Chirac's Perilous Promises

...Introduced by former Socialist Prime Minister Michel Rocard as a "provisional measure," it was doubled to 2.2 per cent when the neo-Gaullists and their Center-Right allies conquered Parliament in 1993...

...Trade union leaders want legal guarantees that this will not be permitted...

...AS FOR THE older generations, if the government fails to achieve its labor and social goals, they are not likely to be mollified by merely changing the way the country is run...

...Elderly people and parents of small children, for example, will be given allowances to take on helpers...

...Government chauffeurs and police escorts have been ordered not to wail and flash their way through traffic, ignoring red lights...

...Buffeted by such contradictions, the franc has fallen against the deutsche mark since Chirac took office...

...He would like Chirac to convene Parliament, now in recess, and introduce the changes before the summer...

...Seguin and several other influential government politicians, though, would cheer if France failed to meet the targets set in the Maastricht Treaty on European Union...

...Even in times of crisis, it reacts slowly, and debate iskept to a minimum...

...One word sums up my program: jobs," Juppe told Parliament...

...Charles de Gaulle gave the Assembly the poisoned gift of a 96-day year—an expression of his contempt for parliamentary democracy and the professional politicians who squeeze influence and wealth from it...

...Like most French, though, he is clearly disturbed by the "social cancer" of unemployment, currently afflicting 12 per cent of the work force, and the remoteness of politicians, who have seemed increasingly privileged over the past decade...

...One way would be to increase the tax on sales and services (VAT), from its present 18.6 per cent rate to 20 per cent...

...The big question—which surprisingly few people are asking—is: How are all these measures to be financed...

...We expect to be judged on our ability to stimulate a genuine and lasting growth of employment...

...Chirac has called, too, for a region-by-region assessment of the country's labor needs...

...Chirac has assured Germany's Chancellor Helmut Kohl that France favors a single European currency and close-knit Europe...

...An overwhelming majority of France's supposedly radical youths are guesstimated to have voted for Chirac...

...Critics have raised the obvious objection that some employers, to qualify for the bonus, may be tempted to replace their present workers...

...Naturally, Seguin is enthusiastic...

...Juppe, of course, argues that there is no hurry...

...Thus, while his Prime Minister, Alain Juppe, outlined steps to get 1 million people back to work over the next three years, Chirac was asking his new ministers to try not to behave like apparatchiks...

...His Constitution, still in effect, placed the government under the President's thumb and severely reduced Parliament's role in the running of the country...

...Actually, this may be a blessing in disguise...

...Defense Minister Charles Mil-Ion has appointed 10 advisers...

...Chirac has said that a minister who comes under investigation must resign immediately...

...and he has made inflation-wary economists shudder by inviting government officials throughout France to develop job-creating schemes...

...And Chirac knows he has a spare fuse...

...Justice Minister Jacques Toubon swears he will not in any way put pressure on a magistrate investigating a "sensitive" case...

...If they do not, the victim will be Juppe, not Chirac...

...Under the constitutional reform he is urging, a permanent finance committee would oversee public spending, and deputies would enjoy greater control over ministers...

...But he has asked his ministers not to recruit large armies of advisers...

...Chirac's promise of a compact team notwithstanding, his 42-member government is the second-largest in 40 years...

...For a start he wants members of the National Assembly to sit for 150 days a year instead of the present 96...

...Neo-Gaullist business and political circles include powerful enemies of a strong franc, like Philippe Seguin, chairman of the National Assembly...

...Mitterrand contested the Constitution while in opposition, then found it convenient once he took up residence in the Elysee Palace...

...Despite Juppe's claims, it is difficult to see how he can both carry out his program and contain the national deficit of roughly $55 billion without slashing, say, the defense budget and subsidies to state-owned airlines, banks and other enterprises that are overstaffed and losing money...

...In any event, inflation—now a low 1.6 per cent—is bound to nse...

...An employer hiring anybody who has been out of work for a year or more will be exempt from making Social Security contributions and will receive 2,000 francs, about $400, every month for two years...

...Cynics say he may need them: His name appears in a document that has landed on the desk of an investigating magistrate trying to unravel the obscure finances of the Republican Party, and he is its vice president...

...Juppe, however, has been silent about most of these matters...

...He has further vowed toprovide accommodations for 10,000 homeless families this winter and another 10,000 in 1996, in addition to 20,000 already under way...

...Yet he has put forward some pseudo-Keynesian measures and institutional reforms that are dearer to left-of-center hearts than to those of the prosperous middle class, whom he promised less taxation...

...He has also decided to abolish the fleet of 20-odd military planes on permanent standby that took ministers wherever they wished to go, whether to an international summit or a dinner on the Cote d'Azur...

...The group it may prove most dangerous to disappoint is made up of les jeunes, the 18-to-25-year-olds...

...Because the VAT and CSG hit low-income workers hardest, upping them is likely to revive the demands for higher wages that set off strikes early in the spring—and were supported by Chirac...

...Juppe says he prefers to trust the "civic sense" of employers, who will also receive financial incentives for hiring under-25-year-olds after they have completed training courses...

...His few relevant practical moves so far will benefit only a small minority of young people...

...Prime Minister Juppe plans to raise the minimum wage by 3.9 per cent, starting in July, and wants to reduce business taxes...

...With some 2 million students crowding France's universities, many of them restless, Chirac would do well to remember that nationwide campus agitation contributed to his defeat in the 1988 presidential election, following his two years as Prime Minister under Socialist President Francois Mitterrand...

...Thanks to de Gaulle's Constitution, the Prime Minister is a cutout protecting the President...

...Other initiatives aim simultaneously at promoting social well-being and easing the job shortage...

...Chirac seems to think such changes can repair the image of France's politicians, whose credibility has been severely damaged by recent cases of corruption...

...But that would make unemployment even worse...

...AnJanice Valls-Russell writes about French and Spanish affairs for the NL...

...Of Finance Minister Alain Madelin's seven advisers, three will be in charge of public relations...

...Apparently they took his words at face value when he said they could count on jobs, student grants and a generally brighter future if he were elected...

...Although the previous government tried to boost consumption during the past two years, domestic spending has remained sluggish...

...They are expected to cost at least $ 15 billion a year...

...Time will tell whether these and similar statements prove true...

...Some ministers are chafing at the restrictions...

...Seguin, waiting eagerly to take the place of a spent Juppe...

...Indeed, whatever principles Chirac stands for remain as hazy as on the first day of his campaign...

...In fact, an "attack" on the franc on foreign exchanges would provide a convenient scapegoat and give Juppe a pretext for wriggling out of his rather extravagant declaration that he will keep the franc "stable...

...Considering the references to de Gaulle peppering Chirac's speeches, it is both ironic and to his credit that he wants to increase Parliament's prerogatives...

...Overall, the various undertakings announced by Juppe fall short of fulfilling the expectations aroused by Chirac's rash campaign promises...

...other would be to increase the pretax "general social contribution" (CSG) levied on all wages...