Canada's 'Phony War'

...On the other hand, with October's 49.4 per cent Yes vote to wave around, his bargaining position would be strong should he choose to bargain...

...What the circumstances require is a very carefully calibrated approach...

...When the Quebec government took the position that the Canadian Constitution would have no bearing in the event of a decision to secede, Ottawa came under great pressure to enter the case...

...The most effective sovereignist rallying cry during the 1995 referendum campaign was the emotional declaration: We are finally going to be able to stand tall and proud, freed from Canadian shackles...

...The question posed in the 1995 referendum was far vaguer than the unambiguous one a now impatient Federal government is likely to demand...

...So the prospect that Canada might break up has moved from the realm of speculation to that of contingency planning...

...Indeed, out of fear that in the end he will cut a deal falling shy of outright independence, PQ hardliners have been closely watching his every move...

...Chretien's new Minister of Intergovernmental Relations, political scientist Ste-phane Dion, has endeavored to convey the costs of a Yes vote to his fellow Que-becois...

...Yet he has also called for reviving the notorious language police, known locally as the "tongue troopers," who ferreted out illegal non-French commercial signs...

...To pound the point home, the government is threatening a law that would make it impossible for Canadian expatriates (i.e., those living in an independent Quebec) to pass Canadian citizenship on to their children...

...In addition, the New York financial community has made clear it would not look kindly on actions that might destabilize markets and jeopardize the repayment of the province's substantial external debt...

...At the moment the PQ government deems any solution other than separation a nonstarter...

...It has been fueled by resentment toward English-speaking elites perceived as dominating not only the rest of the country but the province as well...

...The aura of a man upon whom God was smiling added a mythical dimension to an already immensely popular figure...

...MOST FEDERALISTS think that accommodation with Quebec remains possible, at least in principle...

...When Parizeau was in power it was clear that the PQ only wanted independence...

...When Quebec Prime Minister Jacques Parizeau turned the floundering referendum effort over to him in mid-October, the "Yes" camp surged to a near victory...

...There are, however, serious stumbling blocks...

...But while he says he would like to satisfy Quebec through a greater decentralization of the Federal system, he hints darkly at steps that would be taken in the event of a Yes vote...

...He has been coy about the timetable for another referendum—promising stability for two or three years one day, then identifying a Federal government "provocation" justifying a snap election and referendum the next...

...At the outset, the movement's focus was the preservation of the French language and culture in a North American stronghold where Francophones are a mere 2 per cent of the population...

...Today that appears to be the mantra of many Quebecers who, having failed to win referendums on independence in 1980 and 1995, promise another shortly...

...One example is the handling of the lawsuit filed recently by Guy Bertrand, a feisty separatist-tumed-Federalist who has sought a permanent injunction against any unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) on the grounds that it would be unconstitutional...

...A few weeks later Bouchard was acclaimed the new PQ leader and thus Prime Minister...

...But even after Canada allowed Quebec to HAROLD M. WALLER, who writes for the NL on Canadian affairs, is a professor of political science at McGill Universitw enact language laws that seriously constrain individual liberty, the drive for independence did not diminish...

...A by-product of this "Quiet Revolution" was the surfacing of Quebec nationalism...

...The rules of the game, according to these separatists now in control of the province through the Parti Quebecois (PQ), are that only victories count: Losses simply set the stage for the next campaign...

...is a key issue...

...Still, no one knows how all this will play out...

...The notion that independence alone can end this vulnerability is the central theme of rhetoric dating back to the PQ's founding in 1968...

...The Quebec problem has been at or near the top of Canada's political agenda since the 1960s, when the province's largely French society began to modernize...

...His options, in short, are to use his considerable leverage to secure an altered Federal system that Quebec would find acceptable, or to risk turning to the voters again and possibly losing...

...After he nearly succumbed to a flesh-eating virus that cost him a leg in December 1994, many saw his recovery as a miracle...

...These considerations, plus the warning of native tribes and various minorities that they will do everything possible to stay within Canada, make for a dicey situation...

...On a different track, he has been attempting to assuage the fears of minorities, particularly the Anglophones, by personally assuring them that he values their contributions to Quebec society...

...Actually, Chretien's role is limited by two important factors: He is unpopular in his native Quebec, and fashioning a consensus within the rest of Canada is extremely difficult...

...Nevertheless, various factors mitigate against a quick realization of Quebec's elusive nationhood...

...After a weekend of bluster, Bouchard backed off his threat...

...there was nothing to negotiate other than the terms for dividing the country...

...The postreferendum landscape is very confused...

...Bouchard, in contrast, is seen as more of a compromiser, since in the past he has changed his political allegiances and commitments several times...

...Nationalist politicians here frequently use the term "humiliation" to describe the widespread feeling among Francophones that they have been relegated to second-class status...

...Despite Bouchard's warnings that he would regard such an intervention as grave enough to warrant a snap election, Chretien instructed government lawyers to file the necessary briefs...

...Their defeat by barely over 1 per cent of the ballots cast last October 30 has led the sovereignists, as they currently prefer to be known, to believe "one more time" will be the charm...

...And even if Bouchard could achieve a victory, what would happen if court decisions preclude a UDI and the Federal government sets stiff terms for negotiating the separation...

...Publicly, of course, Bouchard is committed to independence...

...Though polls show nearly 60 per cent of Quebecers ready to vote Yes, "Yes to what...

...Especially since legally a referendum on the same question cannot be held twice during a government's term, there would first have to be an early provincial election and the whole process could provoke a voter backlash...

...Moreover, there is a feeling that even if a viable scheme emerged—say, something similar to the once promising asymmetrical federalism of the Meech Lake accords— it could not be sold to Quebec, let alone the other nine provinces, by Chretien...

...Parizeau's bitter and nasty referendum night speech (one could hardly call it a concession), in which he blamed the loss on "money and the ethnic vote," instantly transformed him into a liability...

...Further complicating matters is the fact that in the wake of last fall's "close call," Canada's Federal government and Quebec's non-Francophone minorities are more determined than ever to find a way to thwart separatist aspirations...

...Bouchard must try to govern and attend to an economy that has suffered from the political uncertainty in the province...

...To begin with, having endured emotionally draining contests in each of the past four years, the electorate is not anxious for another exhausting crusade...

...Quebec and the rest of Canada are thus locked in a "phony war" period whose surface calm reflects the reality that neither side can at present gain a decisive advantage and hostilities are bound to resume at some point in the future...

...But the ultimate question is, what does the PQ really want to do...

...The prime medium for this message was the charismatic Lucien Bouchard, then head of the secessionist bloc in the Canadian House of Commons...

...Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien, startled by October's returns, has been struggling to develop a strategy to counter separatism...