Doing the Cha-Cha in the Philippines

...By now, he has brought the economy into line with others in a region that has prospered far more from free trade than closed markets and cronyism...

...A crowd approaching a million was anticipated, but he was thankful when as many as half a million (by generous police estimate) huddled beneath umbrellas in Luneta Park in front of the Manila Hotel...

...Perhaps the Cardinal's memory lapse was a result of his close alliance with Aquino...

...Individuals and interests with enormous wealth from obscure sources dominate the race, just as they have the frantic efforts to prevent any kind of referendum on cha-cha...

...Federal court decision in Hawaii, holding the Marcos estate liable for $2.1 billion in a class-action case involving " 10,000 human rights victims," has had no impact...

...It has been the crisis of a nation lost...

...Aquino, meanwhile, had come to see the 1987 Constitution, with its one-term presidency limitation, as her crowning achievement...

...From her base in Congress, where she represents her native province in Leyte, she has more than made up for her dismal showing as a presidential candidate in 1992...

...Ramos' critics hinted he was so eager to stay in office that he might resort to the tactics of the former dictator, whom he served as the general in command of the Philippine Constabulary...

...But be that as it may, the drive itself to gather signatures on a petition asking for an amendment to the Constitution that would enable him to pursue a second term was led by former Ambassador Alberto Pendrosa and his columnist wife Carmen, who set up the People's Initiative for Reforms, Modernization and Action (PBRMA...

...Ramos, returning the day before from a 10-day overseas trip, upstaged the ralliers...

...They simply shifted their energies to Congress, hoping that pro-Ramos pois could gain support for a "constituent assembly" where both houses would vote on the amendment...

...But Imelda, having been driven out of Malacanang Palace with the help of the Americans, considers herself one of the abused...

...Marcos guilty of at least something...

...We are here to shield that flame so that the light of democracy will not go out in our country again...

...Might she run again, not for president but for vice president, perhaps with the incumbent vice president—and actor —Joseph E. Estrada...

...They say government officials have sold gold acquired in a deal with the Marcos family, and have colluded with Swiss banks to salt away the $2 billion in secret accounts...

...Estrada joked to me that he hoped Ramos' "period, period, period" pledge was not "period, period, period, comma," but Ramos soon made clear that he meant it...

...We are here again as we were in 1986," she said on September 21, referring to the People Power Revolution...

...He wanted to "lay to rest any unfounded speculations about my own position...

...Not until Ramos won the presidency by an extremely narrow margin in 1992 did the Philippine recovery actually start...

...On the downside, there was almost no reference to a whole string of relevant questions...

...A 1995 U.S...

...Public "consultations" on the subject, staged by the administration at Malacanang Palace, did not have their intended effect either...

...But Jaime Cardinal Sin and Aquino, who both supported Ramos in his initial campaign, organized a mass movement against the cha-cha that proved a serious embarrassment to the government...

...For the Philippines, like the rest of the region, has been caught up in a series of fiscal reversals— a sagging stock market, a declining peso, a slowdown in the foreign investment that Ramos has worked so hard to secure...

...The President finally could do little except say he would not seek reelection...

...The syllables refer to a charter change—or, more precisely, to a proposed amendment to the Philippine Constitution adopted soon after Corazon C. Aquino ousted Ferdinand E. Marcos in 1986...

...As a candidate, Estrada might promise to maintain the reforms initiated under Ramos, but such assurances are fairly meaningless where superrich cliques are competing against one another for power and golden bank accounts...

...To Sin and Aquino, the vision of Ramos in Malacanang Palace for six years beyond June 1, 1998, conjured up the worst memories of Marcos...

...More than 10 years after People Power, not a single member of the old Marcos entourage—no crony, no corrupt official—has done a day in jail...

...For the rally on September 21 the Cardinal was assured of a huge crowd: He had ordered his priests to cancel their Masses and bus their flocks to downtown Manila...

...Nevertheless, he and his allies did touch a nerve in pressing for cha-cha...

...A crisis of truth...

...The Supreme Court in September ruled that she also has to stand trial on charges of transferring funds from government accounts to her own, but she continues to have considerable clout on the High Court and was allowed to take her seat in Congress—despite having long ago left her childhood home of Leyte...

