Canada Takes Stock
WALLER, HAROLD M.
AT THE END OF THE CENTURY Canada Takes Stock By Harold M. Waller Montreal As the 20th century draws to a close, many Canadians recall the bold vision of Prime Minister Sir Wilfrid Launer,...
...Yet that is where the Right can make serious inroads, should the Reform and Tory parties ultimately decide to cooperate...
...Yet the government stubbornly refused to even put the issue of allowing the entry of foreign (i.e., U.S...
...One of them is that Martin, who lost to Chrétien in a bid for the party's top spot nine years ago, still harbors leadership ambitions and retains a following...
...In many ways Laurier was right, although there is little doubt that the century now ending has been America's, not Canada's...
...What is apparent now is that Canada has to make the transition from a resourcebased to a knowledge-based economy if it is to become more competitive...
...And since nothing on the horizon promises to reverse that slide, the century is in fact ending on a sour note for most ordinary Canadians...
...Rather, the specter of separatism is one more sour note marking the end of the century in Canada...
...Harold M. Waller, who writes for the NL on Canadian affairs, is a professor of political science at McGill University...
...The recruitment of Russian, American and Europeanplayers also has altered the nature of the game...
...For nearly a quarter of a century, from about 1970 to 1995, it simply lived beyond its means in order to maintain generous health, welfare and educational services...
...debt...
...retailers the cause of their downfall...
...Canada was not alone in this regard, but probably allowed itself to get deeper in debt than most other comparable developed countries...
...Two of the three main department store chains have gone bust in the last decade, with the venerable Eaton's becoming the latest casualty only a few months ago...
...Indeed, Canadians will have to work hard to maintain the position, however problematic, that they have achieved in the century now ending...
...The biggest of them is whether the country can afford to maintain its standard of living and public services...
...Admittedly, support for the ruling Parti Qébécois (PQ) and its separatist option at present seems to be at a low ebb...
...In the wake of the Supreme Court of Canada's ruling last year on the conditions for a secession, Ottawa is trying to decide whether it should spell out what it thinks the required "clear question" and "clear majority" would be in a referendum...
...Moreover, the combination of high player costs and a weak Canadian dollar has contributed to a sharp decline in the aggressiveness of the Canadian teams...
...Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien has had to deal with conflicting demands on use of the surplus in his own party caucus...
...And this sense of uncertainty is being heightened by important domestic questions whose resolution continues to defy policy makers...
...It is doubtful, given the economic and political situation, that any politician would have the temerity today to declare the next century as Canada's...
...The United Alternative, a putative right of center opposition, remains merely a concept...
...Was the entry of Wal-Mart and other big U.S...
...Chrétien and Martin have responded with a three-pronged compromise that will utilize half the surplus for spending, a quarter for tax cuts, and the other quarter to reduce the accumulated debt...
...An effort to bring about a change is just beginning, but it will be quite some time before real benefits are realized...
...Perhaps experiences in the fields of retailing and professional sports have been too traumatic...
...On the surface this seems a reasonable approach, but it is not likely to produce individual tax cuts of any great magnitude, nor will it restore the cumulative cuts that have savaged existing programs during the past five years...
...This ambivalence about competition surfaced recently when the Onex Corporation sought to take over and merge the nation's two major domestic airlines— one of which, Canadian Airlines, seems constantly to be on the verge of bankruptcy...
...The dollar reached its record low lastyear during the Asian economic crisis, when demand for Canadian resource exports plummeted...
...Along with economic growth, though, it helped to produce a Federal budget surplus for the first time in decades...
...In addition, the capital gains tax rate is pushing 40 per cent, nearly double that of the U.S...
...Despite speculation about his considering retirement, he has reiterated his desire to stay put and undoubtedly is looking forward to presiding over the first Canada Day celebration of the next century July 1. Even though some in his party feel his time has passed (he has been in government since the Pierre Trudeau era...
