The Shevardnadze Paradox
GOODMAN, MELVIN A.
An Unreformed Reformer The Shevardnadze Paradox By Melvin A. Goodman Eduard A. Shevardnadze bowed to the inevitable when he resigned from the presidency of Georgia on November 23, 2003....
...He wanted to make the resolution of the German question part of an all-European process that would include the relationship of Eastern Europe to the European Community, the future of NATO and the Warsaw Pact, and military arrangements in Central Europe...
...Most Georgians detested him, but they shared the belief that he might be the only one who could unite the country and attract Washington's assistance...
...In his last days in office no one at home or abroad spoke up in his defense...
...Shevardnadze became an advocate for human rights even though his own hands were not clean...
...Armenia and Azerbaijan, often at war, are on the eastern border...
...Retreat from Eastern Europe, the most dramatic shift in Sovietpolicy since the end of World War II, had great implications for the East-West rivalry...
...The country is remarkably beautiful, but it is haunted by the memory of its cruel sons—Josef Stalin and Lavrenti P. Beria, the dictator's secret police chief—and a legacy of selfdestruction...
...In addition, he lobbied for intrusive verification in the 1986 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty and the 1989 Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty...
...His greatest support came from minorities—such as the Armenians and Azéris—not from ethnic Georgians...
...Still, these failures at home should not obscure his signal achievements abroad...
...But like Gorbachev, who came to the conclusion that the Soviet populace was not ready for genuine democratic reform, he declared, "It is not good to have too much democracy...
...Itprecipitated the largely peaceful anti-Communist revolutions in Eastern Europe that redefined the international system...
...Georgia gained independence in 1991...
...In a complete reversal of the hard-line policies ofhis predecessor, Andrei A. Gromyko, Shevardnadze led the battle to cut defense spending by withdrawing Soviet forces in Central Europe and along the Sino-Soviet border...
...He ruled initially by emergency decree, supported by cruel paramilitary forces...
...only seemed concerned with preventing large-scale violence...
...Soon, however, economic and political crises gradually weakened Shevardnadze's hold on power...
...By the time that he resigned, his view was accepted...
...He sacked the crooked ministers of the interior and security departments, but there was no genuine crackdown on shady practices within the departments...
...The first Soviet off icial to argue that the clash with capitalism was no longer relevant, he began his campaign to remove ideology as the basis of foreign policy in an extraordinary speech to the Foreign Ministry in 1988 that asserted there was no connection between national security and class struggle...
...To the end, he remained inpart a KGB strongman and a product of the Soviet system he brought to an end...
...Recognized as the moral force behind a "new political thinking," he was the point man in the campaign to undermine the inertia in the Kremlin and end Moscow's isolation abroad...
...He was the first Soviet official to declare that Moscow would sign a Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) without a separate accordio limit space-based weapons...
...Shevardnadze's career is replete with such contradictions...
...As the leader of the Party in Georgiaduring the '70s and early '80s, he battled corruption and introduced the most liberal political and economic reforms of any Soviet regional head...
...Assuming leadership of the Foreign Ministry in 1985, he was not a trained diplomat, or immersed in the complexities of international discourse...
...In Moscow the Soviet Foreign Minister had the toughest assignment of all: persuading Kremlin hard-liners that the moment had come for rapprochement with the United States...
...Shevardnadze signaled another major policy shift in a 1989 speech to the European Parliament, when he acknowledged the need for German reunification...
...He hoped this would take place within the framework of European institutions instead of military blocs...
...The Caucasus has been the most violent region of the former Soviet Union, and the energy holdings there invite further treachery...
...In Georgia in the 1960s and '70s, he had treated dissidents brutally and had condoned the use of torture in prisons...
...Nevertheless, he survived several assassination attempts in the mid-'90s, was able to rein in the warlords and jailed his most threatening opponents...
...When Washington was dissatisfied with the number of Jewish "refuseniks" to be released, Shevardnadze intervened to increase the quotas...
...By 1998, observers saw a Georgia that was increasingly stable, democratic and even prosperous—certainly the most successful civil society of any former Soviet republic outside the Baltics...
...And it produced real savings from conventional arms agreements and unilateral reductions that covered Soviet forces in Central Europe...
