High Political Drama in Canada
WALLER, HAROLD M.
Paul Martin's Dream Deferred High Political Drama in Canada By Harold M. Waller Montreal Summer is normally a slow period here. After the long harsh winter, Canadians seek out...
...A government can continue in office as long as it enjoys the confidence of the legislature, which is elected periodically...
...The Canadian Alliance, headed by the relatively youthful Stephen Harper, represents a very different slice of the electorate than the Progressive Conservatives, whose leader, Joe Clark, has just announced plans to retire next year...
...Harold M. Waller, who writes for the NL on Canadian affairs, is a professor of political science at McGill University...
...Chrétien meanwhile, despite his impressive orchestration of three victorious elections, had slipped in popularity and was widely regarded as having outlived his political effectiveness...
...This time around it was closely covered for hints of how the February review might end up...
...There is little doubt that his son became determined to achieve what proved to be beyond the father's reach...
...approach seems a waste of time and resources...
...Under a parliamentary system there generally are no term limits...
...He undoubtedly is concerned that he will be deemed too old during his second bid for power, precisely as his father was 34 years ago...
...Will the Liberals' internal bickering redound to the benefit of the opposition parties...
...Even though attitudes toward age have changed significantly since 1965, it is apparent that Martin's political calculations are made with one eye on the calendar...
...But its big virtue is that the predetermined electoral schedule looms over every politician and in principle no one's leadership of a party can be taken for granted...
...Or maybe he perceived his minister as the author of a perfidious betrayal Or possibly the very idea that Martin feels entitled to take over rankled the veteran statesman...
...Critics spoke of a "democratic deficit," noting that initiatives from the grassroots were stifled and decisionmaking was tightly controlled...
...The New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois do not appear to be in a dynamic phase either...
...This cannot be explained solely in terms of residual bitterness from their 1990 face-off...
...By this year Martin, who has worked at building a strong national following, had become the clear choice of most Liberals and even the population as a whole...
...Chrétien, who for years has been trying in vain to groom a successor, might also finally find one who will catch on with the Left wing...
...Three factors account for what transpired this year among the Liberals: Paul Martin's family background, the rivalry between him and Chrétien, and the incumbent's declining reputation...
...While Chrétien proceeded to win three popular mandates, Martin emerged as the heir apparent to the PM, who is now 68...
...The two names that have been mentioned are John Manley, currently both Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, and Frank McKenna, who was a successful provincial Prime Minister of New Brunswick...
...If the people want a change on election day they vote for the opposition...
...So the PM...
...to everyone's surprise, decided to announce his retirement -18 months down the road...
...In part, too, the issue has been especially thorny here because trends during the past halfcentury have greatly enhanced the power of the prime minister relative to the party caucus...
...But the meeting would probably rekindle the Liberal civil war that was averted by Chretien's declaration of surrender...
...But it soon became apparent that in fact the backing was not there, and the prospects for February were looking bleak...
...Usually this gathering devotes itself to developing plans for the new political season and attracts little media attention...
...Consequently, as the years rolled by his ultimate goal increasingly conflicted with loyal service to Chrétien...
...After the long harsh winter, Canadians seek out diversions and jealously guard their vacation time...
...The younger Martin, who enjoyed a long and successful career as a business executive, has been a party stalwart with a substantial corps of supporters...
...Canadians often observe these smugly, noting that they know who will be heading their respective parties well before an election is called...
...In the United States, of course, party leaders emerge from the primaries and are confirmed at the quadrennial political conventions...
...After all, the PM did go on to three national triumphs and Martin did serve as an invaluable, prestigious Cabinet member who gave the administration credibility in the business community...
...The third factor that set the stage for this summer's events was the PM's waning support in the Liberal community...
...his inattention to policy matters since his third victory...
...Israel experimented with direct balloting for the prime minister in the 1990s, but canceled the reform after only two races because it led to more problems than it solved...
...That leaves things up to the ruling party as a whole...
...It is hard to imagine a calculus that would make such a move worthwhile...
...It is no secret that the PM's Liberal Party was full of plots and machinations, and that Paul Martin, recently ousted as Finance Minister, was the key player...
...This is partly because the PM holds office by virtue of being chief of the largest parliamentary contingent, not by direct election...
...Another dimension of Chretien's odd announcement was his reportedly intense dislike of Martin...
...It is a cumbersome and expensive process that can last for months...
...It has become unthinkable for the head of a government to be deposed by his confederates, except perhaps for extremely scandalous behavior...
...The effect of Paul Martin Sr.'s political career on his son is probably at least as interesting psychologically as the roughly analogous relationship between George Bushpère et fils...
...Cabinet members chafed, too, as traditional deliberations were steadily diminished...
...Once Chrétien realized the game was up, he took a step that will make Martin's path to the top more difficult...
...As long as the opposition remain divided, the Liberals can count on winning again...
...He was Chretien's main opponent in the 1990 Liberal race and subsequently was the most prominent member of the victor's Cabinet...
...This past summer, however, represented a remarkable departure from the norm...
...Whatev er the cause...
...Yet the elder Canadian, a senior statesman in the Liberal governments of the 1950s and '60s, very much aspired to running his country...
...But in the light of the party's instinct for power, perfected over the past century, the only real question at present is whether or not Paul Martin will realize his oft-postponed dream...
