The Question in Quebec
WALLER, HAROLD M.
TO STAY OR QUIT? The Question in Quebec BY HAROLD M. WALLER MONTREAL FOR THE THIRD TIME in the past four years, the United Nations Human Development Report has ranked Canada first among 174...
...His forming a troika with Parizeau and Bouchard notwithstanding, he appears uncomfortable about going all the way to independence...
...The belief that the province has been denied proper recognition feeds their conviction that severing ties with Canada will resolve a host of outstanding grievances...
...Undoubtedly Parizeau and his partners hope, too, that an insensitive remark by a Federal politician, or an expression of anti-Quebec sentiment in some part of English Canada will provoke an emotional response among Quebecers...
...Furthermore, because surveys have found that there is less firm support for the Yes than for the No camp, slippage in the pro-secession vote as the battle progresses would not be a surprise...
...For those who have committed their political careers to the elusive objective of having an independent Quebec take its rightful place among the nations, the struggle must go on...
...Most Francophones, who make up 82 per cent of Quebec's 6.5 million citizens, still harbor some sense of personal injury...
...To succeed, the PQ must mobilize Que-becer resentment dating back 200 years HAROLD M. WALLER, who writes for the NL on Canadian affairs, is a professor of political science at McGill University...
...Probably its key element is the attempt to convince voters that, given the failure of earlier efforts to change the national system to Quebec's advantage, a Yes vote is the sole remaining option...
...the roc's refusal to grant Quebec "distinct society" status...
...A third approach appeals to the voters' pride and general nationalism...
...He wants to make it necessary for the Yes side to prove its case that only breaking up the country can solve Quebec's problems...
...It found an even Yes-No split, but based its tabulations on the dubious assumption that undecideds would divide in the same proportion as decideds...
...including Canadian passports, Canadian currency, and representatives in Parliament...
...Sovereignty, on the other hand, appears to be perceived as sensible by French-speaking Quebecers...
...Not surprisingly, the PQ sometimes wins, albeit usually for reasons having little to do with secession...
...To draw Du-mont into the alliance, Parizeau had to agree to seriously pursue partnership with Canada and not merely treat it as a vote-getting tactic...
...Elected in September 1994, it vowed to pose a clear question that would finally settle the issue of what it has come to call "sovereignty" within 10 months...
...Here the three-party alliance is a persuasive factor...
...Chretien and his ministers in Ottawa have been very careful to avoid giving the Yes forces any kind of target...
...In other words, it is arguably the best place to live...
...Consequently, the pro-independence "Yes" forces abjure the other terms and refer to themselves as sovereignists...
...and its failure to view Quebec as equal to English Canada (never mind that it has only one quarter of the national population...
...that would surely lose...
...But it might put it to rest for a generation...
...THE BATTLE PLAN of the pro-independence camp is multi-pronged...
...To be sure, all four terms amount to the same thing, yet the spectrum of responses to poll takers employing them individually testifies to the separatists' success in sowing confusion...
...The separatists know they are not alone in desiring change...
...Given the complexities of Quebec nationalism, it is doubtful that the October referendum will settle that question...
...But Levesque committed it to pursuing the goal only if a majority of the voters agreed...
...The challenge now facing Quebec Prime Minister Jacques Parizeau is the same one that faced Levesque: to enlist enough softer nationalists to break the 50 per cent barrier in a referendum...
...But if the only way to bring their fellow citizens along is by dangling promises of partnership with Canada, can Quebec voters really think Canada such a bad place to live after all...
...Buttressing this argument are references to what the PQ describes as betrayals of Quebecers: the patriation of the 1982 Constitution that made the country legally autonomous of Britain...
...The PQ of course did not meet its own deadline...
...But economic union, political union, passports, currency, citizenship, the Bank of Canada—it's [Canadians outside Quebec] who will decide...
...Nevertheless, this poll clearly suggests that the No side could win fairly comfortably if it manages to drive home the message that a vote for sovereignty and an offer of partnership is first of all a vote for an independent country...
...It enables the Yes campaign to appear broad-based, rather than a narrow partisan undertaking by one party eager for greater power...
...This is where terminology becomes crucial: Surveys over the years show that separatism, secession, and independence are concepts with limited voter appeal...
...Given the probable economic and other consequences of a rupture with Canada, his is no easy task...
...One of the Prime Minister's stock comments of late is simply, "We have the best country in the world, Canada...
...The balloting, set for October 30, will fulfill a campaign promise of Quebec's governing Parti Quebecois (PQ...
...In contrast to Parizeau, Dumont seems more anxious to use the leverage of the referendum to negotiate a new partnership with the roc than to be a big shot in a separate country...
...But they believe raising the level of disgrun-tlement in the province could force Quebec Liberal Party leader Daniel Johnson, head of the No forces, into a box: If he defends the status quo, he will look bad to those who want change...
...Another poll, anticipating the drafters of the October 30 question, tested support for sovereignty combined with an offer of economic and political partnership with Canada...
...It has been campaigning steadily since the June alliance...
...That is tough to do logically...
...The new one is more radical: It would authorize independence regardless of whether Canada accepts partnership conditions already set forth by Quebec...
