Beyond Tony Blair

...As he told the recent annual Labor Party conference, a once stop-andgo economy is now stable...

...He had been advised by his supporters that Blair had more support because some Labor parliamentarians were put off by Brown's hectoring manner, intimations of intellectual superiority and brusqueness...

...Both badly wanted to become prime minister and had nurtured a coterie of dedicated supporters in Parliament and in the party organization...

...The son of a Church of Scotland clergyman, Gordon was imbued from boyhood with a strong sense of social responsibility and of respect for learning...

...His path to the prime ministership still seems clear...

...Brown was born in 1951 in the town of Kirkcaldy, where Adam Smith, the 18th-century philosopher of free enterprise economics, was born...

...Brown these days surpasses Blair...

...By then Blair and Brown had each been mentioned in London newspapers as a likely future leader of the party and the country...

...Internal policy feuds, once kept secret, are now being leaked to the press as some ministers stake out new ground for themselves in anticipation of the change at the top...

...Upon assuming the leadership, Blair agreed that when the party attained power, his obliging rival would have untrammeled control of Britain's economic policies...

...After examining the possibilities, Brown stepped aside...

...At the moment he maintains closer contact with Democratic Party figures than does Blair, who has become a good friend of President George W. Bush...

...James Gordon Brown is one of many Scotsmen who have distinguished themselves in politics, business and the professions in England...

...Like several other Laborites and Labor-leaning intellectuals at the London School of Economics, they accepted that many long cherished Socialist principles and programs had to be abandoned—including the nationalization of major industries and the party's close ties to the unions...

...a formerly smug, unimaginative British business and industrial culture has become more enterprising and flexible...

...While attending the University of Edinburgh in the often turbulent 1960s, he was drawn into the rough and tumble of student and local politics...

...But at Labor's September party conference Brown's demeanor and his speech unmistakably implied criticism of the prime minister's slow-paced leadership...

...As the man in charge of British economic policy, Brown has proved himself imaginative and innovative...

...National elections here must take place within five years of the previous balloting, with the prime minister empowered to set the date earlier...

...His focusing on economic matters has spared him from becoming embroiled in the government's unpopular involvement with the Iraq war...

...Open conflict has not yet erupted between Blair and Brown...

...Not given to modesty, Brown maintains that through his guidance, Britain can aspire to become one of the great success stories of the new global economy...

...On controversial domestic issues—health and education, for example—their positions are only marginally different...

...The two realized that an angry, divisive contest would be selfdefeating...

...But such considerations do not impress Brown and his growing band of restive Labor partisans...

...More seriously, on November 9,49 Labor members of Parliament broke ranks to block an antiterrorism law he fervently sought, handing him his first such defeat...

...He has made it plain he believes he still has much to do in the way of reforming public services...

...They have made an effective team, but some recent developments spell trouble for Brown...

...Norman Gelb reports regularly for The New Leader on British affairs...

...Together "the twins" thus helped lay groundwork for a "New Labor" capable of winning over the electorate...

...In fact, his delay in leaving office appears in part to reflect a desire to ensure his being seen as a great statesman in the eyes of history...

...The two youngish rising stars were determined to refashion Labor into Britain's natural party of government...

...The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has issued a discouraging assessment of current economic conditions here...

...3. Few doubt that Brown is Blair's most credible successor...

...Each is shadowed by a long-serving heir...

...When Labor leader John Smith suddenly died of a heart attack in 1994 the leadership was up for grabs...

...While calling Brown's past performance a "paragon of stability," the OECD forecast that Britain's economic growth this year will be disappointing...

...If we are to fully realize [our] economic potential," he insisted, "we need something more" than the country has been getting...

...Photographs from the period show him with long hair and looking disheveled, as was then fashionable...

...10 Downing Street once Labor became dominant—with Blair to go first and make way for Brown in a reasonable amount of time...

...So far Blair has shown no signs that proddings from Brown and others will prompt his early exit from Downing Street...

...Their success south of the border is often credited to Scotland's higher educational standards...

...A transitional stage in British politics has thus commenced, marked by a changing political climate in government circles...

...Though they did not fall out as friends, Blair and Brown became rivals...

...Differences persist on whether the two formally agreed over a decade ago to take turns occupying No...

...After paying his dues campaigning for senior Scottish politicians, and some failed electoral attempts of his own, he won a seat in the House of Commons in 1983...

...Back then both men had promising prospects...

...Brown was allocated space in a small office there that he would share with another newly elected Labor Party MP from Sedgefield, Anthony Charles Lynton Blair...

...But whether he will be able to capitalize on his achievements by the time Blair finally makes way for him is an open question...

...Tensions about Blair's tenure are building as well among his other Cabinet ministers, who trust he will step down prior to the end of his third mandate but are uneasy about not knowing at exactly what point he plans to do so...

...Indeed Blair recently gloated that if the Conservatives seek to move toward the middle, "they will find us already there...

...Yet whatever satisfaction he derives from those achievements—especially when the economies of France, Germany and Italy are deeply troubled—Brown has been noticeably exasperated with Blair of late for keeping him at bay...

