Quebec Straddles the Fence
WALLER, HAROLD M.
ELECTION FALLOUT Quebec Straddles the Fence By Harold M. Waller Montreal Quebecers handed the secessionist Parti Québécois (PQ) another election victory last November 30, its fourth...
...The opposition Liberals, with 43.7 per cent, gained two seats for a total of 48...
...At present the voters do not seem disposed toward separation...
...What is more...
...But that would not be in accord with Canada's fundamentally cautious national character...
...To win an election they have to pursue the soft nationalist vote aggressively, but run the risk of alienating their core federalist supporters...
...Still, each PQ victory means the Party can make the pitch for independence once more...
...But despite his strong performance in 1995, when he came from Ottawa at practically the last minute and almost pushed through the second referendum attempt, he is not capable of miracles...
...Provincial law permits only a single referendum on a given subject per electoral mandate (a maximum of five years...
...the drag on the economy caused by the flirtation with separation for over 30 years...
...The electorate is volatile and Bouchard is a powerful personality...
...In référendums, where there are only two choices and the ramifications of a Yes majority are highly speculative as well as possibly dangerous, enough of them have voted No to prevent the separatists from winning...
...The opportunistic Prime Minister, who has switched parties several times in his career, has held a post in the Federal Cabinet and has been Canada's ambassador to France, surely knows how to connect with people...
...Meanwhile, the rest of the country has to be exceedingly careful not to give the Québécois an excuse to generate enthusiasm for secession...
...For much of the campaign the PQ, led by charismatic Prime Minister Lucien Bouchard, seemed impervious to attack...
...Nevertheless, it reflects the thinking in a number of provincial capitals...
...The Court indicated that the negotiations would have to cover a lot of contentious issues...
...For nearly 40 years Quebec voters have tended not to give any party more than two consecutive terms in power...
...Unless he is persuaded that there is absolutely no chance of prevailing, Bouchard will probably call a referendum some time during the middle of his term, in 2000 or 2001...
...The small Democratic Action Party held on to its one seat...
...is 'We want sovereignty but take the time to do it.'" Certainly the PQ has a lot of work ahead of it before a majority Yes vote can be considered a real possibility...
...In short, Quebec's longstanding practice of "knife at the throat" bargaining will continue under the new PQ government...
...The negotiations would inevitably be long and drawn out, and their outcome is hardly apparent...
...and widespread resistance to a third referendum...
...He enjoys being PM, believes he has been effective, and is looking forward to leading Canada into the new millennium...
...Most committed independentistes cannot wait to try again...
...There are signs of Canadians losing patience with Quebec's antics and indecisiveness...
...A significant difference in the event of a third referendum, too, is that the game will now be played according to the rules laid down by the Supreme Court of Canada...
...The arithmetic therefore favors the PQ in elections, particularly when soft nationalists can always vote for Democratic Action and deprive the Liberals of badly needed votes...
...On this point it is noteworthy that Dumont, the quintessential soft nationalist, supported the Yes option in 1995 but now calls for a moratorium on référendums...
...Under Quebec's unbalanced system, with 42.7 per cent of the ballots cast the PQ garnered 76 of the 125 seats in the provincial legislature, known as the National Assembly, and ended up just shy of its 1994 total...
...That is a formidable task...
...And if it did, individual provinces could opt out with full compensation...
...These might include borders, the integrity of Quebec's territory, citizenship questions, apportionment of the national debt, the treatment of aboriginals and minorities who want to remain part of Canada, the status of treaties the country is a party to, what currency would be used, and relations with the rest of Canada...
...Polls showed the party cruising toward an easy victory, even a landslide, and separatists were already contemplating how their momentum would finally enable them to prevail in a new independence referendum...
...But it is not out of the question...
...In a referendum, with linguistic and ethnic minorities unalterably opposed to secession, the PQ has to get about 63 per cent of the Francophone vote to gain an overall maj ority...
...Such a development could very well sway public opinion and enhance the chances of areferendum success...
...Others, like PQ hardliner Yves Michaud, counsel patience: "The message...
...Furthermore, they have an intermediate choice, Democratic Action, led by the former Liberal youth leader Mario Dumont...
...This puts the Liberals in a tough spot...
...In any event, after his latest election experiencehe cannot count on a referendum victory being handed to him on a silver platter...
...But in elections, where the stakes are not nearly so high, the soft nationalists seem to feel they can vote PQ without incurring a great deal of risk...
...As long as the PQ holds power in Quebec and threatens separation, the country's integrity is at risk...
...The Liberals were hindered by Charest's difficulty in forging a new team that integrated traditional party stalwarts with colleagues from his days as national leader of the Progressive Conservative Party...
...In its decision last August, the Court denied Quebec a unilateral right to secede, while ruling that if it could obtain a "clear" (but unspecified) majority on a straightforward referendum question, the Federal government would have to negotiate...
