What Went Wrong in Ulster

...Most people in Britain would be greatly relieved if Northern Ireland became part of the Irish Republic...

...And the ordinary people of Ulster, Protestant and Catholic, who prayed that peace was finally dawning on their troubled land, worry that bombs will once more rock their neighborhoods and masked gunmen will again roam their streets...

...An orange sash proudly draped across his chest, he stood with the Orangemen in defiance of the RUC...

...But finding that path appears less likely now than it has for a long time...

...Fearing he lacked the resources to safeguard the Catholic community...

...At the same time, most people in the Irish Republic, facing serious economic problems of their own, dread the idea of absorbing an impoverished province and assimilating a large Protestant community that deems itself more British than many Londoners and is staunchly opposed to ever being ruled by a Catholic majority...

...He is a police officer concerned with public safety, and that is what motivated his actions...

...Additional confirmation came July 15 in London, where a huge store of bomb components was discovered along with what appears to be a blueprint for blowing up electricity, gas and water installations serving the British capital...

...It was all a long shot from the outset, though, and the road ahead was quite literally paved with explosives...

...Instead, the acceptance of a compromise proposed by former U.S...

...Although a Protestant himself, he did not even fully appreciate the political implications of his original parade ban...

...Many Catholic families were driven from their homes by thugs...

...That would spare them the tremendous expense, the casualties and the disagreeable international image the "troubles" have inflicted on their country...

...Now the Catholics reacted forcefully: Mobs began looting, burning, and attacking the police as well as the hastily deployed British troop reinforcements...

...Even relations between the British and Irish governments, which warmed considerably as both sought to resolve the Northern Ireland problem, have been soured by recriminations over what went wrong and who is responsible...

...Ireland's Deputy Prime Minister Dick Spring has called the Ulster peace process a "search for a middle way...

...The Protestants feel trapped in a peace process that is relentlessly nibbling away at their position...

...from their fratricidal discord and steered toward grudging harmony...

...Now, with the resurgence of sectarian strife in the streets of Ulster, it verges on the impossible...

...Despite the exertions of the British and Irish Republican governments, the heroic efforts of local moderates, the intercession of President Bill Clinton, and a truce that lasted a year and a half...

...Whatever the case, many Catholics were convinced the Chief Constable's about-face was dictated by London and saw themselves being humiliatingly denied equality under the law, as in the old days of Protestant rule...

...Loyalist paramilitary groups have made it clear they will respond in kind against Catholic targets in the North, and perhaps across the border in the Irish Republic...

...Cars were torched, roads and bridges blocked...

...Given the backing of London, Dublin and Washington, plus the potential for heavy outside investment to reconstruct Ulster's shattered economy, it was thought the people of Northern Ireland might be distracted NORMAN GELB reports regularly for The New Leader on British affairs...

...When the parade in Drumcree was banned, however, he felt he had no alternative but to lead his followers where they were bent on going...

...The procession, held without exception each of the past 189 years, has been a traditional feature of the usually uncontro-versial, carnival-like celebrations of William of Orange's 1690 victory over his Catholic rival, King James II...

...One man was shot dead and others were beaten...

...Nevertheless, it came at a time when the Protestants were already wary of the peace process...

...AN EARLY source of disgruntle-ment was the tacit embrace of Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, who many Protestants are sure is secretly a senior IRA figure...

...The militant wings of these strong-willed tribes, in particular, have proven unyielding...

...And threats were made that tens of thousands of Protestants would converge on Drumcree in defiance...

...Talks held throughout the late, lamented cease-fire skirted this basic divide in the cautious hope that the moderate majorities on both sides—led by the largely Catholic Social Democratic and Labor Party (SDLP) and the Protestant Ulster Unionist Party (UUP)—would facilitate the devising of a modus vivendi...

...Catholic nationalist and Protestant loyalist aspirations are still stubbornly irreconcilable...

...But the Protestants have grown increasingly uneasy about what they perceive to be the British government's willingness to appease the nationalists in order to keep the negotiations going...

...orchestrated the republican response by silencing and driving out moderates in Catholic community organizations...

...One promising possibility was a regional administrative arrangement that would afford the Catholics symbolic identification with the Republic of Ireland and greater political representation than they ever enjoyed in the North, while assuring the Protestants, who make up almost two-thirds of the population, continued affiliation with Britain...

...The IRA may be planning new attacks on the mainland to force the British out of Ulster, regardless of what the majority there decides...

...They resented the naming of a foreigner, especially one viewed as pronationalist...

...Most distressing have been the periodic events of the last six months seeming to verify that the IRA's "active service units" were being prepared to renew their terror campaign—notably the February bomb attacks in London ending the cease-fire and the massive mid-June explosion in Manchester...

...Indeed, they have begun to distrust some of their own spokesmen, including UUP leader David Trimble, who with Washington's encouragement accepted Mitchell's appointment...

...Though willing to tolerate the peace process, the Catholic Irish Republican Army (IRA) is determined to have the province absorbed by Ireland, and the Protestant paramilitary organizations are no less determined that it remain unambiguously part of the United Kingdom...

...Catholics considered the event a provocative display of triumphalist bigotry at a time when steps were being taken toward reconciliation—a painful reminder of the oppression they had been subjected to until recently...

...Sir Hugh Annesley, Chief Constable of the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC), agreed with their assessment...

...London then added to loyalist worries by dropping its precondition requiring the IRA to surrender its weapons before Sinn Fein could formally join the negotiations...

...Initially they felt reassured by their numerical superiority, because London and Dublin had agreed that any resolution of Northern Ireland's destiny would be put to a provincial vote...

...According to Eilis O'Hanlon in the Dublin Sunday Independent and others, there is evidence that Sinn Fein, the IRA's political arm...

...The situation in Ulster is almost as absurd as it is tragic...

...But Sir Hugh is not a politician...

...He therefore banned the march, with its banging drums, piercing fifes and bright orange sashes...

...Sir Hugh reversed his decision...

...Whitehall's acquiescence to Mitchell's appointment on June 6 as chairman of the all-party talks scheduled to begin four days later also roiled Ulster Protestants...

...The ban was thus seen as the latest in a series of ominous concessions to Irish nationalism, and set off a wave of violence across Ulster...

...Senator George I. Mitchell, head of an international commission on disarmament of paramilitary forces in Northern Ireland, allowed the IRA to put off "decommissioning" them until everyone was around the table...

...That aroused the ire of the Protestants...

...The likelihood of a meeting of the minds further disintegrated at the beginning of July over the seemingly trivial issue of whether Protestant members of the ceremonial Orange Order could hold a parade through Drumcree, a Catholic residential area 25 miles from Belfast...