Canada's Political Earthquake

...Since these are national issues, even if articulated in a regional context, he could prove to be the real opposition, overshadowing Bouchard...

...his positions, in contrast to Bourassa's, are not tempered by ambiguities...

...Whatever issues Chretien tackles in his first year, the Quebec question will be lurking in the background—and Bouchard will be doing everything possible to move it to the forefront...

...Manning's main preoccupation, naturally, is his own region, where deep resentment of the established parties and their policies is manifest...

...He prefers to devote himself to explaining the current separatist position and persuading English Canadians that they, too, would be better off if Quebec were an independent state...

...Of the two large regional formations, the BQ is exclusively interested in Quebec issues, while Reform's capacity to carry off the classic role is limited by its not having gained substantial backing outside of the two westernmost provinces...

...He is Daniel Johnson, son and brother of two earlier Quebec prime ministers...

...The big surprise was not that the revitalized Liberal Party under Jean Chretien achieved an impressive majority in the 295-seat House of Commons...

...In particular, he managed to bring together Westerners, who had been alienated by what they perceived as excessive government responsiveness to the needs of Central Canada (i.e...

...It may not be held until next fall...

...Mulroney did win successive comfortable majorities, a rare feat for a Conservative...

...He could also argue that if Bouchard, who has operated at the Federal level for some time, is allowed to participate in Quebec's great debate, the PM should have the same right...

...Headed by Mulroney's erstwhile colleague Lucien Bouchard, it views itself as the vanguard that will soften up English Canada and make the idea of Quebec separation (accompanied by some sort of association, no doubt) more palatable...

...An undeniable contributing factor was the very poor campaign conducted by Campbell, who lost her own seat in Vancouver and is retiring without having been in Parliament long enough (six years) to qualify for the pension so many of her fellow Tories will enjoy...

...But he is handicapped by a lack of popularity in Quebec, where his brand of federalism is considered dated (he was repeatedly denounced as "yesterday's man" during the campaign), and by a local tradition that Federal politicians should leave provincial affairs to the provincial politicians...

...it had been evident for a month that the Liberals would win, although the fear was that they would have to head a minority government...

...The Tories received only about half the percentage of votes a losing major party would be expected to get...

...There is, however, no real opposition party in the sense of a potential alternative to the Liberals...

...Nevertheless...

...Ontarians, convinced that their economic malaise is due to free trade, gave 98 of their 99 seats to the Liberals...

...a sorry performance indeed...

...Rather, what no one anticipated was the political earthquake that rearranged—to put it mildly—the other four parties in the race...

...Still, following his predecessors, he has hedged the idea of full independence by adding a number of provisions for economic ties (such as a common currency...

...As of now, most pundits think the PQ will win the provincial balloting...

...The Bloc Quebecois only functions on the national level...

...The Liberals opposed free trade with the U.S...

...But the appointment of more moderate members of the party caucus to key economic ministries, in order to calm financial markets jittery about increased spending propelling the deficit to new heights and stimulating inflation, is a restricting factor...

...His most effective course of action, aside from doing something for the province's very weak economy, would be to demonstrate systematically and repeatedly how much Quebec benefits from being part of the Federal system...

...After a mid-November meeting in Seattle with President Bill Clinton, he settled for some further studies to clarify certain ground rules...

...But there is a lot of skepticism about their ability to win the promised referendum...

...Manning would like nothing better, for he is convinced that Reform is on track to becoming the majority party, possibly as early as the next election...

...As for relations with the U.S...

...But after prolonged exposure to Bouchard and his BQ colleagues, the logic of Manning's position could very well lead him to the conclusion that if Quebec cannot be happy as an equal member of the federation, then maybe it should go...

...In any event, the Quebec voters apparently will have a clear choice in 1994...

...He is certainly in a position to govern...

...In the case of trade, the Prime Minister has already downgraded his threats to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA...

...Whether Manning, the son of a former prime minister of Alberta, can maintain that image in Ottawa will be a crucial factor in determining his impact there...

...A minimum of 12 is necessary for official party status in the House, and failing to secure that will complicate PCP and NDP efforts to rebuild and remain in public view...

...The PQ, led by Jacques Parizeau, maintains that Quebec is stifled within Canada and cannot have the kind of society it wants without sovereignty...

...Chretien is likely to be more aloof than Mulroney, who prided himself on his friendships with American Presidents...

...Chretien will have to find a way to deliver on his jobs promise (he targeted the public works sector, including repair of the infrastructure) within the limits set by a responsible fiscal policy...

...What is not clear is who is in charge of the script...

...Where does alI this leave Canada...

...generally...

...177 House seats and representation from every province, the Liberals have regained their status as a national political force, despite a weak contingent from Prime Minister Chretien's home province of Quebec...

...He is therefore sure to utilize the opportunities the Commons affords him to spell out in detail exactly how his ideas differ from the Prime Minister's...

...According to established practice, the BQ, with the second biggest contingent in the House, will be what is technically referred to as Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition—a real contradiction in terms for a party whose raison d'etre is to achieve independence for Quebec...

...He campaigned against politics-as-usual, but once he takes his seat in Parliament, he will find himself constrained by the elaborate institutional rules of the legislative body...

...Unhappiness with the fact that the Meech Lake and Char-lottetown accords were rejected because of their concessions to Quebec, together with a feeling that the governing provincial Liberals are tired after eight years in office, has put the PQ ahead in the early polls, but a definite date for the election has yet to be set...

...The PQ shares the objectives of the BQ, has been around since 1968, and held power from 1976 to 1985...

...the opposition parties can annoy him and get a lot of publicity for themselves, but there is little that they can do without power...

