Turkey's Embattled Secularist

...and might very well step in to prevent the emergence of a government headed by Islamic fundamentalists...

...Her handling of the Kurds has consisted chiefly of renewed military initiatives and promises of early victory...

...How this will affect the inner workings of the revamped coalition is still unclear...

...With more than half the Army deployed against the insurgents, Turkey has become the world's fourth biggest importer of arms...

...The unified CHP unanimously chose as its head Hikmet Cetin, who has become the Deputy Prime Minister...

...On three occasions in the past 35 years it has intervened in Turkish politics...

...What is more, allegations of massive human rights abuses against civilians in the southeast—ranging from summary executions to disappearances and torture—have strained relations with Western nations, threatening to deal a worse blow to the economy...

...Moreover, Yilmaz has indicated that besides Ciller's departure, he wants an agreement on early elections, something most DYP leaders are eager to avoid...

...For the moment, in any event, Ciller is breathing a little easier thanks to a consolidation on the fractured Left...

...It may be, as has been suggested, that the Prime Minister actually has to begin the whole peace process by persuading Syria, Armenia and Greece to stop arming, training and supplying the PKK...

...The independent consensus is that the PKK probably could go on fighting for years in the mountainous southeast...

...Some have joined the rising chorus of calls from business leaders and members of the Opposition Motherland Party (ANAP) for early elecJohn Doxey, a new contributor, is a freelance journalist based in Turkey...

...This is not my fault at all," she told a national television audience in January...

...But even if Ciller opts for peace talks, her position is complicated by several critical unknowns: Would the military agree to ending the war without an unconditional surrender by the PKK...

...But the agreement must be ratified by the European Parliament, which has passed a resolution condemning Turkey's human rights record...

...The odd-couple nature of her original coalition, with the not always reliable Leftist Social Democratic Party (SHP), certainly contributed to Ciller's troubles...

...Thus the failure to demonstrate progress in resolving the Kurdish conflict could dash Ciller's chances for reelection and hasten the arrival of a Muslim fundamentalist government...

...Kurds, it should be noted, comprise about a fifth of Turkey's population...

...A case in point is the agreement signed March 6 to admit Turkey into the customs union of the European Union (EU) next year...

...Turkey could find itself confronting the sort of civil strife between Islamic militants and secularists that is tearing apart Algeria, perhaps sparked by a postelection military coup...

...Nevertheless, it is unlikely that anything short of direct negotiations could bring the draining struggle to a halt...

...Its suddenly running close behind the DYP (22 per cent) and ANAP (21 per cent) is attributed to effective grassroots campaigns...

...others have indicated they would be content with government recognition and economic assistance...

...A 48-year-old former economics professor, Ciller (pronounced Chill-air) believes that privatization of state companies and tight controls on government spending are the keys to economic recovery...

...Disaster, however, is not inevitable...

...In stark contrast to Ciller...

...Personal animosity between Ciller and ANAP leader Mesut Yilmaz, probably the Prime Minister's harshest critic, has led her to resist any association with the Opposition...

...But under rules drawn up by Ozal...

...Even President Siileyman Demirel, a DYP founder andan erstwhile Ciller backer, has pushed for her resignation and the formation of a new coalition...

...But many Turks worry that the religiously fundamentalist party seeks to turn this nation of 60 million—Europe's second most populous—into an Iranian-style Islamic state...

...But when Prime Minister Tansu Ciller burst into tears in Parliament recently while expressing sympathy for Turkey's financially strapped civil servants, her emotional display struck many here as appropriate—and long overdue...

...Teaming ANAP's 96 parliamentary votes with those of the DYP, advocates argue, would ease passage of legislation favored by both parties...

...SHOULD THE PICTURE painted by the pollsters prove accurate in '96...

...On the Left, Ecevit has done an impressive job of distancing his DSP from its chief rival, the CHP...

...Ocalan, it is true, operates from a base in neighboring Syria and heads a "party" seemingly more intent on killing Turkish soldiers and intimidating villagers than on solving local problems...