...Charest, of course, would find it difficult to criticize any PQ action if he takes its bait...
...health, education and social welfare...
...The palpable disappointment in nationalist ranks has reduced Bouchard's superhuman image—bolstered by his recovery from a near-fatal flesh-eating bacterial infection, which cost him a leg in 1994—to that of mere mortal...
...So the next referendum, whatever its outcome, is likely to be the last one for a long time, and definitely the last opportunity for the aging stalwarts from the PQ's early days...
...That was important, because he was vulnerable on a variety of issues: draconian cuts to education, health care and municipal services that have affected nearly every Quebecer...
...The PQ stumble has not eliminated the prospect of a third referendum...
...Bouchard had his team prepped and raring to go at the start of the officially limited 33-day campaign...
...and the remaining 30 per cent are soft nationalists who identify primarily with Quebec, are willing to threaten secession to maximize the province's bargaining power within the Federal system, yet are not necessarily ready to break away...
...Traditionally, the soft nationalists are the key swing voters...
...Harold M. Waller, who writes for the NL on Canadian affairs, is a professor of political science at McGill University...
...Should they fail, Bouchard can always try to create a confrontation that could be interpreted as another "humiliation" of Quebec...
...Liberal voters are concentrated in a few parts of the province and the electoral system does not take into account the substantial population differences among constituencies...
...So the Quebec independence dance goes on and on, but at the moment it is a slow one...
...Federalists hope that another year or two of battling to both balance the budget and successfully administer the provincial government will further tarnish Bouchard's image...
...Most of the electorate here falls into one of three categories: About 30 per cent are committed nationalists who support independence...
...It is even likely that he will seek to inveigle the Liberals into a position of all-Quebec solidarity on the social union talks...
...Unfortunately, there is no easy way to resolve the matter anytime soon...
...He is boxed in by the election results...
...Consequently, rural areas that tend to vote PQ are overrepresented and urban areas that are Liberal strongholds, especially in Montreal, are underrepresented...
...Some would force a showdown and tell the province to either go or give up the idea for good...
...Bouchard favors the idea because it would provide a means of obtaining more Federal cash with no strings attached, and of fostering autonomy...
...Bouchard concedes, though, that he has no mandate at present to move toward independence...
...To win a majority in the National Assembly, the Liberals have to beat the PQ by several percentage points—not just one, as was the case —in the popular vote...
...From the mid-campaign consensus of numerous opinion polls that the PQ was firmly ahead, it was obvious Charest faced an uphill struggle...
...So great were those expectations that the distinguished journalist and former Liberal leader Claude Ryan termed the Liberals' eventual showing a "moral victory," since it derailed the PQ express and forced Bouchard to temporarily shelve his referendum plans...
...Thus he will focus first on discussions with the other provinces and the Federal government over the terms of a so-called social union agreement that would amount to a major revision of the Federal-provincial relationship...
...Yet even though Bouchard has promised he would only hold a referendum under "winning conditions," party extremists are expected to force his hand sometime during his new mandate, which runs until 2003...
...Chrétien won't be easily persuaded to depart...
...roughly 40 per cent are unconditional federalists who want to remain part of Canada...
...As for the provincial election, while everyone knew it would have to be held either this past fall or next spring, the PQ was far better prepared than the Liberals...
...ELECTION FALLOUT Quebec Straddles the Fence By Harold M. Waller Montreal Quebecers handed the secessionist Parti Québécois (PQ) another election victory last November 30, its fourth since 1976, but they sabotaged its independence plans by giving the federalist Liberal Party a plurality of the popular vote...
...According to a benevolent interpretation of voting behavior, the polls may well have helped him by persuading at least some people to switch away from the PQ to prevent its scoring too big a victory...
...Adoption of the plan would weaken an already decentralized federation...
...Where does all this leave Canada...
...The essence of the proposal, made by the provincial prime ministers, is that the Federal government would agree not to unilaterally initiate any new social programs in areas of their jurisdiction (e.g...
...The outcome also redeemed the new Liberal leader, Jean Charest, whose strategy had drawn wide criticism before a last-ditch emphasis on opposing another referendum took its toll on the seemingly unstoppable Bouchard...
...It would not be surprising to see Liberals nationally exert increasing pressure on their leader to retire and make way for someone less provocative to Quebec's voters...
...The situation is undermining the position of Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, who is a reviled figure among nationalists in his home province and has a penchant for generating anti-Federal feelings there...
...Knowing that the independence movement can hardly afford a third strike, he will undoubtedly do everything he can himself to create winning conditions...
...After the first one was soundly beaten in 1980, the separatists rebounded and lost the second one in 1995 by the narrowest of margins...
Vol. 82 • January 1999 • No. 1
