Canada's New Man at the Top
WALLER, HAROLD M.
Girding for Spring Elections Canada's New Man at the Top By Harold M.Waller Montreal It was a long goodbye for Canada's Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, who after a decade in office...
...Not only did he round up delegates by the carload, cashing in on his control of the local riding associations, but he also amassed a war chest of some C$11 million, an astonishing sum for a Canadian leadership contest...
...Klein has shown no interest in the race and Lord is unlikely to leave New Brunswick just now...
...Current merger efforts signal a reuniting of the Right...
...By the end of the 1990s Martin loyalists were prominent among members of the Liberal parliamentary caucus and well represented nationally...
...Skeptics doubt that he could choreograph the necessary breakthrough in Ontario...
...At 65, he is not much younger than the man he is succeeding...
...Effecting the consolidation, gaining the approval of the rank and file, and choosing a leader may prove too daunting in the few months left...
...David Orchard's supporters hold that whereas the merged party would be pulled toward the Right, aiming for the center of the electorate would win more votes...
...Jim Prentice, a Calgary lawyer who ran unsuccessfully for the PC leadership...
...The new party will probably select a leader in March...
...However the merger on the Right plays out, Martin now seems to be in the driver's seat...
...It is hard to justify an even longer transition in a parliamentary system...
...Also in need of change is the suspicious atmosphere that pervades federal-provincial relations...
...At this point, the national debt has been reduced substantially, both in absolute terms and relative to GDP...
...They have forged a coalition that is likely to win significantly more seats than the two parties could running separately...
...and Ralph Klein, the high profile PC prime minister of Alberta...
...Tony Clement, a former Ontario cabinet minister under Harris...
...Modern governments can ill afford such prolonged inactivity...
...The entente between Harper and MacKay faces substantial opposition, especially within PC ranks...
...They require extensive analysis of theirunderlying causes...
...Americans allow themselves the luxury of 11 weeks between Election Day and the Presidential inauguration...
...Many of Martin's loyal supporters believe his own errors contributed to his 1990 leadership defeat...
...At first, the most prominent name discussed was Mike Harris, former PC prime minister of Ontario...
...Paul Martin, who was selected as Chretien's successor by the Liberal Party at its mid-November leadership convention, tookofficeon December 12...
...In seeking a mandate from the electorate, he can be expected to stress his responsible management of the nation's finances during the 1990s, and to fend off pressure from the Liberal caucus to fund costly new social programs...
...The PCs' strength, on the other hand, is located in Ontario and the Maritime provinces...
...Calls to "unite the Right" have been heard across the country for several years now, and by delaying so long, the PC and the CA may have boxed themselves in...
...After a decade of Liberal rule with no end in sight, though, perhaps the most important question confronting Canada is: Can a democratic system function if only one political party has a realistic chance of forming a government...
...He has hardly set the country on fire during his 18 months as Leader of the Opposition, but he has kept his caucus under control, managed the talks leading to the merger reasonably well, and developed a respectable national profile...
...In any event, the new Conservative Party will not fit together easily...
...After Chrétien won a third term handily in 2000, Martin's people began to express impatience over the PM's lack of long-range plans for retirement...
...Despite two majority victories under Brian Mulroney during the 1980s, the Tories lost their gamble with the Quebec nationalists following the failure of the Meech Lake initiative in 1990, and then suffered the breakaway of the Reform Party (now the Canadian Alliance) around the same time...
...Despite numerous criticisms about the length of his swan song, "the little guy from Shawinigan" vowed to remain on the job until next February, but early this November the Prime Minister decided to bid his goodbyes to official Ottawa...
...Concerned that Martin will move the Liberals too far to the Right, Heritage Minister Sheila Copps stuck it out...
...They have been working assiduously behind the scenes to ensure that he does not trip at the top...
...Although Martin was forced out of the Cabinet in June 2002, with the PM pointing to his spending too much time questing for the leadership, his lock on the party was so tight that no one could mount a serious challenge...
...In addition, there are pressing domestic problems that require attention in the areas of health, transportation, education, energy, economic productivity, income maintenance, and internal security...
...She won a mere 10 per cent of the convention delegates when they were selected in September, as Martin waltzed to an overwhelming victory...
...Most of the country's petroleum and gas reserves lie under Alberta and they are of growing significance in relations with the United States, so it is unlikely that Western alienation will dissipate soon...
...Polls that show the Liberals winning close to 50 per cent of the vote reinforce this view...
...If they don't merge, the Liberals would likely win a landslide...
...A possible fly in the ointment is the recently announced plan to unite two of the main opposition formations, the Canadian Alliance Party (CA) and the Progressive Conservative Party (PC), into a new Conservative Party of Canada that could develop into an ideological and electoral alternative to the Liberals...
...It remains to be seen whether a joining of the Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives would change the dynamics of Canadian politics enough to make it competitive once again...
...if they do, their combined strength could probably produce a respectable Official Opposition...
...Of course, Martin still must obtain a mandate from the people by capturing another election for the Liberals...
...The extended time frame for his retirement was reportedly designed to give other Liberals a chance to raise funds and launch their own campaigns...
...Their agitation came to a head last year as the deadline for a mandatory leadership review neared...
...By 1993 the once proud party was cut down to a paltry two seats in the House of Commons...
...The CA, currently the Official Opposition, is strong in Western Canada, particularly Alberta and British Columbia, but has failed to break through in Ontario, which accounts for about one-third of the seats in the Commons...
...He nevertheless proved an indispensable force, supplying badly needed credibility with his fiscally conservative policies...
