Eyeing the Elysee

...And he has admitted to clumsiness in trying to push through a lower pay scale for youngsters seeking their initial job...

...His "friend of 30 years," he charges, has reneged on a gentleman's agreement made after the RPR's 1993 electoral victory...

...No MATTER what Chirac may say on the campaign trail, Balladur's government has not been idle, especially in the area of internal security...

...Perhaps he thought a similar rocky experience would disqualify Balladur as a competitor in 1995...

...JANICE VALLS-RUSSELL writes about French and Spanish affairs for the NL...

...The proposal has been rejected as "a very dangerous idea" by Balladur's entourage, by other pro-European members of the RPR and by the party's ally, the Union for French Democracy (UDF...

...The second and perhaps more distressing problem concerns current investigations of financial improprieties in the upper echelons of the government...

...His criticism of the government has not been paying off, for every time Balladur dips in the polls, he dips too...

...If no one receives 50 per cent of the vote, as is virtually certain, the two front-runners will remain on the ballot for a second round a fortnight later...

...Chirac's initial challenge, though, is likely to come from his colleague in the RPR, Prime Minister Edouard Balladur...

...Lately, he has depicted the Prime Minister as a mere caretaker, marking time until the accession of a new president with new ideas...

...The first round of the election will be held April 23...

...He has said he will declare his intentions in January...

...Many here, moreover, considerthe first-round balloting a built-in primary, since it eliminates all except the two top contenders...

...About the European Union Chirac seems to be having second thoughts...

...But Mitterrand's declining health and Bahadur's unruffled pragmatism have made for a smooth relationship...

...The urbane Balladur, he reasons, is unprepared for a rough-and-ready campaign and will chicken out...

...He knows his chances of moving into the Elysee will hinge on his public record...

...In his view, France needs a broad Center-Right party, akin to the Conservatives in Britain or the Republicans in America...

...The first is France's double-digit unemployment rate (12.6 per cent in October...

...He has backed away from innovations that have drawn deep-seated popular resentment...

...Headmasters have been instructed to resist the intrusion of fundamentalists who are bullying French Muslim girls to wear the veil at school and calling for their exemption from "immoral" courses, such as music and biology-Balladur also has shown an ability to defuse more general social tensions...

...Henri Emmanuelli, the Socialists' present leader, faces trial in the coming months...

...Down the line Chirac will have to fend off the Socialists, victors in the last two Presidential contests, who are seeking a replacement for the ailing Francois Mitterrand...

...In 1988, the RPR and the UDF were split once more...

...Chirac has little room to maneuver, however...

...By running in 1981, Chirac contributed to Mitterrand's victory over the incumbent, Valery Giscard d'Estaing of the UDF...

...In 1992 he advocated passage-albeit not too enthusiastically-of the referendum on the Maastricht Treaty...

...Chirac hopes to nudge his way up by stumping the country as the only official candidate of importance...

...It is likely to cost Chirac votes in the Center...

...By mid-November, though, there were signs of disaffection when the candidate picked Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, whom the Assembly President dislikes, to head the RPR...

...others have gone so far as to vote against it, siding on occasion with the Socialists...

...Raymond Barre, who served as Prime Minister under Giscard d' Estaing and was the UDF's standard-bearer in '88, thinks primaries are ridiculous and refuses to be bound by their outcome...

...He attributes his 1988 defeat to the two previous years he spent uneasily as Prime Minister in "cohabitation" with Socialist President Mitterrand...

...An opponent of European Union, he debated the pros and cons of the treaty with Mitterrand on the eve of the '92 referendum, and the intelligence, subtlety and conviction of these two men made for amemorable exchange...

...The Socialists have been saying that it would be "better to have Chirac as president than Balladur," if their own candidate is beaten...

...In 1991, the RPR and the UDF actually agreed to hold a joint primary a lafrancaise prior to the '95 election...

...The truth, of course, is that the Left prefers Chirac for an adversary in the second round...

...Balladur, by contrast, is no Gaullist...

...On November 4 he jumped the gun, announcing that he would be the party's torchbearer in next spring's presidential election...

...With economic growth picking up, he may succeed by spring...

...Seguin, who best embodies the Gaullist blend of nationalism and concern for the common man, seemed to have cast his lot with Chirac-the better to manipulate him, cynics say...

...and November 4 is the Catholic feast-day of Saint Charles as well as the anniversary of de Gaulle's entry into the 1965 presidential race...

...Observers see in all this the influence of Philippe Seguin, President of the National Assembly...

...But Chirac and his supporters claim it is too late, and the acrimony grown too rife, for such an undertaking...

...This, as he tells it, had the former Finance Minister heading the government, while Chirac again sought residence in the Elysee Palace...

...Meanwhile, he insists, the existing Centrist formations must concur on a single presidential candidate or else lose the contest...

...References to le General pepper his speeches...

...Balladur has introduced a wide range of schemes, including tax incentives for employers, and has vowed to "stabilize" the situation by the end of December...

...Muslim fundamentalists accused of aiding Algeria's zealots have been rounded up, and in some cases expelled from France...

...Balladur's only hope is that voters will realize none of the mainstream parties have been spared...

...Reforms in education, the public sector and other areas would then be introduced gradually...

...de declared his candidacy in Lille, de Gaulle's birthplace...

...Although 100,000 new positions were created over the last 12 months, they have been soaked up by people who had quit looking for work but re-entered the job market because the country appears to be emerging from a yearlong recession...

...one is in jail, even though he has not been charged...

...Interior Minister Charles Pasqua believes apresidential primary the only way out of the present impasse...

...Indeed, there seems to be a tacit alliance between the two camps...

...The list of suspects could lengthen as judges probe the murky financial arrangements of political parties in the 1980s...

...Whatever Seguin's influence, there is no mistaking the Gaullist sentiment in Chirac's campaign...

...But then, the Centrist Union for French Democracy tends to favor Balladur...

...Running the country, he says, is his main job...

...The first six months of his presidency, says Chirac, would focus on drastic measures (which he does not specify) to resolve France's unemployment crisis...

...Yet at least two serious, high-profile problems are defying the Prime Minister's efforts to deal with them...

...Three ministers have resigned...

...Given his low rating in the opinion polls, Chirac apparently felt he needed a head start to remove Balladur from his path to the second round...

...So all one can say for certain at the moment is that the Center's vote will be vital to those who are eyeing the Elysee...

...The other declared candidates-three Greens, two Marxists, and a far-Right tubthumper-represent peripheral elements, making Chirac look like a 10-yearold in a toddlers' race...

...Similarly, in recent weeks the President has been lauding the experience and moderation of Raymond Barre, broadly hinting he would make an excellent UDF candidate...

...The decision itself was no surprise, but the timing cast a revealing light on the rivalries within France's Center-Right majority...

...To add to the Prime Minister's troubles, Chirac's friends in the Senate and National Assembly are discreetly trying to undermine him...

...Some have taken to criticizing the government on points of procedure...

...Now, without stating his own position, he proposes a second referendum on the treaty's monetary provisions, due to be phased in at the end of the century...

...Ever since taking office, the Prime Minister has enjoyed a fair ride at the top of the polls...

...He did not join the RPR until the 1980s...

...The picture will change, of course, when more serious contenders throw their chapeaux into the ring...

...Balladur affects indifference on the issue...

...Mitterrand himself has praised Chirac of late and belittled Balladur...