...Ubiquitous Mafia gangs and paramilitary thugs were terrorizing the towns and villages, and corruption was rampant...
...He told apress conference that he was "used to resigning," having suddenly quit as Soviet Foreign Minister in December 1990 because he anticipated Gorbachev's willingness to deploy troops in the Baltics the following month...
...Among Soviet leaders, only Shevardnadze accepted the link between human rights and improved U.S.-Soviet relations...
...Saakashvili, Shevardnadze's successor, is the most Americanized leader in the former Soviet Union, but the task facing him is daunting...
...He stepped down when it became certain that the use of force would merely delay his ouster...
...He had no allies left abroad and no reliable friends at home...
...Geographically, too, Georgia is in a perennially precarious position: To the north sits its old imperial master, Russia, in constant conflict with Chechnya...
...But events moved too quickly for Gorbachev and Shevardnadze...
...unpredictable Iran is to the south...
...He ran unopposed for chairman of the Parliament, establishing some legitimacy as the leader of Georgia...
...From 1985 to 1991 Shevardnadze's accomplishments on the international stage were equal to those of President Mikhail S. Gorbachev and President Ronald Reagan...
...When the Kremlin sought to reduce the number of people departing to prevent a brain drain, Shevardnadze pressed for free emigration...
...At the time Shevardnadze returned, Georgia was in the worst economic straits of any former Soviet republic, and two bloody conflicts were boiling over in Abkhazia and South Ossetia...
...Elected to the restored office of president in 1995, he embarked on another campaign to rid Georgia of corruption, reform the economy, and restore political stability...
...Bush that the Kremlin would conduct a strategic retreat of its military forces from Central Europe and the SinoSoviet border, pursue comprehensive disarmament, and resolve outstanding conflicts in the Third World...
...In Tbilisi he created genuine parliamentary elections, a progressive civil society, and an open press—unprecedented changes that cast light on his own incomplete transformation...
...The Georgian people cast their blame on Shevardnadze...
...As a result politics in Tbilisi grew more corrupt while the economy deteriorated...
...He forged close relationships with Secretaries of State George P. Shultz and James A. Baker III, who became proponents of reconciliation in administrations that were intensely anti-Soviet...
...By the end Georgians' bitterness over years of cronyism was focused on Shevardnadze...
...Yet he was also a man of vision with a commitment to radical reforms, a willingness to implement them in an unorthodox manner, and the resilience to accomplish his objectives...
...He pursued democracy to end Soviet isolation and create a comprehensive relationship with the United States...
...Russian President Vladimir V. Putin's decision to meet with the leaders of the separatist movements only 10 days after Shevardnadze's resignation points to the difficulties the new Georgian government is confronting...
...At the end of his political life, surrounded by fawning courtiers who would not speak truth to power, he seemed to have lost touch with reality...
...He proposed talks on aspects of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) that might be compatible with the AntiBallistic Missile (ABM) Treaty...
...Having established his reputation with a dramatic campaign against corruption, Shevardnadze faced charges that his own family was involved in underhanded political and financial schemes...
...Presumably the 36-year-old President will encourage a market economy, but progress is likely to be slow without the law enforcement infrastructure necessary to fend off organized crime...
...He tolerated the involvement of nearly all the government's major ministries in the smuggling business, particularly petrol trafficking...
...It eliminated the Soviet threat and the Western fear of surprise attack that had justified the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after World Warll...
...He understood that Soviet repression of the individual had led to international isolation and alienation from the West...
...Shevardnadze's first move had been a call for parliamentary elections in the fall of 1992...
...During a 1989 visit to Baker's ranch in Wyoming, he promised that the giant phased-array radar unit at Krasnoyarsk, a violation of the ABM Treaty, would be dismantled...
...Moscow encouraged his innovative and sometimes risky steps to improve the Georgian economy and overhaul its political system, viewing the republic as a potential model for change elsewhere in the Soviet Union...
...Saakashvili has moved quickly to remove the compromised governors and ministers from Shevardnadze's administration...
...The subsequent American campaign to expand NATO was a betrayal of Baker's assurance to Shevardnadze that the U. S. would not "leapfrog" over eastern Germany following the withdrawal of Soviet forces...