...So 15 years after the 1980 referendum's failure, the PQ is trying once more to gain popular approval for turning Quebec into a nation...
...They also recognize that not every opponent of present circumstances thinks their objective is the best one...
...Indeed, those who have elected it three times are far less attracted to the notion than is the party...
...They cited especially the weak convictions of many Yes survey respondents, and the inability of sovereignty proponents to present persuasive arguments...
...The great unknown now is whether anything untoward will happen to derail one or the other camp...
...Despite the setback, the PQ has remained one of the two dominant parties in the largely French-speaking province, its archrival being the Liberal Party of Canada...
...In related maneuvers, "No" advocates are being denigrated as defenders of the status quo—puppets of the Federal government in general and Prime Minister Jean Chretien in particular...
...This sounds like a rehash of the 1980 "sovereignty-association" question, but it actually goes farther...
...Instead, the people of Quebec will have to decode a manipulative proposition, obfuscation by obfuscation, while the rest of Canada—now known as "roc" in the national jargon—watches from the sidelines...
...Under the old proposal, independence was contingent upon an economic association with the roc...
...Thus there is considerable irony in the fact that the province of Quebec will shortly hold a referendum on separating from Canada...
...LATE SUMMER polling showed a neck and neck race, but that should give scant comfort to the Yes side...
...Although Parizeau would personally prefer a flat-out declaration of secession, most observers agree that would not get off the ground...
...That is precisely what happened in 1980, when the Yes forces started ahead...
...Even more tellingly, they pointed out that the two major goals of Quebec nationalists in the past—protection of the French language and culture and an interventionist state—have both been achieved within the context of the current federal system...
...Another important aspect of the PQ strategy is the alliance Parizeau concluded on June 12 with Lucien Bouchard, the charismatic leader of the separatist Bloc Quebecois (which sits in the Federal House of Commons), and Mario Du-mont, the ambitious 25-year-old head of the small provincial Parti Action Demo-cratique du Quebec (PADQ...
...Stronger feelings of second-class citizenship account for the core of separatists, comprising a fourth to a third of Quebec's population...
...The No side held back, waiting for the official start of the campaign in September...
...As for the referendum question, voters are being asked to endorse a "sovereign" Quebec that would seek economic ties to Canada...
...How he reacts when the referendum campaign comes down to the wire may prove pivotal...
...to the British "conquest" of the French in North America...
...Significantly, many respondents who said they were leaning toward a Yes vote also indicated that they want to retain several key links with the roc...
...The debate he launched was most clamorous in the period between the PQ's initial election victory in 1976 and the 60-40 per cent defeat of the first referendum it sponsored in 1980...
...The separatists were already dealt a heavy psychological blow late this summer when four academics, all identified with the independence cause, published a newspaper article predicting the outcome of the referendum would be No...
...All these charges aim at stirring the voters' discontent with the existing situation...
...The Question in Quebec BY HAROLD M. WALLER MONTREAL FOR THE THIRD TIME in the past four years, the United Nations Human Development Report has ranked Canada first among 174 countries...
...Nor is it about to present an unambiguous question to the electorate...
...And that the decision could be negative was demonstrated by the reaction at a recent meeting of provincial prime ministers to Pari-zeau's remarks about English Canada having to accept close ties to an independent Quebec to protect its own economic interests...
...Moreover, the polls have shown a lack of enthusiasm for the whole contest right now: Only 6 per cent of the respondents to one sampling thought sovereignty should be the Quebec government's top concern, whereas 66 per cent thought the economy, jobs or the government deficit should be its highest priority...
...The trick for the PQ has been to dress its non-negotiable unilateral break in the comforting garb of association...
...Just as in 1976, their latest election victory over the Liberals represented therejection of a party that seemed worn out and bereft of new ideas, not a surging nationalism...
...His moderately nationalist PADQ garnered about 6 per cent of the vote...
...ifhe begins to discuss the possibilities for change—as he did recently in response to goading from his party's youth wing—he will run the risk of alienating some No supporters, and opening himself to accusations that he is simply rehashing discredited ideas he can't deliver on anyway because English Canada won't go along...
...It's not Quebecers...
...So is the fact that when simply asked whether they favor Quebec becoming an independent country, only 30 per cent of respondents said Yes, while 44 per cent said No and 26 per cent were undecided or declined to answer...
...The contradiction in that position is being emphasized by the No side...
...They fear that the French language and culture will not survive on this continent without extraordinary measures, which today means significant state intervention...
...Theoretically, it could simply claim a mandate and declare independence through local legislation...
...This existential divorce proceeding has been going on at the very least since 1968, when the late Rene Levesque founded the PQ and put the matter of Quebec's possible departure from Canada on the table...
...Even in the wake of theROC's failure to ratify the 1987 Meech Lake and 1992 Charlottetown initiatives—designed to grant Quebec "distinct society" status—the separatists have found it difficult to arouse passionate support for their cause...
...A former Liberal youth wing leader, Dumont struck out on his own in last year's election...
...In addition, Chretien has been working to dissuade voters from believing a partnership with Canada is inevitable: "I've said from the beginning they can vote for separation if they want...
Vol. 78 • September 1995 • No. 7
