Perils of an Iranian Moderate

...Although the campaign focused primarily on domestic issues, Khatami emerged as a candidate eager to end his country's international isolation, especially its difficult relations with the West...

...So it will be extremely difficult at best for Khatami to pursue objectives like reining in the increasingly ubiquitous security services...

...Among other things, this doesn't augur well for Khatami's economic program...

...On election eve the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said he was confident Iranians would not vote for a candidate who would be "soft on America," a remark widely recognized to be a reference to Khatami, Nevertheless, Khatami appears to have galvanized the public with his moderate tone...

...Nominees of a number of legitimate (but quasi-proscribed) political groups were not permitted to run...

...Compounding the problem is the issue of Iran's relations with the West...

...Even so, this was the most open presidential election since Iran's first one in 1979...

...He envisions a continuing large state role—almost inevitable where oil accounts for 80 per cent of foreign exchange earnings and the bulk of government revenues—but favors privatization in order to achieve greater social justice through economic growth...

...They control thousands of nationalized and expropriated businesses, are politically powerful, and will not readily surrender their enterprises to the private sector...

...Finally, there is the international goodwill Khatami has stirred...

...The Clinton Administration insists that Iran must end its support for international terrorism, its opposition to the ArabIsraeli peace process, and its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction if there is to be a thaw in Iran-U.S...

...Improving them will not be easy either, but Khatami is certain to try...

...They favor those who have grown fat on the status quo...

...Women, who continue to be badgered by the morals police, look forward to Khatami's accession providing them greater protection...

...And Ayatollah Khamenei is unlikely to ease this stipulation to help his new President...

...The result was principally a personal competition among members of the ruling clerical elite that narrowed to two front-runners, Khatami and the conservative Speaker of the Majlis, or Parliament, Ayatollah Ali AkbarNateghNouri...

...As an insider, he appears to have thought seriously about ways of reconciling individual rights with the clerical domination of the state implicit in Iran's Constitution...

...The election was of course not free...

...As for the government itself, the bureaucracy is bloated, inefficient and ridden with red tape...

...His statement that intellectuals have a right to personal safety, for example, evoked the mysterious deaths of a number prominent writers over the last three years...

...To what extent he will be able to act on his mandate for change, if at all, remains an open question...

...They indicate clearly that people with traditional smalltown, rural, farm, andworking-class backgrounds are no less strongly attracted to his moderate approach...

...The Council of Guardians, a constitutional watchdog body dominated by senior clerics that also supervises electoral matters, approved only four candidates from a much larger field...

...Like outgoing President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in other words, Khatami is bound to discover that reforming the economy will not be easy, to put it mildly...

...Low-level civil servants take bribes because they simply cannot live on their salaries...

...Thus Iranians across a wide spectrum signaled their desire for relief from the social, political and cultural restrictions imposed on them by the clerical regime, and for improved economic conditions...

...When he speaks of enforcing the Constitution, in fact, he seeks both to assure his fellow clerical leaders and to ensure the rule of law...

...Similarly, no one doubted that his saying authority should not be the monopoly of one group pointed to the clerical domination of the state...

...All this bodes well for President Mohammad Khatami...

...The majority of its members are conservatives and hostile to the West...

...Mohammad Khatami's campaign emphasized the rule of law, individual rights, pluralism, and the need to invigorate civil society...

...In an interview that has not received the attention it deserves, a senior Administration official told Robin Wright of the Los Angeles Times that the U. S. is looking for ways to improve relations with Iran...

...In April, a German court found an Iranian and two Lebanese accomplices guilty of the 1992 assassination in Berlin of an Iranian Kurdish opposition leader...

...must take the first step...

...Khatami's chief rival was backed by the most powerful clerical organization in the country, the Combatant Clerics Association...

...To begin with, ultimate authority in Iran rests with the Supreme Leader, who, besides his religious standing, enjoys extensive patronage powers...

...He warns against the machinations of "the Great Satan" and the dangers of the "Western cultural onslaught...

...In addition to harassing Iranians, they have been linked to movements in Lebanon and Argentina engaged in terrorist actions against Israel and rulers in the Persian Gulf...

...He is unalterably opposed to the Arab-Israeli peace process, taking the view that Israel does not have the right to exist, and is quick to champion "Islamic causes,' whether in Sudan or in Bosnia...

...His victory last May 23—a resounding rejection of the state of affairs in Iran—has been welcomed by the Arab states in the Persian Gulf, European nations and the United States...

...Still, President Clinton described Khatami's overwhelming victory as a hopeful sign, and Secretary of Defense William Cohen said Washington will be watching for a change of course in Teheran...

...On the positive side there is Khatami's startling popular support...

...Parliament is another roadblock...

...But the Clinton Administration is waiting for a concrete signal that a new era in Iranian foreign policy has begun, while Iran's Supreme Leader has laid down the rule that the U.S...

...Shaul Bakhash, a new NL contributor, is the Clarence Robinson Professor of History at George Mason University...

...Even when Khatami spoke in generalities, everyone understood the import of his words...

...Nategh-Nouri also had the support of the bazaar merchants, whose interests he protected in Parliament, and was endorsed by Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati and other officials...

...But last year a new band of bullies, The Helpers of the Party of God, attacked female cyclists on a bicycle path in a public park...

...relations...

...Against all expectations, too, the ballots appear to have been properly counted and the outcome—despite its being the one least favored by the ruling establishment —has been accepted...

...In a country where the morals police enter residences to search for banned satellite dishes or to arrest young boys and girls for listening to Western music together, he not only said the government shouldn't interfere with what individuals do in the privacy of their homes but suggested that Iranians have much to learn from Western civilization...

...But he faces formidable obstacles on both the domestic front and in the area of foreign policy...

...The new President, however, is hardly about to overthrow the existing system...

...A remarkable 90 per cent of the electorate went to the polls...

...He knows that Western investment is essential to the repair and expansion of Iran's crucial oil and gas industry, and that this would be more likely if the domestic environment improved enough to gain American approval...

...Voters sensed a real choice between the two leading candidates, and the loose political and clerical associations that substitute for parties chose sides...

...In recent years he has consolidated his control over the security agencies, the Revolutionary Guards, the military, and the foreign policy apparatus...

...It is perhaps not surprising that his candidacy did exceptionally well among women, the young, and the educated, urban middle class...

...Unquestionably significant, though, are the large majorities he enjoyed in the provincial districts...

...A second asset is Khatami's being a member of the clerical elite...

...Senior clerics and their relatives, meanwhile, are direct or silent partners in profitable ventures...

...Together with its coalition partners, the Association won a comfortable majority in the Maj lis elections just last year...

...Khamenei has assumed the lead as well in promoting most of the attitudes and positions that exacerbate Iran's poor relations with the West...

...Khatami, who was ousted as Minister of Islamic Guidance in 1992 for being too liberal, captured 70 per cent of the vote...

...Several key issues, deemed taboo, were barely mentioned or not discussed at all, including foreign policy, the role of the security agencies and the military budget...

...The court further implicated Iran's Minister of Intelligence and other senior officials in the murder...

...IN pushing for privatization and entrepreneurial capital, Khatami will also have to tackle Iran's huge parastatal organizations, such as the Foundation for the Disinherited...

...By dint of their courage and resourcefulness, they have regained some of the legal rights they lost after the Islamic Revolution...

...The countries of the European Community and Iran's neighbors, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states in the Persian Gulf, have applauded his election...