...In the Politburo he became a brutal infighter, blocking challenges from the Defense Ministry...
...The former Soviet Foreign Minister will occupy a large place in history, particularly in any assessment of the end to the Cold War...
...Both in Moscow and Tbilisi, Shevardnadze was a victim of the unintended consequences ofhis own reforms...
...He had ignored the very institutions he fostered upon his return from Moscow...
...Georgia has lost the Abkhazia and South Ossetian regions, and the autonomous region of Ajaria may be the next to leave...
...Most important, he rejected the archetypal Russian distrust of the West, and his apparent openness charmed his American counterparts...
...Financial collapse in Russia closed a relatively rich market for Georgian exports, and the resumption of the war in Chechnya placed Georgia under intense pressure from Moscow...
...To avoid charges of nepotism when he became the republic's First Secretary in 1972, he insisted that his brother, Ippokrat, a Party official, resign as the chief of trade, planning and finance...
...But his experiences in the cosmopolitan capital of Tbilisi, historically a crossroads for ethnic groups, influenced his attitudes...
...After its first President, the former dissident Zviad Gamsakhurdia, was deposed in January 1992, Shevardnadze the reformer returned to Tbilisi m the familiar role of unelected autocrat...
...It was his own Supreme Court that invalidated the fraudulent elections and incited domestic and international calls for him to step down...
...His involvement in rigged local elections in 2002 and parliamentary elections in 2003 led to his downfall...
...The nonviolent collapse of the USSR occurred because Gorbachev and Shevardnadze were committed to domestic reform, reconciliation with the West, and nonuse of force...
...The Foreign Ministerunderstood better than his President that Moscow's commitment to Communist ideology had limited its ability to adopt practical, constructive programs...
...Aware that he had earned a reputation for toughness while managing Georgia's internal security agencies, the Kremlin trusted he would not take reform too far...
...Georgia is the main route in the southern Caucasus for moving gas and oil to world markets...
...Shevardnadze thought he could play the Russians against the Americans to obtain energy exports from Moscow and economic assistance from Washington, but the U.S...
...The State Council was convinced that he alone could ensure stability and prevent the Russians from dominating Georgian politics...
...Success in Georgia wouldhave crowned Shevardnadze's place in history as not only the statesman who played a major part in ending the Cold War, but also the father of the modern Georgia state...
...They had no time to prepare themselves (let alone their political constituents) for the psychological impact of German reunification...
...He fought dishonesty within the Soviet Foreign Ministry in the '80s, yet ignored his family's role in crime on a grand scale in Georgia...
...Shevardnadze's spectacular ascent from obscurity to the top position in Georgia is a story of raw ambition, unusual initiative and brilliant infighting...
...His unorthodox tactics became the stuff of legend: During his years as Interior Minister in Georgia he packed a suitcase full of evidence he had collected to document the corrupt practices of local leaders...
...He was filled with self-pity on both occasions, blaming Right-wing opportunists in 1990 for his quitting Moscow, and the "youngsters" Mikhail Saakashvili, Nino Burjanadze and Zurab Zhvania, his former protégés who led the opposition in Tbilisi last fall...
...He deserves a great deal of credit for defusing the U. S. -Soviet stalemate and helping to bring aboutthe peaceful dissolution ofthe USSR...
...At the close of the Soviet era he led a revolution in national security policy, but its final stages brought his vilif ication throughout Russia...
...The black market is the dominant economy at the moment, and Tbilisi will require a good deal of international support if it is to oust its mob elements...
...His ultimate failure in Georgia to achieve an effective transition from satellite republic to independent nation, however, begs questions about his commitment to democratic reform and his ability to grapple with the government corruption endemic to his native land...
...On paper, he had introduced progressive electoral laws, but he observed them in the breach...
...Shevardnadze was a consummate opportunist—flexible, pragmatic, even ruthless...
...Melvin A. Goodman, professor of international security at the National War College and a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, is co-author of The Wars of Eduard Shevardnadze...
...A month later, true to his word, he told the Supreme Soviet that the radar was a "misguided breach" of that agreement...
...Rather, like Shultz and Baker, he was a man of action...
...He convinced Reagan and President George H.W...
Vol. 87 • March 2004 • No. 2