...The cases against Imelda represent the most visible disgrace of the justice system and the society supporting it...

...She may have been well-intentioned when the People Power Revolution elevated her to the presidency, but she was largely ineffective during her tenure...

...The status quo goes basically unchecked, except when a disaster— a ferry-sinking, a flood, a mine cave-in, or a particularly gruesome "salvaging" (Fil-English for assassination)—momentarily exposes the system's flaws...

...Nor did they welcome the prospect of foreign competition out of fear that it would threaten their empires...

...This has been especially apparent with the recent sudden decline of the Thailand and Malaysian economies...

...A member of one of the country's wealthiest tribes, she was dissuaded by her Cojuangco brothers and other relatives from implementing the idealistic social programs she had professed to espouse...

...This would have allowed the country's top officeholder to seek a second successive six-year term...

...His new book, Looted: The Philippines after the Bases, will be published next March...

...The Swiss Supreme Court has ruled that it could release none of the $500 million acknowledged as held by two Swiss banks until a Philippine court found Mrs...

...The source was said to be a memo by the retired Swiss judge administering a trust for some of the Marcos wealth...

...Financed by Leftists and produced at the height of the debate over the U.S...

...Opponents denounced the meetings as another ploy designed to bring about amendment of the Constitution...

...It was in this atmosphere that the President's security adviser, Jose Almonte, also an ex-general, and two other Cabinet members conceived the cha-cha maneuver...

...The 1987 Constitution is not adequate to take care of the Philippines' future," he told reporters after arriving at metropolitan Manila's Villamor Air Base three hours before the Luneta Park event...

...The rhetoric level increased as she read from her prepared text...

...In contrast to the years of martial law under Marcos, Filipinos could at least express their views concerning a crucial political matter...

...Magtanggol Gunigundo, chairman of the Presidential Commission on Good Government, charged with finding the family's hidden wealth, hotly denies as "a tale out of Arabian Nights" a claim by lawyers for the victims...

...He naturally denied any such intention...

...Aquino will no doubt battle on to save her proudest achievement—a Constitution drafted by a commission of handpicked members of Congress beholden to no one...

...For once he had Imelda on his side...

...If anything, they hardened the battle lines...

...Estrada played the nationalist hero in an antiAmerican film, Agitila (Eagle...

...Amid the cha-cha furor, Filipinos began referring to the current crop of hopefuls as "présidentiables"—a local contribution to the English language that reflects the frustration of most people with the political dance...

...Hence her resisting change with a passion she never displayed for land reform, the search for Marcos' hidden wealth, or anything other than vengeance for her husband, Benigno, whose assassination as he returned from exile in the United States in 1982 led to the anti-Marcos revolt...

...Manila headline writers had a new catchphrase, "con-con," forthe unwieldy "constitutional convention...

...Then he called for a constitutional convention after the election in which delegates from across the country could vote on cha-cha...

...Marcos' widow remains irrepressibly "Imeldific" (an adjective bestowed upon her by a rambunctious Manila press that has blossomed since the era of media control overseen by her late husband...

...Neither she nor Sin is likely to give up easily, even after Ramos is out of office...

...They further pointed out a. disturbing similarity to the "citizens' assemblies" Marcos had held to drum up support for martial law...

...A Supreme Court ruling that the PIRMA petition was invalid did not stop the masterminds...

...The judge has labeled the memo a forgery and Ramos has called the tale "a conspiracy of falsehood and fabrication...

...They rage, too, in the countryside, where voters continue to be enlisted with the aid of the three Gs— "goods, gold and graft...

...The Armed Forces chief, General Arnulfo Acedera, did not help when he observed that it would be possible to institute martial law "in an hour" if an anti-cha-cha protest called by Sin and Aquino for September 21 got out of hand...

...For example, what does Ramos' record indicate...

...There was only one problem...

...Cha-cha had failed, this time, but the dance is far from over...

...We want to impress upon the leaders of today and tomorrow that we will come here as often as needed...

...In fact, he might not win if he were permitted to run...

...Donald Kirk, a longtime NL contributor, writes frequently on Asian affairs...