...Indeed, the '94 election is shaping up as a contest between sharply different views of what is good for the province...

...Ultimately, though, he was unable to satisfy either the Westerners or the Quebecers and they withdrew, leaving Camp-bell with no realistic route to survival...

...He was an opponent of the unsuccessful Meech Lake and Charlottetown agreements of 1987 and 1992, respectively, because they were based on a concept of "asymmetrical federalism"—that is, of providing special status for Quebec...

...Prime Minister Robert Bourassa, a master of subtlety and finesse when it comes to constitutional questions, is retiring for health reasons...

...Nor is he an exciting personality...

...Thus a significant consequence of the October election is that it has left Canada's party system in tatters and virtually assured a perpetual battle in the Commons between the rest of the country and Quebec...

...Much farther east, the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) was dominant in the one province where it ran, winning 54 of 75 seats...

...Chretien's government, which has been honing its policy options for almost a decade in opposition, is committed to job creation and reviving the economy in the short run...

...The second step is a Parti Quebecois (PQ) victory in the 1994 provincial election...

...If the PQ wins next year, it is committed to the third step, holding a referendum on independence in 1995...

...Given the season, one is tempted to answer: "Out in the cold...

...in the 1988 election because they feared it would lead to an outflow of jobs in inefficient sectors of the economy...

...Harold M. Waller, a frequent contributor to The New Leader, is professor of political science and Associate Dean of Arts at McGill University...

...If his performance is impressive over the next few years, he could gain the support of additional conservatives in the habit of voting PC...

...The "sovereignists," as the separatists now prefer to style themselves, envision a three-step process toward the achievement of their goal...

...The Reform Party garnered 52 seats, almost all of them in British Columbia and Alberta...

...This was a bizarre combination, but with help from voters in Ontario and the Mar-itimes...

...Ontario and Quebec), and nationalist Quebecers, who had been alienated by what they perceived as insufficient government support for their agenda of more powers for the province...

...Mulroney, confronted with a Liberal hegemony that had existed for most of the century, carefully constructed a coalition designed to embrace elements that had been kept at arm's length in the past...

...Chretien and perhaps Bouchard probably will watch from a distance when the PQ and the Quebec Liberals fight it out next year...

...Led by Prime Minister Kim Campbell, who took over from the faltering Brian Mulroney last June, the PCs suffered the most humiliating defeat in the history of this country's Federal elections, losing 154 of their previous 156 House seats...

...The Quebec Liberal Party is in transition...

...Chretien could still take the initiative and show through the actions of his government that Quebec's needs can be met within the Canadian federation...

...Two veteran contestants, the Progressive Conservative Party (PCP) and the New Democratic Party (NDP), were nearly wiped off the electoral map...

...Bouchard may find an unintentional ally in Reform leader Preston Manning, who objects to treating Quebec any differently than the other provinces...

...He advocates ending the country's spending spree and balancing the budget, lowering taxes whenever possible, shrinking the size of government, abandoning much of its bilin-gualism policy, cutting back immigration, and de-emphasizing multicultural-ism...

...The BQ claims it is interested in a variety of issues—trade, the economy, the budget, and so forth—but it will not have much influence in such areas until it rises above the parochialism of looking at all policy matters from the perspective of a single province...

...Since neither the BQ nor the Reformers had run before, their accomplishments were a stinging rebuke to the traditional parties, particularly the Tories...

...Assuming that the other 48 per cent of the voters were antiseparatist, the potential Yes vote in a referendum would appear to be around the same 40 per cent recorded in the 1980 referendum...

...Johnson is clearly a federalist...

...Should the referendum pass, the sovereignists expect Quebec to be independent shortly thereafter...

...Two new regional competitors did extraordinarily well...

...Should nafta actually have adverse consequences for Canada, Chretien could have trouble within his caucus...

...The NDP fared only slightly better, dropping from 43 to nine seats...

...Chretien, as the Prime Minister of Canada, will of course bear a major responsibility for trying to thwart the sovereignty scenario...

...So their verbal sparring in the Commons on the subject of sovereignty is likely to be little more than a distracting sideshow...

...The measure of Chretien's skill will be his ability to avoid becoming bogged down in endless jousting with the BQ, and to concentrate instead on reviving a languishing economy that is facing stiff challenges from freer trade with the United States and Mexico...

...The Reform leader's low-key, down-home demeanor appeals to many people disposed to someone who does not seem to be a politician...

...Both served as vehicles for protest, attracting those who had supported the PCP in the victories former Prime Minister Mulroney fashioned in 1984 and 1988...

...Bouchard says he wants to be a credible Opposition Leader, yet is reluctant to get too involved in Canadian affairs...

...In practically every instance his approach runs counter to Chretiens...

...A leadership convention is scheduled to take place in January, with only one candidate of any consequence running...

...With 43 per cent of the vote...

...The first of these was the BQ victory in Quebec (with roughly 52 per cent of the vote) in the Federal election...

...This suggests he has his party's economic nationalists under control...

...For a party that antedates Canada itself such a disaster could prove fatal—but it should be noted that the voting system here magnifies shifts in public preferences, especially when the field is crowded...

...Although the BQ received 52 per cent of Quebec's vote on a separatist platform, political observers here agree that a portion of its electorate consisted of protesters who do not support the separatist option...

...The Prime Minister has to try to help the federalist cause in Quebec without being too open about it, lest he offend local sensibilities...

...During the campaign he made it eminently clear that he hopes Canada will remain whole...

...On a more serious note, one would respond that Canada is once again confronting existential questions, at least in the political realm, with the replay of a by now old story featuring a new cast...