...Because the DYP holds only 183 seats in the 450-member Parliament, it has often had to seek support from Alpaslan Tiirkes' far-Right Nationalist Action Party (MHP...

...About the importance of initiating the process there are few doubts...

...The resurgent, increasingly conservative Democratic Left Party (DSP) of former Prime Minister Biilent Ecevit would place second with about 20 per cent...

...a party securing at least 25 per cent of the vote can form a minority government...

...She imposed a series of harsh austerity measures, including a de facto freeze on public sector wages and severe restrictions on currency flowing in and out of the country...

...The argument has been that he and his rebel forces—thought to number less than 20,000—are terrorists who do not represent Turkey's Kurds...

...Anti-Turk -ish propaganda campaigns organized by Kurdish supporters in many foreign countries, and a wave of PKK bombings at popular tourist sites, have cost the country billions of dollars...

...Within weeks the Constitutional Court closed the DEP, and the deputies who did not flee the country were jailed on charges of spreading separatist propaganda...

...And exactly what do the Kurds want...

...All signs point to the RP's continued growth, at least so long as the poor— mainly from traditional Anatolian villages—keep streaming into the sprawling shantytowns that surround virtually every big city...

...The conflict has taken the lives of over 15,000 people, has led to the destruction of nearly 1,500 villages, and so far has cost the state an estimated $8 billion...

...Among other things, it bans political activity by labor groups and gives final say on most internal security matters—including the Kurdish war—to the military-dominated National Security Council...

...Six were sentenced last December to prison terms ranging from three to 15 years...

...At the top of the pack would be Turkey's fastest growing political force, the pro-Islamic Welfare Party (RP), with approximately 23 per cent of the vote...

...Particularly appealing to the increasingly chauvinistic electorate is his ongoing criticism of Turkey's role in the U.S...

...Some are demanding a separate state...

...Dozens of DYP deputies, among them Parliament Speaker Husamettin Cindoruk...

...The President apparently feels a strong Centrist government that linked the DYP with the like-minded ANAP, founded by Ozal, would forestall the rise of extremist parties and reduce the ever-lurking threat of a military coup...

...The Army has been an enforcer of secularist pillars since the days of Atatiirk...

...tions and a broader Center-Right coalition...

...Or else it might head a coalition with ANAP, given that party's significant Islamic wing...

...But the Left never recovered its dynamism after the 1980 military coup...

...They have been mushrooming since the '60s, and once were the strongholds of Leftists who made many of the same promises...

...Ciller has attempted to blame the faltering economy on the late Turgut Ozal, whose spending and borrowing in the late 1980s when he headed the regime led to today's $64 billion foreign debt...

...campaign to isolate Iraq, and his unwavering support for a Turkish-dominated Northern Cyprus...

...By year's end, more than 13 percentof urban workers were unemployed...

...Western governments and organizations such as the International Monetary Fund applauded the package...

...Those fears were raised a notch immediately after the March contests when RP leader Necmettin Erbakan revealed a Machiavellian lust for power...

...Ciller's free-market policies, often praised in Western circles, have not gone down well with a people increasingly impatient for change...

...Its 65 parliamentary seats could provide a broader base for cooperation...

...Indeed, the meager success of the Prime Minister's programs has stirred dissension within the ranks of her conservative True Path Party (DYP...

...In a country where there are 23 active parties—with 10 represented in Parliament—it is unlikely that any one of them will win a majority in a general election...

...The intervention did stabilize the collapsing lira and help reduce Turkey's annual trade deficit by about $8 billion last year, but it failed to jump-start the economy, which shrank 6 per cent...

...But he already has demanded a greater policymaking role than his predecessor, the SHP's Murat Karayalcin, enjoyed...

...Boyner favors immediate peace talks and "constitutional recognition of Kurdish identity," a primary demand of the insurgents...

...The political vacuum this cre-ated in the southeast is expected to be filled by RP candidates...

...In the year ahead the picture, and the fortunes of Tansu Ciller, could change—especially if she manages to get the economy out of reverse...