...The issue itself, to be sure, lost its luster with the refusal of the Philippine Senate to renew the lease on the bases in 1991...

...Do your worst, we will do our best to stop you," she declared, "and we, the people, will prevail...

...Indeed, a sign of the shallow roots of Philippine society's modernization is the resurgence of the Marcos name as Imelda attempts to save the family fortune and exert her own political influence...

...Her lawyers have had no trouble delaying a review of a 1993 conviction by filing a "motion for reconsideration"—a procedure that enables the rich to escape practically anything...

...To columnist Art Borjal, she and Estrada make "the ideal team of the genuine opposition, that segment of the political spectrum that has refused to recognize the legitimacy of both the Aquino and the Ramos governments...

...Even Cardinal Sin, one of the strongest forces against the Marcos autocracy, seemed to have forgotten how cronies were favored with monopolies of key economic sectors, how the national treasury was pilfered, and how every year the GNP fell several percentage points...

...Today there is a dark wind blowing across our country again—the wind of ambition, a gathering storm of tyranny," she shouted to the cheering multitude...

...But his words went virtually unnoted by a press fixated on charter change...

...When the Supreme Court, two days after Sin's mass Mass, unanimously rejected a new PIRMA motion asking the court to let the Commission on Elections verify the 6 million signatures on the petition, Ramos said the decision was "a clear verdict that citizens cannot avail themselves of the people's initiative...

...No one believes that she will ever serve the 18-to-24 year term meted out by the judge following a graft and corruption trial that dragged on for 20 months...

...The grandstand featured a panoply of politicians, including présidentiables Estrada and Senator Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, the quick-witted daughter of a previous president...

...On one level, the heat thus generated appeared healthy...

...We have gathered today disturbed by national crisis," Cardinal Sin intoned in his homily...

...He would celebrate the Mass himself...

...One of the présidentiables, Finance Secretary Roberto de Ocampo, openly lamented the absence of an issue-related debate and tried to remind voters of reforms he played a key role in achieving...

...military bases here, it was full of scenes of American soldiers abusing Filipinos...

...When her turn came, Cory Aquino was at her fiery best...

...Their concern is the perpetuation of their own power and influence in a struggle that has little to do with the welfare of the people who launched Aquino...

...Justice, though, has not kept pace with economics in the Philippines...

...There is no negotiation for the sale of this alleged golden hoard," Gunigundo told me...

...The Marcos wealth is not ill-gotten," she boasted...

...First, he told a cheering crowd in Davao, "I will not run for president, period, period, period...

...The ticket almost makes sense...

...The story got more bizarre when the Los Angeles lawyer for the human rights victims accused Ramos himself of holding Marcos assets in Swiss accounts...

...Who among the probable contenders for his job might do it better...

...Was he right to encourage foreign investment and imports, and discourage the protectionist tendencies of opponents ranging from self-interested business leaders to never-saydie Leftists...

...That date, of course, marked the 25th anniversary of Marcos' martial law proclamation—enforced by the then commander of the Constabulary, Fidel Ramos...

...An added dimension to all the bitter personal and factional infighting going on here is its potentially devastating impact on the country's still fragile turnaround...

...As for the presidential campaign now heating up, it is developing into a personality contest with Estrada counting on box office appeal to defeat any Ramos favorite...

...This does not necessarily entitle him to a second term...

...The worry is that his successor might revive the debilitating old crony system and the concomitant protectionist pressures that built up under Marcos...

...They underestimated their opposition...

...That today, more than a decade after Marcos was driven from office, a significant portion of the populace still doubts the legitimacy of his freely elected successors illustrates the factional struggles raging in Congress and the walled "villages" of the rich...

...She gladly denied that she or Ramos or anyone else had withdrawn Marcos assets from Swiss banks...

...She has brazened her way past a record of thievery and made a remarkable comeback...

...Sin called on Catholics, who compose 90 per cent of the Philippine people, to assist in squelching the determined effort of "friends of Steady Eddie"—Ramos' nickname—to get around the Supreme Court decision...

...For weeks the cha-cha dominated headlines here, while President Fidel Y Ramos issued ambiguous statements about whether he really wanted to run in next May's election...

...They could hardly have acted without Ramos' approval...

...A crisis of national life...