...In contrast, the Right-wing wants to reduce the tax rates, arguing with some justice that they are increasingly being perceived as punitive...
...AT THE END OF THE CENTURY Canada Takes Stock By Harold M. Waller Montreal As the 20th century draws to a close, many Canadians recall the bold vision of Prime Minister Sir Wilfrid Launer, who served from 1896 to 1911...
...So if Canada entered the century with the self-confidence evidenced by Laurier's statement, it is leaving the century much less certain of where it is headed...
...Two of the original eight Canadian teams have migrated south in quest of more lucrative venues, and several of the remaining six appear to be having financial difficulties...
...All of these problems have been compounded by a dollar that reached a new low of nearly 63 cents U.S...
...and Mexico...
...Meanwhile the country's national sport, a source of great pride to Canadians, has been buffeted by the expansion of the National Hockey League south of the border...
...But that's not the whole story...
...In the case of the national debt, currently at about $580 billion Cdn., there is no expectation of paying it off in anything resembling the time frame projected for eliminating the U.S...
...airlines on the table...
...Chretien's point man here is Minister of Intergovernmental Relations Stephane Dion, who has been jabbing away at the péquistes (the Quebec term for PQ supporters) forthe past four years...
...It became evident that consumers would be the losers if there was no competition...
...Only in the last decade has it hesitantly embraced free trade with the U.S...
...The core of Liberal support in the last election was Ontario, where the Liberals took 100 seats...
...last year and is still struggling to get above 70 cents...
...Canada's other nagging problem is Quebec's never-ending pursuit of independence...
...But he is past 60 and may be considered too old if Chrétien delays his retirement much longer...
...But if the Right can get its act together, Chrétien's narrow majority in the House of Commons (157 of the 301 seats) might prove shaky...
...Chrétien complacently contemplates leading the Liberals into the next election, probably in 2001...
...The opposition is splintered, particularly on the Right, where attempts to spur a merger between the Reform and Progressive Conservative parties have not materialized...
...He appears to have the PQ on the ropes for the moment, yet it is unlikely that any Federal legislation will make the basic problem go away...
...That led to serious shortfalls in areas such as health care and higher education...
...He predicted that the new century would "belong to Canada," that the country would fulfill its promise through the development of its abundant natural resources...
...After the Liberal Party's election victory in 1993, Finance Minister Paul Martin finally began to make severe budget cuts without reducing the high income and sales taxes...
...In particular, Canada has traditionally been reluctant to try to compete economically with the United States, preferring to remain sheltered behind high tariff barriers...
...Throughout the century, Canadians have constantly worried about creeping U.S...
...influence and thus have adopted a defensive posture, especially in the areas of culture and the economy...
...Yet so long as the PQ governs the province—and it has for 14 of the last 23 years—the threat must be taken seriously by Federal politicians...
...Or were they done in by a failure to modernize...
...Unfortunately, the surplus is not large enough to restore health and educational services to an acceptable level, and pressure has been mounting for significant tax relief...
...The more Leftish members would like to increase spending, not only to revive weakened social programs but to initiate new ones, notably child care...
...Together the depressed currency, high taxes and cuts in government social spending have added up to a declining standard of living...
...Canadians reach a top marginal rate (combined Federal and provincial taxes) that exceeds 50 per cent at an income level equivalent to a bit over 540,000 U.S...
...The liberals have some internal problems as well...
...While laboring in the shadow of its more dynamic neighbor to the south, Canada has thrown off its colonial bond to Britain, expanded its population via extensive immigration, fostered an economy that puts it among the world's leaders on a comparative basis, held itself together despite ongoing tensions between its French and English founding groups, demonstrated how multiculturalism can work, and built a framework of health and human services that guarantees a modicum of protection to all its inhabitants...
...Nonetheless, Jean Chrétien appears to relish his role as the Prime Minister who will head the nation as it ushers in the new millennium...
Vol. 82 • November 1999 • No. 14