...His laissez-faire economics and stress on ending the Kurdish conflict have drawn a disparate mix of journalists, young businessmen, academics, Kurds, secularists, and Islamic fundamentalists to the YDH...

...Much of the party's money reportedly comes from sympathizers among the 2 million Turks living in Western Europe, as well as from Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries...

...Since becoming the first woman to assume this country's top political office in July 1993, she had been relentlessly upbeat, projecting a sunny confidence in her answers to triple digit inflation, a stalled economy and an intractable Kurdish insurgency in the southeast...

...On the other hand, Ciller's relations with Cetin, her first Foreign Minister, became strained after she humiliated him last year by sacking him while he was on a diplomatic mission in France...

...It belongs to Cem Boyn-er, a charismatic 40-year-old textile magnate who formed the New Democracy Movement (YDH) in December...

...He fully intends his party to be a major player in the next election, but much will depend on whether it can achieve sufficient name recognition during the relatively brief period before then...

...the Turks have come to see it as all pain, little gain...

...Her junior partner, the SHP, has joined forces with the smaller yet historically more important Republican People's Party (CHP) of Mustafa Kemal Atatiirk, modern Turkey's revered founder...

...have been distancing themselves from her because they don't think she can prevail in the next national election, which must be held by the autumn of 1996...

...RP leaders, trying hard to ease secularist concerns, frequently declare their commitment to democracy and the generally Western-type institutions of the 71 -year-old republic...

...In fact, efforts to strengthen democracy in this country remain hobbled by the Constitution the last junta drafted in 1982...

...It is the RP that is now winning adherents by building low-cost health clinics and distributing bread to the hungry...

...A number of SHP deputies refused to vote for her bills, hampering privatization and farm subsidy cutbacks...

...In addition, it is viewed as a vital prerequisite to full EU membership, a prime Turkish objective for more than 30 years...

...Parliament voted last year to lift the political immunity of 13 Kurdish Democracy Party (DEP) deputies considered supporters of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which for a decade has been fighting a war against the state...

...The question now," he told Parliament, "is not whether the Welfare Party can come to power...

...In the March '94 local elections, RP candidates stunned the secular majority by winning the mayoral races in Turkey's commercial and political capitals, Istanbul and Ankara...

...Following the course of her predecessors since the mid-'80s, Ciller has steadfastly refused to negotiate with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, known as "Apo...

...It is only how this will come about: peacefully, or with bloodshed...

...But as mounting criticism of her policies shows, suffering Turks want solutions, not excuses...

...The party's promises of economic relief, justice and religious morality speak to basic needs in Turkey's slums...

...by blending nationalist rhetoric with the traditional Leftist emphasis on human rights and labor protection...

...But to do so she must find a way out of the war with the PKK...

...Some point to the newest voice on the tumultuous political scene here as the one offering the best solutions to the country's problems...

...For according to the polls, if national elections were held today the DYP would receive roughly 18 per cent of the vote and come in third...

...Analysts here say it will gain, too, from the government's clampdown on Kurdish political groups in the poor, largely rural southeast...

...ASCETIN IS SURELY aware, he has considerable leverage...

...One good example is her response to the April '94 crisis triggered by a massive currency sell-oflf that caused a 28 per cent devaluation of the Turkish lira...

...If the government were able to reach a settlement with more moderate Kurdish leaders, would Apo call off his fighters in the mountains...

...Ciller is counting on this to unblock about $1 billion in aid and boost the export of textiles and other goods...

...And he continues to openly criticize the Prime Minister's approach to various difficult situations, like her slow reaction to the recent violence between Muslim sects...

...The Prime Minister and Turkish military leaders insist the war is close to being concluded on government terms...

...The government also failed to control inflation— currently running at about 130 percent— and fulfill its promises to restore the buying power of Turkish wage earners...

...Nationally, the party captured 19 per cent of the vote, more than double the share it garnered in the '89 local balloting...

...Many observers think this could enable the RP to assume power in 1996...