...Although his mother is approaching 80, expectations that he will soon don the British crown are tempered by the fact that Elizabeth's mother lived to be 101 and the queen appears to be in good health, actively fulfilling her regal duties...

...It has been suggested that British taxes, relatively low by European standards, may have to rise to overcome the shortcomings...

...Chances are that Blair's presumptive heir, Gordon Brown, the British chancellor of the exchequer, will be elevated before Prince Charles...

...Both were appalled by the policies of ruling Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and the Conservative-controlled Parliament...

...Watching Bill Clinton restlessly roam the world, Blair at 52 may further wonder what there is for an ex-prime minister to do with the rest of his life...

...Queen Elizabeth and Prime Minister Tony Blair, share a dubious distinction...

...Shunning both the hard Left active at Edinburgh and the anti-American Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, he identified closely with Labor...

...Public opinion polls gradually began to tilt toward Labor, signaling a possible end to the long rule of the "Iron Lady," but the Conservatives kept coming out ahead at the polling booth...

...and a country previously plagued by high jobless rates now enjoys record employment...

...The report adds that, despite the implementation of needed reforms, public services have fallen short of targets and public expectations...

...That, of course, would not be popular...

...In addition, he indicated that he expects Blair to turn the reins over to him sooner rather than later...

...Following four successive defeats in national balloting, Labor leaders reluctantly concluded that despite strong trade union backing, their party was doomed to remain in futile opposition unless it could attract greater middle-class support...

...2. Even under its new young leader, David Cameron, the three-time losing opposition Conservative Party still has to convince the electorate it is ready to rule Britain...

...One of his latest campaigns is aimed at antisocial behavior—in response to an alarming increase in violent crimes by binge-drinking ruffians and weapon-toting youths...

...Here, he might have added, eight years in senior office is a virtual eternity...

...Blair won his third term in May 2005, so technically Brown could have to wait until 2010 to take his place, but many hope the changeover will occur earlier...

...For Brown, Blair's departure from the scene cannot come quickly enough...

...They spent much time privately and publicly discussing what the Labor Party should do to improve living standards once it came to power...

...In October, a highly publicized Cabinet dispute on a relatively minor issue—whether smoking should be banned in all pubs or only in those that serve food—exposed uncharacteristic lapses of discipline among the prime minister's chief lieutenants...

...The number of Britons working has risen steadily over the past few months, yet the number of jobless has beenrising too...

...Still closely linked politically and intellectually, Blair and Brown privately launched into a grueling examination of what might be done to make the Labor Party electable...

...The queen's heir apparent, Charles, Prince of Wales, is now 58 years old...

...That may guarantee Labor's retaining control, but it has not prevented the onset of Blair fatigue among party stalwarts and the general public...

...The affable, quick-witted, always smiling young barrister and the less polished, brainy, dour Scotsman got along so well from the start that they came to be known around the Commons as "the twins...

...The popularity of the long-ruling Conservative Party had eroded, and it seemed headed for a massive electoral defeat...

...Like the prime minister, Brown has firm links—personally and on policy objectives—to the United States, where he regularly vacations...

...After Blair's initial victory in 1997, he set about creating the modernized, dynamic New Labor in large part through his (currently somewhat tarnished) personal charisma...

...Brown and Blair agree on European integration policies, too, though the chancellor stresses that Europe must build better commercial relationships with the U.S...

...Neither needed to be pushed in that direction...

...They believe the prime minister has drifted too far to the Right in trying to thwart a Conservative bid to regain the middle ground...

...Recognized as future party leadership material, the two were shortly assigned roles as opposition spokesmen in the Commons and articulately denounced the Tory government's policies...

...The government, in their view, was insufficiently concerned with the well-being of the working classes and the poor...

...We must start thinking of the Britain that we can become...

...By contrast, Blair was easygoing and charmingly persuasive...

...Most often they go out of their way to praise each other's skills, sometimes excessively protesting mutual admiration...

...Brown's performance at the British Treasury also deserves much credit for that transformation...

...Fearing a messy handover if Blair holds out until the last legal moment, a number of key Cabinet ministers and Labor backbenchers in Parliament are reportedly urging him in private to retire by 2007...

...The late Prime Minister Harold Wilson observed that "a week is a long time in politics...

...Several upper-echelon Labor Party figures, including longstanding Blair loyalists, have preferred Brown for a while...

...Under his stewardship, Britain has arguably enjoyed its most sustained economic growth in two centuries...

...The chancellor knows the prime minister could remain in office his full third term, and even renege on the commitment not to run again...

...He began earning a living as a university lecturer and a researcher for Scottish television programs, but soon set his sights on becoming a member of Parliament...

...He is likely to succeed the prime minister in the not too distant future for three reasons: 1. Despite his remarkable stayingpower, Blair, having won three successive elections, has promised to leave office and the leadership of the Labor Party before the next election day...

...no other British politician approaches his record of accomplishment, his popularity or his organized backing...

...Blair also finds his increasingly prominent role in international affairs personally rewarding...