...Since George W. Bush took office, relations between the U S. and its northern neighbor have deteriorated...
...Any list of the remaining possibilities would have to include the two present party leaders, Harper and MacKay...
...Consequently the government ran at a surplus while reducing some taxes...
...But without question, more intense electoral competition would be a healthy development for Canada...
...Recent Canadian history is replete with discarded politicians who had the opportunity to lead the country but could not hold on to the job...
...Of the rest, Harper seems the most credible contender...
...Martin terms the problem a "democratic deficit...
...The election could, in other words, turn out to be as much of a coronation for Martin as the Liberal leadership convention was...
...Securing a majority against the divided opposition—four other parties hold seats in the House of Commons—appears assured...
...He will soon set a date for the anticipated spring election, and he is unlikely to accomplish much until then...
...MacKay was not deterred by having publicly promised just months ago not to cut such a deal, and he runs the risk of alienating followers of former PC leadership candidate and free trade opponent David Orchard...
...The maneuver reminded Canadians that they used to enjoy a competitive three party system—consisting of the Liberals, the PCs, and the New Democrats— and the one in office usually had to worry about being replaced in the next election...
...Finding a leader is not the only task facing the projected party...
...Once the Liberals gained power in 1993, the son accepted the role of Finance Minister and dutifully deferred to the Prime Minister in the Cabinet...
...Some observers have speculated that he was pessimistic about the prospects of unseating the Liberals in 2004 anyway, and preferred to let someone else serve as the sacrificial lamb...
...Undoubtedly, he will be in a hurry to make his mark, but he has had 13 years to plan how to use his turn...
...The federal government's recent same-sex marriage legislation, for instance, has only stoked resentment out West...
...Meanwhile, he systematically built up support within the party so he would be ready whenever a leadership opportunity again presented itself, organizing in virtually every riding, as the constituencies here are called...
...Rather than confront the discontented members of his party...
...Because the PC constitution requires a two-thirds vote to approve unification, their opposition cannot be ignored...
...His perseverance has helped him achieve what eluded his father several decades ago...
...The terrorism issue in general has complicated matters since 9/11, but things came to a head when Canada opposed the war in Iraq...
...It is widely believed that Chrétien opposed Martin as his successor...
...The relatively new leaders involved, Stephen Harper of the Alliance and Peter MacKay of the PC, agreed in October to set aside the differences that have divided the Right-wing vote...
...It has been the main outlet for the traditional gripe that the federal government responds to the demands of the heavily populated Central provinces, notably Ontario and Quebec, and largely ignores—rides roughshod over—the West...
...He successfully reoriented the discourse in Ontario provincial politics, promoting what he called the "common sense revolution"—a mix of lower taxes, decreased government involvement in the economy, privatization, and spending cuts...
...For several weeks he was speaking out like a candidate and attracting considerable expressions of support, but he ultimately declined to run...
...That would leave him free to make his play in a subsequent election...
...Orchard, the most outspoken critic of the deal, labels it "a blatant swindle...
...They pair moderate policies on a number of social issues (hence the sobriquet "red Tories") with fiscal conservatism...
...Martin has waited a long time to become Prime Minister...
...And while it might complicate his political life, it would be beneficial for Paul Martin too...
...it is no secret that he and Chrétien are not on the best of terms...
...Power alternated between the first two, with the Liberals prevailing more often than the PCs, who have an illustrious legacy as the party of Canada's first Prime Minister, Sir John A. Macdonald...
...Martin, naturally, is well aware of this picture, and it will undoubtedly be a factor in his determining the date of the election...
...The CA's policies also reflect the West's social conservatism and suspicion of the elites who dominate cultural discourse in Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa...
...Bernard Lord, who has won two terms as the PC prime minister of New Brunswick...
...The new Prime Minister is himself quite wealthy, thanks to a successful business career running Canada Steamship Lines, yet prospective contributors could hardly say no to him if they expected to have access to the next government...
...During the last decade, when debt reduction was a key objective, plans for new spending initiatives were mostly shelved...
...At worst, therefore, the new party would spend four years as a well-positioned, plausible alternative, preparing for another clash with the Liberals in 2008 or 2009...
...Present Finance Minister John Manley tested the waters, then dropped out because it became clear he was going nowhere...
...Chrétien surprised everyone with his August 2002 retirement announcement, eliminating any need for a review...
...Harold M. Waller, who writes for the NL on Canadian affairs, is a professor of political science at McGill University...
...In announcing his decision to retire last year, he set an absurd 18-month timetable for the transition to a new government...
...The Prime Minister has the option of calling the election for April, leaving his opponent no time to mount a meaningful campaign...
...An early objective of a Martin government will surely be improvement of dealings with the U.S., Canada's dominant trading partner...
...Both parties would prefer to remain separate, but cold electoral calculations have left them no choice...
...simply throwing money at these problems will not solve them...
...Martin has doggedly pursued the top prize in Canadian politics since losing the Liberal leadership contest to Chrétien in 1990...
...As soon as the merger plans were announced, speculation about possible leadership candidates began...
...To many the party symbolizes the Central Canadian leadership that has run the country for over 130 years...
...He gave his support to MacKay at last May's leadership convention in exchange for a written agreement that there would not be a merger with the CA and that there would be a re-examination of Canada's free trade agreement with the United States...
...Girding for Spring Elections Canada's New Man at the Top By Harold M.Waller Montreal It was a long goodbye for Canada's Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, who after a decade in office finally stepped down...
Vol. 86 • November 2003 • No. 6