...Chrétien clearly has snookered Martin and his supporters, who expected the quid pro quo for the PM's escaping review to be a quick and dignified exit in 2003...
...If most are content with their boss' performance, the proceedings are unlikely to amount to much...
...Martin was speechless when he learned how long he would have to wait before gaining the prize that finally seemed close to being his...
...Other indications that Chrétien had passed his peak were his losing favor in his native Quebec...
...But all this provides a level of protection at the top that has lately come into question...
...It has been evident for some time that should the PM quit, Martin would be the odds-on favorite to succeed him...
...Though party discipline is an integral part of parliamentary government, Chrétien carried it to extremes...
...Perhaps Chrétien regarded him as weak and indecisive, lacking the judgment and temperament to lead...
...But the incumbent, in one last defiant gesture, seemed to be saying, as the Globe and Mail's Jeffrey Simpson put it, '"Let me politically castrate Paul Martin.'" Delaying the choice of a successor until early 2004 gives potential Martin rivals a chance to prepare their campaigns, and it allows the passage of time to work against a man approaching senior citizen status...
...plus the scandals and allegations of corruption or conflict of interest that have come to plague his government...
...He antagonized party members, particularly MPs, with his arrogant and dominating style of governance...
...Since the parties do not convene between elections, the idea of a leadership review in the middle of a term evolved...
...So barring an unexpected closing of the ranks on the Right, the sole potential threat to the Liberals is self-destruction from internecine warfare...
...The venue for the showdown was the annual meeting of Liberal MPs, held in August in the remote Quebec town of Chicoutimi...
...In 1968, when he was 65 years old, his second attempt ended with a loss to the glamorous, much younger and more vigorous Pierre Elliott Trudeau...
...The effort to force the question of the PM's retirement, therefore, was driven in part by Martin's own steadily compressing timetable...
...But Martin is only four years his junior...
...Still, he faces the risk that in 18 months he might seem pass...
...His hopes of occupying the top job, thwarted when Chrétien beat him at the party's 1990 leadership convention, have never abated...
...That attitude prevails as well in the political arena, where serious business is supposed to take a holiday from late June through Labor Day...
...Actually, it was the culmination of a process that probably began shortly after he was re-elected along with a third majority government in 2000...
...Moreover, a President is constitutionally limited to two terms...
...From their perspective, the U.S...
...Most often the ousted party's leader will then resign from the post...
...a growing concern that he was out of touch with ordinary Canadians...
...He clearly had the necessary attributes and experience, but twice was defeated in leadership contests...
...With the leadership review likely to be canceled, Martin presumably will have to bide his time till early 2004...
...The situation gets far more complicated, though, when the caucus of a sitting prime minister decides it is time for a new face...
...Instead, in Simpson's words, he effectively "turned the clock against his nemesis in a dazzling but ruthless display of political cunning...
...Chrétien has appeared determined to block Martin's ambitions...
...As Minister of Finance from 1993 until this year, Martin received much of the credit for the sharp improvement in Canada's economy during his watch...
...The short answer is No...
...Citizens were transfixed by the high drama leading to Prime Minister Jean Chretien's August 21 announcement that he will retire in February 2004...
...The Chrétien camp made every effort to demonstrate that their man retained his parliamentary caucus" support...
...The best he can do as a backbencher is stay in the limelight by making enough policy pronouncements to maintain public interest in his candidacy...
...Canada, by contrast, gives the PM the strategic advantage of choosing the date for an election at any stage during his term that he deems propitious, avoids costly full-dress conventions before each race, and does not limit tenure...
...The Martinites could try to use their clout within the party to force an earlier turnover by insisting on the scheduled February review that Chretien's resignation has technically rendered superfluous...
...In a burst of hyperbole...
...Compare that with the way former Conservative British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was expediently dispatched when the Tory MPs tired of the Iron Lady and her policies...
...In the case of the Liberal Party, this has all the trappings of a convention, complete with delegates elected at the riding (or district) level...
...True, those two became President and neither Martin has been prime minister...
...As evidence mounted that he would be repudiated and humiliated there-or at best might eke out a weak endorsement from the faithful-matters came to a head...
...If there is discontent, however, a negative review could compel the boss to resign, necessitating a subsequent official leadership convention to replace him...
...No other Liberal would be able to mount a serious challenge if a leadership convention were held a few months from now, as it would have been if Chrétien had resigned effective immediately...
...Nevertheless, in June Martin was forced out of the govern ment...
...And that resolve has been strengthened by the belief that Martin engineered what Chrétien must regard as a humiliating conclusion to four decades of public service...
...National Post columnists Robert Fulford and Andrew Coyne compared the surrender of power to regicide...
...In addition, he faced a mandatory review at a midterm party assembly scheduled for next February...
...The stumbling block for the conservative parties is their inability to unite...
...Separately they cannot defeat the Liberals...
...Neither group has gained much traction in the polls, which is particularly disappointing to Harper, whose leadership victory earlier this year was accompanied by the usual high hopes...
...Directives issued by his office had to be followed to the letter by backbenchers...
...Whoever gets the Liberal nod will automatically become the incumbent in 2004 and lead the party into the next election, probably that fall or in the spring of 2005...
Vol. 85 • September 2002 • No. 5
