Peace Prospects in Ulster

...A "gray interim period" will lead "to clashes between Catholic and Protes?tant mobs [in Belfast], and these in turn to the breakdown of both the cease-fires...

...Meanwhile, to encourage this outcome, badly needed investment has begun pour?ing in from the United States, Japan, indi?vidual European countries, and the Euro?pean Union...

...Some have suggested independence as a solution to the dilemma of Northern Irish sovereignty...

...If the current political condition persisted and there was no democratic alternative," he declared, "the Irish people have the right to continue the conflict...

...By preserving NORMAN GELB reports regularly for THE NEW LEADER on British affairs...

...The British Army and the Royal Ulster Constabulary have curtailed armed patrols...

...Neither the Irish Republican Army (IRA) nor the Protestant paramilitaries, the Ulster Freedom Fighters and the Ulster Volunteer Force, have shown the faintest sign that they are ready to give ground on the issue, or will be at any time in the future...

...Yet if the situation is more hopeful than could have been imagined a few months ago, there is still a long way to go before differences between the province's Prot?estant majority and Catholic minority are resolved...

...Moreover, the Downing Street Declaration, an agreement the British and Irish governments struck last De?cember, effectively precludes a constitu?tional change without the consent of the Protestant majority...

...An overwhelming majority in Britain is profoundly weary of the Ul?ster dispute and the massive cost it has im?posed for so long on the taxpayer, while domestic public services??notably health, education and crime control??have been forced to skimp...

...That they would accede to more fundamental changes is highly unlikely...

...The Protestants are keep?ing theirs as well...

...He does not be?lieve the IRA has abandoned its goal of unification...

...Is A RETURN to violence inevitable...

...Contrary to the impression left by Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams during his visits to the United States, the IRA's primary aim is not the removal of British troops from Northern Ireland...

...The IRA's objective in initiating the cease-fire is less easy to fathom...

...Peace has never been high on its agenda...

...The IRA has retained its formidable arsenal of guns and explosives...

...A guerrilla organization, it was formed to achieve by armed action what could not be achieved by other means...

...Perhaps not...

...Prime Minister John Major had been reluctant to proceed with the peace pro?cess until he received verbal assurance from the Republicans that their cease-fire is permanent...

...Leaving aside the ques?tion of economic viability, the proposal does not account for the Protestants 'fierce determination to remain British subjects, nor for their suspicion that independence would be a prelude to annexation by Ire?land...

...The government would encounter strong Parliamentary resistance to sending the troops back into the Irish quagmire...

...In no way does the cease-fire advance that cause...

...unfortu?nately, both are prepared for the worst...

...For then, British historian John Keegan notes, the nationalists' years of "'armed struggle' will have counted for nothing...

...AMID THE SUSPICION Peace Prospects Ulster BY NORMAN GELB LONDON THE CEASE-FIRE now being ob?served by terrorist organiza?tions on both sides of Northern Ireland's sectarian divide has totally trans?formed the atmosphere of that troubled province...

...Between them, the com?batants have murdered more than 3,000 civilians and soldiers since "The Trou?bles" began...

...Most people in Northern Ireland would be delighted if the two sides mere?ly debated the point indefinitely...

...The hard-liners would then find themselves with little choice but to continue the search for a mutually acceptable settlement...

...it is the unification of Ireland...

...Members of paramilitary groups, who just weeks ago were inclined to slaughter each other, are today willing to confer on terms for discussing an abid?ing peace...

...Mitchell McLaughlin, northern chairman of the Sinn Fein, has made that much clear...

...In a further guaran?tee, Prime Minister John Major recently promised to hold a referendum on the final settlement...

...The Protestants, for all their unexpect?ed support of the peace effort, are skepti?cal about its outcome too...

...Martin McGuinness, a senior figure in the Sinn Fein, the group's political wing, says he would be "laughed out of the room" if he suggested to IRA chieftains that they give up their arms...

...Conor Cruise O'Brien takes such cau?tionary words seriously...

...The IRA's refusal to sur?render its arms might nevertheless have made the paramilitaries wary of a truce...

...They probably would not object to the creation of an elected provincial govern?ment, inferior to the British crown, with authority to take up Catholic grievances of discrimination in employment and housing...

...The motive of the Protestant paramil?itaries is fairly obvious...

...their "martyrs," celebrated in stirring song and verse, will have died in vain...

...Catholic representation in a largely impotent regional administration would hardly satisfy the militants...

...And each side continues to maintain that its cause is just and its tac?tics justifiable, raising the question of why they agreed to a suspension of hos?tilities in the first place...

...The loyalists no longer oppose nego?tiations between representatives of the Protestant and Catholic communities...

...The cease-fire has add?ed a new and important element to the conflict: Everyone is immensely re?lieved that, after 25 years, the climate of anxiety enshrouding the province has been lifted...

...but retaining their own arms has kept them on an equal footing...

...Thus they are worried that a protracted cease-fire will lead the British government??with its Armed Forces already trimmed by bud?get cuts??to sharply reduce the number of troops in Northern Ireland, and to quit the province altogether if sectarian strife is resumed...

...Rather, he views the ceasefire it has inspired as the opening gambit in a calculated strategy: first to gain sig?nificant political concessions, and if that is not forthcoming, to justify picking up the gun once more...

...Civic and church leaders have embarked on a cam?paign for mutual tolerance and under?standing as well...

...The hope is that a reduc?tion in Northern Ireland's high rate of unemployment will contribute to de?fusing the hatred that, at one large engi?neering firm in Belfast, still makes it ad?visable for Protestant and Catholic work?ers to use separate entrances...

...In fact, the resumption of ter?rorism may come to seem so grotesque that outraged resistance in both the Catho?lic and Protestant communities would make it untenable...

...For the first time in more than two decades, the people are experienc?ing life without the debilitating fear that they might be gunned down in their homes or in the street because of their religion, or blown up in a random bombing of a pub or shop...

...Adams, the London Daily Telegraph recently pointed out, "has to demonstrate to IRA doubters that there is something worthwhile" in the peace undertaking...

...That would leave the nation?alists (aided by their fellow patriots across the border) and the loyalists to settle their differences in what may be the bloodiest phase of the conflict...

...Even the hardest of the "hard men" among the paramilitaries are reported to be positively affected by the warmth of the public's response to their giving peace a chance...

...The cease-fire rests on what former Dublin government minister Conor Cruise O'Brien describes as fundamen?tally "opposing and incompatible as?sumptions...

...Against the odds, the truce could gradually metamorphose into a lasting peace...

...The crux of the matter is the constitutional status of Northern Ire?land??whether it will remain a part of the United Kingdom, as Protestant loyalists insist, or be absorbed into the Republic of Ireland, as Catholic nationalists wish...

...This precludes leaving the field of battle without meaningful trophies...

...indeed, it appears to militate against it...

...They might also accept the for?mation of joint Irish and Northern Irish consultative groups...

...They never gave it to him...

...With investment comes the prospect of jobs...

...The IRA,' in O'Brien's scenario, "will not proceed from the present cessation of military operations to a straightforward resump?tion...

...But by the seventh week of their exhibit?ing total restraint despite numerous Prot?estant provocations, he decided their ac?tions had proved "more compelling than their words" and announced that multi?lateral "exploratory talks" might take place before year's end...

...Northern Ireland's relationship with the UK, the cease-fire provides exactly what they want...