to give ever increasing aid on the sea and in the furnishing of food and munitions...
...it is slowly but surely being mastered and a year hence the situation is likely to be better for the Allies in the matter of shipping than now...
...and it was certain that wo must either fail to meet expectations in the matter of shii>-building, food production and the makiug of war supplies, or else that we must fall short in the rapid creation of armies to bo dispatched and maintained in Europe...
...Writes His Conclusions in Extended Article in Review of Reviews Frank H. Simonds is one of the best knoion of the war correspondents...
...His vivid war editorials in the Xcw York papers have attracted wide attention...
...They leave that to journalists, philosophers, and preachers, and, wo suspect, rather despise it...
...If such a commission exists, the public, and especially congress, ought at least to know who they are and what, in a general way, they are doing, We suggest that tho senate and house committees on foreign relations take this whole subject under consideration...
...From the first abdication of Napoleon to the coming of the present European conflict, all European wars of importance had speedy decisions...
...House is taking in our public affairs, since-it is Mr...
...That the Germans can succeed now agaiust the British where they failed in the first battle of Ypres, with everything in their favor...
...But a commission to provide a basis of informed action at the world congress of peace ought not to be made up merely of Mr...
...raising and equipping armies he alone is responsible because he has refused Congress any part therein...
...This is not a one man government and it is a fearful responsibility for a president to take the sole responsibility for war and the method of carrying it on and the conclusion of war...
...The young Frenchman's conviction that our victory will bring forth a common understanding of all nations for international peace—his enthusiasm, his intelligence—strengthen the faith and renew tho determination of even those who were skeptical and reluctant when we declared Avar last spring...
...In the second place the collapse of Russia and the surrender of Rumania, due to Russian desertion, have wholly changed the German temppr...
...as to victory won by economic weapons in a shorter time, this remains always possible and never likely...
...Wilson is inclined to isolate himself as no other chief executive has done, but unless we are ready to accept an autocracy not the less complete for being well intentioned and, in great measure permissive, our representatives in congress must provide in some measure the requisites of informed criticism and decision...
...We should make the agricultural output of the coming year, 1918, by far the greatest in our history...
...I wilt never look into •*¦ a modern German book...
...But they are condemned to try, because they are in no temper to admit defeat, and have still the resources for a new bid.— Review of Reviews, January, 1918...
...But now, with Russia and Rumania out, with Italy terribly beaten recently, the German people have gained a new confidence, and at the same time the extreme militaristic and autocratic elements have gained absolute control...
...Since then the redoubtable Col...
...Looking Forward IT SEEMS TO ME that it is the part of wisdom for the Allies to make clear to their publics in advance of the next campaign what its course promises to be, for in doing this they will abolish vain hopes and avoid the consequences of disappointments, which seem to me bound to follow too great optimism now...
...Number of Men Engaged BUT THE ALLIES have no considerable advantage in numbers...
...At home the Gorman autocracy is stifling every liberal thought and every expression of the moderates...
...House has been busily engaged in other missions of importance, and we hear of hlra moving actively, if on rubber heels, among the war machinery at Washington, Obviously, he can be giving little time or thought to his commission of investigation...
...We observe that men who havo actually been in the trenches scarcely ever waste breath on hate talk...
...Now just as no man at this time last year could have forecast a Russian collapse, no man can today foresee what will happen to France, Italy or Britain...
...We need not quarrel with the astonishing and unprecedented role Col...
...Her conscript armies began their campaigns in rags and ended them quartered in the palaces of every European capital...
...They *ere mado the other day by an eminent American naturalist and philosopher who probably thinks them a valuable contribution to our patriotic endeavor...
...Since Russia is out and negotiating a separate peace, these troops will not constitute a strategic reserve...
...Why Straggle Is Protracted WITH THE WARS of Napoleon or of Louis XIV in mind, it is easier to understand the protraction of the present struggle and to realize that the decision may yet be postponed for years...
...The submarine campaign no longer promises victory...
...Farming at the present stage is a much more important contribution toward winning the war than the dispatch of men to tho army cantonments under the draft, or the sending of infantry regiments to Europe.—Review of Reviews, January, 1918...
...For the first timo since Verdun, Germany has the means both as to men and guns to risk another great offensive...
...Wilson's privilege to avail himself of a tried personal friend to serve as a medium of information or as a special personal emissary...
...These remarks are not those ot a soldier just back from the first-line trench...
Vol. 10 • January 1918 • No. 1
